Ebola Virus

By: Ruth Ocampo

Ebola Outbreak

Ive been hired by the Secret Service and Center for Disease Control(CDC) after some deaths
had occurred in the U.S. from the Ebola Virus. My job was to analyze the spread of the disease,
given the information (collected over the last several days). I had to use the data below to
determine the answers to the questions that the CDC and the secret service have regarded the
safety of the President of the United States.

Date
October 9
October 10
October 11
October 12
October 13
October 14
October 15
October 16
October 17

# Of Infections
40
72
115
203
346
578
993
1680
2865

Equation
Date
October 9
October 10
October 11
October 12
October 13
October 14
October 15
October 16
October 17

# Of Infections
40
72
115
203
346
578
993
1680
2865

(0,40) & (1,72)

40 = ab^0
72=ab^1
40= a.1
72 = 40b^1
a = 40
b = 1.8
y=40(1.8)^x

In 7 days how many infections can be

expected?
y=40(1.8)^15 = 269,865.6
In 7 days 269,865.6 people are
expected to be infected.

At what point would you expect there to

be....
a. 100 people infected
-. 100/40 = 40/40(1.8) ^x
2.5 = 1.8
Log 1.8/Log 2.5= 1.55
October 10th is when
100 people will
become infected.

At what point would you expect there to

be...
b. 1,000 people infected?
- 1,000/40 = 40(1.8)=5.48
Log 1.8 / Log 5.48 = 2.90
October 14th is when
1,000 people will become
infected.

At what point would you expect there to

be...
c. 1,000,000 people infected?
- 1,000,000 = 40(1.8) = 17.22
Log(1.8)/Log(17.22) = 4.84
October 26th is when
1,000,000 people will
become infected.

If the current US population is 313.9 million, when

would we expect the entire population to be infected?

313,900,000 = 40(1.8)/40
7,847,500
27+9= 36.00
The entire population
will be infected by ebola by
November 5th.

At what percent population infected would you recommend

evacuation of the president of the united states? Why would you
choose that percentage?

40(1.8)^36 = 173,438,346.3
At 55% of the population infected
I recommend that the president
should evacuate. I choose this
percentage because thats more
than half the population that is
infected.

At what date would you expect this percent population

infection to occur?

October 17 + 18 days = November 4th

On November 4th I expect the percent
population infection to occur.

When was the first infection?

Log(1.8)^x = 1/40 = -6.2
9-6=3
October 9 - 6 = Oct. 3
The first infection
was on October
3rd.

y=40(1.8)^x
As you can see every day the number of people infected increases.

Conclusion
We need to make the number of infections
decrease every day not increase. Lets put a
stop to this.