Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4

Province Region Riding CPC LPC NDP GPC BQ OTH

Alberta Calgary Calgary – Nosehill 58.33 20.38 6.85 12.16 0 2.02
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre 47.47 21.57 9.48 18.41 0 2.82
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre-North 47.98 18.86 12.29 17.88 0 2.73
Alberta Calgary Calgary East 55.87 16.51 9.93 14.62 0 2.82
Alberta Calgary Calgary Northeast 47.51 25.12 6.76 9.88 0 10.47
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southeast 61.87 16.09 5.83 14.03 0 1.93
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southwest 63.6 14.68 6 12.95 0 2.52
Alberta Calgary Calgary West 50.43 25.23 5.07 14.94 0 4.08
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton – St. Albert 52 21.46 12.64 11.78 0 1.86
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton Centre 43.71 31.04 11.04 11.46 0 2.5
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton East 40.55 23.25 23.38 10.3 0 2.27
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Leduc 51.02 24.09 10.81 11.8 0 2.04
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Mill 48.39 26.61 12.47 9.95 0 2.33
Woods--Beaumont
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Sherwood 36.79 18.56 11.04 11.99 0 21.36
Park
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Spruce 57.55 18.58 10.08 11.69 0 1.85
Grove
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton-- 35.1 17.33 33.74 11.04 0 2.54
Strathcona
Alberta Rural Alberta Crowfoot 70.56 11.08 5.92 10.34 0 1.86
Alberta Rural Alberta Fort McMurray-- 53.4 18.2 13.27 10.76 0 4.12
Athabasca
Alberta Rural Alberta Lethbridge 57.48 15.42 11.72 10.32 0 4.8
Alberta Rural Alberta Macleod 67.58 11.46 4.95 12.72 0 3.04
Alberta Rural Alberta Medicine Hat 64.95 11.66 8.3 9.92 0 4.92
Alberta Rural Alberta Peace River 56.77 13.01 11.4 10.68 0 7.88
Alberta Rural Alberta Red Deer 65.14 11.64 8.63 12.31 0 2.03
Alberta Rural Alberta Vegreville-- 66.9 10.57 7.56 12.48 0 2.24
Wainwright
Alberta Rural Alberta Westlock--St. Paul 61.76 15.9 8.2 10.74 0 3.16
Alberta Rural Alberta Wetaskiwin 67.16 11.24 6.9 12.09 0 2.36
Alberta Rural Alberta Wild Rose 63.43 11.55 6.32 16.23 0 2.22
Alberta Rural Alberta Yellowhead 62.23 10.28 10.15 12.88 0 4.2
British Columbia Interior British Columbia 23.44 14.39 45.77 14.81 0 1.34
Southern Interior
British Columbia Interior Cariboo--Prince 45.46 15.39 24.27 11.37 0 3.25
George
British Columbia Interior Chilliwack--Fraser 51.15 14.63 18.36 12.93 0 2.68
Canyon
British Columbia Interior Kamloops-- 36.53 16.74 33.01 12.35 0 1.12
Thompson--Cariboo
British Columbia Interior Kelowna--Lake 45.97 19.63 15.59 16.97 0 1.59
Country

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
British Columbia Interior Kootenay--Columbia 50.09 11.02 23.45 14.12 0 1.07
British Columbia Interior Okanagan-- 47.83 16.67 17.53 16.42 0 1.3
Coquihalla
British Columbia Interior Okanagan--Shuswap 42.13 15.34 21.97 17.73 0 2.57
British Columbia Interior Prince George--Peace 54.88 11.36 17.77 14.36 0 1.39
River
British Columbia Interior Skeena--Bulkley 28.08 10.02 46.86 9.67 0 5.12
Valley
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Abbotsford 55.94 16.26 14.05 11.38 0 2.11
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells 33.49 28.29 24.01 11.06 0 2.89
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Langley 50.13 16.46 17.03 13.66 0 2.46
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Newton--North Delta 24.05 35.45 27.87 10.44 0 1.93
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple 40.21 13.44 32.34 11.62 0 2.14
Ridge--Mission
British Columbia Lower-Mainland South Surrey--White 45.03 26.04 14.01 13.23 0 1.44
Rock--Cloverdale
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Surrey North 25.38 16.57 36.6 9.92 0 11.27
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--Douglas 25.88 25.15 36.53 10.71 0 1.47
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--New 25.08 20.03 41.41 11.48 0 1.74
Westminster
British Columbia Vancouver Delta--Richmond East 44.24 24.77 17.07 12.37 0 1.29
British Columbia Vancouver New Westminster-- 28.38 16.79 41.74 10.69 0 2.15
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver North Vancouver 32.97 39.35 11.16 15.04 0 1.23
British Columbia Vancouver Port Moody-- 44.78 18.03 22.1 11.91 0 2.93
Westwood--Port
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver Richmond 37.79 36.18 12.67 11.26 0 1.85
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Centre 21.63 32.38 24.64 19.12 0 1.98
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver East 7.06 20.38 55.09 14.85 0 2.35
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Kingsway 16.55 34.71 34.93 10.92 0 2.64
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Quadra 27.07 46.19 10.77 14.1 0 1.62
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver South 26.59 42.11 19.35 9.96 0 1.74
British Columbia Vancouver West Vancouver-- 33.98 30.53 16.76 17.32 0 1.16
Sunshine Coast--Sea
to Sky Country
British Columbia Vancouver Esquimalt--Juan de 23.89 34.87 25.88 13.45 0 1.66
Island Fuca
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Alberni 37.16 13.46 31.83 15.3 0 2
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Nanaimo--Cowichan 28.45 10.99 45.21 13.69 0 1.41
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Saanich--Gulf Islands 33.45 34.5 13.13 16.95 0 1.71
British Columbia Island
Vancouver Vancouver Island 35.89 9.27 40.29 12.93 0 1.38
Island North
British Columbia Vancouver Victoria 18.92 22.6 40.88 15.75 0 1.6
Manitoba Island
Rural Manitoba Brandon--Souris 51.72 13.48 17.75 15.24 0 1.56
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Churchill 29.76 33.51 25.11 6.92 0 4.45

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Dauphin--Swan 55.8 16.36 17.03 9.19 0 1.37
River--Marquette
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Portage--Lisgar 64.41 14.04 7.74 10.57 0 2.99
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Provencher 60.79 16.29 11.53 9.2 0 1.94
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Selkirk--Interlake 51.79 11.28 27.24 8.47 0 0.97
Manitoba Winnipeg Charleswood--St. 46.76 28.56 14.66 9.3 0 0.46
James--Assiniboia
Manitoba Winnipeg Elmwood--Transcona 35.52 9.93 44.13 8.89 0 1.28
Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul 44.51 19.08 27.24 7.82 0 1.1
Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface 37.27 38.07 15.23 8.39 0 0.79
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg Centre 16.02 21.02 47.45 13.14 0 2.12
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg North 15.79 16.65 58.27 7.97 0 1.07
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 37.3 38.05 14.67 8.46 0 1.26
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 33.33 43.73 12.77 9.68 0 0.23
Centre
New Brunswick ALL Acadie--Bathurst 13.75 26.31 53.6 5.39 0 0.7
New Brunswick ALL Beauséjour 26.6 48.55 15.05 9.07 0 0.49
New Brunswick ALL Fredricton 35.98 36.96 15.69 10.42 0 0.7
New Brunswick ALL Fundy Royal 46.55 23.02 20.46 9.14 0 0.58
New Brunswick ALL Madawaska-- 29.21 45.23 17.79 7.16 0 0.35
Restigouche
New Brunswick ALL Miramichi 34.92 40.57 15.78 6.94 0 1.54
New Brunswick ALL Moncton--Riverview-- 29.32 44.87 14.93 10.19 0 0.44
Dieppe
New Brunswick ALL New Brunswick 50.51 25.54 15.2 7.86 0 0.63
Southwest
New Brunswick ALL Saint John 38.34 38.91 13.8 7.72 0 0.99
New Brunswick ALL Tobique--Mactaquac 48.12 31.44 11.86 7.92 0 0.42
Newfoundland ALL Avalon 39.75 44.04 9.88 4.33 0 1.75
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Bonavista--Gander-- 26.77 60.89 5.98 4.15 0 1.96
and Labrador Grand Falls--Windsor
Newfoundland ALL Humber--St. Barbe-- 18.94 61.99 11.72 3.07 0 4.03
and Labrador Baie Verte
Newfoundland ALL Labrador 19.67 61.81 9.94 5.33 0 3.01
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Random--Burin--St. 26.56 49.07 17.87 4.43 0 1.8
and Labrador George's
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s East 24.77 20.26 47.63 4.02 0 3.07
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s South- 26.01 37.99 28.86 4.13 0 2.77
and Labrador Mount Pearl
Northwest ALL Western Arctic 24.83 23.85 38.98 9.44 0 2.65
Territories
Nova Scotia ALL Cape Breton--Canso 21.5 50.65 19.87 8.9 0 -1.18

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Nova Scotia ALL Central Nova 42.93 10.61 22.66 23.69 0 -0.14
Nova Scotia ALL Cumberland-- 35.28 19.39 17.95 5.55 0 21.57
Colchester--
Musquodoboit Valley
Nova Scotia ALL Dartmouth--Cole 20.69 41.1 30.43 8.2 0 -0.67
Harbour
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax 17.37 30.66 42.1 10.47 0 -0.85
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax West 19.88 44.93 26.59 9.17 0 -0.82
Nova Scotia ALL Kings--Hants 24.14 45.41 19.14 8.38 0 0.21
Nova Scotia ALL Sackville-- Eastern 19.41 18.17 55.47 7.55 0 -0.93
Shore
Nova Scotia ALL South Shore -- St. 34.81 26.75 29.73 8.07 0 0.45
Margaret’s
Nova Scotia ALL Sydney--Victoria 17.64 50.44 24.45 8.04 0 -0.88
Nova Scotia ALL West Nova 36.74 38.37 16.55 7.63 0 0.4
Nunavut ALL Nunavut 25.04 36.23 20.81 11.99 0 5.68
Ontario Eastern Ontario Carleton--Mississippi 50.4 26.78 8.36 13.06 0 1.14
Mills
Ontario Eastern Ontario Glengarry--Prescott-- 41.39 39.37 8.35 9.67 0 0.97
Russell
Ontario Eastern Ontario Haliburton--Kawartha 46.9 27.62 12.23 11.62 0 1.38
Lakes--Brock
Ontario Eastern Ontario Kingston and the 25.36 44.35 14.67 14.09 0 1.28
Islands
Ontario Eastern Ontario Lanark--Frontenac-- 49.75 25.77 10.5 11.88 0 1.85
Lennox and
Addington
Ontario Eastern Ontario Nepean--Carleton 49.94 28.6 7.75 12.53 0 0.92
Ontario Eastern Ontario Northumberland-- 41.29 33.7 12.46 11.56 0 0.74
Quinte West
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa Centre 18.55 29.13 36.12 14.29 0 1.66
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa South 30.49 49.11 7.36 10.8 0 1.98
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa West--Nepean 39.54 38 9.8 10.47 0 1.93
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Orléans 39.13 41.36 8.13 10.11 0 1.03
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Vanier 23.05 47.23 15.4 12.52 0 1.55
Ontario Eastern Ontario Peterborough 38.07 35.15 14.51 10.91 0 1.1
Ontario Eastern Ontario Prince Edward-- 44.51 31.35 11.17 11.36 0 1.35
Hastings
Ontario Eastern Ontario Stormont--Dundas-- 50.66 25.27 10.04 9.12 0 4.66
South Glengarry
Ontario Golden Ajax – Pickering 31.84 48.07 7.39 10.79 0 1.66
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Ancaster--Dundas-- 38.74 32.4 15.57 11.96 0 1.08
Horsehoe/905 Flamborough--
Westdale
Ontario Golden Bramalea--Gore-- 30.9 48.72 9.5 9.33 0 1.3
Horsehoe/905 Malton

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Ontario Golden Brampton West 34.74 44.82 9.4 9.94 0 0.85
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Brampton-- 31.27 45.16 11.26 11.05 0 1
Horsehoe/905 Springdale
Ontario Golden Brant 35.03 36.37 15.84 10.78 0 1.72
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Burlington 41.37 36.82 9.76 10.88 0 0.92
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Dufferin--Caledon 46.2 26.48 7.2 18.56 0 1.3
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Durham 43.84 31.9 9.01 13.29 0 1.7
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Haldimand--Norfolk 38.76 35.4 9.16 8.6 0 7.84
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Halton 41.17 40.89 5.62 11.03 0 1.03
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton Centre 16.59 23.05 46.18 11.56 0 2.37
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton East-- 19.94 32.75 36.07 8.5 0 2.49
Horsehoe/905 Stoney Creek
Ontario Golden Hamilton Mountain 25.46 26.87 37.42 9.01 0 0.99
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Markham--Unionville 26.52 55.99 7.17 8.3 0 1.76
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga East-- 27.2 53.1 8.34 9.01 0 2.11
Horsehoe/905 Cooksville
Ontario Golden Mississauga South 34.7 46.87 6.45 10.8 0 0.93
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 26.97 52.24 8.92 10.12 0 1.5
Horsehoe/905 Brampton South
Ontario Golden Mississauga--Erindale 36.1 46.12 6.25 10.2 0 1.08
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 30.82 48.11 7.59 10.62 0 2.61
Horsehoe/905 Streetsville
Ontario Golden Newmarket--Aurora 39.77 39.86 5.89 11.46 0 2.77
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Niagara Falls 39.79 31.87 16.01 11.42 0 0.67
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oak Ridges-- 35.84 45.99 6.33 10.31 0 1.28
Horsehoe/905 Markham
Ontario Golden Oakville 39.9 42.46 4.93 11.76 0 0.7
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oshawa 35.34 21.73 30.93 10.4 0 1.34
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Pickering-- 27.5 53.1 7.84 10.09 0 1.21
Horsehoe/905 Scarborough East

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Ontario Golden Richmond Hill 28.99 51.93 6.79 10.96 0 1.08
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden St. Catharines 37.98 34.05 15.95 10.31 0 1.45
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Thornhill 38.87 46.66 3.86 8.94 0 1.42
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Vaughan 26.52 55.46 6.04 10.55 0 1.19
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Welland 26.49 33.13 28.73 9.28 0 2.12
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Whitby--Oshawa 42.84 33.42 10.85 11.35 0 1.28
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden York--Simcoe 48.65 25.78 9.24 13.29 0 2.79
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Northern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin-- 15.75 36.75 37.58 8.55 0 1.12
Kapuskasing
Ontario Northern Ontario Kenora 32.11 35.09 23.12 8.7 0 0.73
Ontario Northern Ontario Nickel Belt 14.85 34.53 39.65 8.59 0 2.12
Ontario Northern Ontario Nipissing-- 29.44 45.84 13.26 10.11 0 1.1
Timiskaming
Ontario Northern Ontario Parry Sound-- 41.47 33.15 9.01 14.97 0 1.15
Muskoka
Ontario Northern Ontario Renfrew--Nipissing-- 55.22 24.41 8.3 9.89 0 1.93
Pembroke
Ontario Northern Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 27.96 25.68 36.61 8.11 0 1.39
Ontario Northern Ontario Sudbury 19.93 36.7 30.43 10.74 0 1.95
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay--Rainy 20.79 35.63 33.89 8.09 0 1.34
River
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay-- 20.64 34 32.24 10.94 0 1.92
Superior North
Ontario Northern Ontario Timmins--James Bay 12.7 29.39 49.67 7.26 0 0.73
Ontario Southwestern Barrie 43.79 32.1 8.75 14.02 0 1.09
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Bruce--Grey--Owen 42.29 23.78 7.12 25.01 0 1.56
Ontario Sound
Ontario Southwestern Cambridge 43.5 29.1 14.45 11.87 0 0.83
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Chatham-Kent--Essex 41.42 32.58 14.6 10.08 0 1.06
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Elgin--Middlesex-- 41.56 27.73 16.89 10.74 0 2.82
Ontario London
Ontario Southwestern Essex 34.23 36.28 20.02 8.4 0 0.81
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Guelph 24.75 37.17 18.13 17.86 0 1.84
Ontario

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Ontario Southwestern Huron--Bruce 36.91 38.79 11.94 9.16 0 2.94
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener Centre 30.05 40.99 15.27 12 0 1.44
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Conestoga 41.06 32.46 11.98 13.45 0 0.79
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Waterloo 29.03 42.09 12.58 14.4 0 1.64
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Lambton--Kent-- 45.56 28.78 12.47 10.66 0 2.29
Ontario Middlesex
Ontario Southwestern Leeds--Grenville 48.69 24.42 12.68 12.6 0 1.36
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London North Centre 27.19 41.22 14.72 15.55 0 1.07
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London West 32.16 37.94 15.57 12.34 0 1.74
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London--Fanshawe 24.97 31.01 32.7 9.92 0 1.15
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Niagara West-- 44.96 29.48 12.01 10.5 0 2.8
Ontario Glanbrook
Ontario Southwestern Oxford 45.86 24.8 14.23 10.66 0 4.19
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Perth--Wellington 42.56 27.24 14.1 12.64 0 3.21
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Sarnia--Lambton 40.69 28.31 17.32 10.43 0 3.01
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe North 41.45 34.28 9.15 13.74 0 1.13
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe--Grey 47.4 28.3 7.92 12.85 0 3.27
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Wellington--Halton 49.52 27.97 7.41 12.9 0 1.95
Ontario Hills
Ontario Southwestern Windsor West 17.29 23.77 47.67 9.38 0 1.63
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Windsor--Tecumseh 19.62 25.85 43.56 9.83 0 0.88
Ontario
Ontario Toronto Beaches--East York 12.75 43.45 29.75 12.58 0 1.23
Ontario Toronto Davenport 6.57 49.61 28.95 12.53 0 2.08
Ontario Toronto Don Valley East 25.96 52.11 10.09 10.25 0 1.34
Ontario Toronto Don Valley West 31.72 50.51 6.59 9.84 0 1.09
Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence 33.59 46.31 7 11.6 0 1.25
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre 29.48 53.51 6.13 9.15 0 1.47
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North 24.11 53.66 11.15 8.82 0 2.01
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31.22 47.31 9.09 10.95 0 1.18

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park 9.88 42.65 33.78 11.6 0 1.83
Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre 24.26 53.12 12.4 9.23 0 0.74
Ontario Toronto Scarborough 23.15 46.02 17.3 12.07 0 1.2
Southwest
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 22.62 60.78 6.78 8.4 0 1.18
Agincourt
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 24.58 53.63 11.52 9.07 0 0.95
Guildwood
Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge 16.6 61.93 9.81 7.12 0 4.28
River
Ontario Toronto St. Paul’s 21.51 53.24 11.74 12.16 0 1.09
Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre 12.88 56.1 14.23 14.73 0 1.8
Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth 6.24 33.96 42.84 15.18 0 1.53
Ontario Toronto Trinity – Spadina 7.7 39.13 39.2 11.67 0 2.05
Ontario Toronto Willowdale 26.26 54.32 6.47 10.3 0 2.39
Ontario Toronto York Centre 30.13 49.04 9.62 9.91 0 1.05
Ontario Toronto York South--Weston 19.27 52.76 17.64 9.2 0 0.87
Ontario Toronto York West 12.23 62.86 13.93 8.99 0 1.73
PEI ALL Cardigan 28.29 52.83 7.4 7.45 0 6.1
PEI ALL Charlottetown 29.04 49.1 12.07 8.36 0 1
PEI ALL Egmont 35.55 46.86 8.67 8.02 0 0.3
PEI ALL Malpeque 34.22 46.02 9.04 10.22 0 0.3

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Québec Eastern Bas-Richelieu-- 13.73 20.23 5.9 7.24 51.1 0.97
Townships Nicolet--Bécancour
Québec Eastern Brome--Missisquoi 13.03 32.1 7.14 8.07 36.53 2.31
Townships
Québec Eastern Compton--Stanstead 15.85 24.51 8.15 8.77 40.98 0.9
Townships
Québec Eastern Drummond 17.37 21.2 11.29 7.66 40.75 0.9
Townships
Québec Eastern Richmond-- 22.39 15.79 7.06 7.52 44.92 1.5
Townships Arthabaska
Québec Eastern Shefford 14.73 26.66 8.6 8.14 40.14 0.9
Townships
Québec Eastern Sherbrooke 11.25 21.66 10.09 5.95 48.62 1.6
Townships
Québec Laurentides Berthier--Maskinongé 18.41 21.96 7.73 7.85 42.25 0.96
Québec Laurentides Joliette 13.61 16.63 7.66 8.67 51.64 0.96
Québec Laurentides Laurentides--Labelle 9.43 27.09 7.3 8.36 45.93 1.05
Québec Laurentides Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 10.7 26.09 9.48 8.53 43.4 0.96
Québec Laurentides Montcalm 9.8 23.77 10.31 7.56 46.73 1
Québec Laurentides Repentigny 10.15 16.94 10.95 7.08 52.98 1.07
Québec Laurentides Rivière – des – Milles 13.87 20.09 9.58 8.62 46.16 0.84
– Îles
Québec Laurentides Terrebonne--Blainville 9.83 17.11 10 7.93 53.09 1.21
Québec Montérégie Beauharnois-- 16.03 18.12 8.91 7.64 47.63 0.85
Salaberry
Québec Montérégie Brossard--La Prairie 13.52 34.18 9.57 7.48 33.23 1.19
Québec Montérégie Chambly--Borduas 11.69 17.99 10.55 8.53 49.57 0.84
Québec Montérégie Châteauguay--Saint- 12.21 24.24 10.4 7.76 43.7 0.85
Constant
Québec Montérégie Longueuil--Pierre- 10.94 23.34 10.94 8.09 44.63 1.22
Boucher
Québec Montérégie Saint-Hyacinthe-- 17.8 15.83 10.01 7.75 46.76 1.02
Bagot
Québec Montérégie Saint-Jean 12.74 19.61 7.99 8.35 48.97 1.5
Québec Montérégie Saint-Lambert 10.9 30.48 10.8 8.02 37.91 1.06
Québec Montérégie Vaudreuil-Soulanges 15.79 27.72 7.29 8.36 38.89 1.12
Québec Montérégie Verchères--Les 11.17 17.01 10.72 7.54 51.68 1.04
Patriotes
Québec Montreal Ahuntsic 5.65 40.42 7.45 7.21 37.51 0.92
Québec Montreal Alfred-Pellan 11.15 30.52 8.99 7.89 39.33 1.28
Québec Montreal Bourassa 8.53 49.63 6.31 7.33 26.09 1.27
Québec Montreal Hochelaga 5.67 23.1 13.73 8.71 45.74 2.22
Québec Montreal Honoré-Mercier 9.96 43.95 8.21 7.44 28.41 1.21
Québec Montreal Jeanne-Le Ber 5.99 34.27 11.78 8.69 35.93 2.5
Québec Montreal La Pointe-de-l'Île 6.86 23.62 9.7 7.28 50.08 1.63

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Québec Montreal Lac-Saint-Louis 17.23 46.31 12.12 11.82 10.79 0.9
Québec Montreal LaSalle-- Émard 8.76 41.12 10.78 8.35 27.59 2.56
Québec Montreal Laurier--Sainte-Marie 1.11 23.28 14.64 11.58 46.06 2.49
Québec Montreal Laval 13.89 29.4 9.67 7.89 37.12 1.19
Québec Montreal Laval--Les-Îles 12.95 39.91 9.03 7.52 28.21 1.54
Québec Montreal Mount Royal 17.34 57.9 7.96 8.66 5.76 1.56
Québec Montreal Notre-Dame-de- 10.38 45.9 12.94 10.91 17.32 1.71
Grâce--Lachine
Québec Montreal Outremont 6.16 39.42 32.16 8.32 11.59 1.51
Québec Montreal Papineau 5.55 42.28 7.57 7.62 34.49 1.66
Québec Montreal Pierrefonds--Dollard 20.06 47.06 8.31 10.61 11.93 1.19
Québec Montreal Rosemont--La Petite- 2.82 20.61 13.37 9.46 51.17 1.74
Patrie
Québec Montreal Saint-Bruno--Saint- 10.73 23.99 10.39 8.21 44.54 1.32
Hubert
Québec Montreal Saint-Laurent-- 10.13 64.02 7.82 5.79 9.71 1.69
Cartierville
Québec Montreal Saint-Léonard--Saint- 8.92 60.27 8.58 7.02 12.82 1.55
Michel
Québec Montreal Westmount--Ville- 10.99 49.71 18.94 11.61 6.44 1.48
Marie
Québec Nord Abitibi--Baie-James-- 19.9 23.3 6.5 7.77 40.81 0.9
Nunavik--Eeyou
Québec Nord Abitibi-- 13.36 24.45 8.32 6.82 44.71 1.51
Témiscamingue
Québec Nord Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 24.28 22.74 6.03 7.06 38.11 0.95
Québec Nord Jonquière--Alma 41.92 15.46 4.59 5.63 30.55 1.02
Québec Nord Manicouagan 17.47 19.34 6.38 7.42 47.52 1.04
Québec Nord Rivière-du-Nord 10.25 15.73 10.5 7.69 53.58 1.42
Québec Nord Roberval--Lac-Saint- 35.09 13.71 4.12 6.91 38.43 0.91
Jean
Québec Nord Saint-Maurice-- 19.5 22.08 6.49 7.61 42.48 1.01
Champlain
Québec Nord Trois-Rivières 19.44 19.74 7.54 7.53 43.82 1.09
Québec Outaouais Argenteuil-- 14.42 22.49 9.07 8.13 44.03 1.02
Papineau--Mirabel
Québec Outaouais Gatineau 10.47 28.86 18.53 7.1 33.05 1.16
Québec Outaouais Hull--Aylmer 9.99 36.08 15.85 9.2 26.75 1.3
Québec Outaouais Pontiac 25.29 26.63 12.12 8.84 24.85 1.43
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauce 52.18 14.01 5.91 8.44 17.54 1.09
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauport--Limoilou 28.35 20.66 9.46 7.35 31.39 1.94
Québec Québec/Beauce Charlesbourg--Haute- 31.36 17.17 9.46 7.1 32.38 1.69
Saint-Charles
Québec Québec/Beauce Lévis--Bellechasse 38.35 16.34 7.9 7.49 26.15 2.94
Québec Québec/Beauce Lotbinière--Chutes- 42.22 14.22 9.63 7.22 24.64 1.24
de-la-Chaudière

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Hébert 21.86 23.65 8.95 7.13 35.72 1.86
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Saint-Laurent 39.16 15.81 7.82 7.23 27.48 1.66
Québec Québec/Beauce Mégantic--L'Érable 36.95 15.47 6.7 7.05 32.16 0.84
Québec Québec/Beauce Montmorency-- 20.71 18.74 6.37 7.34 45.1 0.9
Charlevoix--Haute-
Côte-Nord
Québec Québec/Beauce Portneuf--Jacques- 1.97 15.76 8.59 7.48 32.88 32.5
Cartier
Québec Québec/Beauce Québec 19.6 18.77 9.25 7.84 41.86 1.85
Québec Sud du Saint Gaspésie--Îles-de-la- 18.46 29.34 5.35 7.45 37.47 1.09
Laurent Madeleine
Québec Sud du Saint Haute-Gaspésie--La 14.79 33.55 4.54 7.51 36.77 2.02
Laurent Mitis--Matane--
Matapédia
Québec Sud du Saint Montmagny--L'Islet-- 25.38 22.09 4.98 7.29 38.22 1.21
Laurent Kamouraska--Rivière-
du-Loup
Québec Sud du Saint Rimouski-Neigette-- 13.13 22.53 8.7 6.59 44.32 3.9
Laurent Témiscouata--Les
Basques

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection February 4
Saskatchewan ALL Battlefords-- 54.2 11.31 20.96 7.77 0 5.51
Lloydminster
Saskatchewan ALL Blackstrap 46.47 24.94 18.55 8.7 0 1.09
Saskatchewan ALL Cypress Hills-- 56.78 16.27 15.5 9.14 0 2.07
Grasslands
Saskatchewan ALL Desnethé-- 44.14 30.68 16.06 7.38 0 1.48
Missinippi--Churchill
River
Saskatchewan ALL Palliser 38.5 19.62 32.72 7.98 0 0.93
Saskatchewan ALL Prince Albert 51.23 13.85 25.81 7.86 0 1
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Lumsden-- 42.09 21.1 26.95 8.23 0 1.37
Lake Centre
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Qu'Appelle 42.72 16.76 31.07 8.4 0 0.8
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon--Humboldt 44.47 15.82 26.67 8.87 0 3.91
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 41.26 8.61 40.61 7.68 0 1.58
Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 49.16 18.93 21.63 9.18 0 0.86
Wanuskewin
Saskatchewan ALL Souris--Moose 59.45 12.17 14.42 8.86 0 4.85
Mountain
Saskatchewan ALL Wascana 27.81 49.76 13.7 7.82 0 0.64
Saskatchewan ALL Yorkton--Melville 62.02 9.54 18.78 8.24 0 1.17
Yukon ALL Yukon 23.46 47.19 12.9 14.44 0 1.76

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local