UNIGLOBE COLLEGE

POKHARA UNIVERSITY
NEPAL
Course plan
Program: MBA
Trimester: Second
Course Title: DAMDM II (2 Credit)
Data Analysis and Modeling for Decision Making
Instructor’s Personal
Name: Bal Krishna Khadka
E-mail: balkrishnakhadka@gmail.com
Mobile No: 9841-760108

Course Outline

The statistical tools and techniques are used in various functional areas of business and
others areas. A few examples are in order: finance uses it to find optimal portfolio
combinations or to hedge risk or to forecast financial variables; marketing uses it to study
preference of consumers when economic or other environments for a product’s market
are changed, or to study the effect of advertising or of changes in strategic behavior on
sale; management may use it to study the quality of products or the effect on quality of an
intervention; accounting could use it to measure the variability or determinants of cost.
This is not an exhaustive list. To be a complete manager, you need to grasp the nettle of
collecting, organizing, modeling, analyzing and interpreting data for your own business
issues and problems to better handle the issues and problems making evidence based
decision for the betterment of your organization or institution.

The use of statistics and quantitative tools in decision making has become widespread
virtually in every occupational field. To support good evidence based decision, the
purpose of this course is to enhance participant knowledge and skills in statistical
principals and use of quantitative tools and models to assist a decision maker or a
manager faced with interpreting data and drawing rational and meaningful conclusions.

The range of topics covered is broad enough to be used in a wide variety of fields of
application in business areas. This course will offer correlation analysis, regression
analysis, time series analysis and forecasting along with some basic tools in quantitative
techniques or Management Science / Operations Research such as linear programming,
integer programming, decision making and network analysis.

1
Course Objective

The main intended objective of the course is to provide theoretical and practical
knowledge in statistics and quantitative techniques to enhance the capabilities of the
students in evidence based decision making. Specific objectives of this course are listed
as below:

i. To provide students with a comprehensive background in quantitative techniques

ii. To impart further knowledge of basic principles in Statistics
iii. To inculcate a habit of thinking statistically in order to enhance one’s decision-
making capabilities
iv. To strengthen the ability of students to apply standard tools of analysis to a wide
variety of situations in management and/or decision-making
v. To provide knowledge of using computer software such as SPSS, LINDOS etc. to
solve problems to make evidence based decision analyzing and interpreting the
data

Course Content

Unit 1: Correlation Analysis 2 LH

Definition, Methods of Correlation (Graphical, Mathematical), Properties of
Correlation, Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Correlation
Coefficient

Unit 2: Regression Analysis 10 LH

Difference between Correlation and Regression Analysis, Scatter Diagram,
Simple Regression Analysis, Best Fitting of Regression Line by Using Least
Square Method, Interpretation of Intercept and Slope, Standard Error, Coefficient
of Determination, Multiple Regression Analysis, Confidence Interval and
Prediction Interval for Mean Value and Individual Value, Confidence Interval for
Regression Coefficients, Hypothesis Testing of Regression Coefficients, Residual
Analysis, Multiple Coefficient of Determination and Adjusted Coefficient of
Determination

Correlation and Regression Analysis in SPSS 3 LH

Unit 4: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 5 LH

Introduction, Decomposition of a Time Series Data (Trend, Seasonal, Cyclical
and Irregular), Least Square Method, Moving Average Method, Exponential
Smoothing, Measures of Forecast Accuracy (Forecasting Error, MAD, MSE,
MAPE) Autocorrelation

2
Unit 5: Linear Programming 12 LH
Basic Concepts, System of Linear Inequality, Model Formulation, Graphical
Solution, Duality, Sensitivity Analysis, LINDO Output Analysis

Unit 6: Network theory 4 LH

Suggested Readings
1. Statistics for Management, Seventh Edition, Richard I. Levin, David S.
Rubin, Prentice Hall.
2. Introductory Management Science - Eppen, Gould, and Schmidt
3. Quantitative Approaches to Management, Eighth Edition, Richard I. Levin,
David S. Rubin, Joel P. Stinson, Everette S. Gardner, Jr, McGRAW-HILL,
INC.
4. Quantitative Techniques in Management, Second Edition, ND VOHRA,
TATA McGRAW-HILL.
5. A First Course in Business Statistics, Third Edition, Levine, Krehbiel,
Berenson, Pearson Education
6. Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, Damodar N. Gujarati, TATA
McGRAW-HILL.

Evaluation Criteria

Assessment
40% weight is assigned to external trimester end examinations conducted by Pokhara
University at the end of the trimester.

60% weight is assigned to internal continuous assessments made by the instructor

through the semester.

Following is the breakdown of the internal assessment for this course. The activities
listed below will be used to test ability of students in knowing, understanding along with
application of tools and methods in real business problems that they learned during the
trimester in this course:

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Internal assessment:
TEST ACTIVITIES UNIT OF ANALYIS WEIGHT
Home Assignments (5) Individual 15%
Project work (Group) (up to 2) Individual/group 15%
Mid-term exam (1) Individual 20
%
Class Participation, classroom exercises and Individual 10
attendance in class %
TOTAL 60%

Session Plan
The following schedule will be followed through the semester
Topics to be covered
Main Topic Subtopic Periods
Introduction Definition and importance
Definition, Methods(Graphical and mathematical
Correlation Analysis 2
method), interpretation
Hypothesis testing of correlation coefficient

Definition, Estimating equation,

interpretation of y intercept and slope
Regression Analysis Error, TAD, MAD, MAPE, MSE, SE
(Simple) Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval of
estimating equation 3-7
Total Variation, explained variation, unexplained
variation, coefficient of determination, correlation
coefficient.
Standard error of regression coefficient,
Confidence interval and hypothesis testing of
regression coefficient

Assignment 1 and Project 1

Definition, Estimating equation, estimation of

regression coefficient (2 independent variable)
Multiple Regression Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval of 8-10
Analysis estimating equation and regression coefficient
Residual Analysis, Autocorrelation, Durbin
Watson Statistics,
Dummy variable, Multicollinearity, Step wise
regression
Analysis of SPSS output
Assignment 2
Time Series Analysis and Components of time series analysis( Trend, 11-15
forecasting Cyclical, Seasonal, Irregular)
Trend analysis (Linear and curvilinear) least
square method
Cyclical Variation, Business cycle, Percent of
trend, Relative cyclical residual

4
 Moving average method, Seasonal Variation,
Calculation of seasonal indices,
Deseasonalization
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting errors
Assignment 3 and Project 2
Introduction, Decision variable, objective
function, constraints, Model formulation
16-20
Linear Programming Graphical solution, Determination of OV,
active constraints, inactive constraints, slack,
surplus, Alternative optimum solution
Sesitivity Analysis, Primal, Dual, LINDO
Output Analysis
Assignment 4
Activities, events, network diagram, Critical
Network Analysis 21-24
path, Critical activities
PERT,
Assignment 5