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Steele & Weaver 2002-Mortality Profiles
Steele & Weaver 2002-Mortality Profiles
Introduction
aunal analysts have long recognized that the age
distribution of a species in an assemblage provides information about the specimens pre- or
post-depositional history. Age structures or mortality
profiles found in fossil samples can inform on the mode
of death or bone accumulation. Age structures are
often compared to two theoretical models that are
based on observations in wildlife biology and characterize stable populations of large mammals that give
birth to only one ospring at a time. The first model
describes the age structure of a live herd on the
landscape, and, therefore, it is often called a living
structure (e.g. Stiner, 1990). This mortality structure is
also frequently called a catastrophic profile (e.g.
Klein, 1982b), because it is the age structure that would
be found in a fossil assemblage if an entire herd was
destroyed by a flash flood, volcanic eruption, or other
disaster. The second model is directly related to the
first, because it corresponds to deaths that occur in
between each age class in the living structure (i.e. the
natural attrition on the herd); thus, this model is
often called an attritional profile (e.g. Klein, 1982b).
Attritional mortality aects mainly the youngest and
oldest members of the population, and, therefore,
an attritional age structure is often referred to as a
U-shaped profile (e.g. Klein, 1982b; Stiner, 1990).
Triangular Graphs
A common way of representing age structures in
zooarchaeological publications is to use a triangular
graph, or ternary diagram, as proposed by Stiner
(1990, 1994). In this method, specimens are assigned to
one of three age classes: young, prime and old, and the
proportions of individuals in each class are plotted on
a triangular graph (see Figure 1a). The vertical axis
represents the percentage of old individuals, and the
top corner represents 100% old specimens in the
sample. The right corner represents 100% prime domination, and the left corner represents 100% juvenile
317
03054403/02/$-see front matter
318
100% Old
(b)
100% Old
1 = Hypothetical 1
2 = Hypothetical 2
3 = Hypothetical 3
1 = Hypothetical 1
Old dominated
0% Prime
0% Juvenile
0% Prime
0% Juvenile
3
Attritional
Living
Juvenile
dominated
100%
Juvenile
Prime
dominated
0% Old
(c)
100%
Prime
100% Old
100%
Juvenile
0% Old
(d)
100% Old
1 = Hypothetical 1
2 = Hypothetical 2
3 = Hypothetical 3
0% Prime
100%
Prime
0% Juvenile
0% Prime
0% Juvenile
2
100%
Juvenile
0% Old
100%
Prime
100%
Juvenile
0% Old
100%
Prime
Figure 1. (a) A triangular graph indicating the five zones for dierent age structures as defined by Stiner (1990: 318). Three hypothetical data
sets plot in dierent zones, and, therefore, they would be interpreted as representing three dierent mortality profiles. (b) A modified triangular
graph showing the distribution of the 10,000 re-samples and the 95% density contour for sample 1. Many of the re-samples plot in the same
location, so less than 10,000 points are visible. (c) A modified triangular graph with the 95% density contours for the three hypothetical samples.
Although each sample plots within a dierent zone on the graph and therefore should have dierent age structures, not all the samples can be
separated. Only samples 2 and 3 can be confidently dierentiated from each other, while neither samples 1 and 2 nor samples 1 and 3 can be
dierentiated. (d) A modified triangular graph demonstrating the eects of sample size on the ability to distinguish age structures, because the
95% density contours increase with smaller sample sizes. The percentage of each age class remains the same, and only the total sample size
changes. All data are listed in Table 1.
Juvenile
Prime
Old
35
35
35
100
40
12
95
64
316
114
86
95
12 (343)
19 (543)
5 (143)
33 (330)
13 (325)
4 (333)
20 (211)
42 (656)
96 (304)
43 (377)
39 (459)
43 (453)
17 (486)
11 (314)
16 (457)
50 (500)
20 (500)
6 (500)
54 (568)
19 (297)
196 (620)
53 (465)
39 (459)
44 (463)
6 (171)
5 (143)
14 (400)
17 (170)
7 (175)
2 (167)
21 (221)
3 (47)
24 (76)
18 (158)
7 (82)
8 (84)
320
100% Old
(b)
100% Old
= Gazella (MP)
= Dama (MP)
= Gazella (MP)
= Dama (UP)
E = Elandsfontein
K = Klasies River
Mouth
0% Prime
0% Juvenile
0% Prime
0% Juvenile
100%
Juvenile
K
0% Old
100%
Prime
100%
Juvenile
0% Old
100%
Prime
Figure 2. (a) A modified triangular graph displaying the age structure data for the extinct giant African bualo found in the South African sites
of Elandsfontein and Klasies River Mouth. The non-overlap of the two density contours indicates that these two samples dier significantly
when complete age profiles are examined. Data are from Klein (1982a: 155) and Lyman (1994: 130). (b) A modified triangular graph showing
the age structure data for gazelles and fallow deer from Kebara Cave, Israel. MP stands for Middle Paleolithic and UP for Upper Paleolithic.
Data are from Speth & Tchernov (1998: 231). All data are listed in Table 1.
Conclusions
The triangular graph is a popular method for comparing the age structures of multiple samples and species
using multiple types of age determination methods.
However, it cannot be used for statistical inference,
since it does not account for sample size. The modified
triangular graph program described here solves this
problem by bootstrapping the original data to allow
statistical dierentiation of samples on a triangular
graph. The program produces 95% density contours
that reflect sample size. Therefore, it allows multiple
assemblages to be compared more confidently. A
Macintosh program to calculate and plot 95% density
contours on a triangular graph is available from the
authors.
Acknowledgements
Richard G. Klein kindly commented on an earlier draft
of this paper. The L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the
Mellon Foundation, and the Stanford University
Department of Anthropological Sciences generously
provided support for this research.
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