The Lockwood Analytic Method for

Prediction (LAMP):
15 January 2002
An Innovative Methodological Approach
to the Problem of Predictive Analysis

Briefing Sequence

Background of LAMP
Philosophical basis for LAMP
The 12 Steps of the LAMP Process
Limitations of the LAMP
Potential Applications for LAMP
Conclusions

Background of LAMP

Developed by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992 while in

DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program

Utilized by numerous graduate students in JMIC as

core methodology in Masters Degree theses

Software exists in early prototype only

First published in Defense Intelligence Journal in Fall
1994

Philosophical Basis of LAMP

THE FUTURE IS:

Not Predetermined
The Sum Total of All Interactions of Free Will
A Dynamic Spectrum of Constantly Changing
Relative Probabilities

The 12 Steps of LAMP

Determine the Predictive Issue

Specify courses of action for each actor

Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem

Conduct in-depth study of perceptions and intentions
of each actor

Determine the major scenarios

Calculate the number of alternate futures

Linkages Within the LAMP Method

Scenarios
Alternative Futures
Focal Events

Indicators

The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued)

Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures

Rank order the alternate futures
Analyze consequences of alternate futures
Determine focal events for alternate futures
Develop indicators for each focal event
Assess the potential for transposition between
alternate futures

The Concept of the Analytic Map

Limitations of LAMP

Exponential explosion problem with alternate futures

Little allowance for ambiguity

Analyst can identify most likely future, but cannot

assign a quantifiable probability of occurrence for each
future

Potential Applications for LAMP

Indications and Warning

Tactical intelligence (?)

Estimative Intelligence
Common analytical method for intelligence
Computerized analytic tool kit
Training
Interface between intelligence, academia and public
policy communities

Conclusions

LAMP does not grant the gift of prophecy

LAMP is not an infallible method
LAMP does provide a logical and powerful method
for analyzing the futures many possible paths

WHAT ARE YOUR QUESTIONS?