DEBATING POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND OTHER TIMELY TOPICS WITH PAUL KRUGMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES

FRIDAY, AUGUST 14, 2015

PAUL KRUGMAN

The Roots
Of Trumpism
Memo to pollsters: While Im
having as much fun as everyone
else watching the unsinkable Donald Trump defy predictions of his
collapse, what I really want to see
at this point is a profile of the Republican presidential candidates
supporters. What characteristics
predispose someone to like this guy
rather than an establishment candidate?
The reason Id like to see such a
poll is that I suspect that both conservative and liberal pundits in the
United States are getting the Trump
phenomenon wrong. And yes, this
is the sort of statement hey, the
left and the right are both wrong!
that I usually hate when it comes
from other pundits. But in this instance, its not a case of knee-jerk

Both conservative
and liberal pundits in
the United States are
getting the Trump
phenomenon wrong.
centrism, but an informed guess
based on some related evidence.
Right now, the conservative explanation, as best as I can figure, is that
the partys base voters are victims
of celebrity: What they really want
is a true conservative, but theyre
being hijacked and hoodwinked by
someone who makes good TV.
Meanwhile, the liberal version,
as Ive heard it, seems to be that
Mr. Trump is appealing to resentment that ultimately rests on economic failure: Working-class white
Americans have been left behind by
soaring income inequality, but they
mistakenly blame immigrants for
taking their jobs.

But are Trumpists really being

hoodwinked? Are they members
of the suffering working class who
dont understand why theyre hurting? Heres my guess: They look a
lot like Tea Party supporters. And
we do know a fair bit about them.
First of all, Tea Party supporters
are for the most part not workingclass, at least in the ways that group
is often defined. Theyre relatively
affluent, and not especially lacking
in college degrees.
So what is distinctive about them?
According to a paper by Alan
Abramowitz, a political scientist at
Emory University: While conservatism is by far the strongest predictor of support for the Tea Party
movement, racial hostility also has a
significant impact on support.
So maybe Mr. Trumps support
base consists of angry, fairly affluent white racists sort of like The
DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES
Donald himself, only not as rich.
And maybe theyre not being hoodDonald Trump speaks at a debate featuring the 10 leading Republican presidential hopefuls earlier this month in Cleveland.
winked.
Now, you might ask why angry
racists are busting out of the chanweird if you consider the G.O.P.s
Regardless, once the right starts
Private Sector Job Growth in Two Recoveries
self-image. Republicans portray
saying that Mr. Obamas better renels that the G.O.P. constructed in
12000
Note: The data on this chart represents jobs
themselves as high priests of ecoorder to direct their rage. Well, we
covery wasnt really his doing, it has
gained or lost after the official end of two
have to take two things into account:
already lost the argument.
nomic growth the people who
recessions.
For
President
George
W.
Bush,
10000
the fact that America is becoming
Am I claiming that Mr. Obama
know how to bring forth prosperthe data starts in November 2001; for
President Obama, it starts in June 2009.
more socially and culturally diverse,
caused all that job creation? No
ity. And remember all the crowing
8000
and the Fox News effect, which has
policy was pretty much hamstrung
during the last election about how
created an angry white guy feedafter 2010. But conservatives confiPresident Obama was bungling
the recovery?
back loop.
dently predicted that Mr. Obamas
6000
But
now,
not
so
much.
The
chart
Again, until we have a good propolicies, especially his job-killing
Jobs gained/lost
(in Thousands)
on this page shows private-sector
health reform law, would, well, kill
file of the typical Trump supporter,
4000
job gains, in thousands, after the
jobs. This didnt happen nor did
this is all just guesswork. But for
end of two recessions the 2001
any of the other predicted Obama
what its worth, I do think that the
recession, and the 2007-2009 Great
disasters.
Trump phenomenon is much more
2000
Obama
Recession.
Recovery should have come much
grounded in fundamentals than the
Bush
You can argue that the economy
faster, but if President Romney were
commentariat yet grasps.
0
should have bounced back more
presiding over this economy, Restrongly from the deeper slump;
The Economy Vanishes
publicans would be hailing it as the
MONTHS AFTER RECESSION
on the other hand, the 2008 finansecond coming of Ronald Reagan.
There was almost no discussion
-2000
0 4
8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72
Instead, theyre trying to talk about
of the economy in the recent Repubcial crisis was huge, and such criSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
THE NEW YORK TIMES
something else.
lican presidential debate, which is
ses tend to leave a bad hangover.

READER COMMENTS FROM NYTIMES.COM

Remember Berlusconi?
In Italy, we had a similar situation in 1994 with Silvio Berlusconi, a nonprofessional politician
and successful entrepreneur with
a huge ego. He was also great at
grabbing the Italian medias attention.
Back then, many people thought
that Mr. Berlusconi wouldnt succeed in politics, but we elected him
prime minister.
Three times.
DOMENICO MENICUCCI, ITALY

I think a part of Donald Trumps

popularity has to do with the worship of money. Free market fanatics equate wealth with merit and
competence. They like the fact that
Mr. Trump is a strong rich guy who
embarrasses politicians (even conservative ones).
J.T.K., MASSACHUSETTS

What I observe with regard to

supporters of Mr. Trump is their
deep resentment of the American

political system. They seem to like

Mr. Trump not because of any particular political position he holds,
but because he does not engage in
doublespeak like most other politicians do.
I dont get the impression that racism drives most of his supporters,
but they are certainly energized by
Mr. Trumps willingness to not only
step over the line, but to drive over it
with a bulldozer. The same goes for
his attitude toward women. I dont
gather that his supporters are misogynistic, but they certainly seem
happy that Mr. Trump is willing to
stomp on societys taboos about how
women should be treated.

This situation seems like an inchoate rebellion by Mr. Trumps

supporters against the concept of
bowing to a political and social system that they dont believe deserves
respect.
J.S.D., NEW YORK

The real danger in this election

is that Mr. Trump might make the
rest of the Republican hopefuls
seem reasonable.
NAME WITHHELD, VIRGINIA

theory he finds on the Internet, gives

no indication of having ever read a
newspaper, gets his history from the
History Channel and says we need to
keep fighting wars in order to keep
the economy going.
DAVE COYNE, INDIANA

I have one request for you, Mr.

Krugman: Please stop talking
about Mr. Trump. Hes largely a
product of the media. Lets start discussing the issues.
LEN CHARLAP, NEW JERSEY

I have spoken with only one

person who supports Mr. Trump.
This person may be atypical, but he
seems to believe every conspiracy

Tea Party voters are probably

leaning toward Republican candidates Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio,

rather than Mr. Trump.

The Trump supporters Ive heard
from like him because hes not part
of the political class, and he isnt
afraid to say what he really thinks.
His supporters seem to view him
simply as a straight shooter with a
backbone who is at least willing to
stand up for something.
MOLSON, MINNESOTA

ONLINE: COMMENTS
Comments have been edited for clarity
and length. For Paul Krugmans latest
thoughts and to join the debate online,
visit his blog at krugman.blogs.
nytimes.com.

PAUL KRUGMAN

BACKSTORY

In Britain, a Flight to the Right

The Rise of Jeremy Corbyn

I havent been closely following

the developments in British politics
since the recent election, but people
have been asking me to comment on
the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn as
a serious contender for the leadership of the Labour Party. And I do
have a few thoughts.
First, its really important to
understand that the austerity policies of the current government are
not, as much of the British press
portrays them, the only responsible
answer to the countrys fiscal crisis.
There is no fiscal crisis, except in
the imagination of Britains Very
Serious People. The governments
policies had large costs, and the
economic upturn that Britain experienced when fiscal tightening was
put on hold does not justify those
costs. In fact, the whole austerian
ideology is based on fantasy economics; its actually the anti-austerians who are basing their views on

modern macroeconomic theory and

the best evidence.
Nonetheless, all the contenders for Labour leadership other
than Mr. Corbyn a member of
Parliament representing Islington
North have chosen to accept the
austerian ideology in full, including
the false claims that Labour was
fiscally irresponsible and that this
irresponsibility caused the crisis.
As Simon Wren-Lewis, an Oxford
economist, says, when Labour supporters reject this move, they arent
moving left, theyre refusing to
follow a party elite that has decided
to move sharply to the right.
Whats been going on within the
Labour Party reminds me of what
went on in the United States within
the Democratic Party during the
Reagan administration and again
for a while under President George
W. Bush: Many leading Democrats
fell into what Josh Marshall at Talk-

ing Points Memo used to call the

cringe basically accepting the
rights worldview, but trying to win
office by being a bit milder. There
was a cartoon during the Reagan years that, as I remember it,
showed Democrats laying out their
platform: big military spending, tax
cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for the
poor. But how does that make you
different from Republicans? the
caption read. Compassion we
care about the victims of our policies.
I dont fully understand the apparent moral collapse of New Labour after an election that was not,
if you look at the numbers, actually
an overwhelming endorsement of
the Tories. But should we really be
surprised if many Labour supporters still believe in what their party
used to stand for, and are unwilling
to support the Cringe Caucus in
its flight to the right?

ANDREW TESTA/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Ed Miliband, the former leader

of the Labour Party, resigned
after losing to the Conservatives
in Mays elections.

READER COMMENTS FROM NYTIMES.COM

Ensuring That the Elected Stay True to the Electorate

Those of us who are left-leaning
members of Britains Labour
Party arent trying to stage some
sort of political infiltration or
coup were simply trying to
ensure that the party stays true to
its founding principles and that the
lawmakers we elect represent the
people that theyre supposed to.
Also, our policy proposals are
built on sound macroeconomic
evidence unlike the failed and
discredited notion of austerity.
C., BRITAIN

If the Labour Party wants to

shift the terms of the debate
away from a focus on neoliberal economics, then its members
should electJeremy Corbyn as their
leader. Yes, the mainstream media
in Britain will relentlessly attack
Mr. Corbyn, but this may end up attracting more people to his cause.
ED, BRITAIN

Scotland and the postindustrial

north of England are vital areas
for the Labour Party, but its tra-

ditional supporters are increasingly attracted to two insurgent

parties: the Scottish National
Party and the U.K. Independence
Party. Labour seems to think that
this is 1997 all over again, and all
they have to do is win over middle
England while taking the heartland
for granted.
NICK FLETCHER,BRITAIN

Many members of Britains political establishment seem to be

shocked lately at the realization

that left-wing politics isnt dead

in the country. The elections earlier this year were not an endorsement of the Tories.
They were simply a rejection of
Labour Party policies.
BOB, BRITAIN

I dont know much about British

politics, but Mr. Corbyns unwavering sympathy for our incompetent government here in Venezuela
makes me quite wary of him.
DANIEL CRISTINI, VENEZUELA

Britains Labour Party has called

a vote for new leadership and
many observers have been surprised by public support for Jeremy
Corbyn, a left-wing party member.
In the wake of their defeat in the
general election earlier this year,
some lawmakers in Labours leadership have posited that they lost because they couldnt credibly convince voters that the party would
effectively implement austerity measures and reduce the nations deficit. But Mr. Corbyn, a member of
Parliament for Islington North, has
challenged that notion, and actually
supports ending Britains austerity
policies altogether.
Mr. Corbyns positions, along with
his policy proposals, are considered
radical by much of the British media, but supporters point out that his
views reflect those of many voters
within the partys rank and file.
Commentators have also pointed
out that Mr. Corbyns left-wing views
were relatively common among the
partys politicians until Labours
rightward turn under Prime Minister Tony Blair in the late 1990s. Some
critics of the current Labour Party have suggested that the establishment has acquiesced to the Conservative Partys narrative of Britains
economic crisis, which suggests that
spending by the previous Labour
government, not the risky decisions
of banks, was responsible for the
downturn.
Mr. Corbyn, in contrast, has kept
his focus on the banks and against
austerity. Labour must lead the economic debate and be confident in offering a clear, coherent alternative to

the Tories pernicious austerity agenda, he told The Independent newspaper on Aug. 5. In accepting the
economic narrative set by the Conservatives, the Labour Party surrendered its own economic credibility.
Referring to Mr. Corbyn and his
supporters, the Guardian columnist
Seumas Milne recently argued that
the parallels with the anti-austerity movements that threw up Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece and are
fueling Bernie Sanders campaign
for the U.S. Democratic nomination
are clear. Mr. Milne also noted that
despite the fierce opposition of party leaders, [Mr. Corbyn] has pushed
an anti-austerity agenda into the
heart of political debate, forced his rivals to halt their shift to the right and
brought tens of thousands of young
people into active politics.

Paul Krugman
joined The New
York Times in 1999
as a columnist on
the Op-Ed page
and continues
as a professor of
economics and
international
affairs at Princeton
University. He was awarded the
Nobel in economic science in 2008.
Mr. Krugman is the author or editor
of 21 books and more than 200
papers in professional journals and
edited volumes. His latest book is
End This Depression Now!