Baigiang Thongke Chuong4

BAI GIANG
XAC SUAT THONG KE

(GV: Tran Ngoc Hoi 2009)
CHNG 4
KIEM NH GIA THIET

1. Cac loai sai lam va mc y ngha cua kiem nh
1.1. at van e: Cho am ong X co ac so cha biet va gia
thiet H0 ve cung vi gia thiet oi H1. Hay da vao mau (X1, X2,,
Xn) e a ra nhan nh nham chap nhan gia thiet H0 hay bac bo H0
(ngha la chap nhan H1). Cu the:
1) Kiem nh hai pha: o la kiem nh gia thiet dang
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: 0 .
2) Kiem nh ve pha phai: o la kiem nh gia thiet dang
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: > 0 .
3) Kiem nh ve pha trai: o la kiem nh gia thiet dang
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: < 0 .
(0 la hang so).
Chu y: a) Kiem nh ve pha phai hay kiem nh ve pha trai
c goi la kiem nh mot pha.
b) Kiem nh hai pha c a ra khi ta khong biet gia tr thc
cua ln hn hay nho hn 0.
c) Kiem nh mot pha ve pha phai (gia thiet oi H1: > 0) c
a ra khi ta biet gia tr thc cua 0.
d) Kiem nh mot pha ve pha trai (gia thiet oi H1: < 0) c
a ra khi ta biet gia tr thc cua 0.
1.2. Cac loai sai lam: Khi kiem nh gia thiet H0 co 4 tnh
huong co the xay ra:
1) H0 ung nhng qua kiem tra ta lai ket luan rang H0 sai (ngha
la ket luan gia thiet oi H1 ung) va bac bo H0.
1
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2) H0 sai (ngha la gia thiet oi H1 ung) nhng qua kiem tra ta

lai ket luan rang H0 ung va chap nhan H0.
3) H0 ung ong thi qua kiem tra ta cung ket luan rang H0
ung va chap nhan H0.
4) H0 sai ong thi qua kiem tra ta cung ket luan rang H0 sai va
bac bo H0.
Trong cac tnh huong 3 va 4 ta a co quyet nh ung, nhng
trong cac tnh huong 1 va 2 ta mac sai lam. Ngi ta qui c goi sai
lam trong tnh huong 1 la sai lam loai I, con sai lam trong tnh
huong 2 la sai lam loai II. Hai loai sai lam tren co tnh oi khang,
ngha la muon han che sai lam loai nay, th sai lam loai kia co xu
hng tang len. That vay, khi muon han che sai lam loai I ta co xu
hng de dat trong viec bac bo H0, do o co khuynh hng de dai
trong viec chap nhan H0 va nh vay de pham sai lam loai II. Ngc
lai, khi muon han che sai lam loai II ta co xu hng de dat trong
viec chap nhan H0, do o co khuynh hng de dai trong viec bac bo
H0 va lam cho kha nang pham sai lam loai I tang len.
1.3. Mc y ngha cua kiem nh: Khi kiem nh gia thiet H0
vi gia thiet oi H1, ta khong the yeu cau tuyet oi la khong mac sai
lam loai I, v khi o sai lam loai II se rat ln, khong the chap nhan
c. Do o trong thc te bai toan kiem nh c at ra nh sau:
Vi moi so (0 < < 1) kha be, hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e
a ra mot qui tac kiem nh gia thiet:
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: 0 (hoac H1: < 0 hoac H1 : > 0)
sao cho xac suat sai lam loai I khong vt qua , va trong ieu kien
o xac suat sai lam loai II c han che mc thap nhat. So nh
tren c goi la mc y ngha cua kiem nh.
2. Kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong
2.1. Kiem nh hai pha
1) Bai toan: Xet am ong X co ky vong = M(X) cha biet.
Vi moi so (0 < < 1) kha be, hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e
a ra mot qui tac kiem nh gia thiet:
Trng hp 3: n < 30; X co phan phoi chuan; 2 a biet. Trong

trng hp nay ta co qui tac kiem nh giong trng hp 1.
Trng hp 4: n < 30; X co phan phoi chuan; 2 cha biet.
Trong trng hp nay
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: 0

(0 la hang so ) nham chap nhan hay bac bo gia thiet tren vi mc y
ngha .
2) Li giai: Ta chia bai toan thanh 4 trng hp tuy theo phan
phoi cua ky vong mau X .
Trng hp 1: n 30; 2 a biet.
Trong trng hp nay, X co phan phoi chuan:
Tn1 =
co phan phoi Student vi k = n-1 bac t
2
X N(, ).
n
P(| Tk |> tk ) = .
ngha la:
1
. Khi o theo Qui tac k-sigma trong phan phoi chuan,
2
bang cach chon k = z ta co:
(z ) =
| X |
P
n > t k =
S
) = 2(z ) = 1 .
n
Suy ra:
| X |
P
n t k = 1 .
S
Ly luan tng t trng hp 1, ta co qui tac kiem nh gia thiet ve
Suy ra
| X |
P
n z = 1 .
Khi gia thiet H0: = 0 la ung, ta co the thay = 0 vao ang

thc tren va c:
| X 0 |
P
n z = 1
| X 0 |
P
n > z =
Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr
ky vong
X 0
vi mc
y ngha nh sau: Tnh z = X 0 n . Neu |z|

S
nho hn hay bang t th ta chap nhan gia thiet H0. Ngc lai, khi
k
|z| ln hn t th ta bac bo H0. Tom lai, ta co qui tac:

k
BANG 4A
KIEM NH GIA THIET VE KY VONG = M(X)
H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: 0 (mc y ngha )
(1)
z=
do. Vi a cho, tra
tk sao cho:
bang phan phoi Student ta tm c gia tr
Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c gia tr z thoa
P(| X | z
X
S/ n
Trng hp
n . Neu |z|
nho hn hay bang z th ta chap nhan gia thiet H0. Ngc lai, khi
Bc
|z| ln hn z th ta bac bo H0. Do (1) ta thay vi qui tac kiem
1) Tnh z
nh nh tren, xac suat sai lam loai I se bang . Ngi ta cung chng
minh c rang khi o, xac suat sai lam loai II la be nhat trong ieu
kien gii han xac suat sai lam loai I khong vt qua .
Trng hp 2: n 30; 2 cha biet. Trong trng hp nay ta
co qui tac kiem nh tng t trng hp 1, trong o c thay
bang o lech mau hieu chnh S.
n 30
2 a biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
n < 30
2 cha biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
S
(X 0 ) n
z=
(X 0 ) n
S
t k
|z| z
|z| z
|z| z
|z| t k
3b) Bac bo H0
|z| > z
|z| > z
|z| > z
|z| > t k
z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

k
z=
2 cha biet
3a) Chap nhan H0
2) Tra Bang
t vi k = n-1 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student
2 a biet
X 0
P
n z2 = 1 .
Chu y: Khi bac bo gia thiet H: = 0, vi gia thiet oi H1: 0

e nhan nh ve ta so sanh ky vong mau X vi 0 : Neu X > 0
th ta ket luan rang co nhieu kha nang > 0. Neu X < 0 th ta
ket luan rang co nhieu kha nang < 0.
Suy ra
X 0
P
n > z2 = .
Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr
2.2. Kiem nh mot pha:

1) Bai toan: Xet am ong X co ky vong = M(X) cha biet.
Vi moi so (0 < < 1) kha be, hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e:
a) Kiem nh (ve pha phai) gia thiet
b) Kiem nh (ve pha trai) gia thiet
(0 la hang so) vi mc y ngha .
2) Li giai: Xet kiem nh (ve pha phai) gia thiet
Gia s n 30; 2 a biet. Trong trng hp nay, X
phoi chuan:
X N(,
Ngc lai, khi gia tr nay ln hn z2 th ta bac bo H0 . Do (1) ta

thay vi qui tac kiem nh nh tren, xac suat sai lam loai I se khong
vt qua . Ngi ta cung chng minh c rang khi o, xac suat sai
lam loai II la be nhat trong ieu kien gii han xac suat sai lam loai I
khong vt qua .
oi vi viec kiem nh (ve pha trai) gia thiet
ta tien hanh tng t .
Tom lai ta co:
BANG 4B
).

H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: > 0 (mc y ngha )
Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c
P(X + z2
( + z2 n )
) =
()
1 2 1
= (z2 ) + (+) =
+ = 1 .
2
2
Suy ra
X
P
n z2 = 1 .
Khi gia thiet H0: = 0 la ung, ang thc tren cho ta:
n . Neu gia tr
nay nho hn hay bang z2 th ta chap nhan gia thiet H0: = 0 .
co phan
gia tr z2 thoa
1 2
(z2 ) =
. Khi o theo cong thc ve gia tr cua phan phoi chuan
2
trong chng 2, bang cach chon k = z2 ta co:
X 0
Trng hp
Bc
1) Tnh z
n 30
2
a biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
n < 30
2
cha biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
S
a biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
2 cha biet
z=
(X 0 ) n
S
z2
z2
z2
t 2k
3a) Chap nhan H0
z z2
z z2
z z2
z t 2k
3b) Bac bo H0
z > z2
z > z2
z > z2
z > t 2k
2) Tra Bang
z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

k
t 2 vi k = n-1 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student
BANG 4C
Giai
Cac so lieu cua bai toan a tnh c :
- C mau n = 100.
- Ky vong mau cua X: X = 26,36 (cm).

H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: < 0 (mc y ngha )
Trng hp
n 30
2
n < 30
a biet
cha biet
a biet
2 cha biet
(X 0 ) n
z=
(X 0 ) n
z=
S
(X 0 ) n
z=
(X 0 ) n
z=
S
z2
z2
z2
t 2k
3a) Chap nhan H0
-z z2
-z z2
-z z2
-z t 2k
3b) Bac bo H0
-z > z2
-z > z2
-z > z2
t 2k
Bc
1) Tnh z
2) Tra Bang
-z >
Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua X:
C mau loai B: nB = 17.

Ky vong mau cua XB: X B
= 15,1176 (cm).
2
2
2
- Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua XB: S B = (2,0580) (cm ).
a) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong = M(X)

vi mc y ngha = 1% = 0,01:
H0: = 29 vi gia thiet oi H1: 29.
V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi ta
quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham
n 30; 2 = D(X) cha biet, nen ta kiem nh nh sau:

Bc 1: Ta co
11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18
Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19cm tr xuong c xep vao loai B.

a) Gia s trung bnh tieu chuan cua ch tieu X la 29cm. Hay
nhan nh ve tnh hnh san xuat vi mc y ngha 1%.
b) Theo qui nh, gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X la 25cm. Cac
so lieu tren thu thap c t cac san pham do mot may san xuat. Vi
mc y ngha 2% co the ket luan rang cac san pham do may san suat
co ch tieu X cao hn qui nh hay khong?
c) Bang phng phap san xuat mi, sau mot thi gian, ngi ta
thay gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua nhng san pham loai B la
16cm. Hay cho ket luan ve phung phap mi vi mc y ngha 2% (Gia
s X co phan phoi chuan).
d) Theo so lieu thong ke cu, ga tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X
cua nhng san pham loai B la 16,5cm. Cac so lieu tren thu thap c
sau khi a ap dung mot phng phap san xuat mi. Hay cho ket luan
ve nhan nh cho rang phng phap mi co tac dung lam giam ch
tieu X cua nhng san pham loai B vi mc y ngha 2% (Gia s X co
phan phoi chuan).
7
S 2 = (7,4827) 2 (cm 2 ).
z=
(X 0 ) n (26, 36 29) 100

=
= 3, 5281.
S
7, 4827
Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z thoa

(z) = (1- )/2 = 0,99/2 = 0,495
ta c z = 2,58.
Bc 3: Kiem nh.
V |z| = 3,5281 > 2,58 = z nen ta bac bo gia thiet H0:
=29.
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 1%, tnh hnh san xuat khong bnh
thng v gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X khong ung tieu chuan.
b) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong = M(X)
vi mc y ngha = 2% = 0,02:
H0: = 25 vi gia thiet oi H1: > 25.
8
n 30; 2= D(X) cha biet, nen ta kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co
z=
(X 0 ) n (26, 36 25) 100

=
= 1, 8175.
S
7, 4827
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 2%, phng phap mi khong co tac

dung lam thay oi gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu XB cua cac san
pham loai B.
d) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong B = M(XB)
cua ch tieu X = XB
cua cac san pham loai B vi mc y ngha
= 2% = 0,02:
Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z2 thoa (z2) =

(1- 2)/2 = 0,96/2 = 0,48 ta c z2 = 2,06.
Bc 3: Kiem nh.
V z = 1,18175 < 2,06 = z2 nen ta chap nhan gia thiet
H0: = 25.
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 2%, khong the ket luan rang cac
san pham do may tren san suat co ch tieu X cao hn qui nh.
c) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong B = M(XB)
cua ch tieu X = XB cua cac san pham loai B vi mc y ngha = 2%
= 0,02:
H0: B = 16 vi gia thiet oi H1: B 16.
V nB < 30, XB co phan phoi chuan, 2B = D(XB) cha biet, nen ta
kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co
z=
(X B 0 ) nB
SB
(15,1176 16) 17
= 1,7678.
2, 0580
Bc 2: at k = nB -1 = 16. Tra bang phan phoi Student ng

vi k = 16 va = 0,02 ta c t = 2,583.
Bc 3: Kiem nh.
V |z| = 1,7678 < 2,583 = t nen ta chap nhan gia thiet
H0: B = 16.
H0: B = 16,5 vi gia thiet oi H1: B < 16,5.

V nB < 30, XB co phan phoi chuan, 2B= D(XB) cha biet, nen ta
kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co
z=
(X B 0 ) n B
(15,1176 16, 5) 17
=
= 2,7696.
SB
2, 0580
Bc 2: at k = nB - 1 = 16. Tra bang phan phoi Student ng

vi k = 16 va 2 = 0,04 ta c t 2 = 2,2354.
Bc 3: Kiem nh.
V
-z = 2,7696 > 2,2354 =
t 2 nen ta bac bo
gia
thiet
H0: B = 16,5, ngha la chap nhan B < 16,5.

Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 2%, phng phap mi co tac dung
lam giam gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu XB cua cac san pham loai B.
2.3. Kiem nh gia thiet ve so sanh hai ky vong
1) Kiem nh hai pha: Xet hai am ong X, Y vi cac ky vong
X = M(X) va Y = M(Y) eu cha biet. Vi moi so (0< < 1) kha be,
da vao cac mau (X1 , X 2 ,..., X n ) va (Y1 , Y2 ,..., Yn ) ta co qui tac kiem
X
nh gia thiet hai pha ve so sanh hai ky vong nh sau:
10
BANG 5A
BANG 5C
KIEM NH GIA THIET VE SO SANH HAI KY VONG

H0: X = Y vi gia thiet oi H1: X Y (mc y ngha )

H0: X = Y vi gia thiet oi H1: X < Y (mc y ngha )
Trng hp
Trng hp
nX 30 va nY 30
nX < 30 hoac nY < 30
Bc
nX 30 va nY 30
Bc
1) Tnh z
z=
XY
z=
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY
t k
2) Tra Bang
|z| z
3a) Chap nhan H0
|z| > z
3b) Bac bo H0
XY
1) Tnh z
z=
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY
|z|
|z| >
t k
z=
t 2k
3a) Chap nhan H0
-z z2
-z t 2k
3b) Bac bo H0
-z > z2
-z > t 2k
t vi k = nX + nY - 2 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student
2) Kiem nh mot pha: Xet hai am ong X, Y vi cac ky vong

X = M(X) va Y = M(Y) eu cha biet. Vi moi so (0< < 1) kha be,
X

H0: X = Y vi gia thiet oi H1: X > Y (mc y ngha )
nX 30 va nY 30
Bc
1) Tnh z
z=
XY
z=
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY
XY
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY
z2
t 2k
3a) Chap nhan H0
z z2
z t 2k
3b) Bac bo H0
z > z2
z > t 2k
2) Tra Bang
V du: Theo doi gia co phieu cua hai cong ty A va B trong mot so
ngay, ngi ta tnh c cac so lieu sau:
nh gia thiet mot pha ve so sanh hai ky vong nh sau:

BANG 5B
Trng hp
XY
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY
z2
2) Tra Bang
t k
XY
S2X S2Y
+
nX nY

k
11
Cong ty A
Cong ty B
Ky vong mau o lech mau hieu chnh

38,24
2,2
37,10
1,5
a) Cho biet so lieu tren co c t 31 ngay theo doi gia tr co

phieu (moi ngay mot gia tr cho moi cong ty). Vay vi mc y ngha
1%, co the noi rang co s khac biet thc s ve gia co phieu trung
bnh cua hai cong ty A va B hay khong?
b) Cho biet so lieu tren co c t 20 ngay theo doi gia tr co
phieu (moi ngay mot gia tr cho moi cong ty).Vi mc y ngha 4%, co
the noi rang gia co phieu trung bnh cua cong ty A thc s cao hn
cua cong ty B hay khong (Gia s cac gia tr co phieu co phan phoi
chuan)?
Giai
a) ay la bai toan kiem nh so sanh hai ky vong vi mc y
ngha = 1% = 0,01:
12
H0: A = B vi gia thiet oi H1: A B

V n1 = n2 = 31 > 30 nen ta kiem nh nh sau:
la chap nhan A > B.
Bc 1: Ta co:
z=
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V z = 1,9147 > 1,799 = t 2 nen ta bac bo H0: A = B, ngha
X A XB
S2A S2B
+
n1 n2
38, 24 37,1
(2, 2)2 (1, 5)2

+
31
31
= 2, 3838.

(z) = (1 - )/2 = 0,99/2 = 0,495
ta c z = 2,58.
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V |z|= 2,3838 < 2,58 = z nen
H0: A = B.
ta chap nhan gia thiet
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 4%, co the xem gia tr co phieu

trung bnh cua cong ty A thc s cao hn cua cong ty B.
3. Kiem nh gia thiet ve t le
3.1. Kiem nh hai pha
1) Bai toan: Xet am ong X co t le p cha biet. Vi moi so
(0 < < 1) kha be, hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e a ra mot qui
tac kiem nh gia thiet:
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p p0
(0 < p0 < 1 la hang so) vi mc y ngha .
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 1%, gia tr co phieu trung bnh cua

hai cong ty A va B co the xem la nh nhau, ngha la khong co s
khac biet thc s ve gia co phieu trung bnh cua hai cong ty A va B.
2) Li giai: Ta ch xet trng hp c mau kha ln. Khi o

trong chng 3, ta a biet t le mau Fn co phan phoi chuan:
b) ay la bai toan kiem nh so sanh hai ky vong vi mc y

ngha = 4% = 0,04:
H0: A = B vi gia thiet oi H1: A > B

V n1 = n2 = 20 < 30 va cac gia tr co phieu XA, XB eu co phan
phoi chuan nen ta kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co:
z=
X A XB
S2A S2B
+
n1 n2
38, 24 37,1
(2, 2)2 (1, 5)2
+
20
20
= 1, 9147.
Bc 2: at k = n1 + n2 2 = 38. Tra bang phan phoi Student

ng vi k = 38 va 2 = 0,08 ta c t 2 = 1,799.
13
Fn N(p,
pq
).
n
gia tr z thoa
1
. Khi o theo Qui tac k-sigma trong chng 2 ve phan
2
phoi chuan, bang cach chon k = z ta co:
(z ) =
P(|Fn p| z
pq
) = 2(z ) = 1 .
n
Suy ra
|F p|
P n
n z = 1 .
pq
Khi gia thiet p = p0 la ung, ta co the thay p = p0, q = 1-p0 vao

ang thc tren va c:
|Fn p 0 |
P
p (1 p )
0
0
n z = 1
14
|Fn p0 |
P
n > z =
p (1 p )
0
0
Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr z =
(1)
Fn p0
p 0 (1 p 0 )
n . Neu
|z| nho hn hay bang z th ta chap nhan gia thiet H. Ngc lai, khi
|z| ln hn z th ta bac bo H. Do (1) ta thay vi qui tac kiem nh
nh tren, xac suat sai lam loai I se bang . Ngi ta cung chng
minh c rang khi o, xac suat sai lam loai II la be nhat trong ieu
kien gii han xac suat sai lam loai I khong vt qua . Tom lai ta
co:
2) Li giai: Xet viec kiem nh (ve pha phai) gia thiet

H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p > p0 .
Ta ch xet trng hp c mau kha ln. Khi o trong chng 3
ta a biet t le mau Fn co phan phoi chuan:
Fn N(p,
gia tr z2 thoa
1 2
(z2 ) =
. Khi o theo cong thc ve gia tr cua phan phoi chuan
2
trong chng 2, bang cach chon k = z2 ta co:
P(Fn p + z2
BANG 6A
KIEM NH GIA THIET VE T LE p = P(A)
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p p0 (mc y ngha )
Bc 1: Tnh z
z=
(Fn p0 ) n
p 0 (1 p0 )
z
|z| z
|z| > z
Bc 2: Tra Bang
Bc 3a: Chap nhan H0
Bc 3b: Bac bo H0
pq
)p
(p + z2
pq
n
()
) =
n
pq
1 2 1
= (z2 ) + (+) =
+ =1
2
2
Suy ra
F p
P n
n z2 = 1 .
pq
Khi gia thiet H0: p = p0 la ung, ang thc tren cho ta:
Fn p0
P
n z2 = 1 .
p (1 p )
0
0
Chu y: Khi bac bo gia thiet H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p p0

e nhan nh ve p ta so sanh t le mau Fn vi p0 : Neu Fn > p0 th ta
ket luan co nhieu kha nang p > p0. Neu Fn < p0 th ta ket luan co
nhieu kha nang p < p0.
pq
).
n
Suy ra
Fn p 0
P
n > z2 =
p (1 p )
0
0
Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr z =
(2)
Fn p0
p0 (1 p0 )
n . Neu z
3.2. Kiem nh mot pha

1) Bai toan: Xet am ong X co t le p cha biet. Vi moi so
(0 < < 1) kha be, hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e:
a) Kiem nh (ve pha phai) gia thiet
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p > p0
b) Kiem nh (ve pha trai) gia thiet
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p < p0
(0 < p0 < 1 la hang so) vi mc y ngha .
ta bac bo H0. Do (2) ta thay vi qui tac kiem nh nh tren, xac suat
sai lam loai I se khong vt qua . Ngi ta cung chng minh c
rang khi o, xac suat sai lam loai II la be nhat trong ieu kien gii
han xac suat sai lam loai I khong vt qua .
Tng t, qui tac kiem nh (ve pha trai) gia thiet
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p < p0
15
16
z2 th ta chap nhan gia thiet H0: p = p0. Ngc lai, khi z > z2 th
Fn p0
vi mc y ngha nh sau: Tnh
p 0 (1 p0 )
n . Neu -z z2 th ta
chap nhan gia thiet H0. Ngc lai, khi -z > z2 th ta bac bo H0. Tom
lai ta co:
BANG 6B
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p > p0 (mc y ngha )
Bc 1: Tnh z
z=
(Fn p0 ) n
p 0 (1 p0 )
z2
z z2
z > z2
Bc 2: Tra Bang
Bc 3a: Chap nhan H0
Bc 3b: Bac bo H0
BANG 6C
H0: p = p0 vi gia thiet oi H1: p < p0 (mc y ngha )
Bc 1: Tnh z
z=
(Fn p0 ) n
p 0 (1 p0 )
z2
-z z2
-z > z2
Bc 2: Tra Bang
Bc 3a: Chap nhan H0
Bc 3b: Bac bo H0
V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi ta
X(cm)
So san pham
11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18
Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 27cm tr len dc xep vao loai A.

c) Mot tai lieu cu cho rang t le san pham loai A la 60%. Hay
nhan nh ve tai lieu nay vi mc y ngha 1%.
17
d) T le san pham loai A trc ay la 40%. Cac so lieu tren thu

thap c sau khi a ap dung mot ky thuat mi. Vi mc y ngha 3%,
co the noi rang ky thuat mi lam tang t le san pham loai A hay
khong?
Giai
Ta tnh c:
C mau n = 100.
T le mau san pham loai A la Fn = 47/100 = 0,47.
a) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve
pham loai A vi mc y ngha = 1% = 0,01:
t le p cac san
H0: p = 60% = 0,6 vi gia thiet oi H1: p 0,6

Ta kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co
(F p0 ) n (0, 47 0, 6) 100
=
= 2, 6536.
z= n
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 6(1 0, 6)
(z) = (1 - )/2 = 0,99/2 = 0,495
ta c z = 2,58.
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V|z|= 2,6536 > 2,58 = z nen ta bac bo gia thiet H0: p=0,6.
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 1%, tai lieu thong ke cu da lac hau,
khong con phu hp vi thc te.
b) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve
pham loai A vi mc y ngha = 3% = 0,03:
t le p cac san
H0: p = 40% = 0,4 vi gia thiet oi H1: p > 0,4

Ta kiem nh nh sau:
18
Bc 1: Ta co
(F p0 ) n (0, 47 0, 4) 100
z= n
=
= 1, 4289.
p0 (1 p0 )
0, 4(1 0, 4)
Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z2 thoa

(z2) = (1 - 2)/2 = 0,94/2 = 0,47
ta c z2 = 1,88.
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V z = 1,4289< 1,88= z2 nen ta chap nhan gia thiet H0: p = 0,4.
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 3%, ky thuat mi khong lam tang t
le san pham loai A.
X
nh gia thiet mot pha ve so sanh hai t le nh sau:

BANG 7B
KIEM NH GIA THIET VE SO SANH HAI T LE
H0: pX = pY (= p0)vi gia thiet oi H1: pX > pY (mc y ngha )
Trng hp
p0 a biet
Bc
1) Tnh z
z=
p0 cha biet
FnX FnY
1
1
+
p 0 (1 p 0 )
nX nY
3.4. Kiem nh gia thiet ve so sanh hai t le

1) Kiem nh hai pha: Xet hai am ong X, Y trong o X co
t le pX; Y co t le pY eu cha biet. Vi moi so (0 < < 1) kha be,
X
nh gia thiet hai pha ve so sanh hai t le nh sau:
Bc
1) Tnh z
z=
z2
z z2
z > z2
2) Tra Bang tm
3a) Chap nhan H0
3b) Bac bo H0
1
1
p 0 (1 p 0 )
+
nX nY
z=
Fn X Fn Y
2) Tra Bang
3a) Chap nhan H0
3b) Bac bo H0
z
|z| z
|z| > z
z2
z z2
z > z2
BANG 7C
Trng hp
1) Tnh z
n X FnX + n Y FnY
nX + n Y
z
|z| z
|z| > z
p0 a biet
Bc
1
1
+
p0 (1 p0 )
nX nY
vi p0 =
z=
p0 cha biet
FnX FnY
1
1
+
p 0 (1 p 0 )
nX nY
z=
Fn X Fn Y
1
1
+
p0 (1 p0 )
nX nY
vi p0 =
2) Tra Bang
3a) Chap nhan H0
3b) Bac bo H0
z2
-z z2
-z > z2
z2 thoa (z2) = (1 2)/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace
2) Kiem nh mot pha: Xet hai am ong X, Y trong o X co

t le pX; Y co t le pY eu cha biet. Vi moi so (0 < < 1) kha be,
19
n X FnX + n Y FnY
nX + n Y

H0: pX = pY (= p0)vi gia thiet oi H1: pX < pY (mc y ngha )
p0 cha biet
FnX FnY
1
1
+
p0 (1 p0 )
nX nY
vi p0 =
BANG 7A
p0 a biet
Fn X Fn Y
z2 thoa (z2) = (1 2)/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

H0: pX = pY (= p0)vi gia thiet oi H1: pX pY (mc y ngha )
Trng hp
z=
20
n X FnX + n Y FnY
nX + n Y
z2
-z z2
-z > z2
V du: Khao sat mot so san pham cung loai hai kho I va II, ta
thu c cac so lieu sau:
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 5%, chat lng hang hai kho

khong nh nhau.
So san pham So phe pham

100
4
200
24
b) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet so sanh hai t le vi

mc y ngha = 1% = 0,01:
Kho I
Kho II
H0: p1 = p2 vi gia thiet oi H1: p1 < p2
e) Vi mc y ngha 5%, co the noi rang chat lng hang hai

kho la nh nhau hay khong?
f) Vi mc y ngha 1%, co the noi rang chat lng hang kho I
tot hn kho II khong?
Giai
T cac gia thiet cua bai toan ta suy ra:
- oi vi kho I: C mau n1 = 100; t le mau phe pham Fn1 = 0,04.
- oi vi kho II: C mau n2 = 200; t le mau phe pham Fn2 =
0,12.
- p0 =
n1Fn1 + n 2Fn2 100.0, 04 + 200.0,12

7
=
=
.
n1 + n 2
100 + 200
75
a) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet so sanh hai t le vi

mc y ngha = 5% = 0,05:
H0: p1 = p2 vi gia thiet oi H1: p1 p2
Ta kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Ta co:
z=
Fn1 Fn2
1
1
p0 (1 p0 )
+
n1 n2
0, 04 0,12
7
7 1
1
+
1
75
75 100 200
= 2, 2454.

(z) = (1 - )/2 = 0,95/2 = 0,475
ta c z = 1,96.
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V |z|= 2,2454 > 1,96 = z nen ta bac bo gia thiet H0: p1 = p2.
21
Ta kiem nh nh sau:
Bc 1: Tnh z nh trong Bc 1 cau a) ta c z= -2,2454.
Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z2 thoa
(z2) = (1 - 2)/2 = 0,98/2 = 0,49
ta c z2 = 2,33.
Bc 3: Kiem nh:
V -z = 2,2454 < 2,33 = z2 nen ta chap nhan gia thiet
H0: p1 = p2.
Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 1%, khong the noi chat lng hang
kho I tot hn kho II.
BAI TAP CHNG 4

Bai 4.1: Trong lng cua mot san pham theo qui nh la 6kg. Sau
mot thi gian san xuat, ngi ta tien hanh kiem tra 121 san pham va
tnh c trung bnh mau la 5,975kg va phng sai mau hieu chnh
5,7596kg2. San xuat c xem la bnh thng neu cac san pham co
trong lng trung bnh bang trong lng qui nh.Vi mc y ngha
5%, hay ket luan ve tnh hnh san xuat.
Bai 4.2: Trong lng cua mot san pham co phan phoi chuan vi trong
lng trung bnh la 500g. Sau mot thi gian san xuat, ngi ta nghi
ng trong lng trung bnh cua loai san pham nay co xu hng giam
nen tien hanh kiem tra 25 san pham va thu c ket qua sau:
Trong lng (g)
So san pham
480 485 490 495 500 510

2
3
8
5
3
4
22
Vi mc y ngha 3%, hay ket luan ieu nghi ng tren co ung hay
khong.
Bai 4.3: Nang suat lua trung bnh cua nhng vu trc la 5,5tan/ha.
Vu lua nam nay ngi ta ap dung mot phng phap ky thuat mi cho
toan bo dien tch trong lua trong vung. ieu tra nang suat 100ha lua,
ta co bang so lieu sau:
Nangsuat (ta/ha) 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80
Dien tch (ha)
7
12
18
27
20
8
5
3
Vi mc y ngha 1%, hay ket luan xem phng phap ky thuat mi co

lam tang nang suat lua trung bnh cua vung nay hay khong?
Bai 4.4: Mot cong ty d nh m mot sieu th tai mot khu dan c. e
anh gia kha nang mua hang cua dan c trong khu vc, ngi ta tien
hanh ieu tra ve thu nhap cua 100 ho trong khu vc va co bang so
lieu sau:
Thu nhap bnh quan (ngan/ngi/thang) 150 200 250 300 350
So ho
8
15
38
22
17
Theo bo phan tiep th th sieu th ch hoat ong co hieu qua tai khu
vc nay khi thu nhap bnh quan hang thang cua cac ho toi thieu la
vao khoang 250ngan/ngi/thang. Vay theo ket qua ieu tra tren,
cong ty co nen quyet nh m sieu thi tai khu vc nay hay khong vi
mc y ngha 5%?
Bai 4.5: e nghien cu nhu cau cua mot loai hang, ngi ta tien hanh
khao sat nhu cau cua mat hang nay 400 ho. Ket qua nh sau:
Nhu cau (kg/thang)
So ho
0
10
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7

35 86 132 78 31 18 10
Gia s khu vc o co 4000 ho. Neu cho rang nhu cau trung bnh ve
mat hang nay cua toan khu vc la 14tan/thang th co chap nhan c
khong vi mc y ngha 2%?
Bai 4.6: Trong lng cua mot loai ga cong nghiep mot trai chan
nuoi co phan phoi chuan.Trong lng trung bnh khi xuat chuong
nam trc la 2,8kg/con. Nam nay, ngi ta s dung mot loai thc an
mi. Can th 25 con khi xuat chuong ngi ta tnh c trung bnh
mau la 3,2kg va phng sai mau hieu chnh 0,25kg2.
23
a) Vi mc y ngha 5%, hay ket luan xem loai thc an mi co thc

s lam tang trong lng trung bnh cua an ga hay khong?
b) Neu trai chan nuoi bao cao trong lng trung bnh khi xuat
chuong la 3,3kg/con th co chap nhan c khong vi mc y
ngha 5%?
Bai 4.7: Chieu cao trung bnh cua 100 nam sinh lp 12 mot trng
trung hoc noi thanh la 1,68m vi o lech mau hieu chnh 6cm. Trong
khi kiem tra 120 nam sinh lp 12 mot huyen ngoai thanh th chieu
cao trung bnh la 1,64m vi o lech mau hieu chnh 5cm. Vi mc y
ngha 1%, co the ket luan rang nam sinh noi thanh thc s cao hn
nam sinh ngoai thanh hay khong?
Bai 4.8: Mot hp tac xa trong th hai giong lua, moi giong tren 30
tha ruong va c cham soc nh nhau. Cuoi vu thu hoach ta c so
lieu nh sau:
Giong lua 1
Giong lua 2
Nang suat trung bnh (ta/ha)

45
46,5
o lech mau hieu chnh

2,5
4,0
a) Vi mc y ngha 2%, co the xem nang suat cua hai giong lua
tren la nh nhau hay khong?
b) Vi mc y ngha 2%, co the xem nang suat cua giong lua 2 cao
hn cua giong lua 1 hay khong?
Bai 4.9: Mot may san xuat t ong, luc au t le san pham loai A la
45%. Sau khi ap dung mot phng phap san xuat mi, ngi ta lay ra
400 san pham e kiem tra th thay co 215 san pham loai A. Vi mc
y ngha 5%, hay ket luan xem phng phap mi co thc s lam tang
t le san pham loai A hay khong?
Bai 4.10: Thong ke 10650 tre s sinh mot a phng ngi ta
thay co 5410 be trai.
a) Vi mc y ngha 3%, hoi co s khac biet ve t le sinh be trai va
be gai hay khong?
b) Vi mc y ngha 1%, hoi t le sinh be trai co thc s cao hn t
le sinh be gai hay khong?
24
Bai 4.11: Benh A co the cha bang hai loai thuoc H va K. Cong ty
san xuat thuoc H tuyen bo t le benh nhan khoi benh do dung thuoc
cua ho la 85%. Ngi ta dung th thuoc H cha cho 250 benh nhan
th thay co 210 ngi khoi benh, dung th thuoc K cho 200 benh
nhan th thay co 175 ngi khoi benh.
a) Vi mc y ngha 1% co the ket luan thuoc K co kha nang cha
benh A tot hn thuoc H hay khong?
b) Xet xem hieu qua cha benh cua thuoc H co ung nh cong ty
quang cao vi mc y ngha 5% hay khong.
Bai 4.12: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi ta
X(cm)
11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39
Sosan pham 8
9
20
16
16
13
18
Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19cm tr xuong c goi la nhng
san pham loai B.
a) Gia s trung bnh tieu chuan cua ch tieu X la 29cm. Hay cho nhan
xet ve tnh hnh san xuat vi mc y ngha 2%.
b) Bang phng phap san xuat mi, sau mot thi gian ngi ta thay
gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua nhng san pham loai B la
16cm. Hay cho ket luan ve phng phap san xuat mi vi mc y
ngha 1% (GS X co phan phoi chuan).
c) Mot tai lieu thong ke cu cho rang t le nhng san pham loai B la
12%. Hay nhan nh ve tai lieu nay vi mc y ngha 5%.
Bai 4.13: e khao sat chieu cao X cua mot giong cay trong, ngi ta
X(cm)
So cay
95-105
10
105-115
10
115-125
15
125-135
30
135-145
10
145-155
10
155-165
15
b) Nhng cay trong co chieu cao t 135cm tr len c goi la nhng

cay cao. Trc ay, t le nhng cay cao cua loai cay trong tren
la 40%. Cac so lieu tren thu thap c sau khi a ap dung mot ky
thuat mi. Hay cho ket luan ve ky thuat mi vi mc y ngha 5%.
c) Nhng cay trong co chieu cao t 105cm en 125cm c goi la
nhng cay loai A. Bang phng phap mi, sau mot thi gian ngi
ta thay chieu cao trung bnh cua nhng cay loai A la 119,5cm.
Hay cho ket luan ve phng phap mi vi mc y ngha 1% (GS X
co phan phoi chuan).
Bai 4.14: Cho cac so lieu nh Bai 4.13.
a) Gia s trung bnh tieu chuan cua chieu cao X la 125cm. Co the
khang nh rang viec canh tac lam tang chieu cao trung bnh cua
giong cay trong tren vi mc y ngha 1% hay khong?
b) Gia s trung bnh tieu chuan cua chieu cao X la 134cm. Co the
khang nh rang viec canh tac lam giam chieu cao trung bnh cua
giong cay trong tren vi mc y ngha 2% hay khong?
c) Sau khi ap dung phng phap canh tac mi, ngi ta thay chieu
cao trung bnh cua cac cay loai A la 114cm. Hay ket luan xem
phng phap mi co lam giam chieu cao trung bnh cua cac cay loai
A hay khong vi mc y ngha 3%(Gia s X co phan phoi chuan).
d) Trc ay, chieu cao trung bnh cua cac cay loai A la 120cm. Cac
so lieu tren thu thap c sau khi a ap dung mot ky thuat mi.
Hay ket luan xem ky thuat mi co lam giam chieu cao trung bnh
cua cac cay loai A hay khong vi mc y ngha 2% (Gia s X co phan
phoi chuan).
e) Sau khi ap dung mot phng phap san xuat, ngi ta thay t le cac
cay loai A la 35%. Hay ket luan xem phng phap mi co lam tang
t le cac cay loai A len hay khong vi mc y ngha 2% .
f) Mot tai lieu thong ke cu cho rang t le cac cay loai A la 20%. Hay
xet xem viec canh tac co lam tang t le cac cay loai A hay khong
vi mc y ngha 5%?
a) Mot tai lieu thong ke cu cho rang chieu cao trung bnh cua giong
cay trong tren la 127cm. Hay cho ket luan ve tai lieu o vi mc y
ngha 1%.
Bai 4.15. e khao sat ng knh cua mot chi tiet may ngi ta kiem
tra mot so san pham cua hai nha may. Trong ket qua sau ay, X la
ng knh cua chi tiet may do nha may 1 san xuat con Y la ng
25
26
knh cua chi tiet may do nha may 2 san xuat. Nhng san pham co chi
tiet may nho hn 19cm c xep vao loai C.
X(cm)
So san pham
11-15
9
15-19
19
19-23
20
23-27
26
27-31
16
31-35
13
35-39
18
Y(cm)
So san pham
13-16
7
16-19
9
19-22
25
22-25
26
25-28
18
28-31
15
31-34
11
a) Co the ket luan rang ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi tiet may
do hai nha may san xuat bang nhau hay khong vi mc y ngha
1%?
b) Co the cho rang ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi tiet may do
nha may th 1san xuat ln hn ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi
tiet may do nha may th 2 san xuat hay khong vi mc y ngha
5%?
c) Xet xem ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi tiet may do nha may
th 2 san xuat co nho hn ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi tiet
may do nha may th 1 san xuat hay khong vi mc y ngha 2%?
d) Vi mc y ngha 4%, t le san pham loai C do hai nha may san
xuat co nh nhau khong?
e) Vi mc y ngha 3%, co the cho rang t le san pham loai C do nha
may th 1 san xuat ln hn t le san pham loai C do nha may th
2 san xuat hay khong?
f) Hay nhan xet ve y kien cho rang t le san pham loai C do nha
may th 2 san xuat nho hn t le san pham loai C do nha may th
1 san xuat vi mc y ngha 5%?
AP SO BAI TAP CHNG 4

4.1. |z|= 0,1146 < 1,96 = z. Tnh hnh san xuat bnh thng.
4.2. -z = 3,3717 > 1,974 = t 2 . ieu nghi ng la ung.
4.3. z = 3,0055 > 2,33 = z2. Phng phap mi lam tang nang suat lua
trung bnh.
4.4. z = 2,1754 > 1,65 = z2. Cong ty nen quyet nh m sieu th.
27
4.5.|z| = 12,2114 > 2,33 = z. Khong the cho rang nhu cau trung
bnh ve mat hang nay cua toan khu vc la 14tan/thang.
4.6. a) z = 4 > 1,711 = t2. Loai thc an mi lam tang trong lng
trung bnh cua an ga.
b) |z| = 1 < 2,064 = t . Chap nhan bao cao.
4.7. z = 5,3059 > 2,33 = z2. Nam sinh noi thanh thc s cao hn
nam sinh ngoai thanh.
4.8. a) |z| = 1,7418 < 2,33 = z. Nang suat cua hai giong lua tren la
nh nhau.
b) -z = 1,7418 < 2,06 = z2. Khong the xem nang suat cua giong
lua 2 cao hn cua giong lua 1.
4.9. z = 3,5176 > 1,65= z2. Phng phap mi lam tang t le san pham
loai A.
4.10. a)|z| = 2,3296 > 2,17 = z. Co s khac biet ve t le sinh be trai
va be gai.
b) z = 2,3296 < 2,33 = z2. Khong the noi t le sinh be trai thc
s cao hn t le sinh be gai.
4.11. a) -z = 1,0495 < 2,33 = z2. Khong the ket luan thuoc K co kha
nang cha benh A tot hn thuoc H.
b) -z = 0,4428 < 1,65 = z2. Hieu qua cha benh cua thuoc H ung
nh cong ty quang cao.
4.12. a) |z|= 3,5281 > 2,33 = z. Tnh hnh san xuat khong bnh
thng.
b) |z| = 1,7678 < 2,921= t . Phng phap mi khong lam thay
oi gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua cac san pham loai B.
c) |z| = 1,5386 < 1,96 = z. Tai lieu cu con phu hp.
4.13. a) |z| = 2,1942 < 2,58 = z. Tai lieu cu con phu hp.
b) |z| = 1,0206 < 1,96 = z. Phng phap mi khong lam thay
oi t le cac cay cao.
c) |z| = 3,5 > 2,797 = t . Phng phap mi lam thay oi chieu
cao trung bnh cua cac cay loai A.
4.14. a) z = 3,2913 > 2,33 = z2. Viec canh tac lam tang chieu cao
trung bnh cua giong cay trong.
b) z = 1,6457 < 2,06 = z2: Khong the ket luan rang viec canh
tac lam giam chieu cao trung bnh cua giong cay trong.
28
c) z = 2 > 1,974 = t 2 . Phng phap mi lam giam chieu cao

trung bnh cua cac cay loai A.
d) -z = 4 > 2,1715 = t 2 . Ky thuat mi lam giam chieu cao
trung bnh cua cac cay loai A.
e) -z= 2,0966 > 2,06 = z2. Phng phap mi lam tang t le cay
loai A.
f) z = 1,25 < 1,65 = z2. Viec canh tac khong lam tang t le cac
cay loai A.
4.15. a) |z| = 1,7188 < 2,58 = z. ng knh trung bnh cua mot
chi tiet may do hai nha may san xuat la bang nhau.
b) z = 1,7188 > 1,65 = z2. ng knh trung bnh cua mot chi
tiet may do nha may 1 san xuat ln hn.
c) z = 1,7188 < 2,06 = z2. Khong the xem ng knh trung
bnh cua mot chi tiet may do nha may 2 san xuat nho hn.
d) |z| = 1,6942 < 2,06 = z. T le san pham loai C do hai nha
may san xuat la nh nhau.
e) z = 1,6942 < 1,88 = z2. T le san pham loai C do nha may 1
san xuat ln hn.
f) z = 1,6942 > 1,65 = z2. T le san pham loai C do nha may 2
san xuat nho hn.
-------------------------------------------------
29

Baigiang Thongke Chuong4

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Baigiang Thongke Chuong4

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BAI GIANG

XAC SUAT THONG KE

KIEM NH GIA THIET

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2) H0 sai (ngha la gia thiet oi H1 ung) nhng qua kiem tra ta

Trng hp 3: n < 30; X co phan phoi chuan; 2 a biet. Trong

H0: = 0 vi gia thiet oi H1: 0

co phan phoi Student vi k = n-1 bac t

Ly luan tng t trng hp 1, ta co qui tac kiem nh gia thiet ve

Khi gia thiet H0: = 0 la ung, ta co the thay = 0 vao ang

Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr

y ngha nh sau: Tnh z = X 0 n . Neu |z|

|z| ln hn t th ta bac bo H0. Tom lai, ta co qui tac:

do. Vi a cho, tra

bang phan phoi Student ta tm c gia tr

Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c gia tr z thoa

|z| ln hn z th ta bac bo H0. Do (1) ta thay vi qui tac kiem

z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

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3a) Chap nhan H0

t vi k = n-1 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

Chu y: Khi bac bo gia thiet H: = 0, vi gia thiet oi H1: 0

Xet qui tac kiem nh nh sau: Tnh gia tr

2.2. Kiem nh mot pha:

Ngc lai, khi gia tr nay ln hn z2 th ta bac bo H0 . Do (1) ta

KIEM NH GIA THIET VE KY VONG = M(X)

Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c

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nay nho hn hay bang z2 th ta chap nhan gia thiet H0: = 0 .

3a) Chap nhan H0

z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

t 2 vi k = n-1 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

KIEM NH GIA THIET VE KY VONG = M(X)

3a) Chap nhan H0

Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua X:

C mau loai B: nB = 17.

a) ay la bai toan kiem nh gia thiet ve ky vong = M(X)

z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

H0: = 29 vi gia thiet oi H1: 29.

t 2 vi k = n-1 tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

n 30; 2 = D(X) cha biet, nen ta kiem nh nh sau:

11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19cm tr xuong c xep vao loai B.

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(X 0 ) n (26, 36 29) 100

Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z thoa

n 30; 2= D(X) cha biet, nen ta kiem nh nh sau:

(X 0 ) n (26, 36 25) 100

Ket luan: Vi mc y ngha 2%, phng phap mi khong co tac

Bc 2: Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace e tm z2 thoa (z2) =

Bc 2: at k = nB -1 = 16. Tra bang phan phoi Student ng

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H0: B = 16,5 vi gia thiet oi H1: B < 16,5.

Bc 2: at k = nB - 1 = 16. Tra bang phan phoi Student ng

H0: B = 16,5, ngha la chap nhan B < 16,5.

nh gia thiet hai pha ve so sanh hai ky vong nh sau:

KIEM NH GIA THIET VE SO SANH HAI KY VONG

KIEM NH GIA THIET VE SO SANH HAI KY VONG

nX < 30 hoac nY < 30

nX < 30 hoac nY < 30

3a) Chap nhan H0

3a) Chap nhan H0

z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace