BAI GIANG

XAC SUAT THONG KE

Ta goi bang tren la Luat phan phoi cua ai lng ngau nhien X. T luat
phan phoi cua X ta co the tnh xac suat e X nhan cac gia tr tren mot
tap cho trc, chang han vi i < j ta co:

(GV: Tran Ngoc Hoi - 2009)

P(xi X xj) = pi ++ pj =

p
k=i

CHNG 2

AI LNG NGAU NHIEN

VA PHAN PHOI XAC SUAT
1. Khai niem ve ai lng ngau nhien.
1.1. nh ngha. ai lng ngau nhien hay bien ngau nhien la mot
ai lng nhan gia tr thc tuy theo ket qua cua phep th. Ta dung
cac k t X, Y, Z, ch cac ai lng ngau nhien.
cac k t x, y, z, ch gia tr cua cac ai lng ngau nhien.
1.2. Phan loai. Ta chia ai lng ngau nhien thanh hai loai:
1) Loai ri rac: La loai ai lng ngau nhien ch nhan hu han
hoac vo han em c cac gia tr.
V du. Tien hanh n th nghiem. Goi X la so th nghiem thanh cong.
Khi o X la ai lng ngau nhien ri rac ch nhan n+1 gia tr 0; 1;..; n.
2) Loai lien tuc. La loai ai lng ngau nhien nhan vo han khong
em c cac gia tr ma thong thng cac gia tr nay lap kn mot oan
nao o trong tap cac so thc.
V du. Gia s nhiet o trong nam 2007 tai mot a phng dao ong
t 20o C en 33o C. T (oC) la nhiet o o c tai a phng o, ta co T
la ai lng ngau nhien lien tuc nhan cac gia tr tren [20,33].
1.3. Luat phan phoi:
1) Trng hp ri rac. Vi X la mot ai lng ngau nhien ri
rac nhan cac gia tr tang dan : x0, x1,, xn, ta lap bang:
X
P
trong o:
pk = P(X = xk) 0

p
k =1

x1
p1

x2
p2

................... xn
................... pn

vi k = 1, 2, , n.

= 1 , ngha la p1 + p2 ++ pn = 1.

V du. Mot lo hang cha 10 san pham, trong o co 6 san pham tot
va 4 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra 2 san pham. Goi X
la so san pham tot co trong 2 san pham chon ra. Tm luat phan phoi
cua X.
Giai. Ta thay X la ai lng ngau nhien ri rac co the nhan cac gia tr
la 0, 1, 2. Ap dung cong thc tnh xac suat la chon ta c:
0

2
4
p0 = P( X = 0) = C 6 C
= ;
2
C10 15
1
1
8
4
p1 = P( X = 1) = C 6 C
= ;
2
15
C10
2
0
1
C
6 C4
p 2 = P ( X = 2) =
= .
2
C10 3

Vay luat phan phoi cua X la

X
P

0
1
2
2/15 8/15 1/3

2) Trng hp lien tuc. Trng hp X lien tuc, thay cho viec liet
ke cac gia tr cua X dong tren, ta ch ra oan [a,b] ma X nhan gia tr
oan o (a, b co the hu han hoac vo han). Con thay cho xac suat p0, p1,,
pn ta a ra ham mat o f(x) [f(x) tng ng vi P(X = x)] thoa cac tnh
chat sau:
f(x) 0 vi moi x [a,b].
b

f ( x)dx = 1.
a

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Ngoai ra cac bien co A0 = X = x1, A2 = X = x2,..., An = X = xn tao

thanh mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi.

P ( X ) = f ( x)dx.
1

Nh vay, Mod(X) la gia tr tin chac nhat cua X, tc la gia tr ma X

thng lay nhat. Chu y rang Mod(X) co the nhan nhieu gia tr khac
nhau.
V du. Xet lai v du tren, ta co
X
P
T nh ngha cua ham mat o ta thay vi x kha be ta co he thc xap
x:
P(x - x X x + x) 2f(x)x.
That vay, khi x kha be ta co:
P(x x X x + x) =

x +x

x x

f (t)dt

x +x

x x

Nh vay, vi x khong oi th
[x-x ; x+x ] t le vi f(x):

f (x)dt f (x)

x + x

dt 2f (x)x.

0
1
2
2/15 8/15 1/3

Do o Mod(X) = 1.
2.2. Ky vong
1) V du minh hoa. Trc khi a ra nh ngha ve ky vong, ta
xet mot v du minh hoa nh sau: Mot lp hoc 100 sinh vien thi mon Anh
van vi ket qua nh sau:

x x

iem
So sinh vien

xac suat e X lay gia tr thuoc

4
15

5
7 8
30 35 20

Nh vay, neu goi X la iem mon Anh van cua mot sinh vien trong lp,
ta thay X la ai lung ngau nhien ri rac co luat phan phoi nh sau:

ieu nay cho thay tai iem x nao ma gia tr cua ham f(x) ln hn th
lan can cua iem o se tap trung mot xac suat ln hn, ngha la X nhan
nhieu gia tr trong lan can iem o hn. Chnh v the ma ham f(x) co
ten la ham mat o.
2. Cac ac so cua ai lng ngau nhien
2.1. Mode. Mode cua ai lng ngau nhien X, k hieu Mod(X), la gia
tr x0 cua X c xac nh nh sau:
Neu X ri rac th x0 la gia tr ma xac suat P(X = x0) ln nhat trong
so cac xac suat P(X = x).
Neu X lien tuc th x0 la gia tr ma ham mat o f(x) at gia tr ln
nhat.

X
P

4
0,15

5
0,3

7
0,35

8
0,2

So thc M(X) = 4.0,15 + 5.0,3 + 7.0,35 + 8.0,2 = 6,15 c goi la ky

vong cua X. Chu y rang ta co the viet:

M (X ) =

4.15 + 5.30 + 7.35 + 8.20

100

Vay ky vong M(X) chnh la iem trung bnh mon Anh van cua lp tren.
V du tren minh hoa cho nh ngha tong quat sau:
2) nh ngha. Ky vong cua ai lng ngau nhien X, k hieu M(X),
la so thc c xac nh nh sau:
Neu X ri rac co luat phan phoi

X
x1
x2
.. xn
P
p1
p2
. pn
th M(X) =

xk pk , ngha la M(X) = x1p1 + x2p2++ xnpn.

k =1

Neu X lien tuc vi ham mat o f(x) co mien xac nh [a,b] th

b

M ( X ) = a xf ( x) dx.
3

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V du. Xet lai v du a xet tren, ta co X co phan phoi nh sau:

X
0
1
2
P
2/15 8/15 1/3
Do o ky vong cua X la
M(X) = 0.2/15 + 1.8/15 + 2.1/3 = 1,2.
3) Y ngha cua ky vong. Ky vong cua ai lng ngau nhien X la
gia tr trung bnh (tnh theo xac suat) cua X. o la tam iem cua phan
phoi ma cac gia tr cua X c phan bo xung quanh.
4) Tnh chat. Ky vong co cac tnh chat sau:
4.1. Tnh chat 1. Ky vong cua mot ai lng ngau nhien hang bang
chnh hang so o, ngha la:
M(C) = C
(C: Const).
4.2. Tnh chat 2. Vi la hang so ta co M(X) = M(X).
4.3. Tnh chat 3. Ky vong cua tong hai ai lng ngau nhien bang
tong cua hai ky vong thanh phan, ngha la:
M(X + Y) = M(X) + M(Y).
4.4. Tnh chat 4. Ky vong cua tch hai ai lng ngau nhien oc lap
bang tch cua hai ky vong thanh phan (X, Y oc lap khi vi moi x, y, cac
bien co X = x va Y = y oc lap), ngha la:
M(XY) = M(X)M(Y).
vi moi X, Y oc lap.
5) Chng minh.
Tnh chat 1. ai lng ngau nhien hang C ch nhan mot gia tr la
C vi xac suat bang 1. Do o M(C) = C.1 = C.
Tnh chat 2. Gia s X co phan phoi nh sau:
X
x1
x2
..
P
p1
p2
.
Khi o, vi la hang so, X co phan phoi nh sau:
X
x1 x2 ..
P
p1
p2
.

xn
pn
xn
pn

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Suy ra ky vong cua X la:

M(X) =

k =1

k =1

xk pk = xk pk = M(X).

Tnh chat 3. Gia s X, Y co phan phoi nh sau:

x2
.. xn
X
x1
P
p1
p2
. pn
Y
y1
y2
.. ym
P
q1
q2
. qm
Khi o, X + Y nhan cac gia tr xi + yj. at pij = P(X = xi, Y = yj). Ta co
pi = P(X = xi) = P(Y = y1)P(X = xi/Y = y1)+...+ P(Y = ym)P(X = xi/Y = ym)
= P(X = xi ,Y = y1)+...+ P(X = xi , Y = ym) = pi1+...+pim.
Nh vay

pi =

M(X + Y) =

pij
j =1

va tng t, q j = p ij . Suy ra:

i =1

i =1 j =1

i =1

j =1

j =1

i =1

(xi + y j )pij = xipij + y jpij = xi pij + y j pij

i =1 j =1

i =1

j=1

i =1 j=1

x ipi + y jq j = M(X) +M(Y)

Tnh chat 4. Gia s X, Y oc lap va co phan phoi nh trong chng

minh tnh chat 3. Khi o:
pij = P(X = xi, Y = yj) = P(X = xi)P(Y = yj) = piqj.
Suy ra:
n m
n m
n
n

M(XY) = (x i y j )p ij = (x i y j )p i q j = x i p i y jq j = M(X)M(Y) .
i =1 j = 1
i = 1 j=1
i =1
i =1

2.3. Phng sai va o lech chuan.

1) V du minh hoa. Trc khi a ra nh ngha ve phng sai, ta
xet mot v du minh hoa nh sau: Xet lai v du X la iem mon Anh van
cua sinh vien trong lp vi luat phan phoi nh sau:
X
4
5
7
8
P
0,15 0,3 0,35 0,2
Ta muon a ra mot so e anh gia mc o ong eu ve iem mon
Anh van cua sinh vien trong lp. Ta a biet iem trung bnh mon Anh
van cua lp la = M(X) = 6,15. Nh vay o lech ve iem mon Anh van
so vi iem trung bnh nay la X - co phan phoi nh sau:
6

X
P

2,15
0,15

1,15
0,3

0,85 1,85
0,35 0,2

X
P
th cong thc tren tr thanh

Mot cach t nhien, mot cau hoi c at ra la lieu rang ta co the chon so
nh y nh tren la gia tr trung bnh cua o lech X - , tc la M(X ),
c hay khong? Tuy nhien qua tnh toan ta thay ngay M(X-) = 0 va
nh vay ro rang khong the chon M(X ) e anh gia mc o ong eu
ve iem mon Anh van. Co the ly giai v sao M(X-) = 0 nh sau: Nhng
iem tren trung bnh va nhng diem di trung bnh cua sinh vien trong
lp a triet tieu lan nhau. e tranh ieu nay, ta xet bnh phng o lech
(X )2 vi luat phan phoi nh sau:
(X )2
P

(2,15)2
0,15

(1,15)2
0,3

(0,85)2
0,35

(1,85)2
0,2

va chon so a nh la gia tr trung bnh cua bnh phng o lech (X )2,

tc la M((X )2):
M((X-)2) = (2,15)20,15 + (1,15)20,3 + (0,85)20,35 + (1,85)20,2 = 2,0275.
Ro rang so nay ac trng cho mc o ong eu ve iem mon Anh
van cua sinh vien trong lp, ta goi so o la phng sai cua X. V du tren
minh hoa cho nh ngha tong quat sau:
2) nh ngha. Phng sai cua ai lng ngau nhien X, k hieu
D(X), la so thc khong am nh bi:
D(X) = M((X )2),
trong o = M(X) la ky vong cua X. Can bac hai cua phng sai c
goi la o lech chuan, k hieu ( X ) . Vay

( X ) = D( X ) .
3) Cong thc tnh phng sai. T nh ngha cua phng sai ta
co cong thc khac e tnh phng sai nh sau:

D(X) = M(X 2 ) [M(X)]2

trong o M(X2), M(X) lan lt la ky vong cua X2 va X. Nh vay,
Neu X ri rac co luat phan phoi
7

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x1
p1

D(X) =

x2
p2
n

x p
2
k

k =1

.. xn
. pn
n

( x k p k )2
k =1

Neu X lien tuc vi ham mat o f(x) co mien xac nh [a,b] th

D(X) =

a x

f (x)dx ( xf (x)dx)2
a

Chng minh.
D(X) = M[(X )2 ] = M(X 2 2X + 2 ) = M(X 2 ) M(2X) + M( 2 )
= M(X 2 ) 2M(X) + 2 = M(X 2 ) 2 + 2 = M(X 2 ) 2 = M(X 2 ) [M(X)]2

V du. Xet lai v du a xet tren, ta co X co phan phoi nh sau:

X
0
1
2
P
2/15 8/15 1/3
va ky vong cua X la M(X) = 1,2. Suy ra phng sai cua X la:
D(X) = M(X2) - [M(X)] 2 = 02.2/15 + 12.8/15 + 22.1/3 - (1,2)2 = 32/75
0,4267.
o lech chuan cua X la:

( X ) = D( X ) = 0,4267 0,6532.
4) Y ngha cua phng sai
Ta co:
= M(X) la ky vong cua X.
X - la o lech cua X so vi ky vong.
(X - )2 la bnh phng o lech cua X so vi ky vong.
D(X) = M((X - )2) gia tr trung bnh cua bnh phng o lech cua
X so vi ky vong.
Phng sai cua ai lng ngau nhien X chnh la gia tr trung bnh
cua bnh phng o lech gia cac gia tr cua X va tam iem ky vong.
Phng sai phan anh mc o ong eu va s phan bo cac gia tr cua X
xung quanh gia tr ky vong. Neu phng sai nho th nhieu gia tr cua X
tap trung gan ky vong, con neu phng sai ln th nhieu gia tr cua X
phan tan xa ky vong.
8

Trong thc te, thong thng ky vong M(X) la gia tr qui nh, chang
han ng knh qui nh, trong lng qui nh, Con thc te san xuat ra
la ai lng ngau nhien X. Do o, trong cong nghiep, phng sai bieu th
o chnh xac cua san xuat. Trong chan nuoi, phng sai bieu th mc o
ong eu cua an gia suc, Trong trong trot, phng sai bieu th mc o
on nh cua nang suat cay trong,
5) Tnh chat. Phng sai co cac tnh chat sau:
Tnh chat 1. Phng sai cua mot ai lng ngau nhien hang bang
0, ngha la:
D(C) = 0
(C: Const).
Tnh chat 2. Vi la hang so ta co
D(X) = 2(D(X).

570ES,...) e tnh ky vong, phng sai va o lech chuan cua ai lng ngau
nhien ri rac.
V du. Xet ai lng ngau nhien ri rac X co phan phoi nh sau:
X
P

0
2/15

1
2
8/15 1/3

a) oi vi loai may tnh CASIO 500 va 570MS:

1) Vao MODE SD: Bam MODE (vai lan...) va bam so ng vi SD, tren man
hnh se hien len ch SD.
2) Xoa bo nh thong ke: Bam SHIFT MODE 1 (man hnh hien len Stat
clear) = AC . Kiem tra lai: Bam nut tron hoac thay n = va goc so 0
la a xoa.
3) Nhap so lieu: Bam xi SHIFT , pi M+ (khi bam SHIFT ,

tren man

hnh hien len dau ;). Cu the, ta bam:

Tnh chat 3. Phng sai cua tong hai ai lng ngau nhien oc lap
bang tong cua hai phng sai thanh phan, ngha la:
D(X + Y) = D(X) + D(Y).

0 SHIFT , 2 a b/c

5 M+

1 SHIFT , 8 a b/c

5 M+

2 SHIFT , 1 a b/c

M+

4) Kiem tra va sa so lieu sai: Bam nut tron e kiem tra viec nhap so

vi moi X, Y oc lap.

lieu. Thay so lieu nao sai th e man hnh ngay so lieu o, nhap so lieu ung
va bam = th so lieu mi se thay cho so lieu cu.

Chng minh.

V du. Nhap sai 0 SHIFT , 2 a b/c

Tnh chat 1. D(C) = M(C2) [M(C)]2 = C2 C2 = 0.

Tnh chat 2. Ta co:
D(C) = M(2C2) [M(C)]2 = 2M(C2) [M(C)]2
= 2M(C2) 2[M(C)]2 = 2(M(C2) [M(C)]2) = 2D(C)
Tnh chat 3. Vi X, Y oc lap, ta co:
D(X + Y) = M[(X+Y)2] M[(X+Y)]2 = M(X2 + 2XY + Y2] [M(X) + M(Y)]2
= M(X2 ) + M(2XY) + M(Y2) ([M(X)]2 + 2M(X)M(Y) + [M(Y)]2)
= M(X2 ) + 2M(Y)M(Y)+ M(Y2) [M(X)]2 - 2M(X)M(Y) - [M(Y)]2
= M(X2 ) [M(X)]2 + M(Y2) - [M(Y)]2 = D(X) + D(Y)
2.4 S dung may tnh e tnh cac ac so. Ta co the s dung phan
mem thong ke trong cac may tnh bo tui CASIO 500MS, 570MS, 500ES,
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5 M+ . Khi kiem tra ta thay

tren man hnh hien ra:

- x1 = 0 (ung).
- Freq1 = 2/25 (sai)
Sa nh sau: e man hnh Freq1 = 2/25, bam
th nhan c so lieu ung Freq1 = 2/15.

2 a b/c

5 =

So lieu nao b nhap d th e man hnh so lieu o va bam

SHIFT M+ th toan bo so lieu o (gom gia tr cua X va xac suat tng ng)

se b xoa. Chang han, nhap d 3 SHIFT , 3 a b/c

M+ . Khi kiem tra ta

thay x4 = 3 (d). Ta e man hnh so lieu o va bam SHIFT M+ th toan bo

so lieu d (gom gia tr cua X = 3 va xac suat tng ng 3/4) se b xoa.
Chu y. Sau khi kiem tra viec nhap so lieu xong, phai bam AC e
xoa man hnh va thoat khoi che o chnh sa.
5) oc ket qua:

10

ai lng can tm
Ky vong M(X)

SHIFT 2 1 =

Thao tac

o lech chuan (X)

SHIFT 2 2 =

Ket qua
X = 1.2

Ghi chu
M(X) = X

xn = 0, 6532. (X) = xn

Phng sai D(X) = [(X)]2= (0,6532)2= 0,4267

V du: Xet ai lng ngau nhien X co luat phan phoi nh sau:

X 40 50 60
70
80
90 100 110
P 0,03 0,1 0,12 0,15 0,28 0,16 0,11 0,05
Tm ky vong, o lech chuan va phng sai cua X.
Giai. Bam may tnh nh tren ta c:

b) oi vi loai may tnh CASIO 500 va 570ES:

- Ky vong: M(X) =

1) Khai bao cot tan so: Bam SHIFT SETUP 4 1

x p
k

k =0

(Bam bang cach bam nut tron xuong)

2) Vao Mode Thong ke: Bam MODE 3 1 (hoac MODE 2 1 cho 500ES)
(Tren man hnh se hien len ch STAT)
3) Nhap so lieu: Nh trong bang sau:

- Phng sai: D(X) =

= 77,2.

x p
2
k

k =0

- o lech chuan: (X) =

[M(X)]2 = (17, 2673)2 .

D(X) 17, 2673

3. Phan phoi sieu boi

3.1. V du m au. Mot lo hang cha N san pham, trong o co
ung NA (0 < NA < N) san pham loai A. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra n
(0 < n < N) san pham. Goi X la so san pham loai A co trong n san pham
chon ra. Khi o X la ai lng ngau nhien nhan cac gia tr nguyen k
c tnh theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon:

4) Kiem tra va sa so lieu sai: Bam nut tron e kiem tra viec nhap so lieu.
Thay so lieu nao sai th e con tro ngay so lieu o, nhap so lieu ung va bam

= th so lieu mi se thay cho so lieu cu.

So lieu nao b nhap d th e con tro so lieu o va bam DEL th
toan bo so lieu o (gom gia tr cua X va xac suat tng ng) se b xoa.
Chu y. Sau khi kiem tra viec nhap so lieu xong, phai bam AC e
xoa man hnh va thoat khoi che o chnh sa. Trong qua trnh xu ly so lieu,
muon xem lai bang so lieu th bam SHIFT 1 2

Cac gia tr k cua X la cac so nguyen thoa:

0 k N A ;
0 k N A ;

max{0; n + N A N} k min{n, N A }.

N
A

n + N A N k n

5) oc ket qua:
ai lng can tm
Ky vong M(X)

SHIFT 1 5 2 =

(X)

SHIFT 1 5 3 =

o lech chuan

nk

C N C N N
P( X = k ) =
n
CN

Thao tac

Ket qua

Ghi chu

X = 1.2

M(X) = X

xn = 0, 6532

(X) = xn

Phng sai D(X) = [(X)] = (0,6532) = 0,4267

11

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Ta noi X co phan phoi sieu boi theo nh ngha tong quat sau:
3.2. nh ngha. ai lng ngau nhien X c goi la co phan phoi
sieu boi, k hieu X H(N, NA, n) (H: ch cai au cua t Hypergeometric
ngha la sieu boi), trong o N, NA, n la cac so nguyen dng thoa
12

0 < n, NA < N, neu

X ri rac nhan cac gia tr k nguyen t
max{0; n + NA - N} en min{n; NA} theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon:
P(X = k) =

C C
C
k
NA

nk
N NA
n
N

Hien nhien cac gia tr tren eu khong am, hn na

C C

C
k

NA

nk

N NA
n

=1

ieu nay phu hp vi luat phan phoi cua mot ai lng ngau nhien ri
rac.
3.3. Cac ac so cua phan phoi sieu boi
Gia s X co phan phoi sieu boi X H(N, NA, n). Khi o X co cac ac
so nh sau:
1) Ky vong:

M ( X ) = np vi
2) Phng sai.

D( X ) = npq

N
p= A .
N

N n
N 1

vi

q = 1 p .

V du. Mot hop cha 12 bi gom 8 bi o va 4 bi xanh. Chon ngau

nhien t hop ra 4 bi. Goi X la so bi o co trong 4 bi chon ra. Hay tm
luat phan phoi cua X va xac nh ky vong, phng sai cua X.
Giai. Ta thay X co phan phoi sieu boi:
X H(N, NA, n) vi N = 12; NA = 8, n = 4.
Do o X nhan cac gia tr k nguyen t max {0; 4+8-12} = 0 en min{4; 8}
= 4 vi cac xac suat nh bi:
k

4k

P ( X = k ) = C 8 C4 4

C12

T ay ta tnh c
P(X = 0) = 1/495; P(X = 1) = 32/495; P(X = 2) = 168/495;
P(X = 3) = 224/495; P(X = 4) = 70/495.
Vay luat phan phoi cua X la:
X
0
1
2
3
4
P 1/495 32/495 168/495 224/495 70/495
13

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Ky vong cua X la

8
= 2, 667.
12
Phng sai cua X la
M(X) = np = 4.

D(X) = npq

N-n
8
8 12 - 4
= 4. (1 )
= 0, 6465.
N -1
12
12 12 - 1

4. Phan phoi nh thc

4.1. V du m au. Tien hanh n phep th oc lap trong nhng ieu
kien nh nhau. Gia s moi phep th, bien co A hoac xay ra vi xac
suat p khong oi, hoac khong xay ra vi xac suat q = 1 p. Goi X la
ai lng ngau nhien ch so lan bien co A xay ra trong n phep th. Khi
o X nhan n + 1 gia tr k = 0, 1, , n vi cac xac suat c tnh theo
cong thc Bernoulli:
P (X = k) = Cnp k q n k
k

Ta noi X co phan phoi nh thc theo nh ngha tong quat sau:

4.2. nh ngha. ai lng ngau nhien X c goi la co phan phoi
nh thc, k hieu X B(n,p) (B: Ch cai au cua t Binomial nghia la nh
thc), trong o n so nguyen dng va 0 < p < 1, neu X ri rac nhan
n + 1 gia tr nguyen 0, 1,, n vi cac xac suat c tnh theo theo cong
thc Bernoulli:

P ( X = k ) = C n p k q n k .
k

Hien nhien cac gia tr tren eu khong am, hn na

n

C p q

k =0

nk

= (q + p)n = 1

ieu nay phu hp vi luat phan phoi cua mot ai lng ngau nhien ri
rac.Trng hp
n = 1, ta con noi X co phan phoi Bernoulli, k hieu
X B(p).
4.3. Cac ac so cua phan phoi nh thc
Gia s X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p). Khi o X co cac ac so
nh sau:
1) Mode: Mod(X) = k, trong o k la so nguyen thoa
np q k np q + 1.
2) Ky vong:
M(X) = np.
3) Phng sai: D(X) = npq.

14

V du. Mot lo hang cha rat nhieu san pham, trong o t le san
pham loai tot la 60%. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra 5 san pham. Goi X
la so san pham tot co trong 5 san pham chon ra. Hay tm luat phan phoi
cua X. Xac nh ky vong va phng sai cua X. Hoi gia tr tin chac nhat
cua X la bao nhieu?
Giai. Ta xem viec chon mot san pham la thc hien mot phep th.
V lo hang co cha rat nhieu san pham nen co the xem viec chon ra 5
san pham la 5 phep th oc lap, trong moi phep th bien co A: San
pham thuoc loai tot xay ra vi xac suat p = 60% = 0,6 va khong xay ra
vi xac suat q = 1 p = 0,4. Do o X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p)
vi n = 5, p = 0,6. Suy ra X nhan 6 gia tr nguyen 0,1,, 5 vi cac xac
suat c tnh theo theo cong thc Bernoulli:

P ( X = k ) = C n p k q nk = C 5 (0,6) k (0,4) 5k .
k

T ay ta tnh c
P(X = 0) = 0,01024; P(X = 1) = 0,0768; P(X = 2) = 0,2304;
P(X = 3) = 0,3456; P(X = 4) = 0,2592; P(X = 5) = 0,07776.
Vay luat phan phoi cua X la:
X
P

0
1
2
3
4
5
0,01024 0,0768 0,2304 0,3456 0,2592 0,07776

- Ky vong cua X la M(X) =

- Phng sai cua X la

np = 5.0,6 = 3.

D(X) = npq = 5.0,6. 0,4 = 1,2.

- Gia tr tin chac nhat cua X chnh la Mod(X) = k vi k la so

nguyen thoa
np q k np q + 1 5. 0,6 0,4 k 5. 0,6 0,4 + 1

2,6 k 3,6

k = 3.
Vay gia tr tin chac nhat cua X la k = 3.
Ta cung co the tm lai c cac ket qua tren bang cach tnh toan
trc tiep da vao luat phan phoi cua X.
4.4. nh ly. Cho X la mot ai lng ngau nhien co phan phoi sieu
boi X H(N, NA, n). Gia s rang n rat nho so vi N. Khi o co the xap
x X bang ai lng ngau nhien Y co phan phoi nh thc : X Y, trong
o Y B(n,p) vi p =

NA
, ngha la:
N

15

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P (X = k) C np k q n k
k

(k = 0, 1, )

Nhan xet: V X co phan phoi sieu boi X H(N, NA, n) nen xac suat
P(X = k) ung ra phai c tnh theo cong thc xac suat la chon:
nk

C N C N N
P( X = k ) =
n
CN
A

Tuy nhien, nh nh ly tren, ta co the tnh xac suat tren theo cong thc
Bernoulli gon hn.
V du. Mot lo hang cha 10000 san pham, trong o co 8000 san
pham tot va 2000 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra 10 san
pham. Tnh xac suat chon c 7 san pham tot.
Giai. Goi X la so san pham tot co trong 10 san pham chon ra. Khi
o X co phan phoi sieu boi X H(N, NA, n) vi N = 10000; NA= 8000;
n =10. V n = 10 rat nho so vi N = 10000 nen ta co the xem nh X co
phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) vi n = 10; p = NA/N = 8000/10000 = 0,8.
Do o xac suat chon c 7 san pham tot la:
P (X = 7) = C10(0, 8)7 (0, 2)3 0, 2013.
7

5. Phan phoi Poisson

5.1. nh ngha. ai lng ngau nhien X c goi la co phan phoi
Poisson, k hieu X P(a), trong o hang so a > 0, neu X ri rac nhan
vo han em c cac gia tr nguyen k = 0,1,, vi cac xac suat nh
bi:

P (X = k) =

e aa k
k!

Hien nhien cac gia tr tren eu khong am, hn na

ea a k
k!
k =0
+

ak
k =0 k!

= e a

= e a e a = 1.

ieu nay phu hp vi luat phan phoi cua mot ai lng ngau nhien ri
rac.
5.2. Cac ac so cua phan phoi Poisson
Gia s X co phan phoi Poisson X P(a). Khi o X co cac ac so nh
sau:
1) Ky vong:
M(X) = a.
2) Phng sai: D(X) = a.
16


1
f, (x) =
e
2

5.3. Tnh chat. Gia s X1, X2 oc lap, co phan phoi Poisson

X1 P(a1), X2 P(a2). Khi o X1 + X2 cung co phan phoi Poisson:
X1 + X2 P(a1+ a2).
5.4. nh ly Poisson. Cho X la mot ai lng ngau nhien co phan
phoi nh thc X B(n,p). Gia s rang n kha ln va p kha be (thong
thng p < 0,1). Khi o co the xap x X bang ai lng ngau nhien Y co
phan phoi Poisson: X Y, trong o Y P(a) vi a = np, ngha la:

P (X = k)

ea a k
k!

(k = 0, 1, )

Nhan xet. V X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) nen xac suat

P(X = k) ung ra phai c tnh theo cong thc Bernoulli:

P ( X = k ) = C n p k q n k .
k

Tuy nhien, nh nh ly Poisson, ta co the tnh xac suat tren theo cong
thc gon hn c phat bieu trong cua nh ly.
V du. Mot may det co 1000 ong si. Xac suat e trong mot gi may
hoat ong co 1 ong si b t la 0,2%. Tm xac suat e trong mot gi co
khong qua 2 ong si b t.
Giai. Ta xem viec quan sat mot ong si trong khoang thi gian mot
gi may hoat ong la mot phep th. Khi o, do may det co 1000 ong si,
ta co 1000 phep th oc lap. Goi A la bien co ong si b t. Trong moi
phep th, bien co A xay ra vi xac suat p = 0,2% = 0,002 va khong xay
ra vi xac suat q = 1- p = 0,998. Do o, goi X la tong so ong si b t
trong mot gi hoat ong cua may th X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p)
vi n = 1000, p = 0,002. V n = 1000 kha ln va p = 0,002 kha be nen ta
co the xem X co phan phoi Poisson:
X P(a) vi a = np = 1000.0,002 = 2.
Xac suat e co khong qua 2 ong si b t trong mot gi hoat ong cua
may la:
P (0 X 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

e2 20 e2 21 e2 22
+
+
= 5e2 0, 6767.
0!
1!
2!

Hien nhien
+

f , ( x ) > 0 , hn na

f , ( x)dx =

ieu nay cho thay

1
2

2
+ ( x )
2 2

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dx = 1

(Tch phan Euler)

f , ( x) thoa cac tnh chat cua ham mat o.

6.2. Cac ac so cua phan phoi chuan.

Gia s X co phan phoi chuan X N(, 2). Khi o X co cac ac so
nh sau:
1) Mode:
Mod (X) = .
2) Ky vong:
M(X) = .
3) Phng sai: D(X) = 2.
6.3. Ham Gauss. Ham Gauss f(x) la ham mat o cua ai lng
ngau nhien X co phan phoi chuan chnh tac X N(0,1):
2

1 x2
f ( x) =
e .
2

Ham Gauss la ham so chan (ngha la f(-x) = f(x)), lien tuc tren R,

x
f (x) =
e
2

x2
2

= 0 x = 0 (y =

1
)
2

Bang bien thien:

o th cua ham Gauss oi xng qua truc tung nh sau:

6. Phan phoi chuan

6.1. nh ngha. ai lng ngau nhien X c goi la co phan phoi
chuan, k hieu X N(, 2) (N: Ch cai au tien cua t Normal ngha la
chuan), trong o , la cac hang so va > 0, neu X lien tuc va co ham
mat o xac nh tren R nh bi:
17

(x )2
2 2

18

Ham Laplace y = (x) la ham so le (ngha la (-x) = -(x)), lien tuc tren
R va co o th oi xng qua goc toa o nh sau:
Ngi ta a lap bang gia tr cua ham Gauss, trong o ghi cac gia tr f(x)
tren oan [0 ; 3,99]. Khi x > 3,99, ham Gauss giam rat cham, do o ta
xap x:
x > 3,99, f(x) f(3,99) 0,0001.
V du. Tra bang gia tr ham Gauss ta co:
f(1,14) 0,2083;
f(0,29) 0,3825;
f(-2,15) = f(2,15) 0,0396;
f(3,21) 0,0023;
f(-6,12) = f(6,12) f(3,99) 0,0001.

Ngi ta a lap bang gia tr cua ham Laplace, trong o ghi cac gia tr
cua (x) tren oan [0,5]. Khi x > 5, ham Laplace tang rat cham, do o
ta xap x:

6.4. Ham Laplace. Ham Laplace (x) la ham so xac nh tren R

nh bi:
2

1 x t2
e dt.
( x) =
2 0
Nhan xet: (x) =

f (t)dt vi f(t) la ham Gauss nen (x) = f(x) > 0,

0

x > 5, (x) (5) 0,5.

V du. Tra bang gia tr ham Laplaceta co:
(1,14) 0,3729;
(-2,15) = - (2,15) - 0,4842.
(-6,12) = - (6,12) - (5) -0,5.
6.5. Cong thc tnh xac suat cua phan phoi chuan
Cho X la mot ai lng ngau nhien co phan phoi chuan X N(, 2).
Khi o, xac suat e X lay cac gia tr thuoc [a; b] la:

do o (x) la ham tang.

b
a
) (
)

P(a X b) = (

(1)

trong o (x) la ham Laplace. That vay, theo nh ngha cua ham mat
o ta co;
b

P(a X b) = f, (x)dx =

Bang bien thien nh sau:

19

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1
e

2 a

20

(x )2
2 2

dx

oi bien bang cach at:

x
dx
t=
dt =

a
b
oi can: x = a t =
;x = b t =

Ta co:
b

1
P(a X b) =
e

2 a

1
2
1
2

(x )2
2

t2
2

t2

2) Vi k = 2, ta co Qui tac 2-sigma:

P(|X | 2) = 2(2) = 2.0, 4772 = 0, 9544 = 95, 44%.

dx

dt =

P(| X | ) = 2(1) = 2.0, 3413 = 0, 6826 = 68, 26%.

dt

3) Vi k = 3, ta co Qui tac

1
2
1
2

t2
2

t2

dt +

1
2

dt = (

t2
2

dt =

b
a
) (
)

6.6. Qui tac k-sigma

Cho X la mot ai lng ngau nhien co phan phoi chuan X N(, 2).
Khi o, vi moi k > 0 ta co:

P(| X | k) = 2(k)
That vay,

P(| X | k) = P( k X k)
= P( k X + k)
+ k
k
) (
)

= (k) ( k) = 2(k)

P(| X | 3 ) = 2 (3) = 2.0,49865 = 0,9973 = 99,73%.

Qui tac 3-sigma cho thay khi X co phan phoi chuan th hau het cac gia
tr cua X sai lech vi ky vong = M(X) khong qua 3 lan o lech chuan .
V du. Trong lng cua mot loai san pham la ai lng ngau nhien
co phan phoi chuan vi trong lng trung bnh 50kg va phng sai
100kg2. Mot san pham c xep vao loai A neu co trong lng t 45kg
en 55kg. Tnh t le san pham loai A cua loai san pham tren.
Giai. Goi X la trong lng cua loai san pham a cho. T gia thiet
ta suy ra X co phan phoi chuan X N(, 2) vi = 50, 2 = 100
( = 10). V mot san pham c xep vao loai A khi co trong lng t
45kg en 55kg ngha la 45 X 55 nen t le san pham loai A chnh
la xac suat P(45 X 55). Ap dung cong thc trong 6.5, ta co

55
45
55 50
45 50
) (
) = (
) (
)

10
10
= (0, 5) (0, 5) = 2(0, 5) = 2.0,1915 = 0, 383.

P(45 X 55) = (

= (

Minh hoa:

Qui tac k-sigma cho thay khi X co phan phoi chuan th xac suat e cac
gia tr cua X sai lech vi ky vong = M(X) khong qua k lan o lech
chuan la 2(k). Chang han,
1) Vi k = 1, ta co Qui tac 1-sigma:
21

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3-sigma:

(Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta c (0,5) = 0,1915). Vay t le san

pham loai A la 38,3%.
6.7. nh ly Moivre-Laplace. Cho X la mot ai lng ngau nhien
co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p). Gia s rang n kha ln va p khong
qua gan 0 cung khong qua gan 1 (thong thng 0,1 p 0,9). Khi
o co the xap x X bang ai lng ngau nhien Y co phan phoi chuan:
X Y, trong o Y N(, 2) vi = np, = npq (q = 1-p) ngha la:
1) P ( X = k )

f(

). (k = 0,1,2,)
22

2) P ( k 1 X k 2 ) (

k2

) (

k1

( k1 < k2)

trong o f(x) la ham Gauss va (x) la ham Laplace.

Nhan xet. V X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) nen xac suat
P(X = k) ung ra phai c tnh theo cong thc Bernoulli:

P ( X = k ) = C n p k q n k .
k

Nh vay, e giai bai toan, trc het ta tm xac suat e mot kien
c nhan khi khach hang kiem tra kien o. Theo gia thiet moi kien
cha 10 san pham gom 6 san pham tot va 4 san pham xau, khach hang
chon ngau nhien ra 3 san pham; neu thay co t nhat 2 san pham tot th
chon kien, ngha la neu chon c 2 tot, 1 xau hoac 3 tot th mi chon
kien. Do o theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon ta co xac suat e mot
kien c nhan la:
2

Tuy nhien, nh nh ly Moivre-Laplace, ta co the tnh xac suat tren

theo cong thc gon hn c phat bieu trong nh ly.
V du. San pham do mot nha may san xuat c ong thanh tng
kien, moi kien gom 10 san pham, trong o co 6 san pham tot va 4 san
pham xau. Khach hang chon cach kiem tra nh sau: T moi kien chon
ngau nhien ra 3 san pham; neu thay co t nhat 2 san pham tot th nhan
kien o, ngc lai th loai kien o. Kiem tra 140 kien trong rat nhieu
kien. Tnh xac suat e co:
a) 93 kien c nhan.
b) T 90 en 110 kien c nhan.
Giai. Ta lu y S giai nh sau:
Bc 1: Tnh xac suat p mt kien c nhan khi khach hang kiem tra
kien o.
Bc 2: Gi X la s kien c nhan trong n kien c kiem tra (n kha
ln, ay n =140 ). Khi o X co phi nh thc X B(n,p). Co 2
trng hp xy ra:
a) p nho (thong thng p < 0,1): Xap x X bang phan phoi
Poisson: X P(a) vi a = np, ngha la

P (X = k)

e a
k!

(k = 0, 1, )

p), ngha la:

P ( k 1 X k 2 ) (

(k = 0,1,2,)

k2

) (

C6C4 + C6C4 = 2 .
3
3
C 10
C 10 3

Ta xem viec kiem tra mot kien la mot phep th. Khi o, khach hang
kiem tra 140 kien nen ta co 140 phep th oc lap. Goi A la bien co
kien hang c nhan. Theo ket qua tren, trong moi phep th, bien co A
xay ra vi xac suat p = 2/3 va khong xay ra vi xac suat q = 1- p = 1/3.
Do o, goi X la tong so kien hang c nhan trong 140 kien c kiem
tra, X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) vi n = 140, p = 2/3. V n = 140
kha ln va p = 2/3 khong qua gan 0 cung khong qua gan 1 nen ta co
the xem X co phan phoi chuan nh sau:
X N(, 2)
vi
= np = 140.2/3 = 93,3333, = npq = 140.2 / 3.1 / 3 = 5,5777.
a)

Xac suat e co 93 kien c nhan la:

1 93
1
93 93, 33
P (X = 93) = f (
)=
f(
)

5, 5777
5, 5777
1
1
0, 3982
=
f (0, 06) =
f (0, 06) =
= 0, 0714.
5, 5777
5, 5777
5, 5777
(Tra bang gia tr ham Gauss ta c f(0,06) = 0,3982).
b)

Xac suat e co t 90 en 110 kien c nhan la:

b) p khong nho cung khong ln (thong thng 0,1 p 0,9): Xap

x X bang phan phoi chuan X N(, 2) vi = np, = npq (q = 1-

1 k
P (X = k) f (
)

p = P3 ( 2 k 3) = P3 ( 2 ) + P3 (3) =

k1

( k1 < k2)

trong o f(x) la ham Gauss va (x) la ham Laplace.

23

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110
90
110 93, 3333
90 93, 3333
P (90 X 110) = (
) (
) = (
) (
)

5, 5777
5, 5777
= (2, 99) (0, 6) = (2, 99) + (0, 6) = 0, 498625 + 0, 2257 = 0,724325.

(Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta c (2,99)=0,498625; (0,6) = 0,2257).

6.8. Khai niem ve nh ly gii han trung tam.
nh ly gii han trung tam la mot nh ly co nhieu ng dung trong
thc te ma mot he qua cua nh ly nay la: Neu ai lng ngau nhien X
la tong cua mot so ln ( 30) cac ai lng ngau nhien oc lap va gia
tr cua moi ai lng ong vai tro rat nho trong tong o th X se co
phan phoi xap x phan phoi chuan, nghia la:
24

Neu X = X1 + X2 +...+ Xn vi n kha ln, trong o cac Xi oc lap va

moi Xi co anh hng rat t en X, th co the xem nh X co phan phoi
chuan.
Y ngha cua nh ly gii han trung tam la khi co nhieu nhan to
ngau nhien tac ong sao cho khong co nhan to nao vt troi lan at cac
nhan to khac th ket qua cua chung xap x phan phoi chuan. ieu nay
cho thay s pho bien cua phan phoi chuan trong thc te. Chang han, khi
tnh hnh san xuat bnh thng th sai lam cua phep o trong vat ly
thng la do tong cua nhieu ai lng ngau nhien ma moi ai lng anh
hng khong ang ke nen sai lam o se co phan phoi xap x phan phoi
chuan. Tng t, trong nong nghiep, khi tnh hnh san suat bnh thng
th nang suat cua mot loai cay trong tren nhng tha ruong khac nhau;
trong lng cua gia suc cung o tuoi trong ieu kien cham soc nh
nhau, la nhng ai lng ngau nhien co phan phoi xap x phan phoi
chuan.

TOM TAT NOI DUNG CHNG 2

1. Luat phan phoi cua ai lng ngau nhien.
2. Cac ac so cua ai lng ngau nhien: Mode, Ky vong, Phng sai.
3. Phan phoi sieu boi: X H(N, NA, n) vi xac suat nh bi:
nk

C N C N N
P( X = k ) =
n
CN
A

Khi o:

NA
.
N
N n
D( X ) = npq
vi q = 1 p .
N 1

Ky vong: M ( X ) = np

Phng sai:

vi

p=

4. Phan phoi nh thc: X B(n,p) vi xac suat nh bi:

P ( X = k ) = Cn p q
k

nk

Khi o:
-

Mode: Mod(X) = k, trong o k la so nguyen thoa

np q k np q + 1.
Ky vong: M(X) = np.
Phng sai:
D(X) = npq.
5. Phan phoi Poisson: X P(a) vi xac suat nh bi:

P (X = k) =

ea a k
.
k!

25

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Khi o:
Ky vong: M(X) = a.
Phng sai:
D(X) = a.
6. Phan phoi chuan: X N(, 2)
Khi o:
a) Cac ac so:
- Mode: Mod(X) = .
- Ky vong:
M(X) = .
- Phng sai: D(X) = 2.
b) Cong thc tnh xac suat:

P ( a X b) = (

) (

).

7. Xap x phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p):

X co phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p) vi n kha ln. Co 2 trng hp:
a) Trng hp 1: p kha nho (thong thng p < 0,1).
Khi o co xem X co phan phoi Poisson: X P(a) vi a = np, ngha
la:

ea a k
P (X = k)
k!

(k = 0, 1, )

( Thay v tnh theo cong thc Bernoulli P (X = k) = C np k q n k )

k

b) Trng hp 2: p khong qua gan 0 cung nh 1 (thong thng

0,1 p 0,9).
Khi o co xem X co phan phoi chuan: X N(, 2) vi

= np, = npq (q = 1-p), ngha la:

- P (X = k)

f(

) (k = 0, 1, 2,)

- P ( k 1 X k 2 ) (

k2

) (

trong o f(x) la ham Gauss;

(x) la ham Laplace.

k1

( k1 < k2)

( Thay v tnh theo cong thc Bernoulli P (X = k) = C np k q n k ).

k

Chu y. Ta phai tm xac suat p trong phan phoi nh thc X B(n,p).

Sau o, tuy theo p nho hay ln, ma ta xap x X bang phan phoi Poisson
hay phan phoi chuan.
26

BAI TAP CHNG 2

Bai 2.1: Nc giai khat c ch t Sai Gon i Vung Tau. Moi xe ch
1000 chai bia Sai Gon, 2000 chai coca va 800 chai nc trai cay. Xac
suat e 1 chai moi loai b be tren ng i tng ng la 0,2%; 0,11% va
0,3%. Neu khong qua 1 chai b be th lai xe c thng.
a) Tnh xac suat co t nhat 1 chai bia Sai Gon b be.
b) Tnh xac suat e lai xe c thng.
c) Lai xe phai ch t mat may chuyen e xac suat co t nhat mot chuyen
c thng khong nho hn 0,9?
Bai 2.2: Mot may tnh gom 1000 linh kien A, 800 linh kien B va 2000
linh kien C. Xacsuat hong cua ba linh kien o lan lt la 0,02%;
0,0125% va 0,005%. May tnh ngng hoat ong khi so linh kien hong
nhieu hn 1. Cac linh kien hong oc lap vi nhau.
a) Tnh xacsuat e co t nhat 1 linh kien B b hong.
b) Tnh xac suat e may tnh ngng hoat ong.
c) Gia s trong may a co 1 linh kien hong. Tnh xac suat e may tnh
ngng hoat ong.
Bai 2.3: Trong lng cua mot loai san pham c quan sat la mot ai
lng ngau nhien co phan phoi chuan vi trung bnh 50kg va phng sai
100kg2 . Nhng san pham co trong lng t 45kg en 70kg c xep vao
loai A. Chon ngau nhien 100 san pham (trong rat nhieu san pham).
Tnh xac suat e
a) co ung 70 san pham loai A.
b) co khong qua 60 san pham loai A.
c) co t nhat 65 san pham loai A.
Bai 2.4: San pham trong mot nha may c ong thanh tng kien, moi
kien gom 14 san pham trong o co 8 san pham loai A va 6 san pham
loai B. Khach hang chon cach kiem tra nh sau: t moi kien lay ra 4 san
pham; neu thay so san pham thuoc loai A nhieu hn so san pham thuoc
loai B th mi nhan kien o; ngc lai th loai kien o. Kiem tra 100
kien (trong rat nhieu kien). Tnh xac suat e
a) co 42 kien c nhan.
b) co t 40 en 45 kien c nhan.
c) co t nhat 42 kien c nhan.

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Bai 2.5: San pham trong mot nha may c ong thanh tng kien, moi
kien gom 10 san pham So san pham loai A trong cac hop la X co phan
phoi nh sau:
X
P

0.9

0.1

Khach hang chon cach kiem tra nh sau: t moi kien lay ra 2 san pham;
neu thay ca 2 san pham eu loai A th mi nhan kien o; ngc lai th
loai kien o. Kiem tra 144 kien (trong rat nhieu kien).
a) Tnh xac suat e co 53 kien c nhan.
b) Tnh xac suat e co t 52 en 56 kien c nhan.
c) Phai kiem tra t nhat bao nhieu kien e xac suat co t nhat 1 kien
c nhan khong nho hn 95%?
Bai 2.6: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le san pham at tieu chuan
la 80% va mot may khac cung san xuat loai san pham nay vi t le san
pham at tieu chuan la 60%. Chon ngau nhien mot may va cho san xuat
100 san pham. Tnh xac suat e
a) co 70 san pham at tieu chuan.
b) co t 70 en 90 san pham at tieu chuan.
c) co khong t hn 70 san pham at tieu chuan.
Bai 2.7: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le phe pham la 1% va mot
may khac cung san xuat loai san pham nay vi t le phe pham la 2%.
Chon ngau nhien mot may va cho san xuat 1000 san pham. Tnh xac
suat e
a) co 14 phe pham.
b) co t 14 en 20 phe pham.
Bai 2.8: Mot x nghiep co hai may I va II. Trong ngay hoi thi, moi cong
nhan d thi c phan mot may va vi may o se san xuat 100 san
pham. Neu so san pham loai A khong t hn 70 th cong nhan o se
c thng. Gia s oi vi cong nhan X, xac suat san xuat c 1 san
pham loai A vi cac may I va II lan lt la 0.6 va 0,7.
a) Tnh xac suat e cong nhan X c thng.
b) Gia s cong nhan X d thi 50 lan. So lan c thng tin chac nhat
la bao nhieu?
28

Bai 2.9: Trong ngay hoi thi, moi chien s se chon ngau nhien mot trong
hai loai sung va vi khau sung chon c se ban 100vien an. Neu co t
65 vien tr len trung bia th c thng. Gia s oi vi chien s A, xac
suat ban 1 vien trung bia bang khau sung loai I la 60% va bang khau
sung loai II la 50%.
a) Tnh xac suat e chien s A c thng.
b) Gia s chien s A d thi 10 lan. Hoi so lan c thng tin chac
nhat la bao nhieu?
c) Chien s A phai tham gia hoi thi t nhat bao nhieu lan e xac suat
co t nhat mot lan c thng khong nho hn 98%?
Bai 2.10: Mot ngi th san ban 4 vien an. Biet xac suat trung ch
cua moi vien an ban ra la 0,8. Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien ch so
vien an trung ch.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.
Bai 2.11: Co hai lo hang I va II, moi lo cha rat nhieu san pham. T le
san pham loai A co trong hai lo I va II lan lt la 70% va 80%. Lay
ngau nhien t moi lo 2 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e so san pham loai A lay t lo I ln hn so san pham
loai A lay t lo II.
b) Goi X la so san pham loai A co trong 4 san pham c lay ra. Tm
ky vong va phng sai cua X.
Bai 2.12: Cho hai hop I va II, moi hop co 10 bi; trong o hop I gom 6 bi
o, 4 bi trang va hop II gom 7 bi o, 3 bi trang. Rut ngau nhien t moi
hop hai bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e c hai bi o va hai bi trang.
b) Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien ch so bi o co trong 4 bi c rut ra.
Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
Bai 2.13: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le phe pham 10%. Mot lo
hang gom 10 san pham vi t le phe pham 30%. Cho may san xuat 3 san
pham va t lo hang lay ra 3 san pham. Goi X la so san pham tot co
trong 6 san pham nay.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Khong dung luat phan phoi cua X, hay tnh M(X), D(X).

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Bai 2.14: Cho hai hop I va II, moi hop co 10 bi; trong o hop I gom 8 bi
o, 2 bi trang va hop II gom 6 bi o, 4 bi trang. Rut ngau nhien t hop
I hai bi bo sang hop II, sau o rut ngau nhien t hop II ba bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e c ca ba bi trang.
b) Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien ch so bi trang co trong ba bi c rut
ra t hop II. Tm luat phan phoi cua X. Xac nh ky vong va phng sai
cua X.
Bai 2.15: Co ba lo san pham, moi lo co 20 san pham. Lo th i co i+4
san pham loai A (i = 1, 2, 3).
a) Chon ngau nhien mot lo roi t lo o lay ra 3 san pham. Tnh xac
suat e trong 3 san pham c lay ra co ung 1 san pham loai A.
b) T moi lo lay ra 1 san pham. Goi X la tong so san pham loai A co
trong 3 san pham c lay ra. Tm luat phan phoi cua X va tnh Mod(X),
M(X), D(X).
Bai 2.16: Mot ngi co 5 cha khoa be ngoai rat giong nhau, trong o ch
co 2 cha m c ca. Ngi o tm cach m ca bang cach th tng
cha mot cho en khi m c ca th thoi (tat nhien, cha nao khong
m c th loai ra). Goi X la so cha khoa ngi o s dung. Tm luat
phan phoi cua X. Hoi ngi o thng phai th bao nhieu cha mi m
c ca? Trung bnh ngi o phai th bao nhieu cha mi m c ca?
Bai 2.17: Mot ngi th san co 5 vien an. Ngi o i san vi nguyen
tac: neu ban trung muc tieu th ve ngay, khong i san na. Biet xac suat
trung ch cua moi vien an ban ra la 0,8. Goi X la ai lng ngau nhien
ch so vien an ngi ay s dung trong cuoc san.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.
Bai 2.18: Mot ngi th san co 4 vien an. Ngi o i san vi nguyen
tac: neu ban 2 vien trung muc tieu th ve ngay, khong i san na. Biet
xac suat trung ch cua moi vien an ban ra la 0,8. Goi X la ai lng
ngau nhien ch so vien an ngi ay s dung trong cuoc san.
a) Tm luat phan phoi cua X.
b) Tm ky vong va phng sai cua X.

AP SO BAI TAP CHNG 2

2.1:
2.2:
2.3:
2.4:

a)
a)
a)
a)

0,8647
0,0952
0,0681
0,0779

b)
b)
b)
b)

0,0103
0,0615
0,0721
0,3597

c)
c)
c)
c)
30

223
0,3297
0,6554
0,3859

2.5:
2.6:
2.7:
2.8:
2.9:
2.10:

a) 0,0684
b) 0,2650
c) 7
a) 0,000727
b) 0,50413
c) 0,5072
a) 0,0454
b) 0,3135
a) 0,2603
b) 13
a) 0,0776
b) 0
c) 49
a)
X
0
1
2
3
4
P
0,0016 0,0256 0,1536 0,4096 0,4096
b) M(X) = 3,2; D(X) = 0,64.
2.11: a) 0,1932
b) M(X) = 3; D(X) = 0,74.
2.12: a) 1/3
b)
X
0
1
2
3
4
P
2/225 22/225 1/3 91/225 7/45
2.13: a)
X
P

0
1/120000

1
1/2500

2
291/40000

3
473/7500

4
10521/40000

5
576/1250

--------------*---------------

6
1701/8000

b) M(X) = 4,8; D(X) = 0,76.

2.14: a) 73/2475
b)
X
0
1
2
3
P
179/825 223/450 1277/4950 73/2475
M(X) = 1,1; D(X) = 0,5829.
2.15: a) 0,4728
b)
X
0
1
2
3
P
273/800 71/160
151/800
21/800
M(X) = 1; D(X) = 0,9.
2.16: a)

X
P

1
2/5

2
3
4
3/10 1/5 1/10

Mod(X) = 2; M(X) = 2.
2.17: a)
X
1
2
3
4
5
P
0,8 0,16 0,032 0,0064 0,0016
b) M(X) = 1,2496; D(X) = 0,3089.
2.18: a)
X
2
3
4
P
0,64 0,256 0,104
b) M(X) = 2,464; D(X) = 0,456704.
31

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32