RIRIN SABANI

1205113057
FISIKA STATISTIK

1. What is the probability of getting a total of six points or less

when throwing 3 dice?
Answer :
111
112
113
114
115
116

121
122
123
124
125
126

131
132
133
134
135
136

141
142
143
144
145
146

151
152
153
154
155
156

161
162
163
164
165
166

211
212
213
214
215
216

221
222
223
224
225
226

231
232
233
234
235
236

241
242
243
244
245
246

251
252
253
254
255
256

261
262
263
264
265
266

311
312
313
314
315
316

321
322
323
324
325
326

331
332
333
334
335
336

341
342
343
344
345
346

351
352
353
354
355
356

361
362
363
364
365
366

411
412
413
414
415
416

421
422
423
424
425
426

431
432
433
434
435
436

441
442
443
444
445
446

451
452
453
454
455
456

461
462
463
464
465
466

511
512

521
522

531
532

541
542

551
552

561
562

513
514
515
516

523
524
525
526

533
534
535
536

543
544
545
546

553
554
555
556

563
564
565
566

611
612
613
614
615
616

621
622
623
624
625
626

631
632
633
634
635
636

641
642
643
644
645
646

651
652
653
654
655
656

661
662
663
664
665
666

So the amount of combinations should be multipled by 3:

N ( S )=6n =63=216
N(A) : 111, 112, 113, 114, 121, 122, 123, 131, 132, 141
211, 212, 213, 221, 222, 231
311, 312, 321
411
n ( A )=10+ 6+3+1=20

P ( A )=

n( A) 20
5
=
=
n (S) 216 54

2. Consider a game in which 6 true dice are rolled. find the

probability of obtaining
a. exactly one ace
b. at least one ace
c. exactly two aces
answer :
a) P(exactly 1 Ace)
5

P ( exactly 1 ace )=6

1 5

=0,40188 0,4
6 6

( )( )

b) P(at least 1 Ace)

6

( ( ))

P ( at least 1 ace )= 1

5
6

=0,665

c) P(exactly 2 Aces)
2

P ( exactly 2 aces )=2 4

1
5

=0,107
6
6

()()

3. In the game of Russian roulette, one inserts a single

cartridge into the drum of a revolver, leaving the other five
chambers of the drum empty. One then spins the drum, aims
at ones head and pulls the trigger.
a. What is the probability of still being alive after playing
the game N times?
b. What is the probability of surviving (N 1) turns in this
game and then being shot the N th time on pulls the
trigger?
c. What is the mean number of times a player gets the
opportunity of pulling the trigger in this macabre game?
Answer :
a. The probability of surviving one round of the game is 5/6.
Assuming that the chamber is re-spun after each round, the
probability of surviving N rounds is then (5/6)N.
b. The probability of dying immediately after having survived some
number of turns is 1/6, so the probability of dying on the Nth turn
is (1/6)(5/6)N1.
c. To find the mean number of turns one can play before death, we
compute the sum

n np (n) , with p(n) the probability of the

game lasting exactly n turns.

1 5 n1
n= n
6 6
n1

( )( )

Using the derivative trick we note that

n nq n1=

d
n q n . Also
dq

noting that the sum of geometric series is given by

we find.

n 61 56
n1

( )( )

n1

1 d
1
=
6 dq 1q

( )

5
q=
6

1
=
6

1
=6
5 2
1
6

( )

n qn=

1
1q