WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.

COM
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EE E K L Y
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24 AUGUST 28 AUGUST 2015

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS
Rupee falls against US dollar;
hits fresh 2-year low.
Asian forex slips after China
posts worst ever factory
activity survey.
Sterling hits 7-week high
against dollar as Fed's rate
hike prospects fade.
China-fuelled risk aversion lifts
euro to 2-month high.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

65.1575

65.9450

India
Rupee
continued
the
depreciation of last week and
dragged to hit fresh lows after two
years i.e. September 2013 which also
dampened the sentiments in
domestic
Equity
markets.
Devaluation of Yuan by China on
August 11 resulted in sustained
selling pressure of emerging market
currencies along with Rupee. Indian
currency is already near the
psychological level of 66.0000 and
any further economic slowdown
worries can result in further
depreciation. In coming week key
events which can result in volatility is
GDP q/q of US.

KEY RATES As on 21/08/2015

% CHANGE
REFERENCE RATE
(USD)

65.8298

REPO RATE

7.25%

REVERSE REPO

6.25%

1.20

EURINR

72.8575

74.3675

2.07

GBPINR

101.8550

103.3475

1.46

CRR

4%

JPYINR

52.5275

53.8075

2.43

INFLATION

-4.05%

USDINR

USDINR last week continued the bull rally of last week due to Chinese economy volatility and
currency depreciation which made the greenback strong and Rupee to depreciate near two year
lows. Now, if the conditions worsen then it may head towards the next psychological level of
67.0000 while any closing below 64.5000 can result in some correction for the counter.

EURINR

EURINR last week after flat trade in initial part of week surpassed the important resistance of
73.4400 and closed above it with gain of approx 2%. Now, the counter is very near to
psychological resistance level of 75.1000 and 73.4000 may act as near term support in the week
below which 72.5000 is seen as next support.

PIVOT TABLE
CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

65.6000

65.2000

64.7000

66.5000

67.0000

67.4000

EURINR

73.4000

72.5000

71.7000

75.1000

75.8000

76.5000

GBPINR

102.2000

101.2000

100.5000

104.1000

105.0000

106.2000

JPYINR

53.1000

52.5000

51.8000

54.2000

54.9000

55.7000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
Housing Starts in U.S. Climbed in July to Almost Eight Yr High.
U.S. CPI shows rose a scant 0.1% in July to mark the smallest
increase in three months.
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 277,000, an
increase of 4,000 from the previous week.
DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG
ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS
LEVEL

25-AUG-2015

7:30
PM

US

CB Consumer
Confidence

92.8

90.9

26-AUG-2015

6:00
PM

US

Core Durable
Goods Order

0.3%

0.6%

US

Prelim GDP q/q

3.2%

2.3%

US

Unemployment
Claims

275k

277k

6:00
27-AUG-2015
PM
6:00
27-AUG-2015
PM

DISCLAIMER

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