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Degree/Diploma Granting Programmes: Template for proposing new course outlines_v2019_Internal Faculty
Course Summary
The past few decades have witnessed growing adaptability of analytical forecasting tools in the corporate
sector. This may be attributed to increase in the complexity, competitiveness and the rate of change in
the business environment. The objective of this course is to present a comprehensive view of the various
tools and techniques used in forecasting for managerial decision making including the problem of demand
estimation, market size determination, sales projections, analysing and predicting stock prices. The
models and methodology, covering various time series analysis techniques, as well as regression methods,
will be presented with healthy mix of numerical illustrations and case studies. The focus of the course is
on enabling the students to take up forecasting projects on their own.
Usage of software R will be integrated throughout the course. The necessary R codes would be
demonstrated and shared. The students will have to implement these for their project data.
The objective of this course is to present a comprehensive view of the various tools and techniques used
in forecasting for managerial decision making including the problem of demand Estimation, market size
determination, sales projections, analyzing and predicting stock prices.
On completion of this course, the student should be able to:
Understands finer details of various time series models and adapt them forecasting problems of
interest such as sales forecast, demand forecast, stock market behavior;
Integrate regression and time‐series techniques comprehensively;
Model and Forecast high frequency demand data like energy load, mobile usage adopting new state‐
of‐the‐art modelling techniques;
Critically compare and combine various methods used for forecasting;
Use R for predictive analytics;
Undertake forecasting projects.
Pedagogy
The course will be a combination of lectures, and numerical demonstrations.
Text Book:
Business Forecasting, J.E. Hanke & D. Wichern. Pearson (2015). Ninth Edition.
Degree/Diploma Granting Programmes: Template for proposing new course outlines_v2019_Internal Faculty
Course Evaluation & Grading Pattern
Component Weightage
Exercise (one short individual exercise, to get familiarized with R) 10%
Class participation 20%
Project work (group) [report 25%, presentation 15%] 40%
End term 30%
Students will be given two weeks to select their own project and data and 5% bonus marks will be awarded
if they can select project on their own using the guideline. Failing that, the students will be assigned
specific forecasting projects.
Students are expected to attend all sessions. The standard e‐PGP (program) rules are applicable. In
addition, the students are required to attend the sessions designated for project presentation, failing
which would attract suitable penalty in the project component.
Marks in the CP component will be awarded on the basis of quality (rather than quantity) of comments,
questions and discussions during the sessions, including project presentations.
Session-wise plan
3 credits=20 sessions, 90 minutes each; 1.5 credits=10 sessions, 90 minutes each (excludes time involved in conducting quizzes of more
than 30 mins duration and examinations).
2 Basic features and tools in Time series HE: Chapter 2. LS
Review of Regression. Approaches for using covariates time
3 HE: Chapters 5‐6. LS.
series forecasting.
4 Decomposition methods HE: Chapter 4. LS
5 Exponential (ETS) and other smoothing techniques HE: Chapter 3. LS
6 Advanced ETS models and implementation LS, HO
Implementation of decomposition and smoothing methods in Case study: Predicting hotel
7
R. occupancy
Forecasting with Logistic regression (Predicting e.g. whether a
8 LS
loan will be repaid in time)
Understanding autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA)
9 HE: Chapter 8. LS
models and study of their properties
Degree/Diploma Granting Programmes: Template for proposing new course outlines_v2019_Internal Faculty
10 Midterm discussion on projects:
Model identification and prediction in ARIMA, Seasonal ARIMA
11 HE: Chapter 8. LS
(SARIMA)
Forecasting with ARIMA / SARIMA ‐‐ Implementation using R.
12 LS, HO
Examples and case studies
Regression with ARMA errors. Different ways of integrating
13 HE: Chapter 7. LS
time series and regression methods
Different methods of Combining forecast. Overall LS, HO. Case study: Forecasting
15
management of forecasting process Revenues in Indian railways
LS. Case study: Forecasting energy
16 Energy load forecasting
load at New York.
DE LIVERA et al (2011).
Methods for complex multiple seasonality. TBATS and two Forecasting Time Series with
17
stage methods for forecasting high frequency data Complex Seasonal Patterns Using
Exponential Smoothing. JASA
Bass, Frank (1969). A new product
growth for model consumer
18 Bass Type Models for forecasting a new product growth
durables. Management Science.
LS
19 Project presentation
20 Project presentation
HO: handout
Degree/Diploma Granting Programmes: Template for proposing new course outlines_v2019_Internal Faculty