HARGA BELI

HARGA
TimeJUAL
Series Plot of C1
160
139
137

Autocorrelation Function for C1

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)
1,0
0,8
0,6

Autocorrelation

C1

150

140

130

0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0

120
1

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

RATAAN JUAL

10

11

Harga jual: Model AR(1)

z(t)=0,5605Z(t-1)+59,143

140
135
130

Harga Beli:Model AR(2)

z(i)=z(i-2)0.3547 + z(i-1)0,1746 + 6

125
120
115

Lag

Index

10

20

30

40

50

60

Time Series Plot of C2

Autocorrelation Function for C2

(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

160
1,0
0,8
0,6

Autocorrelation

C2

150

140

130

0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0

120
1

10

15

20

25

Index

30

35

40

45

Lag

10

11

Partial Autocorrelation Function for C1

Autocorrelation Function for C1

% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

1,0

Partial Autocorrelation

0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
4

10

11

12

10

11

12

Lag

Lag

Rataan BELI

jual: Model AR(1)

,5605Z(t-1)+59,143

140
135
130

Beli:Model AR(2)
125
i-2)0.3547 + z(i-1)0,1746 + 62.747
120
115

10

20

30

40

50

Partial Autocorrelation Function for C2

Autocorrelation Function for C2

(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1,0

Partial Autocorrelation

0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
4

Lag

10

11

12

Lag

10

11

12

60

50

Harga Jual RATA

Harga Beli
RATA
PREDIKSI
125
125
125
125 142.097
125
128
128
133
129 138.7884
131
126
126
130 129.3333 136.9339
122
126.75
126.75
131
129.75 135.8944
129
125.8
125.8
134
130.6 135.3118
122
126.1666666667
138 131.8333 134.9853
128 126.1667
127.4285714286
124 130.7143 134.8023
135 127.4286
127.875
127.875
134 131.125 134.6997
131
127.7777777778
121
130 134.6422
127 127.7778
130.1
151
130.1
159
132.9 134.6099
131.8181818182
149 131.8182
153 134.7273 134.5919
132.8333333333
144 132.8333
151 133.9167 134.5817
133.2307692308
138 133.2308
135
134 PREDIKSI
132.9285714286
129 132.9286
125 133.3571 50.3674
132.9333333333
133 132.9333
129 133.0667 53.5597
133.25
138
133.25
135 133.1875 17.8653
133.4705882353
137 133.4706
123 132.5882 18.9976
60
133.5555555556
135 133.5556
120 131.8889
6.3368
133.5789473684
122 131.3684
6.7385
134 133.5789
133.75
133.75
125
124.8
2.2477
137
133.7142857143
121 124.619
2.3901
133 133.7143
134.6363636364
151 125.8182
0.7972
154 134.6364
135.0434782609
142 126.5217
0.8478
144 135.0435
135.4166666667
140 127.0833
0.2828
144 135.4167
135.44
135.44
136
127.44
0.3007
136
135.5
135.5
134 127.6923
137
134.9259259259
128 127.7037
120 134.9259
134.8928571429
121 127.4643
134 134.8929
134.8620689655
125 127.3793
134 134.8621
134.8666666667
120 127.1333
135 134.8667
134.6451612903
128 134.6452
129 127.1935
134.5625
132 134.5625
127 127.1875
134.5151515152
133 134.5152
139 127.5455
134.6764705882
140 134.6765
146 128.0882
134.9142857143
143 134.9143
140 128.4286
135.1944444444
145 135.1944
148 128.9722
134.8918918919
124 134.8919
133 129.0811
134.5
120
134.5
125 128.9737
134.3333333333
128 134.3333
134 129.1026
134.075
124
134.075
121
128.9
133.756097561
121 133.7561
122 128.7317
133.5238095238
124 133.5238
127 128.6905
133.3023255814
124 133.3023
120 128.4884
133.4090909091
138 133.4091
132 128.5682
133.3777777778
132 133.3778
127 128.5333
133.7173913043
149 133.7174
157 129.1522
134.170212766
155 134.1702
142 129.4255

134.4583333333

148

134.4583

151

129.875

Harga Beli

Harga Jual
125
131
122
129
122
128
135
131
127
151
149
144
138
129
133
138
137
135
134
137
133
154
144
144
136
137
120
134
134
135
128
132
133
140
143

123
128
129
124
139
120
131
134
124
143
149
157
124
136
130
122
132
135
139
134
127
153
149
152
122
138
126
135
128
127
133
138
120
145
159

1.3862943611
4

1,250,000.0000000
1,280,000.0000000
1,260,000.0000000
1,267,500.0000000
1,258,000.0000000
1,261,667.0000000
1,274,286.0000000
1,278,750.0000000
1,277,778.0000000
1,301,000.0000000
1,318,182.0000000
1,328,333.0000000
1,332,308.0000000
1,329,286.0000000
1,329,333.0000000
1,332,500.0000000
1,334,706.0000000
1,335,556.0000000
1,335,789.0000000
1,337,500.0000000
1,337,143.0000000
1,346,364.0000000
1,350,435.0000000
1,354,167.0000000
1,354,400.0000000
1,355,000.0000000
1,349,259.0000000
1,348,929.0000000
1,348,621.0000000
1,348,667.0000000
1,346,452.0000000
1,345,625.0000000
1,345,152.0000000
1,346,765.0000000
1,349,143.0000000
1,351,944

0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15

125
133
130
131
134
138
124
134
121
159
153
151
135
125
129
135
123
120
122
125
121
151
142
140
136
134
128
121
125
120
129
127
139

146
140
148
133
125
134
121
122
127
120
132
127
157
142
151

0,640-0,1439Z

9
-0.6551
0.73426889
0.5343387067
0.5631086601
0.5589686638
0.5595644093
0.5594786815

150.3449
151.0792
151.6135
152.1766
152.7356
153.2951
153.8546

Chart Title
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
Column J

Column N

125
133
130
131
134
138
124
134
121
159
153
151
135
125
129
135
123
120
122
125
Column Q
121
151
142
140
136
134
128
121
125
120
129
127
139
146
140
148
133
125
134
121
122
127
120
132
127
157
142

2.09691
2.123852
2.113943
2.117271
2.127105
2.139879
2.093422
2.127105
2.082785
2.201397
2.184691
2.178977
2.130334
2.09691
2.11059
2.130334
2.089905
2.079181
2.08636
2.09691
2.082785
2.178977
2.152288
2.146128
2.133539
2.127105
2.10721
2.082785
2.09691
2.079181
2.11059
2.103804
2.143015
2.164353
2.146128
2.170262
2.123852
2.09691
2.127105
2.082785
2.08636
2.103804
2.079181
2.120574
2.103804
2.1959
2.152288

0
0.0620353909
-0.0228146778
0.0076628727
0.0226424767
0.0294138852
-0.1069721196
0.0775582343
-0.1020492544
0.2731136566
-0.0384662808
-0.0131580846
-0.1120050584
-0.0769610411
0.0314986671
0.0454623741
-0.0930904231
-0.0246926126
0.016529302
0.0242926926
-0.0325231917
0.2214892912
-0.0614527792
-0.014184635
-0.0289875369
-0.0148150858
-0.045809536
-0.0562397183
0.0325231917
-0.0408219945
0.0723206616
-0.0156253179
0.0902868467
0.0491326886
-0.0419641991
0.0555698512
-0.1068631455
-0.0620353909
0.0695260626
-0.1020492544
0.0082304991
0.0401660417
-0.0566953437
0.0953101798
-0.0386148361
0.2120587189
-0.1004187477

0,995715+0,3527X1+0,1784X2
2,29238+0,3527X1+0,1784X2

151 2.178977
140.6386
138.6684
136.2411
135.0548
134.2153
133.7117
133.386
133.182
133.0522
132.9702
132.9181

0.0614527792

4.828314
4.890349
4.867534
4.875197
4.89784
4.927254
4.820282
4.89784
4.795791
5.068904
5.030438
5.01728
4.905275
4.828314
4.859812
4.905275
4.812184
4.787492
4.804021
4.828314
4.795791
5.01728
4.955827
4.941642
4.912655
4.89784
4.85203
4.795791
4.828314
4.787492
4.859812
4.844187
4.934474
4.983607
4.941642
4.997212
4.890349
4.828314
4.89784
4.795791
4.804021
4.844187
4.787492
4.882802
4.844187
5.056246
4.955827

0
0.031018
0.013074
0.011721
0.013905
0.01649
-0.001147
0.008691
-0.003614
0.024059
0.018375
0.015747
0.00592
0
0.0021
0.00481
-0.000949
-0.002268
-0.001279
0
-0.001549
0.008589
0.005544
0.004722
0.003374
0.002674
0.000878
-0.001162
0
-0.001361
0.001016
0.000496
0.003217
0.004567
0.003238
0.004692
0.001677
-3.3E-018
0.001783
-0.000813
-0.000593
0.000378
-0.000949
0.001238
0.000353
0.004955
0.002713

0
0.001924
0.001928
0.001293
0.000993
0.000835
0.002873
0.003237
0.004195
0.011387
0.010603
0.009722
0.010168
0.009876
0.009237
0.008739
0.008756
0.008272
0.007831
0.007452
0.00713
0.009051
0.008853
0.008485
0.008177
0.007862
0.007647
0.00748
0.007252
0.007058
0.006997
0.00678
0.006813
0.006668
0.006534
0.006424
0.006581
0.00651
0.006463
0.006567
0.006405
0.006288
0.006214
0.00628
0.006173
0.00701
0.007094

0
0.043866
0.04391
0.035954
0.031518
0.028893
0.053602
0.056895
0.064769
0.106709
0.102973
0.098602
0.100835
0.099379
0.096109
0.09348
0.093575
0.090953
0.088496
0.086325
0.084438
0.095139
0.094092
0.092112
0.090424
0.088669
0.087446
0.086488
0.085159
0.08401
0.083651
0.082343
0.08254
0.08166
0.080834
0.080147
0.081126
0.080687
0.080393
0.081036
0.080029
0.079297
0.078829
0.079247
0.078566
0.083725
0.084224

0
0.074883
0.056983
0.047675
0.045423
0.045383
0.052455
0.065586
0.061155
0.130768
0.121348
0.114349
0.106755
0.099379
0.098208
0.09829
0.092626
0.088685
0.087217
0.086325
0.082889
0.103728
0.099636
0.096834
0.093798
0.091343
0.088325
0.085326
0.085159
0.082649
0.084667
0.082839
0.085757
0.086228
0.084072
0.084838
0.082803
0.080687
0.082175
0.080223
0.079436
0.079675
0.07788
0.080485
0.078919
0.08868
0.086937

140.6386
138.6684
136.2411
135.0548
134.2153
133.7117
133.386
133.182
133.0522
132.9702
132.9181
132.8851

2.29614
3.113192
3.800034
4.188045
4.44743
4.608136
4.711091
4.776073
4.81736
4.843514
4.860104
4.870622

9.935753 0.003937 0.007015 0.083753

22.49272
44.7027
65.89387
85.40714
100.297
111.1734
118.6376
123.6382
126.9146
129.0377
130.402

0.08769