April 27, 2015

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

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FAO Estimates Malaysia 2014-15 Rice

Imports to Increase to 1.1 Million Tons

Apr 24, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Malaysia 2014-15 (July - June)
rice imports to increase to 1.1 million tons due to strong consumption demand and the
government's efforts to replenish stocks. In 2014, Malaysia's rice imports increased about 24%
y/y from their below-average level in 2013.It estimates Malaysia's total cereal imports, including
rice, to increase about 6% to around 6.4 million from around 5.99 million tons last year.The FAO
estimates Malaysia's 2015 paddy rice production at around 2.6 million tons (around 1.69 million
tons, basis milled
), slightly above last year's production of about 2.5 million tons (around 1.62 million tons, basis
milled) due to favorable weather conditions and continued government support to the rice sector,

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including subsidies for agricultural inputs.USDA estimates Malaysia to produce about 2.769
million tons of paddy (around 1.8 million tons, basis milled) and import around one million tons
of rice in MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015)

FAO Forecasts Laos 2015 Paddy Rice

Production to Increase 3% y/y to 3.4 Million
Tons
Apr 24, 2015

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted Laos 2015 paddy rice
production to increase about 3% y/y to around 3.4 million tons (around 2.1 million tons, basis
milled) from an estimated 3.3 million tons (around 2 million tons, basis milled) last year.

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Planting of the 2015 main (wet) season paddy crop (May - December) will begin in mid-May
and will continue till July.According to USDA, usually Laos imports around 10,000 tons or rice
to meet the local annual consumption demand of around 1.58 million tons. However, this year,
FAO forecasts Laos to be self-sufficiency in rice production without the need to import rice.
Laos is in fact aiming to increase rice production by around one million tons and become an
exporter of rice by 2015.USDA estimates Laos' MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014)
paddy rice production to increase about 5.8% to around 2.46 million tons (around 1.55 million
tons, basis milled) from an estimated 2.325 million tons (around 1.465 million tons, basis milled)
in MY 2012-13. It estimates Laos to import around 10,000 tons of rice in 2014, unchanged from
last year.

IGC Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade at

41.4 Million Tons; Slightly Down from Last
year
Apr 24, 2015

The International Grains Council (IGC)

forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around
41.4 million tons, down about 4% from
around 43 million tons in 2014 as a
reduction in imports to Far Eastern
countries are likely to fall by 6% y/y to
around 12.9 million tons. Shipments to
South Asian markets such as Bangladesh
and Sri Lanka are expected to decline this
year. However, shipments to traditional
buyers, including Indonesia and the
Philippines, are likely to be significant.
The IGC expects China to remain largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons.
On the exports side, the IGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million tons of rice and
Vietnam to export 6.1 million tons of rice in 2015. However, it expects India's exports to fall by
about 21% y/y to around 8.8 million tons amid falling supplies and stiff competition from
Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.

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The IGC estimates 2014-15 global rice production at around 474 million tons, slightly down
from around 476 million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected decline in major rice exporting
countries, including India and Thailand. It expects India's rice production to decline 3.5% y/y to
around 103 million tons. The IGC is expecting lower output in Thailand (at around 19 million
tons) due to a decline in output from off-season crop. However, the IGC is estimating U.S.
production to increase about 16% to around 7.1 million tons.
It expects global rice consumption in 2014-15 to increase to around 483 million tons, up about
1% from around 479 million tons in 2013-14 due to expected increased consumption in Asian
countries including India and China as well as Sub-Saharan African countries.The Council
expects global rice ending stocks in 2014-15 to decline to about 8% to around 100 million tons
from around 109 million tons in the previous year. It expects inventories of major rice exporters
to decline to around 30 million tons, down 20% from around 39.4 million tons last year mainly
due to higher stock depletion in India and Thailand.

Bangladesh Food Ministry Seeks Import

Duty on Rice Amid Falling Domestic Prices
Apr 24, 2015

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Bangladesh Food Ministry has sought for the imposition of duty on rice imports in the wake of
increasing rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices, according to local
sources.The Ministry reportedly sent a letter to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) last
fortnight seeking import duty on rice in order to ensure fair price to farmers. It apprised the NBR
that the price of rice in the domestic market was declining for last couple of months due to
increasing imports from India.Currently, the government of Bangladesh imposes no duty on
imports of coarse and medium quality rice, but imposes a duty of 5% on aromatic rice imports,
according to local sources. Some farmers' associations are demanding for immediate imposition
of duty as boro harvesting would reach its peaks shortly.
Bangladesh's private sector imported about 1.29 million tons of rice in July 1, 2014 - April 21,
2015, nearly 3.5 times more than 374,560 tons of rice imported in the entire 2013-14 fiscal year
(July - June) and highest in the last four years since 2010-11, according to data from the Ministry
of Food. The Ministry shows that the government has so far not imported any rice in this fiscal
despite setting a target to import about 200,000 tons of rice in the fiscal year 2014-15 to
replenish falling stocks in the country.
Farmers are deprived of decent prices during the ongoing Boro (January - May) harvest. They
are expecting an output of around 18.9 million tons from the 2015 Boro crop, which accounts for
55% of the countrys total production. Prices normally decline during the harvest time but this
time increasing imports are putting more downward pressure on the prices, say millers.
According to local sources, prices of medium quality rice in India stood at about Tk 24.5-25.2
per kilogram (around $314-$323 per ton) in March 2015 compared to Tk 27 per kilogram
(around $346 per ton) of the same quality rice in Dhaka. Due to this price differential, traders
have been preferring to import medium-quality rice variety "Swarna" from India at low prices
and selling at high prices locally. However, farmers and millers are forced to lower their prices to
compete with imported rice.
The government's procurement of Boro rice from May 1, 2015 is likely to provide a cushion to
farmers against falling prices. The government is planning to procure one million tons of 2015
Boro paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It has
fixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per ton) and that for
rice at Tk 32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).Bangladesh produced around 34.449 million
tons of rice, basis milled, in FY 2013-14 (July - June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833
million tons produced in FY 2012-13, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

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India 2014-15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches

4.066 Million Hectares as of April 24, 2015;
Down 9% from Last Year
Apr 24, 2015

Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around
4.066 million hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian
Agriculture Ministry.The decline is reportedly due to untimely rains in some part of the rabi rice
growing areas.
The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's
rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04
million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a

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statement from the Agriculture Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif rice
crop and around 15.02 million tons from rabi rice crop.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Look

Steady ahead of Iraqi Tender
Apr 24, 2015

The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with very little trading to report as most sellers
remain unconcerned about falling bids and limited demand despite burdensome stocks.Analysts
note that the prospect of the U.S. being awarded a piece of the latest Iraqi tender has some in the
industry hopeful that it would lead to firming prices. However, as of now, most believe that the
chance is no better than 50/50.

India Develops New Protein-Rich Rice Using

High-Yielding Local Variety Naveen

Apr 24, 2015

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The Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) has developed a protein-rich rice variety by crossing
a protein-rich germplasm with a high-yielding local rice variety called "Naveen", according to
local sources.The Director of the CRRI told local sources that the new variety has 10.5% protein
content, which is about 3% higher than that found in normal varieties. He noted that the new
variety is high-yielding as well as tolerant to certain diseases. He added that the scientists are
planning to increase the protein content as well as yield of the new variety by cross breeding it
with high-yielding varieties. Presently, the new variety yields about 5.5 tons per hectare and is
well-suited to grow in the Indian eastern states, said the CRRI Director.
The CRRI Director also noted that normally farmers are not that inclined to adopt such new
varieties as the yield provided by them is very low. He added that the institute is planning to
carry out an awareness drive to encourage the farmers to adopt the new protein-rich variety. He
expressed confidence that farmers would be easily convinced as "Naveen" rice variety was quite
popular among farmers in eastern states.The new variety, which is yet to get a name, is cleared
by the Variety Identification Committee under the Ministry of Agriculture. The CRRI is planning
to release the new variety for cultivation within the next two months.The CRRI is also working
towards developing flood and saline-resistant rice varieties as well. So far, the institute
developed 115 rice varieties, according to the CRRI Director.

Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice Index

Continues to Weaken
Apr 24, 2015

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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
ended the week at about $409 per ton, down about $1 per ton from a week ago, down about $7
per ton from a month ago and down about $43 per ton from a year ago.The International Grains
Council (IGC) forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 41.4 million tons, down about 4%
from around 43 million tons in 2014 as a reduction in imports to Far Eastern countries are likely
to fall by 6% y/y to around 12.9 million tons. Shipments to South Asian markets such as
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to decline this year. However, shipments to traditional

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buyers, including Indonesia and the Philippines, are likely to be significant. The IGC expects
China to remain largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons. On the exports side, the
IGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million tons of rice and Vietnam to export 6.1
million tons of rice in 2015. However, it expects India's exports to fall by about 21% y/y to
around 8.8 million tons amid falling supplies and stiff competition from Thailand, Vietnam and
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Pakistan. The IGC estimates 2014-15 global rice production at around 474 million tons, slightly
down from around 476 million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected decline in major rice
exporting countries, including India and Thailand.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $385 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $5 per ton from a month ago, and up about $5 per ton from a year ago.A panel of
Thailands Supreme Court Judges has decided to accept the case filed by the Office of the
Attorney General against the former Commerce Minister and 20 other individuals for their
alleged corruption in G2G rice deals with two Chinese companies. The first trial will commence
on June 29.
The Commerce Minister reports that Thailand exported about 2.7 million tons of rice during
January-mid-April, but exports may decline 1% y/y amid still competitions and falling
prices. Thailand is targeting to export about 10 million tons of rice in 2015.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.During the
period January 1- April 13, Vietnam exported about 1.144 million tons of rice, down about 35%
from the first four months of 2014. Average rice export price so far this year is about $413 per
ton (FOB), down about 5% per ton from April 2014.The UNs FAO has forecasted Vietnams
2015 rice exports to remain at last years below-average level of 6.5 million tons.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down
about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.In the first
eleven months of FY 2014-15 (April-March), India exported about 10.81 million tons of rice
(basmati and non-basmati), an increase of about 8.5% from the same period in FY 2013-14.The
UNs Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted Indias 2015 rice exports to
decline about 18% from last year to around 9.3 million tons.
Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around
4.066 million hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares
planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the Indian
Agriculture Ministry.The Central Rice Research Institute has developed a protein-rich rice
variety which is also high-yielding and tolerant to certain diseases.
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The Food Ministry of Bangladesh is seeking the imposition of duty on rice imports due to
increasing rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices. Separately, the government of
Bangladesh will provide $3.9 million to about 210,000 rice farmers in 48 districts to help them
increase the output from the ongoing Aus cropping season (February-August).
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a
week ago, up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $40 per ton from a year
ago.Pakistans total exports (including basmati and non-basmati) increased sharply in March
2015, after declining in January and February. Pakistan exported about 472,357 tons of rice in
March 2015.The UNs FAO estimate Pakistans FY 2014-15 (July-June) paddy rice production
will decline about 19% from last year to 8.437 million tons.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $565 per ton,
down about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and down
about $60 per ton from a year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $485 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month
ago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago.
The United States Patent and Trademark Office has awarded the inventors of the golden rice
project with the 2015 Patents for Humanity award on nutrition.
Rice farmers in the state of California are facing water shortages that may reduce production in
2015, following a previous reduction in 2014.
The U.S. cash market was mostly unchanged this week despite weakness in the futures market.
Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery remained low this week, opening at $9.955 per cwt
(about $219 per ton) on Monday morning and gaining slightly to reach a high of $10.155 per cwt
(about $224 per ton) on Wednesday before continuing a downward slide toward the end of the
week. They closed the week at $9.985 per cwt (about $220 per ton).
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Other Markets
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a
week ago, up about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago.
Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines showed diverse trends in March, with retail
prices of both well-milled rice (WMR) and regular-milled rice (RMR) declining and wholesale
prices of WMR and RMR increasing.
The Philippines first quarter paddy rice output is likely to be below the government forecast of
4.59 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, according to the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics. The Philippines plans to import rice from Myanmar, India, and Pakistan to fulfill the
increased demand following a recent cyclone. Myanmar is expected to export around 2 million
tons of rice in FY 2015-16 (April - March), up about 11% from around 1.8 million tons exported
in FY 2013-14, the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) was quoted as saying.
During the first three months of 2015, Madagascar imported about 200,000 tons of rice in
efforts to compensate for a likely loss of expected output from cyclones that hit the major rice
producing regions since January this year.
The UNs FAO has forecasted Chinas 2015 rice imports at around 2.7 million tons, similar to
last years above-average levels.
The government of Italy has allowed the temporary use of three kinds of herbicides to control
weeds in rice fields during the crop year 2014-15 (September-August).
The government of South Korea has decided to provide the increased direct subsidies to rice
farmers from this year instead of its initial plan of providing them from 2017. Separately, South
Koreas state-run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) has purchased 72,000
tons of non-glutinous brown rice of U.S. and Chinese origins for delivery between August and
September. Meanwhile, the government of South Korea plans to procure 77,000 tons of locally
produced rice in May to prevent prices from falling as supplies increase.
The government of Indonesia plans to buy low quality rice from farmers in attempts to stabilize
rice prices.
Rice growers in Australia are confident they may produce 700,000 tons of paddy rice in 2015
due to favorable weather conditions.

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The UNs FAO says rice imports for Timor-Leste in 2014-15 may double from last year to over
130,000 tons as a result of reduced output in 2013 and strong domestic demand.
Despite efforts to reach 60% rice-sufficiency by 2015, Brunei has achieved only 4% so far,
according to local sources.
Syrias state-purchasing agency has advanced the deadline for an international tender seeking to
buy about 6,360 tons of long-grain white rice to May 4 from May 18.
The UNs FAO forecasts Laos 2015 paddy rice production will increase about 3% from last year
to 3.4 million tons.
The UNs FAO estimates Malaysias 2014-15 (July-June) rice imports will increase to 1.1
million tons due to strong consumption demand and the governments efforts to replenish stocks.
The International Fund for Agricultural Development has earmarked around N1.5 billion to
boost rice and cassava production in Nigeria in 2015.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Dip Back Below $10.000 per cwt
as Bearishness in Neighboring Grains Pits
Weigh on Prices
Apr 24, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at
$9.980 per cwt (about $220 per ton). The other grains finished the day sharply lower led by a
steep decline in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.9% lower at $9.7075 per bushel; wheat finished
about 2.5% lower at $4.8850 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.7% lower at $3.6450
per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mostly higher on Friday on continued momentum from Thursday's high levels
as investors cheered major earnings reports. The Nasdaq held gains after opening more than 30
points higher, and the S&P touched a new intraday high, while the Dow attempted to shake off a
decline as its top-weighted stocks lagged. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the other major
indices on Thursday to set an all-time closing record, topping the previous high of 5,048.62 set in
March 2000. While the Dow Jones industrial average still has about 1% before surpassing its
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record close, the S&P 500 could set a record close. Durable goods, ex-transportation, fell 0.2%,
below expectations for a slight gain but less than February's 1.3% decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 30 points, or 0.16%, at 18,086. The S&P 500 traded
up 6 points, or 0.29%, at 2,119, with consumer discretionary leading six sectors higher and
energy the greatest decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 38 points, or 0.74%, at 5,093, above the
closing high set on Thursday but still below its record intraday high of 5,132.52 touched during
the tech bubble in March 2000. Gold is trading about 1.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about
1.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago
time.Thursday, there were 1,920 contracts traded, down from 1,962 contracts traded on
Wednesday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on Thursday decreased by 33
contracts to 11,250.

South Korea Plans to Procure 77,000 Tons of

Locally Produced Rice to Stabilize Prices
Apr 24, 2015

The government of South Korea is planning to procure 77,000 tons of locally produced rice in
May this year to prevent prices from falling due to increasing supplies, Reuters quoted a ruling
party Committee as saying.A statement released today noted that supply of rice has exceeded
demand and has been impacting prices significantly. South Korea produced around 4.24 million
tons of rice in 2014 over and above the government's projected 4.18 million tons as well as
above the demand of around 4 million tons. The domestic price of rice declined to around
159,300 won per 80 kilograms (around $1,848 per ton) in April 2015, down about 6% from
around 169,468 won per 80 kilograms (around $1,967 per ton) last year.
The government had opened the rice import market from January this year and proposed to
impose a tariff of 513% on imports over and above the mandatory rice imports of around
408,700 tons under WTO minimum market agreement (MMA) rules. The WTO is yet to approve
the government's proposal regarding the tariff. Declining consumption of rice and the obligation
to import 408,700 tons of rice under the WTO rules have also been contributing to oversupplies
in the market, according to the Agriculture Ministry.USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice
production at around 4.24 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November - October), slightly up from
an estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates South Korea to import around
410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 31% from 313,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14.
USDA estimates South Koreas 2014-15 domestic consumption for rice to decline to around 4.45
million tons from around 4.46 million tons in 2013-14.
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