Course Policy Managing Uncertainty

Mukesh Patel School of Technology Management and Engineering

Data Science Department

Course Policy

Program/Branch/Semester : B. Tech Data Science Mumbai / MBATech Data Science

Mumbai & Shirpur/ SEM III

Academic Year : 2023-24

Course Name : Managing Uncertainty

Credit Details : L T P C
3 0 2 4

Course Coordinator : Prof. Anant Pandey/ Prof. Meet Jethwa/

Faculty Prof. Piyushkumar Soni/ Prof. Rashmi Patel/ Prof.
Kshamta Mathir

Contact No. & Email :

anantp316@gmail.com/ meetjethwa3@gmail.com/
piyushkumar.soni@nmims.edu/
rashmi.patel@nmims.edu/ kshamta.mathur@nmims.edu

Office hours :

1 Introduction to the Course

1.1 Importance of the course

Managing Uncertainty is a practical-oriented, application-based course. The course will enable

you to reproducible data analysis reports, demonstrate a conceptual understanding of the
unified nature of statistical inference, perform frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference and
modelling to understand natural phenomena and make data-based decisions.
1.2 Objective of the Course

Students will be familiar with the basic rules of probability and will be able to use them in
modelling uncertainty in obtaining and recording data. They will be able to utilize graphical
and numerical summaries of data in understanding data-generating processes. To enable the
students to analyze data more effectively using statistical software.

1.3 Pre-requisite

Nil

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Course Policy Managing Uncertainty

2 Course Outcomes (CO) and mapping with Program Outcomes (PO)

2.1 Course Outcomes

After completion of the course, students will able to -

1. Define marginal and conditional probabilities and the covariance of two random variables,
2. Outline most common discrete and continuous probability distributions and their real-life
applications,
3. Apply dispersion, correlation and distribution to solve problems.

2.2 CO-PO Mapping

PO1 PO2 PO3 PO4 PO5 PO6 PO7 PO8 PO9 PO10 PO11 PO12
CO1
CO2
CO3

Green- medium mapping Blue- high mapping

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3 Syllabus, Pre-class activity and References

3.1 Teaching and evaluation scheme

Teaching Scheme Evaluation Scheme

Internal Continuous
Lecture
Practical Tutorial Assessment (ICA) Theory
Hours
Hours Hours Credit As per Institute Norms (3 Hrs,
per
per week per week (50 Marks) 100 Marks)
week
Marks Scaled to 50 Marks Scaled to
3 2 0 4
50

3.2 Syllabus

Detailed Syllabus
Unit Description Duration
1 Classification and tabulation of Data: Meaning and objective of
classification, Types of classification, formation of discrete and continuous
2
distribution.

Descriptive Statistics:
 Measures of central tendency. Average, median and mode
 Measures of statistical dispersion. Sample variance, quartiles, and
interquartile range
 Distribution visualization. Histogram, Frequency distribution,
8
Quantitative Data Graphs (Histograms, Frequency Polygons, Ogives,
Dot Plots, Stem-and-Leaf Plots); Qualitative Data Graphs (Pie
2
Charts, Bar Graphs, Pareto Charts); Graphical Depiction of Two-
Variable Numerical Data: Scatter Plots
 Descriptive statistics of sample vs population
 Descriptive statistics
 Basic visualizations of statistical data
 Converting columns in data-frames
 Data summarization and descriptive statistics. Highlights

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Measures of Variability:
Dispersion, Range, Standard deviation, Chebyshev’s theorem; Population v/s 6
sample variance and standard deviation, Skewness; Kurtosis.
Correlations and visualizations:
 Sample covariance and Pearson's correlation
3  Correlation vs causation
 Rank correlations for non-linearly dependent data and ordered
categorical data.
 Finding correlations
 Correlations and visualizations

Conditional Probability and Independence:

 Conditional probability. Motivation and Example
 Conditional probability. Definition
 Independent events. Example
 Independent events. Definition
 Mosaic Plot. Visualization of conditional probabilities and
Independence 4
4
 Using independence to find probabilities. Examples
 Pairwise and mutual independence
 Bernoulli Scheme
 Law of total probability
 Bayes’ rule
 Python for conditional probabilities
 Conditional probability. Highlights
Random variables:
 Examples of random variables
 Mathematical definition of random variable
 Probability distribution and probability mass function (PMF)
 Binomial distribution
 Expected value of random variable. Motivation and definition
 Expected value example and calculation: 4
5
 Expected value as best prediction:
 Variance of random variable. Motivation and definition
 Discrete random variables with infinite number of values
 Saint Petersburg Paradox. Example of infinite expected value
 Geometric and Poisson distributions
 Generating discrete random variables for generation and visualization
of common distributions

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Properties of Expectation and variance, covariance and correlation

Random Variable:
 Linear transformations of random variables
 Linearity of expected value
 Symmetric distributions and their expected values
 Functions of random variables
 Properties of variance
 Sum of random variables. Expected value and variance. 6
6  Joint probability distribution
 Marginal distribution
 Independent random variables
 Another example of non-independent random variables
 Expected value of product of independent random variables.
 Variance of sum of random variables. Covariance
 Properties of covariance
 Correlation of two random variables
Continuous random variables:
 Continuous random variables. Motivation and Example
 Probability density function (PDF)
 Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
 Properties of CDF
 Linking PDF and CDF
 Examples of probability density functions
 Histogram as approximation to a graph of PDF
 Expected value of continuous random variable. 6
7
 Variance of continuous random variable. Properties of expected value
and variance
 Transformations of continuous random variables and their PDFs
 Joint CDF and PDF. Level charts. Marginal PDF
 Independence, covariance, and correlation of continuous random
variables
 Mixed random variables. Example
 Generating and visualizing continuous random variables
 Generating correlated random variables
Probability and Bayes' Theorem:
 Classical and frequentist probability
 Bayesian probability and coherence
 Conditional probability 5
8  Bayes' theorem
 Bernoulli and binomial distributions
 Uniform distribution
 Exponential and normal distributions

9 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing and statistical Inference 4

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Total 45

3.2 Pre-class activity

Faculty will provide pre-class activity details on the student portal (Data set, Definition of
variables and questions). Students are expected to go through the material before attending the
upcoming session.

3.3 References

Text Books:
1. Richard Levin, David S Rubin, Sanjay Rastogi and Massod Husain, “Statistics For
Management”, Pearson, 8th edition, 2017

Reference Books:
1. Damodar Gujarati, “Basic Econometrics”, McGraw Hill Education, 5th edition,2017

Note: The latest edition of books should be referred.

3.4 Other Material (OM)
I. Learn and Download R:
A. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3FozVfd7q4
B. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwobGhobPzY
C. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANMuuq502rE

II. Logic Statements:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGf7WNh-
LX8&t=0s&index=3&list=PLySFDyycxc9MaBzK3xvBttSJZRNzuTsNu

III. Variables and Data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BcGnHwUT6k&t=0s&index=4&list=PLySFDyycxc9M
aBzK3xvBttSJZRNzuTsNu

IV. Data Science with R: 4 videos (Watch some duplicates as needed)

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmk2YF3RnJPlZ5qzIelCozbYnX3cfx0ZM

4 Laboratory details

Students can use Excel, R and Python in lab work. Faculty will upload lab documents on the
portal before the commencement of the lab. The document will contain lab details like aim,
learning outcomes, procedure, and analysis.

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A tentative list of the lab experiment is given below. Faculty may revise this list during the
semester.

Sr. Week Mapped

List of Lab Exercises
No. No.# CO
Installing Python and Python Core Programming
principles
1 1 a. Looping and decision making CO1
b. Practice exercise on the Law of Large Numbers

Fundamentals of Python programming

a. Vector, array, Matrix, lists and Data frame
2 2 b. Practice exercise Basketball Free Throws CO1
c. Practice exercise Demographic Data
d. Practice exercise Car Sales Data

Python programming implementation

3 3 a. Measures of central tendency CO1
b. Measures of dispersion
Data Classification and Data Presentation
a. Visualization with ggplot2 and Excel and Python
libraries
4 4&5 b. Line, Bar, Histograms, Box plot and Density Charts CO1
c. Creating Frequency table both in Python and Excel
d. Practice exercise Movie Rating

Probability and conditional probability

a. Explain Conditional and Bay’s inference in Python
5 6 CO3
and Excel Environment
b. Practice exercise on Bay’s Theorem (Irish Data set)

Introduction to Probability and Probability Distribution

a. Working with Poisson and Binomial distribution in
6 7 Python and Excel Environment CO2
b. Practice exercise to Create PDF, CDF in Python and
Excel

Continuous Probability Distribution

a. How to create Normal distribution in Python and
Excel
b. How to create calculate student t distribution in
7 8&9 Python and Excel CO2
c. Calculating Confidence Intervals in Python and Excel
d. Practice exercise: simulated standardized Data and
find out 68%,95%, and 99% confidence interval

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Course Policy Managing Uncertainty

Central Limit Theorem and Sampling Distribution

a. Implementing the Central Limit Theorem in Python
7 10 CO3
b. Practice exercise: pipe manufacturing data set

Hypothesis Testing
a. Conducting One-sample t-test in Python and Excel

8 11&12 b. Conducting Two-sample t-test in Python and Excel CO3

c. Practice exercise: collect stock price data and test
whether there is any impact on COVID19 or not

5 Tutorial Plan
No Tutorial for this course

Sr. Week Mapped

Tutorial exercises / activity
No. No.# CO

6 Assessment Policy
6.1 Component wise Continuous Evaluation Internal Continuous Assessment (ICA) and
Term End Examination (TEE)

Assessmen ICA (100 Marks) TEE (100

t (Marks scaled to 50) marks)
Componen (Marks
t scaled to
50)
Regular Lab Exam Challengin Class Test 1 Class
Lab and Viva g learning and Class Participat
Performa assessment Test 2 ion and
nce (C) Other
(A) (B) (D) Learning
(E)
Weightage 20% 20% 10% 20% 10% 50%
Marks 20 10+10 10 20+20 10 100
Date/week Weekly Week 13 & Week 15 Test 1: Week Week 1 to
of activity 14 6 Week 14
Test 2: Week
12

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Course Policy Managing Uncertainty

6.2 Assessment Policy for Internal Continuous Assessment (ICA)

Assessment of ICA comprises the following components.

1. Class test 1 and 2 (20 +20)

a. Two class tests will be conducted as per the academic calendar.

b. It will be conducted offline for 20 marks each

2. Lab performance evaluation (20 marks)

For each lab, there will be an exercise which contains 10 marks each. The
following points will be considered during the assessment
a. Timely submission
b. Lab implementation and troubleshooting
c. Documentation
Note: 20% penalty for late submission

3. Lab exam and viva (20 marks) – The lab exam will be conducted at the end of
the semester based on the lab performed during the semester. Viva Voce will be
based on the lab work and theory class.

4. Challenging learning assessment (Group activities) (10 marks)

a. CR/SR will form a group of 2-3 students. This activity should be completed in
the first week.
b. Students will discuss with the faculty and decide their topics end of 2nd week.
c. Each group will create a detailed report and presentation.
d. Faculty will display the presentation schedule in the 12th week. The presentation
will start from the 13th week.
e. Groups will present in random order.

5. Class Participation (10 marks)- The faculty will ask questions during the class
or may give some in-class assignment/quiz. Successfully responding to the
question or completing the in-class activity will fetch marks for the students. The
idea is to encourage students to participate actively in the class.

6.3 Assessment Policy for Term End Examination (TEE)

A final term-end exam will be conducted as per the academic calendar. Details of the same will
be communicated by the course coordinators.

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7. Lesson Plan

Session Mapped Reference

Topics (TB1)
No. CO
Basic Introduction Concepts &
1 1
Probability concept Through Sub-prime Crises Questions
Measures of central tendency. Average, median and 1 Chapter-1 & 2
2
mode
Measures of statistical dispersion. Sample variance, 1 Chapter-1 & 2
3
quartiles, and interquartile range
Distribution visualization. Histogram, Frequency 1 Chapter-1 & 2
distribution, Quantitative Data Graphs (Histograms ,
Frequency Polygons, Ogives, Dot Plots, Stem-and-
4
Leaf Plots) ; Qualitative Data Graphs (Pie Charts ,Bar
Graphs, Pareto Charts ) ; Graphical Depiction of
Two-Variable Numerical Data: Scatter Plots
5 Descriptive statistics of sample vs population 1 Chapter-1 & 2
6 Descriptive statistics 1 Chapter-1 & 2
7 Basic visualizations of statistical data 1 Chapter-1 & 2
8 Converting columns in data-frames 1 Chapter-1 & 2
Data summarization and descriptive statistics. 1 Chapter-1 &2
9
Highlights
Dispersion, Range, Standard deviation, Chebyshev’s 2 Chapter-1 &
theorem; Population v/s sample variance and standard
10
deviation, Skewness; Kurtosis.

Correlations and visualizations: 2 Chapter-1 &2

11

Conditional probability. Motivation and Example 2 Chapter-3

Conditional probability. Definition
12 Independent events. Example
Independent events. Definition

Bayes's rule 2 Chapter-4

13

14 Class Test 1
15 Examples of random variables 1 Chapter-5
16 Mathematical definition of random variable 1 Chapter-5
Probability distribution and probability mass function 2 Chapter-5
17
(PMF)

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18 Binomial distribution 2 Chapter-5

Expected value of random variable. Motivation and 2 Chapter-5
19
definition
20 Expected value example and calculation: 2 Chapter-5

21 Expected value as best prediction: 2 Chapter-5

22 Variance of random variable. Motivation and definition 2 Chapter-5

Discrete random variables with infinite number of 3 Chapter-5

23
values
Saint Petersburg Paradox. Example of infinite 3 Chapter-5
24
expected value
25 Geometric and Poisson distributions 3 Chapter-5

Generating discrete random variables for generation 3 Chapter-5

26
and visualization of common distributions
27 Class Test 2

28 Linear transformations of random variables 3 Chapter-6

29 Sum of random variables. Expected value and variance. 3 Chapter-6

30 Joint probability distribution 3 Chapter-6

31 Marginal distribution 3 Chapter-6

32 Properties of covariance 3 Chapter-6

33 Correlation of two random variables 3 Chapter-6

35 Probability density function (PDF) 3 Chapter-6

36 Cumulative distribution function (CDF) 3 Chapter-6

37 Properties of CDF 3 Chapter-6

38 Linking PDF and CDF 3 Chapter-6

39 Examples of probability density functions 3 Chapter-6

40 Histogram as approximation to a graph of PDF 3 Chapter-6

Joint CDF and PDF. Level charts. Marginal PDF 3 Chapter-6

41

42 Classical and frequentist probability 3 Chapter-6

43 Bayes' theorem 3 Chapter-6&7

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Testing of Hypothesis 3 Chapter-8

44
One sample t test
Two sample t test 3 Chapter-8&9
45

7 Teaching-learning methodology
Faculty expects active participation from the students to create a positive learning environment.
Students will be assigned group assignments. Lecture and laboratory sessions will be conducted
as follows-
1. Lectures:
o Faculty will primarily use whiteboard (ppt) and Excel presentations for lecture
delivery.

2. Laboratory:
o Lab document containing details of the experiment will be uploaded on the
student portal before the lab every week.
o Faculty will grade the lab regularly. Late submission will invite a 20% penalty.
Faculty expects students to display academic honesty in the submission.
Students will be marked based on parameters like completion of lab
assignments, originality, logic developed, interaction during the lab,
submission, punctuality and discipline.
8. Active learning techniques
Active learning is a method of learning in which students are actively or experientially
involved in the learning process. The following active learning techniques will be
adopted for the course.
1. Blended Learning: some of the topics will be delivered in blended mode. Pre-
reading material/video links will be provided before the commencement of the
topic. This material will be posted on the student portal.
2. Games: Students will play games to understand concepts of probabilities
9. Course Material
The following course material will be uploaded on the student portal:
 Course Policy
 Lecture Presentations
 Books / Reference Books / NPTEL video lectures links (if any)
 Assignments
 Lab Manual

10. Course Outcome Attainment

The following means will be used to assess the attainment of course learning outcomes.
 Use of formal evaluation components of continuous evaluation, assignments,
laboratory work, and course-end survey
 Informal feedback during course conduction

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11. Academic Integrity Statement

Faculty expects academic integrity from all students. Students should refer to the
student resource book (SRB) for academic guidelines.

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