FDA/AOAC/BAM App.

2
Supplementary MPN solver, Version 2002.0
Inoculum Number
Positive
Per Tube of Tubes Tubes
0.1
10
5
0.01
10
3
0.001
10
0

Most
Likely
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

04/23/2015

CONCENTRATION
MPN =
9.951
LogMPN=
0.998

Original Thomas's
Approx.=
9.97

95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS

LOW
HIGH
MPN =
4.891
20.263
LogMPN=
0.689
1.306

Likelihood
at MPN =
0.0079637

Haldane's Approximation to the

Standard Error of Log(MPN):
0.1575

Note: if Likelihood at MPN = #NUM!,

then check inocula, numbers of tubes,
and positive tubes for errors.

Likelihood of
most likely
outcome =
8.61E-02
Improbability
ratio =
9.25E-02
(If under 1.00E-04,
then suspect that
test assumptions
have been violated.)

BEGIN AS FOLLOWS:
To compute an MPN and the 95% confidence limits on the Log of the MPN: Enter the inoculum/tube in column A
for each dilution, replacing the example values from row 3 down, going no farther than row 20. Then
enter numbers of tubes per dilution in col. B, and numbers of positive tubes in C. Then
type the number that then appears in column J, row 3, into column G, row 2. Hit Enter key.
Then hold down Ctrl key and type "m". Now the MPN, etc. will be correct.
For assistance, contact Dr. Blodgett at Division of Mathematics in FDA/CFSAN, 301-436-1836,
or email robert.blodgett@cfsan.fda.gov.

Note: check the "Improbability ratio". If it is less than 0.0001, don't trust the result.

-0.000101