Sales

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January

Naiive F F Error

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

2
1
3
3
4
3
4
-2
-10
-2
-2

0.36

Weighted Moving Average (MA) - 2 periods moving average - weight 2 for 1 pe

Sales
Naiive F F Error

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

2
1
3
3
4
3
4
-2
-10
-2
-2

0.36

Weighted Moving Avearge (MA) - 2 periods moving average - weight 2 for 1 period befor
Sales
Naiive F F Error

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30

10
12
13
16
19
23
26

2
1
3
3
4
3
4

September
October
November
December
January

28
18
16
14

30
28
18
16
14

-2
-10
-2
-2

0.36
Exponential Smoothing

Trend Line
Period

Sales
1 January
2 February
3 March
4 April
5 May
6 June
7 July
8 August
9 September
10 October
11 November
12 December
13 January

10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

Trend SR F Error
10
-1
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

intercept
slope

13.9545454545
0.7377622378

MAD

MSE
2
1
3
3
4
3
4
2
10
2
2

3.3

MAPE
4
1
9
9
16
9
16
4
100
4
4

16.66667
7.692308
18.75
15.78947
17.3913
11.53846
13.33333
7.142857
55.55556
12.5
14.28571

16 17.33142

e - weight 2 for 1 period before and weight 1 for two period before
MAD
MSE
MAPE
2
1
3
3
4
3
4
2
10
2
2

3.3

4
1
9
9
16
9
16
4
100
4
4

16.66667
7.692308
18.75
15.78947
17.3913
11.53846
13.33333
7.142857
55.55556
12.5
14.28571

16 17.33142

ht 2 for 1 period before and weight 1 for two periods before

MAD
MSE
MAPE
2
1
3
3
4
3
4

4
1
9
9
16
9
16

16.66667
7.692308
18.75
15.78947
17.3913
11.53846
13.33333

2
10
2
2

4 7.142857
100 55.55556
4
12.5
4 14.28571

3.3

16 17.33142

MAD

MSE
1

MAPE
1

10

y
Sales

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

x
Period
108
125
150
141
116
134
159
152
123
142
168
165

x
S1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

x
S2
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

x
S3
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

Forecast
106.42
124.42
149.75
143.42
115.67
133.67
159.00
152.67
124.92
142.92
168.25
161.92

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997177
R Square 0.994362
Adjusted R 0.991141
Standard Er1.832251
Observatio
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

4
7
11

SS
MS
F
Significance F
4144.75 1036.188 308.6516 6.03E-008
23.5 3.357143
4168.25

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 134.1667 1.672608 80.21403
Period
2.3125 0.16195 14.27913
S1
-30.0625 1.572941 -19.11228
S2
-14.375 1.530688 -9.391201
S3
8.645833 1.504767 5.74563

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

1.23E-011 130.2116 138.1218
1.96E-006 1.92955 2.69545
2.67E-007 -33.78192 -26.34308
3.23E-005 -17.9945 -10.7555
0.000702 5.087625 12.20404

F Error
RSFE
abs FE
Cumm FE MAD
1.58
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.58
2.17
0.58
2.17
0.25
2.42
0.25
2.42
-2.42
0.00
2.42
4.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
5.17
0.33
0.67
0.33
5.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
5.50
-0.67
0.00
0.67
6.17
-1.92
-1.92
1.92
8.08
-0.92
-2.83
0.92
9.00
-0.25
-3.08
0.25
9.25
3.08
0.00
3.08
12.33

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
130.2116 138.1218
1.92955 2.69545
-33.78192 -26.34308
-17.9945 -10.7555
5.087625 12.20404

1.58
1.08
0.81
1.21
1.03
0.92
0.79
0.77
0.90
0.90
0.84
1.03

Tracking
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.32
0.73
0.85
0.00
-2.13
-3.15
-3.67
0.00