In 2005 the EAI reached its highest level, and in 2006 it started to show significant year-over-year reductions.

Starting point of
continuous y-o-y
declines
(Apr. 2006)

Highest point of
the index
(Nov. 2005)

160

GDB Economic Activity Index

10%
9%

155
150
First y-o-y
increase
(Nov. 2011)

1.9%

2.6%
2.2%
1.3%

4%

0.6%
0.5%

115

2%

2.7%
2.4%
2.0% 2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9% 1.0%
0.6%
0.1%

2.1%

1.1% 1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%0.5%
-0.2%

120

6%

3%

135

125

7%

5%

140

130

8%

0%
-1%

-0.6%

-0.6%-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.3%-1.1%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-1.9%
-1.9%-1.9%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-3.2%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-3.5%

-0.6%

-1.4%

-2.8%
-3.1%

-3.9%
-4.2%-4.2% -4.2%
-4.4% -4.4%
-4.7%
-5.1%

-4.0%

-5.0%
-5.4%
-5.5%
-5.8%-5.7%
-5.8%
-5.9%
-6.0%-6.0%
-6.1%
-6.2%
-6.2%

110

1%

-1.7%
-1.9% -1.9%
-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.6%-2.6% -2.8%
-2.7%
-3.3%
-3.5%

-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.6%

-1.6%
-2.0%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-3.4%

-3.5%
-3.7%
-4.0%-3.8%
-4.1%
-4.3%
-4.4%

Percent

-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%

105
154.3
154.2
153.6
155.1
156.2
156.4
154.8
154.9
155.5
155.8
156.4
155.7
155.9
154.9
154.5
154.2
154.2
153.4
153.0
152.7
153.8
154.9
155.1
154.6
153.8
152.5
151.5
150.6
151.3
151.3
151.9
151.3
151.1
150.7
150.4
149.2
148.6
148.2
147.5
147.2
146.4
146.4
145.6
145.3
144.7
144.1
143.2
143.0
142.1
140.6
138.9
138.2
137.3
137.3
137.2
136.6
136.4
135.5
135.4
135.2
133.9
133.7
133.3
133.9
133.5
132.2
130.9
130.9
131.6
132.3
131.8
130.8
130.4
130.5
130.3
130.1
129.8
129.6
128.6
127.9
129.1
130.5
132.0
131.9
132.3
132.4
131.6
131.8
131.4
131.9
131.2
131.3
132.2
133.2
133.9
132.7
131.6
130.3
129.0
128.8
128.4
127.4
126.0
125.6
127.2
128.3
128.3
127.0
127.0

Index (January 1980 = 100)

145

Return to
the y-o-y
reductions
(Jan. 2013)

100

-9%
-10%

Month

Value

Year-on-year percent change

14

 In January 2014, the GDB-EAI reflected a 3.5% y-o-y reduction, after showing a 4.3% y-o-y decrease in
December 2013.

GDB Economic Activity Index

140

10%

8%

135

6%
130

125

120

-2.8%
-3.1%
-3.8%
-4.0%

115

-1.4%
-1.7% -1.9%
-1.9%
-2.2%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.6% -2.6%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-3.3%
-3.5%

2%

0%

-1.6%
-2.0%
-2.3%
-2.3%

-2%

-3.4%
-3.5%
-3.7%
-4.0% -3.8%
-4.1%
-4.3%
-4.4%

-4.1%
-4.6%

-5.0%

Percent

-4%

110 -5.8%
-6%
105

-8%

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Nov-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

May-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Nov-11

Sep-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

Jan-11

Nov-10

Sep-10

Jul-10

May-10

-10%
Mar-10

100
Jan-10

Index (January 1980 = 100)

4%

2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.5% 1.2%
1.5%
1.4%
1.0% 1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
-0.6%

Month
Value (Left Hand Side)

Year over year percent change (Right Hand Side)

13

Changes to the new GDB-EAI (4)

...in terms of the year-over-year percent changes. The y-o-y percent changes
remained similar to the previous estimates for the past three years.

Economic Activity Index

(Year-over-year growth rate)
Percent change (y-oy)

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jan-81

Jan-83

Jan-85

Jan-87

Jan-89

Jan-91

Jan-93

Jan-95

Jan-97

GDB-EAI previous

Jan-99

Jan-01

Jan-03

Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

GDB-EAI new