Professional Documents
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INDONESIA
1. UJI REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA
Dependent Variable: INFLASI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/15 Time: 11:05
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
120.1773
0.407043
0.618704
8.709417
-7.686864
102.0543
0.103133
0.175524
2.191187
4.475975
1.177582
3.946779
3.524900
3.974749
-1.717361
0.2496
0.0005
0.0016
0.0005
0.0978
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.781642
0.748048
4.815123
602.8207
-89.98540
23.26756
0.000000
9.925012
9.592867
6.128090
6.359379
6.203485
1.439236
2. UJI MULTIKOL
GMS
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-169.5462
0.920431
0.038632
-11.67665
10.67686
153.9536
0.233211
0.320782
3.494300
6.786566
-1.101281
3.946779
0.120431
-3.341629
1.573235
0.2809
0.0005
0.9051
0.0025
0.1278
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
0.658469
0.605926
7.240740
1363.136
-102.6322
12.53194
0.000008
21.08860
11.53437
6.944014
7.175302
7.019408
1.932246
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
115.1664
0.522634
0.014432
-1.325555
-3.655813
93.57871
0.148269
0.119832
2.540205
4.281261
1.230691
3.524900
0.120431
-0.521830
-0.853910
0.2295
0.0016
0.9051
0.6062
0.4010
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.662129
0.610148
4.425526
509.2173
-87.36985
12.73809
0.000007
14.41043
7.087863
5.959345
6.190634
6.034740
0.861635
ER
Dependent Variable: LN_ER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/15 Time: 12:07
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
-28.91842
0.043398
-0.025730
-0.007819
1.438330
4.743462
0.010918
0.007700
0.014984
0.177718
-6.096480
3.974749
-3.341629
-0.521830
8.093326
0.0000
0.0005
0.0025
0.6062
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.873454
0.853985
0.339897
3.003775
-7.808276
44.86467
0.000000
8.319721
0.889506
0.826340
1.057629
0.901735
0.749481
GNI
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
21.97267
-0.013254
0.588403
0.007717
37.34289
-1.717361
0.0000
0.0978
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
0.008141
-0.007462
0.497697
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.832106
0.806276
0.199940
1.039380
8.641031
32.21495
0.000000
0.005175
0.008739
0.061495
1.573235
-0.853910
8.093326
0.1278
0.4010
0.0000
26.04598
0.454265
-0.234905
-0.003617
-0.159511
0.411137
3. UJI NORMALITAS
12
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
10
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
8
6
4
Jarque-Bera 0.481600
Probability
0.785999
2
0
-10.0
-1.91e-14
0.311054
9.506229
-9.381810
4.482636
-0.267831
3.293118
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Hal 5.39
4. UJI HETERO
CT
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
5.974001
26.02188
20.98739
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/15 Time: 12:37
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Prob. F(14,16)
Prob. Chi-Square(14)
Prob. Chi-Square(14)
0.0005
0.0257
0.1020
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
GMS^2
GMS*DIR
GMS*LN_ER
GMS*LN_GNI
DIR
DIR^2
DIR*LN_ER
DIR*LN_GNI
LN_ER
LN_ER^2
LN_ER*LN_GNI
LN_GNI
LN_GNI^2
121848.4
481.4587
0.128657
-0.412253
8.784771
-21.22760
-202.4091
-0.119969
-5.955234
10.09130
7563.730
89.54623
-350.1711
-11986.98
290.4439
64927.91
141.2879
0.072012
0.153688
2.850683
6.229438
119.2280
0.123751
3.052167
5.421844
2814.965
42.37440
130.8298
5779.324
129.5220
1.876673
3.407643
1.786596
-2.682396
3.081637
-3.407626
-1.697665
-0.969440
-1.951150
1.861231
2.686971
2.113215
-2.676538
-2.074115
2.242429
0.0789
0.0036
0.0930
0.0164
0.0071
0.0036
0.1089
0.3468
0.0688
0.0812
0.0162
0.0506
0.0165
0.0546
0.0395
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.839415
0.698904
16.42526
4316.628
-120.4989
5.974001
0.000530
19.44583
29.93366
8.741862
9.435726
8.968044
2.479665
nonct
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
10.77822
19.33792
15.59658
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.0000
0.0007
0.0036
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/15 Time: 12:38
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
DIR^2
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
518.3257
0.042586
-0.075846
0.895411
-0.834857
199.2891
0.007731
0.021615
0.532073
0.338460
2.600874
5.508193
-3.508911
1.682873
-2.466635
0.0151
0.0000
0.0017
0.1044
0.0205
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.623804
0.565928
19.72155
10112.43
-133.6939
10.77822
0.000028
19.44583
29.93366
8.947991
9.179279
9.023385
1.518708
Nilai koefiisien determinasi (R2) sebesar 0.623. nilai Chi square hitung sebesar 19.34
diperoleh dari informasi Obs*R square yaitu jumlah observasi dikalikan dengan
koefisian determinasi. Sedangkan nilai kritis Chi Square pada alpha = 5% dengan df
sebesar 30 adalah 43.77. dengan demikian, nilai chi square hitung lebih kecil dari
nilai kritis chi squares maka dapat disimpulkan tidak ada masalah heterokedastisitas.
Widarjono 129
5. UJI AUTO
UJI BG
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.622173
3.691582
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.2184
0.1579
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/15 Time: 17:06
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
12.75009
0.083906
-0.093460
0.574956
-0.689600
0.291191
-0.313695
99.94747
0.111680
0.183914
2.169929
4.389711
0.206410
0.218355
0.127568
0.751306
-0.508173
0.264965
-0.157095
1.410738
-1.436627
0.8996
0.4598
0.6160
0.7933
0.8765
0.1712
0.1637
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Winarno 5.30
0.119083
-0.101146
4.703876
531.0349
-88.02012
0.540724
0.772006
-1.91E-14
4.482636
6.130330
6.454134
6.235882
1.864438
THAILAND
1. REGRESI
Dependent Variable: INFLASI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/17/15 Time: 23:04
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-49.69010
0.147987
0.235897
-1.691263
2.141229
23.82403
0.085949
0.156347
2.639910
0.958107
-2.085714
1.721798
1.508807
-0.640652
2.234853
0.0470
0.0970
0.1434
0.5274
0.0342
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.331489
0.228641
1.769451
81.40487
-58.95154
3.223102
0.028278
3.450117
2.014700
4.125906
4.357194
4.201300
1.963524
2. MULTIKOL
GMS
Dependent Variable: GMS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/17/15 Time: 23:21
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
147.4282
0.691629
0.459610
-17.36003
-3.220391
47.54489
0.401690
0.340765
4.636134
2.171513
3.100820
1.721798
1.348761
-3.744505
-1.483018
0.0046
0.0970
0.1890
0.0009
0.1501
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
Dependent Variable: DIR
0.706094
0.660877
3.825282
380.4523
-82.85138
15.61589
0.000001
12.84560
6.568784
5.667831
5.899119
5.743225
2.115500
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
39.97161
0.341287
0.142278
6.116920
-2.104815
29.95164
0.226196
0.105488
2.966938
1.188618
1.334538
1.508807
1.348761
2.061695
-1.770809
0.1936
0.1434
0.1890
0.0494
0.0883
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.310243
0.204127
2.128320
117.7734
-64.67612
2.923610
0.040261
10.26815
2.385696
4.495233
4.726522
4.570627
1.269138
ER
Dependent Variable: LN_ER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/17/15 Time: 23:31
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
-0.019239
-0.009189
-0.020181
0.022971
0.137379
1.897281
0.014343
0.005390
0.011142
0.072247
-0.010140
-0.640652
-3.744505
2.061695
1.901519
0.9920
0.5274
0.0009
0.0494
0.0684
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.664690
0.613104
0.130425
0.442279
21.88482
12.88505
0.000007
3.429905
0.209684
-1.089343
-0.858055
-1.013949
1.225578
GNI
Dependent Variable: LN_GNI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/17/15 Time: 23:33
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
23.03603
0.075257
-0.024218
-0.051133
0.888708
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.696044
0.033674
0.016330
0.028876
0.467367
0.543485
0.473252
0.331728
2.861123
-7.054112
7.738313
0.000302
13.58221
2.234853
-1.483018
-1.770809
1.901519
0.0000
0.0342
0.1501
0.0883
0.0684
25.50772
0.457067
0.777685
1.008973
0.853079
0.721423
3. UJI ORMALITAS
12
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
10
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
8
6
4
-3.20e-15
-0.082108
4.786961
-4.189571
1.647269
0.165067
4.652133
Jarque-Bera 3.666439
Probability
0.159898
2
0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
4. UJI HETERO
5.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
1.321217
5.236745
6.726690
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.2884
0.2639
0.1511
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:10
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
DIR^2
2.062546
-0.006134
0.037299
33.45304
0.007718
0.023193
0.061655
-0.794863
1.608187
0.9513
0.4339
0.1199
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.668204
-0.015665
0.168927
0.041070
4.995462
648.8207
-91.12522
1.321217
0.288351
0.954903
0.052790
0.699761
-0.296748
0.4903
0.7690
2.625963
5.101316
6.201627
6.432915
6.277021
2.375123
6. UJI AUTO
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
0.129220
0.330263
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.8794
0.8478
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:12
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
0.028543
0.005089
-0.016115
0.107808
-0.011708
0.013277
0.104235
24.66911
0.089562
0.165733
2.741288
0.992233
0.203820
0.207669
0.001157
0.056816
-0.097235
0.039327
-0.011800
0.065140
0.501930
0.9991
0.9552
0.9233
0.9690
0.9907
0.9486
0.6203
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.010654
-0.236683
1.831866
80.53761
-58.78552
0.043073
0.999597
-3.20E-15
1.647269
4.244227
4.568031
4.349779
1.994862
KORSEL
REGRESI
Dependent Variable: INFLASI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:16
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-34.91804
0.020889
0.566981
-5.447640
2.653798
22.36901
0.021709
0.160205
1.975678
0.930399
-1.561000
0.962255
3.539098
-2.757352
2.852324
0.1306
0.3448
0.0015
0.0105
0.0084
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.514643
0.439972
1.557027
63.03267
-54.98692
6.892199
0.000638
4.058389
2.080614
3.870124
4.101412
3.945518
1.660530
1. UJI MULTIKOL
2.
Dependent Variable: GMS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:17
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-27.99946
1.646201
0.913064
36.62673
-8.129662
207.5994
1.710774
1.721886
18.59985
9.328526
-0.134873
0.962255
0.530270
1.969195
-0.871484
0.8938
0.3448
0.6004
0.0597
0.3915
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
Dependent Variable: DIR
Method: Least Squares
0.199304
0.076120
13.82211
4967.317
-122.6751
1.617935
0.199660
16.56747
14.38025
8.237106
8.468394
8.312500
1.746640
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
93.07495
0.573418
0.011718
2.342121
-3.853281
14.84218
0.162024
0.022098
2.211562
0.760491
6.270975
3.539098
0.530270
1.059035
-5.066831
0.0000
0.0015
0.6004
0.2993
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.735924
0.695297
1.565840
63.74825
-55.16189
18.11415
0.000000
7.315806
2.836673
3.881412
4.112701
3.956807
0.929356
ER
Dependent Variable: LN_ER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:18
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
-1.288673
-0.041533
0.003543
0.017656
0.300291
2.026959
0.015063
0.001799
0.016672
0.072088
-0.635767
-2.757352
1.969195
1.059035
4.165622
0.5305
0.0105
0.0597
0.2993
0.0003
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.637156
0.581334
0.135954
0.480569
20.59788
11.41404
0.000018
6.863131
0.210115
-1.006315
-0.775027
-0.930921
1.248530
GNI
Dependent Variable: LN_GNI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:19
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
18.57067
0.089809
2.292652
0.031486
8.100083
2.852324
0.0000
0.0084
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
-0.003491
-0.128938
1.332922
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.769311
0.733821
0.286433
2.133134
-2.502972
21.67652
0.000000
0.004006
0.025447
0.319981
-0.871484
-5.066831
4.165622
0.3915
0.0000
0.0003
27.08204
0.555182
0.484063
0.715351
0.559457
0.689731
3. UJI NORMA
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
4
3
2
1.09e-14
0.155874
3.042089
-2.947256
1.449513
0.090941
2.281686
Jarque-Bera 0.709198
Probability
0.701455
1
0
-3
-2
-1
4. UJI HETERO
5.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.999282
4.130760
1.862107
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.4257
0.3886
0.7611
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:21
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
DIR^2
-15.93929
-0.000108
0.027836
15.53363
0.000354
0.014444
-1.026115
-0.304899
1.927184
0.3143
0.7629
0.0650
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.008130
0.021716
0.133250
-0.000096
2.340108
142.3787
-67.61689
0.999282
0.425735
0.217298
0.025557
0.037415
0.849706
0.9704
0.4032
2.033312
2.339995
4.684961
4.916249
4.760355
1.873146
6. UJI AUTO
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
0.360947
0.905218
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.7007
0.6360
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:22
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-2.209955
0.006293
0.019757
0.361293
-0.019488
0.188152
0.032752
23.09225
0.024781
0.165978
2.131189
0.966258
0.222728
0.236736
-0.095701
0.253930
0.119032
0.169526
-0.020168
0.844762
0.138349
0.9246
0.8017
0.9062
0.8668
0.9841
0.4066
0.8911
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.029201
-0.213499
1.596769
61.19208
-54.52757
0.120316
0.992883
1.09E-14
1.449513
3.969521
4.293324
4.075072
1.935715
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
198.1998
0.755444
0.420977
13.81706
-12.40988
121.8178
0.123105
0.209515
2.615524
5.342777
1.627018
6.136566
2.009292
5.282712
-2.322740
0.1158
0.0000
0.0550
0.0000
0.0283
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.818885
0.791021
5.747603
858.9084
-95.47306
29.38881
0.000000
11.92392
12.57291
6.482133
6.713421
6.557527
1.686289
MULTIKOL
GMS
Dependent Variable: GMS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:30
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-193.6941
0.783068
0.067524
-13.21033
12.07014
124.5205
0.127607
0.228893
2.826714
5.488673
-1.555519
6.136566
0.295002
-4.673387
2.199100
0.1319
0.0000
0.7703
0.0001
0.0370
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
0.776933
0.742615
5.851743
890.3154
-96.02972
22.63926
0.000000
21.08860
11.53437
6.518046
6.749335
6.593440
1.779016
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
164.3928
0.319277
0.049405
-0.284270
-5.853731
106.5883
0.158900
0.167473
3.279341
4.982335
1.542315
2.009292
0.295002
-0.086685
-1.174897
0.1351
0.0550
0.7703
0.9316
0.2507
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.567781
0.501286
5.005429
651.4122
-91.18700
8.538666
0.000154
14.41043
7.087863
6.205613
6.436901
6.281007
1.132636
ER
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
-25.80492
0.037467
-0.034558
-0.001016
1.321559
4.327330
0.007092
0.007395
0.011725
0.162153
-5.963243
5.282712
-4.673387
-0.086685
8.150085
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.9316
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.901878
0.886783
0.299299
2.329077
-3.865113
59.74423
0.000000
8.319721
0.889506
0.571943
0.803231
0.647337
0.968178
GNI
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
21.53679
-0.013848
0.012993
-0.008612
0.543818
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.845186
0.821368
0.191994
0.958408
9.898167
35.48580
0.000000
0.636267
0.005962
0.005908
0.007330
0.066725
33.84869
-2.322740
2.199100
-1.174897
8.150085
0.0000
0.0283
0.0370
0.2507
0.0000
26.04598
0.454265
-0.316011
-0.084723
-0.240617
0.470924
UJI NORM
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
8
7
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
6
5
4
3
2
-4.39e-14
0.336556
8.958299
-16.63499
5.350727
-0.847757
4.597358
Jarque-Bera 7.009001
Probability
0.030062
1
0
-15
-10
-5
10
HETERO
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
7.904880
17.01169
21.52407
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.0003
0.0019
0.0002
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:36
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
551.6618
0.073753
389.5073
0.015111
1.416307
4.880744
0.1686
0.0000
DIR^2
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
-0.125318
0.669703
-0.856187
0.548764
0.479343
38.54544
38629.53
-154.4678
7.904880
0.000262
0.042247
1.039927
0.661515
-2.966348
0.643990
-1.294282
0.0064
0.5252
0.2069
27.70672
53.41918
10.28824
10.51953
10.36364
1.797584
AUTO
0.801766
1.941509
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.4602
0.3788
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:37
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-0.506413
0.045586
-0.059713
0.129153
-0.024947
0.143189
-0.236859
122.9087
0.130540
0.216604
2.637685
5.388842
0.199794
0.210951
-0.004120
0.349215
-0.275677
0.048964
-0.004629
0.716685
-1.122815
0.9967
0.7300
0.7852
0.9614
0.9963
0.4805
0.2726
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.062629
-0.171713
5.791932
805.1156
-94.47057
0.267255
0.946840
-4.39E-14
5.350727
6.546489
6.870292
6.652040
1.977962
THAILAND
REGRESI
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-93.02830
0.184485
0.381219
3.140215
3.167457
37.35200
0.093641
0.169561
3.057374
1.348553
-2.490584
1.970129
2.248276
1.027095
2.348782
0.0195
0.0596
0.0333
0.3138
0.0267
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.364909
0.267203
2.034609
107.6305
-63.28020
3.734760
0.015706
3.474695
2.376781
4.405174
4.636462
4.480568
2.309942
MULTIKOL
GMS
Dependent Variable: GMS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:48
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
151.8235
0.704090
0.077304
-15.83616
-3.435374
75.55464
0.357383
0.361706
5.241853
2.821258
2.009452
1.970129
0.213722
-3.021099
-1.217675
0.0550
0.0596
0.8324
0.0056
0.2343
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
Dependent Variable: DIR
0.682670
0.633850
3.974795
410.7739
-84.03996
13.98339
0.000003
12.84560
6.568784
5.744513
5.975802
5.819908
2.115587
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
167.0481
0.426969
0.022686
-6.984275
-5.415287
29.36211
0.189909
0.106147
3.002989
1.158071
5.689242
2.248276
0.213722
-2.325775
-4.676127
0.0000
0.0333
0.8324
0.0281
0.0001
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.799286
0.768407
2.153235
120.5470
-65.03691
25.88445
0.000000
6.736102
4.474342
4.518510
4.749798
4.593904
0.720032
ER
Dependent Variable: LN_ER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:50
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
5.107139
0.012417
-0.016407
-0.024658
-0.052671
2.414487
0.012089
0.005431
0.010602
0.092791
2.115206
1.027095
-3.021099
-2.325775
-0.567631
0.0442
0.3138
0.0056
0.0281
0.5752
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.677343
0.627703
0.127941
0.425590
22.48102
13.64522
0.000004
3.429905
0.209684
-1.127808
-0.896520
-1.052414
0.957291
GNI
Dependent Variable: LN_GNI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:51
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
26.88279
0.055263
-0.015705
1.534100
0.023528
0.012897
17.52350
2.348782
-1.217675
0.0000
0.0267
0.2343
DIR
LN_ER
-0.084357
-0.232401
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.018040
0.409423
0.700377
0.654281
0.268746
1.877835
-0.527143
15.19390
0.000002
-4.676127
-0.567631
0.0001
0.5752
25.50772
0.457067
0.356590
0.587878
0.431984
0.679386
NORM
12
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
10
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
8
6
4
2.56e-14
-0.074429
3.838975
-5.924059
1.894118
-0.815334
4.712051
Jarque-Bera 7.220671
Probability
0.027043
2
0
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
HETERO
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.647214
2.807197
3.665052
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.6339
0.5906
0.4532
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:46
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
DIR^2
10.14473
-0.005106
0.015079
63.69612
0.010059
0.039136
0.159268
-0.507574
0.385289
0.8747
0.6160
0.7032
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.527882
-0.037847
0.090555
-0.049360
6.965670
1261.535
-101.4316
0.647214
0.633864
1.367130
0.090878
1.117584
-0.416465
0.2740
0.6805
3.471950
6.799871
6.866555
7.097843
6.941949
1.732835
AUTO
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
0.417172
1.041487
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.6636
0.5941
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 07:47
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
2.354909
0.012367
-0.021153
0.047827
-0.099774
-0.148441
0.095251
40.16838
0.101163
0.175301
3.256346
1.502328
0.227610
0.249369
0.058626
0.122253
-0.120669
0.014687
-0.066413
-0.652173
0.381969
0.9537
0.9037
0.9050
0.9884
0.9476
0.5205
0.7058
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.033596
-0.208005
2.081811
104.0145
-62.75051
0.139057
0.989549
2.56E-14
1.894118
4.500033
4.823836
4.605585
2.011744
KORSEL
REGRESI
Dependent Variable: INFLASI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:01
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
29.47938
0.020963
0.407505
-7.956372
0.957469
28.12013
0.027290
0.201394
2.483629
1.169606
1.048337
0.768147
2.023421
-3.203527
0.818625
0.3041
0.4493
0.0534
0.0036
0.4204
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.571387
0.505446
1.957342
99.61085
-62.07999
8.665178
0.000139
4.132501
2.783298
4.327742
4.559030
4.403136
1.239952
MULTIKOL
GMS
Dependent Variable: GMS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:08
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
-117.7673
1.058567
1.438382
36.43056
-4.822029
202.6934
1.378078
1.513635
19.58035
8.364520
-0.581012
0.768147
0.950283
1.860567
-0.576486
0.5662
0.4493
0.3507
0.0742
0.5692
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
DIR
0.189189
0.064449
13.90913
5030.064
-122.8697
1.516669
0.226444
16.56747
14.38025
8.249659
8.480947
8.325053
1.778261
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
LN_ER
LN_GNI
83.67633
0.333854
0.023336
1.655629
-3.304388
20.14725
0.164995
0.024557
2.634927
0.854201
4.153238
2.023421
0.950283
0.628340
-3.868395
0.0003
0.0534
0.3507
0.5353
0.0007
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.661943
0.609934
1.771652
81.60751
-58.99007
12.72751
0.000007
7.315806
2.836673
4.128392
4.359680
4.203786
0.796879
ER
Dependent Variable: LN_ER
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:13
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_GNI
1.198321
-0.035570
0.003225
0.009035
0.210186
1.905073
0.011103
0.001733
0.014378
0.067633
0.629016
-3.203527
1.860567
0.628340
3.107761
0.5348
0.0036
0.0742
0.5353
0.0045
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
GNI
Dependent Variable: LN_GNI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:14
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
0.663768
0.612040
0.130873
0.445322
21.77854
12.83190
0.000007
6.863131
0.210115
-1.082486
-0.851198
-1.007092
1.230297
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INFLASI
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
18.98162
0.026243
-0.002617
-0.110551
1.288641
2.954983
0.032058
0.004540
0.028578
0.414652
6.423596
0.818625
-0.576486
-3.868395
3.107761
0.0000
0.4204
0.5692
0.0007
0.0045
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.704736
0.659311
0.324052
2.730248
-6.328377
15.51422
0.000001
27.08204
0.555182
0.730863
0.962151
0.806257
0.349676
NORM
Series: Residuals
Sample 1983 2013
Observations 31
6
5
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
4
3
2
9.00e-15
-0.192640
3.163705
-4.036966
1.822186
-0.152636
2.532843
Jarque-Bera 0.402259
Probability
0.817807
1
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
HETERO
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.215992
0.996988
0.537503
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:04
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Prob. F(4,26)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
0.9271
0.9103
0.9697
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS^2
DIR^2
LN_ER^2
LN_GNI^2
-20.51322
-0.000187
0.011555
0.004578
0.031198
28.36787
0.000647
0.026378
0.396835
0.046673
-0.723114
-0.288930
0.438057
0.011537
0.668427
0.4761
0.7749
0.6650
0.9909
0.5098
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.032161
-0.116737
4.273558
474.8457
-86.28664
0.215992
0.927140
3.213253
4.044027
5.889460
6.120749
5.964855
1.817622
AUTO
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
3.247900
6.603197
Prob. F(2,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.0564
0.0368
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/18/15 Time: 08:05
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
GMS
DIR
LN_ER
LN_GNI
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-8.234290
0.003255
0.071428
0.009042
0.280432
0.499899
-0.268865
26.17558
0.028369
0.188366
2.357440
1.099005
0.202414
0.222963
-0.314579
0.114745
0.379198
0.003835
0.255169
2.469689
-1.205872
0.7558
0.9096
0.7079
0.9970
0.8008
0.0210
0.2396
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.213006
0.016258
1.807313
78.39311
-58.36720
1.082633
0.400508
9.00E-15
1.822186
4.217239
4.541042
4.322791
2.081906