> - ‘a Tae ik : aN —~ “am im ‘ 6 WES. a - anies ry aiiACR Bota ol amie yy in which'man takes good care of 'the earth CeO a ee eed Con eae er eau SE oe eee eee ear crs Oe eRINTRODUCING THE FP 100 elcome to this special issue, dedicated to ForEIGN Poticy’s Ist Annual List of the 100 ‘Top Global Thinkers. In a year of worldwide economic crisis and dangerous wars, of radical innovation and newfound realpolitik, street revolution and blunt rhetoric, we could think of no better way to make sense of it than through the big ideas of those who shape our understanding, of the world. This is our first ever seventh issue, and we hope to make ian annual tradition as well ‘The list has boldface names and those who aren't yet but soon will bes it features philanthrocapitalists and new atheists, intellectuals- turned-politicians and politicians who are surprisingly intellectual. ‘Throughout, we strove to recognize those leaders who are major ac tors in the global marketplace of ideas—and especially those who ‘mattered most in 2009. Which is why the list is heavily weighted to- ward the people whose work seemed most urgent and indispensable this year, from the authors whose books commanded our attention £0 side the Pentagon 0 the general waging an intellectual insurgenc fight a real insurgency on the ground. ‘No surprise, then, that nearly one-fifth of the list is made up of economists as we collectively struggled to understand the Great Re cession, Seers like Nouriel Roubini (No. 4) and Robert Shiller (No. 22) found their every pronouncement a subject of market-moving news this year, while interpreters like the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf (No. 15) and the New York Times’ Paul Krugman (No. 29) became ever more vital reading for those looking to navigate the storm, And as governments steered collective trillions to the rescue, it was only fitting that the chief helmsman, a scholar-doer if ever there was one, should earn the top place on our list USS. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke found in 2009 the chance of a lifetime to put his decades of studying the Great Depression to work staving off another one. ‘With such an extraordinary collection of the globe's smart set on our list, we decided a survey iid hear directly from these incomparable thinkers. We asked them 10 questions on everything from what the world’s biggest crisis of 2010 will be to how they rate USS. President Barack Obama’s (No. 2} first year in offices nearly two-thirds of the list responded, and you can find their fascinating answers on page 32, We took the survey directly to former President Bill Clinton (No. 6), whose exclusive interview with us starting on page 34 roams from Mongolia to the Middle East, with stops in between for his must-read book recommendations, his favorite columnists, and the world leaders he thinks we should be watching. You can take the survey yourself online at ForeignPolicy.com and see how your views compare with those of our Global Thinkers. ‘We also asked members of the list to tell us more about the ideas that matter, like Harvard University economic historian Niall Ferguson (No. 56), with his smart essay on the Top Dead Thinkers of 2009, and Malcolm Gladwell (No. 19), with his own list of the thinkers he turns to ‘when working on his best-selling books. Carlos Lozada, an FP alumnus and now editor of the Washington Post’s Outlook section, goes backstage with Big Think best-sellers such as Fareed Zakaria (No. 37), Robert Kagan (No. 66), and Francis Fukuyama (No. 65) to find out why some big. ideas strike big (End of History, anyone?) and others disappear without a trace. Make sure to check out as well FOREIGN POLICY’s Joshua E. Keating on the Top Stories You Missed in 2009, starting on page 10. From the opening of the northeast passage through the An tic Sea (thanks, global warming) to the nuclear tensions becween China and India, ics a gripping read about the corners of the world you might be hearing a lot more about in 2010. was in order so that you The Editors ecemasn 2008 1THE FP TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS in Ben Bemanke + Berack Obama + Zara Rahnvard + Noutiel Roubini « Rajendra Pachauri «Bll Clinton and Hilary Rodham Clinton + Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler + David Petraeus + Zhau Xiaochuan + Sayyid Imam al-Sharf« Femando Henrique Cardoso «Bil Gates + Dick Cheney + Lary Summers » Martin Wolf» Mohamed El-Erian + Benedict XVI + Richard Dawkins + Malooim Gladwell Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart + Thomas Friedman + Robert Shiller + Vaclav Havel «Cris Anderson «Joseph Stigitz + Aung San Suu Kyi Robert Wright «Elinor Ostrom + Paul Krugman « Kofi Annan « Bernard-Henri Ley Anwar Ibrahim « Robert Zelick ‘and Dominique Strauss-Kahn «John Holdren and Steven Chu «Nicholas Stern + Paul Collier «Fareed Zakaria « George Soros Jeffey D. ‘Sachs + Willam Easterly «Esther Duflo «Jered Diamond + Richard Posner « David Kcullen « Abdokkarim Soroush + Muhammad Yunus « Christopher Hitchens “Ayaan Hirsi A Tarig Ramadan + Nicholas Christakis “Ahmed Rashid «Helene Gayle Linus Torvalds «Tim Berners- Lee + Henry Kissinger «Niall Ferguson « Bakasar Garzén + Amaya Sen Barbara Ehrenreich «Bruce Bueno de Mesquita» Salam Fayyad + Xu Zhiyong + Mario Vargas Llosa « Michel Ignatieff « Francis Fukuyama The Kagan family «C. Raja Mohan « James Hansen + Freeman Dyson « Esther Dyson « Ray Kurzweil -Jamais Cascio « Nick Bostrom + Gordon Brown « Richard Haass + George Ayitey + Amory Lovins + Bll McKibben + Anne-Marie Slaughter + Samantha Power + John Arquila + Peter W. Singer » Paul Farmer + Hu Shul « Jacqueline Novogratz + Jacques Atal + Karen Armstrong + Sunita Narain + Adam Michnik + Minxin Pei + Wilem Buiter » Rizal Sukma + Martha Nussbaum « Devid Grossman + Enrique Krauze « Hans Rosling « Valerie Hudson Andrew Mwenda « Emily Oster « Paul Kennedy 2 Fosstox poticy8 i Z A @ E 5 a 10 The Stories You Missed in 2009 By Joshua E. Keating 34: Bill Clinton's World In an exclusive interview, the former president tells FoReiGN Pouicy what to read, who to watch, and why there really is a chance of Midlle East peace in 2010, 40' AlQaeda’s Dissident By Jaret Brachman EXCLUSIVE 32:| THEFP SURVEY We've polled the FP 100 to offer you the wisdom of the smart crowd on everything. from what's ahead in 2010 to what they're reading now. Here, the breakdown of ‘who's who on our list. Deanna) 45) Market Riot How the crisis inspired an entirely new set of big ideas on big money. By Noam Scheiber 46) DeadMen Walking Why 2009 cruly top thinkers are yesterday's news, By Nal Ferguson a 5A! The Anti-God Squad ‘The New Atheists aren't all chat. By Robert Wright 5B | A How-To Guide for Putting Your Big Think on the Map by cars ozo 63: The COINdinistas An insider's gnide, By Thomas E.Reks MISSING LINKS. 80 The Missing Where have all the Sakharovs gone? By Moisés WaiHow Do You Score? For this special isue of Frei POUCY, we poled the world’s top glbal thinker to find aut thei views onthe big (2s pola and economic ‘questions facing the planet. Now t's your tur. Vist gjobathinkers to take the sume survey wo sent to our FP ‘00 and se how your answers matchup agains the verte your favorite author's favorit author! ay Check ots oatincae list compiled = font Ste con tere fre wihncet, ‘enigma vente any Sich ete tes corer Mc to Set tanta Cowie co an Think weleft someone off this years list? We're already taking nomi- nations for next year. top byand vote forthe unrecog- rized thinker you believes. having the greatest impact on the word Hate the list? hhink the Dalai Lama got robbed? Want to offer your competing theory of how the Internet is changing public intellectualism? With ForeignPolicy.com’s new design, eo menting ¢ articles has never been easier. Here's what readers. had to say about some of our recent pieces: (On “Think Again: God,” by Karen Armstrong VoieeOtReason: "You my nthe i but regina event ofr e¢g paey as economics, history demogaphies, ee, What peep bee, why they balveli, nd the tenets of such belt erastcally infuorce how peoie act. ad] what decisions they make. Reigonis as important nt mores, tran any citer lament of pata scusion and itabodutayhasa rt i be on this page” On “Plague,” by Robin Cook Philip Traum: "tcan accep each traits teas posse ora deady hyd coc abouts ely ‘asa dozen ther at etal apocalyptic scenarios, al of whch are ‘one vege of cooing aoaeding {oho you len to rane of which ar ashy as singly dying in a cae ‘rather rom some othe mundane caus, tut rosa dom make good ‘eon. Continue wearing el hats ine your gos ask aden sod, Igo on ning beoreutmatey ag stuck andl by anion, fordon comet” On "Recipe for Failure,” by Bruce Bueno de Mesquite ‘SLG: *So what we lam stats Fil if theoretical gor—o he solos! sack siances bring—s Uoekd way scien enoreus amount of dtl Tha ro manifesto for game theo) or Bueno de Mes qutas|chamning atemot to peoduce supedealoolicalsince scaled sedial scence: know your stl and then ue heretical ol sy rearing, generatzable hing. OOD EL y Charles Kenny Ces Poe ey ee gee rar See ee nd a! eeeroreet ts ete eee ete ts Se es SE ear eet ere pened eee eat eee ee) enn On “Get Nasty or Go Home,” by Michal Scheuer PSGute: The United Sats, thank od, srt capa of Gating enough to con be lg poops. less wo ar wing to recognize he mul gneratonal amitment rece to change he social trot ofthe popula, tee ae wilng 0 committe seureesin blood end reasue todo so wile accepting the condemna- Fon ef he interatonal academic are pocal elie for forcing our ay of ie on ance nation, we ned to sstoutnow"TEXAS A&M U N I.V E RgS®I T Y mY hy ®@ | DISTANCE EDUCATION Over 20 Graduate Degrees and C now available online to fit your Sev area ee Uk MLC tel ta) Peclle a Te ene eect acid - Education and Human Development - Department ia tet - Engineering Peete eae) Peel rat ume ae Creed Beretta Sei ens) 979-845-4282 http://distance.tamu.eduFP ees atte Moists Naiss EDITOR IN CHIEF SUSAN GLASSER Buaxe Hoonsiet Bryan ERICKSON associate eorron REWECCA FRANKEL ‘Assist EprToRS Putt AROON, ELtzanens DICKINSON, Davin KENNER, ANKIE LOWREY RESEARCHERS BONNY PUERCE, LAUREN SEYERIED, MORDCHAL SHUALY, JORDANA TIMERMAN DEPUTY Wes EDITOR JosHUA F. 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MANDERSEAM BUSINESS ASISTANT ROMTY Essar EDITORIAL BOARD Moron Armonis,JguesAJo Dec, Joge-Dumignes, Lanne Fela, ec Fanaa, Yep ids Digs Hig, Saney Matias, Tha gies Kalan ene thew, Dol ten are Nein, They e Monn Jou’ ef S Ou etn Qa Joh il Gams os oe Sab Hela ores, Seo To shal Ulan Scher Mike Forercn Poticy 1599 L Srese NW, Suite $50, Washington, DC 20056 Publishing ice (202) 728-7540 w Subsepions: (800) 335.6543 SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES Foti Poco 474 Me Mai I. 6105485 gy sues gab com (0) S369 n US {B86 2460120 US, Pabaons mal open w,A7¥S6. asin Sf $2498 ft ne yen $4 fr wo yas nade S12 psa ed nig, ‘he sons ye Fo aenensaes fo to Fast \lcection, NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Cris il Cau 730 fe Ron, ew Mont N06 348 2 68 74 BACK ISSUES 1095 er cy: erin ia al $0 ep nw: gona ena pay ‘andolphaneetamomignPobcom, OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS Copii ierane Cente Ins 178) 750 54th woop — ranean ax pins BE soantacaiss (© fons 6 Foxstox PoticySu. [ le it Tdsta Ist TWildv> Nvadouna a>uauadka anbuun siya jo n> uegan pue ye ArerodwayU0! m4 aanyng Jo jeuide> ueadouns O10, ““|nqueis|NEW BOOK FROM SS 3 Well-researched and clearly argued, Shifting Superpowers is a great read. With a wide-ranging knowledge of the subject, Sieff pulls together wonderful historical bits and pieces to give us critically needed perspective on the challenging global trends that frame our lives, — STEFAN HALPER, Cambridge University — MARTIN SIEFF RO Shifting THE NEW AND EMERGNG RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES CHINA, A HOA A pioneering, essential guide, Shifting Superpowers energizes and clarifies the debate over the proper direction of US. foreign policy in Asia. HAROCOVER: $26 » EBOOK: $14 LPR aL) nationwide, US EPO MA in Global Development ‘Now accepting applications for the Master af Arts pragrams in Global Development Policy (GDP) and Global Development Economies (GDE). 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Sometimes its the page Aig stories—the ones that never see the light of cable news or take on a second life in the blogosphere— thar tell you the most about what happened during any given year, From a naval alliance that could shift the military balance of power on two continents to a troubling security gap in the U.S. passport system to a brand-new way to circle the globe, these are the stories that never got the attention they deserved in 2009 but could dominate the conversation in 2010. By lashua E. Keatingees The Northeast Passage Opens for Business The mythic Northwest Passage sil captures but this September, eo German vessels made history by Ihecomsing the first commercial ships to travel from East Asia to Western Europe via the northeast passage beeween Russia and the Arete. Iee previously made the route impassable, bue thanks to rising global temperatures, it’s now a cakewalk. “There was virtually no ice on most of the route,” Cape. Valeriy Ducov told the BBC. “Twenty yeats ago, when 1 worked inthe eastern part ofthe Arctic, 1 Coulda’eeven imagine something like this.” “The significance of this development varies dependin suhom yon ask, The passage coud he a gold mine for the commercial shipping industry, opening up a vastly shorter and cheaper route from Asia to Europe. But for environ- mentalist, the news isa sign that climate change may be reaching a dangerous tipping point. Scientists" latest observations suggest that the Arctic might be largely ice-free during the summer within the next decade. The environmental consequences—inereased flooding in coastal regions around the world and extine tion of local animal species—are well known. Bur the thaw also opens possibilities for geopolitical comps has literally planted its flag beneath the Aret ing a claim 10 newly accessible nacuralresourees, much co the consternation of the other norther states. The newly ‘opened route will also heneit Russia by bringing new he ness (0 its eastern ports. With the scramble for the Arctic’s riches heating up, even peaceful Canada has been holding ‘war games to prepare for possible military confrontation, [rags New Flashpoint ‘With che international media and chattering classes turning their focus to Kabul, almost any news coming out of Baghdad gor short shrift this Year. Thar’ unforeunate because even as ‘overall violence declined in Irag, the conflict is far from over. From a persistent insurgency eatrying out regular attacks in major cites, tothe country’s 2.7 million remaining internal refugees, o a distressing lack of political reconciliation in Baghdad, Iraq has any number of emerging flashpoints that threaten to tear apart the tentative progress of recent years And most troubling ofall may be the growing fears of a new conflict between Iraq's Arab and Kurdish populations. ‘The limited attention this subject has gotten so far has fo ccused on the Kurdish claims co oil-rich Kirkuk, but analysts Joshua E. Keating is depusy Web editor at Yoseie Potiey fated edits FP's Passport blog. Doccsnnen 2009 11= STORIES YOU MISSED say developments in nearby Nineveh, the province around the northem city of Mosul, might be more dangerous sil ‘The area is south of the Kurdish border, but contains a large Kurdish population that is eager to incorporate the territory into Kurdistan. Following the U.S. invasion, the Kurds became politically dominant in Nineveb, largely because of the apathy of the local Sunni population, and stationed peshmerga militia troops in the area in an effort to bring it under Kurdish contol “That changed in January when Sunnis rallied around the hard-line Arab nationalist party al-Hadba—which cam- Paigned on a platform of pushing out the peshmerga and countering Kurdish influence—and handed ita narrow ma- jority in Nineveh’s provincial elections The Kurdish Fratemal Lise, the main Kurdish party inthe region, walked out of the provincial council, vowing not co retin unless it was given a number of senior leadership positions. With both sides threatening to resort to violence to resolve the dispute and insurgent attacks continuing, inchad- ing a truck bombing thac killed 20 in a Kurdish village in September, agi and U.S. authorities increasingly view Nineveh’scontlie as the greatest threat ro Iraq's stability. “Without a compromise deal, [Nineveh] risks dragging the country asa whole on a downward slope,” Louloawa al- Rachid, the International Crisis Groups senior Iraq analyst, said in September. As one sign of how tense the situation has become, U.S. troops were still patrolling in Mosal months after thei official withdrawal from other Iragi cities. ‘AHotline for China and India “Hotlines” between world leaders, like the legendary Moscow-Washington “red telephone” devised after the ‘Caban missile crisis, are designed co prevent misundes- standings or miscommunications between nuclear pow= cers from escalating into a nuclear conflict. China and the United States have one. So do India and Pakistan. This year the leaders of India and China agreed to set one up between New Delhi and Beijing, highlighting coneerns that a worsening border dispute could quickly become the first major conflict of the multipolar era. Asia's wo emerging superpowers are at odds over the Himalayan region of Tawang, a distrit of India’s Arunachal Pradesh state that China claims is historically part of Tibet and therefore within China's borders. The countries fought a war over the territory in 1962 thae killed more than 2,000 soldiers. The India-based Dalai Lama has a great deal of influence over the region’s largely tlic Tibetan population, further irritating Beijing. The area has been inereasingly militarized, and the Indian mili 12 Fonrtex Poucy tary documented 270 horder violations and almost 2,300 cases of “aggressive border patrolling” by the Chinese in 2008. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited the area in October, drawing official protests and retaliatory measures from Beijing In June, the Times of India seposted that Chinese President Hu Jintao suggested to Singh that the hotine be setups hae the border dispts i lead to mitary— Although likely « prudent precaution, the hotine i am in- dication that Tawang has joined Kashmir as one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoint. ° ANew Housing Bubble? More than any other facto ilkadvised speculation on US. realestate set off he global financial criss. But even after lions of foreclosures and secondary effects rippled through «economies around the world, US. homeowners might be starting to make the same mistakes all over again. ‘After suffering their largest month-to-month drop in history, U.S. home prices began to increase again in May. The SS&P/Case-Shiller index, widely considered the most reliable measure of housing prices inthe United States, rose 3.4 percent between May and July, with gains in 18 of the 20 cities che index measures, Prices were still 13.3 per- cent lower chan last year, but even chat figure was less than expected. The release ofthis data coincided with other positive indicators, including an increase in existing home sales and home construction. “We've found the bottom,” ‘one eeonomist told the New York Times, Not so fast. Economist Robert Shiller, one ofthe indes creators, sees the numbers as alarming rather than promis- ing. Pointing to survey data showing that most homeown- crs think thac their house will increase dramatically in value over the next decade, he worries that “bubble think- ing” might once again be taking hold. (je appears that the extreme ups and downs of the housing market have turned many Americans into housing speculators,” he wrote in the New York Times The government's solution to the housing crisis might, ironically, be causing the new problem, by encouraging itresponsible home buying by people who aren't able 10 afford it. The Federal Housing Administration, which backed nearly 2 million mortgages in 2009, saiv the per centage ofits loans that are delinquent oF in foreclosore rise 6 nearly 8 percent in June, and the agency is quickly ‘burning through its reserves for loan losses. A congres sional committee has been formed to investigate the losses. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said thae Congcess should look into the potential trade-offs of federal loan support. ‘With prices looking likely co keep rising in the near term and the U.S. government giving, generous incentives for homeowners, there's 2 risk that the same irresponsible speculative behavior that caused the Great Recession mighe be returning,The Civilian Surge’ Fizzles In November 2007, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivered a now-famous speech at Kansas State Univer- sity im which he acknowledged that “military success is not sufficient to win" counterinsurgeney wars such a5, those in Iraq and Afghanistan and called for an increased role and inereased funding for the State Department and the US. Agency for International Development (USAID). In its Aighan strategy this March, Barack Obama's administration seemed to be following through om this advice, calling fora “civilian surge” of State Depart ‘ment and USAID personnel to complement the inereased number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, “What we can’t dlo is think that just a military approach in Afghanistan is going to be able to solve our problems,” Obama told 660 Minutes, echoing Gates's rhetoric. ‘Just one month later, however, the administration asked Gates to identity 300 military personnel to fill jobs in Afghanistan intended for civilian experts, as not enough civilians were available. Defense Undersecretary Michele Flournoy acknowledged thae the government ‘was “playing a game of catch-up” after years of not developing civilian expertise. The Pentagon has also been taking over traditional State Department functions in neighhoring Pakistan, an Unprecedented step in a country where US. troops aren't formally allowed to operate. Under a supplemental fund- ing bill passed in June, the Pentagon was given temporary authority to manage a $400 million fund designed to boost the Pakistani military's counterinsurgency eapabili- ties, Military assistance of this kind is usually supervised by the State Department, but Gates—along with Cent- ‘com commander Gen. David Petracus—argued success fully thatthe State Department lacked the capability co administer it ‘The Stare Department may yer live up 0 the inital vision ‘of Gates and Obama—a planned “civilian response corps” that would be able to deploy as-many’as 400 ciilians (0 eon- flict areas seems promising —and Foggy Bottom i lace 0 ‘eventually take over the Pakistan counterinsurgency fand. But for now, the dream ofa civilian surge co match the miliary cffor seems far off, As analyst Anthony Cordesman, who has advised the U.S. military on Afghanistan, put it, *[Wye need to stop talking about ‘smart power as if we hadi.” eo ‘The Beijing Brazil Naval xis Ever since China not so secretly bough several aging So- vot srraftcariers during the 1990s, China’ ambitions naval plans have been the subject of fevered speculation by military analysts: In Marchs Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guangli offered the strongest confirmation yet thar China plans embark on a major airtel building peogran teing hs Japanese counteepar, “enced ta develop an aircraft carrer” The Pentagon thinks that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ould have multiple carcers op and running within the lecade, with construction cost key 10 run int the Billions, With lite nthe way of aval aviaion exper tence, China would need to gets sation and plots Up © Speck ins hur to mect thar timetable and that tneans finding an alteady ‘operational eater to “The troubles, only eel a _ carriers capable of ranch ing conventional aircraft. i A “The United States has " litle inerest in helping dhe Chinese military France is profubited from doing so by a European Union embargo, Sind Russia has recent grown more wary about miliary ooperation with its powerful southern neighbor That Ieqves Bra which was ony too happy to et MAN bffcers tran aboard te $2-yearold eatin, the Sto Paulo (eich tought from France in 2000). razon Defense Minister Nelson Jobim reveaed the program inn imerview witha Brazilian defense website n May [Although the exact terms ofthe deal ae unknown, it invwely dhogght tha the Chinese might be nding restoration of the aging So Paulo in exchange forthe Dccsnnen 2009 13,New York is INTERNATIONAL THE NEW SCHOOL is New York EARN A MASTER'S DEGREE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Join a community of students from 62 countries—from, NGO activists, executives of international organizations, and experts in technology, media, and finance, to returned Peace Corps volunteers and recent college graduates—each desiring to effect real change in the world. Here, you'll combine interdisciplinary study with practical problem-solving skills, and gain new perspec- tives that can only be found in the world's most international city. * Work directly with international practitioners and scholars + Explore issues in global economics, poverty and development, cities and urbanization, international institutions, NGOs, human rights, conflict and security, and media and culture Learn from summer fieldwork experiences around the world For information on upcoming admissions events of more about the program, contact admissions at 212.229.5630 or visit us online www.newschool.edu/ia31. THE NEW SCHOO training program. A Chinese naval website also hinted that China mighe be helping Brazil build nuclear sub- marines, and Jobim himself said that he hoped the program would lead to military cooperation in other areas. The United States has long been the dominant naval power in East Asia, but Chinese ships have recently heen growing bolder about shadowing and confronting U.S. vessels and launching Tegal challenges to what Beijing views as unlavful intrusions into Chinese waters. With China and India undes going massive military buildups—the Indians are working on a plan to convert a Russian aircraft carrier for their own use—USS. naval supremacy may be slipping. Publicly, che US, Navy maintain that a Chinese carrier wouldn't the military balance of power in the region, but this years annual Pentagon report on China's military capabilites warns that the country’s modemization campaign could “increase Beiing’s op- tions for military coercion.” Dead Man Gets Passport Since 2007, the U.S, State Department Faas een issuing high-tech “e-passpors, which contain computer chips carry ing biometric data to prevent forgery. Unfortunately, according to a March report from the Government Ac countability Office (GAO), getting tone of these supersecure passports under false pretenses isn’t particularly difficult for anyone with even basic forgery skills A GAO investigator managed to obtain four genuine U.S. passports using fake names and fraudulent documents, In one case, he used the Social Security number of a man who hhad died in 1965. Tn another, he used the Social Security number of a fictitious S-yearold child created for a previous ‘investigation, along with an ID showing that he was $3 years old. The investiga tor then used one ofthe fake passports to buy a plane ticker, obtain a boarding, pass, and malke it through a security checkpoint at a major US. airport. (When presented with the results of che GAO investigation, the State Depast- ‘ment agreed that there was a “majorvulnerability” in the passport issuance process and agreed to study the matter) More than 70 countries have adopted the biometric passports, which officials {describe asa revolution in immigration security. However, the GAO's investiga tion proves chat even the best technol: n't keep a country safe when the racy behind ie fail oO Chechen Murders Go Global ‘The world was shocked in July by the murder of human rights activist Natalya Estemirova in Chechnya, Suspicions immediately focused on the Chechen Kremlin-backed strong- man, Ramzan Kadyrow, a frequent target of Estemirova’s investigations. But Estemirova was just one of several critics of Kadyrov who has been mur dered in recent months, and it appears that living abroad is no protection. In January, Kadyrov’s former bodyguard, Umar Israiloy, was fatally in shot in ONLINE GRADUATE PRO MASTER OF ARTS in International Commerce and Policy ™ Financial crises ™ Global business and policy = Trade negotiations We've been there for 20 years, with alumni working on global issues all over the world. Earn a practical degree to operate effectively at the intersections of global political economy, trade policy, international economics and development. Conveniently located in the metto Washington, D.C. area. To learn more, visit policy.gmu.edu or call 703-993-8099, Na S| Global Leadership Oe eee Te, a concentration in Global Leadership is designed to develop globally-conscious leaders Tee UUs Cone eee ur * Gain a working literacy of global eet eo ty ett * Develop strong Te cal eet Se eee on ing international leadership oe er eet oe eT Se eet DUQUESNE UNIVERSITY Poh www.dug.edu/msgl ¢ 800.283.3853= STORIES YOU MISSED = Austria, where he was seeking asy- lum. Istailov had fed a complaint against Kadyrov in the Furopean Gouet of Haman Rights, accosing hi of abcictions and toreare Ti Mazeh, an exiled former seis tance Fighter named Ali Osayey was murdered in Istanbul, This followed the killings of two other former ‘Chechen rebel commanders in Istan- bol in late 2008, All three murders were cared out with similar ‘weapon, according 0 police ‘Also in March, Slim Yamadayey, who commanded a rebel faction thar ompered with Kadyrovs, was mur- dlered in Dubai. His brother Ruslan, ‘once Kadyroy’s rival for the Chechen presidency, was murdered in Mos- cow in September 2008. Interpol issued warrants for seven Russian citizens in connection with Sali’ murder, inliading Dama represen tarive from Prime Minister Vladimir Patin’s United Ressia pany. “Then ther’ the shadowy con fice within the North Cancasue ‘gion itself, which s anything but frozen, Although Kadyrov's reps sive tactics have largely succeeled in pacifying Chechnya ancl the of Europe ‘+ MAin International Relations + MA in European Public Poicy + MA in Migration Studies + MA in Poltcal Strategy and ‘Communication ‘+ MAin International Development Advanced International Studies at the Capital Now accepting applications for January and September + MA in International Conflict Analysis + MA in Internatonel Polical Economy Kremli issued a showy mission- ed declaration of the end of hostilities there in April, there are increasing fears that th Islamist insurgency is spilling over into the suerounding region, with a wave of ear bombings and assassina- tions in neighboring Ingushetia. The president of that wayward republic was badly wounded in an assassina- ‘on attempt in June, America Joins Uganda's Civil War In January, the New York Times’ Jef- fey Gettieman brake the story that the U.S, military had helped plan and fund a Ugandan military atack Against an infamous rebel group, the Locd’s Resistance Army (LRA), ineaste Congo. The attack was poorly executed, allowing the rebel leaders to escape and murder 900 civilians in retaliation, le was the fst time the United States had directly + LLM in Iniernational Law vith Intemational Relations LLM in Pubic International Law LUM in International Economic Law PRD in Intemational Rettions. PhO in Intemational Contict Analysis PhD in International Law PhO in Migration Studies participated in actions against the ERA, which is designated a ter rorist group by the United States. ‘The LRA’ religious fundamentalist leader, Joseph Kons, has abducted tens of thousands of children to serve as fighters and sex slaves in his Alecades-long guerrilla war against the Ugandan government. "The United States’ new Africa ‘Command (Africom) defended its role inthe mission, saying that the Ugandan attack would have happened anyway and thac it was “too easly to bring a final judg- rment™ about U.S, support. Bur if some members of the US. Congress get their way, Africom’s role in the Conllice may expand. & pending bill corauthored hy Sens. Russ Feingold {D-Wis) and Sam Brownback (R- Kan.) and enjoying wide bipartisan suppore would commit the United States to “eliminating the threat posed by the Lord's Resistance Army through political, economic, mil {rg and intelligence support.” Although few disagree with bring- ing Kony to justice—he has refused to leave his jungle hideout since the International Criminal Court in- nice Pena ots eer eat] heer Brussels Sch of internat Studies KentGIFTING GETS SMART: GLOBAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND IDEAS THE BEST YEAR-ROUND GIET FOR GLOBAL THINKERS § m4 IN EACH \SSUE: Award-Winning Writing Original Ideas Unique Perspectives SPECIAL SAVINGS OFFER PURCHASE MORE SUBSCRIPTIONS FOR ONLY $10 EACH! sn Promo Code AOFPX Call 800-535-6343 and mentic icy.com/ gilts ‘Or visit ForeignPoliKing Baudouin International Development Prize Please help us identify great candidates for the 2010-2011 King Baudouin International Development Prize The King Baudouin Prize rewards the work of individuals or organisations which have made a substantial contribution to the development of countries in the southern hemisphere, The 20102011 Prize, woth 150,000 at will be awarded in the spring of 2011 at t Royal Palace of Brussels. Beyond its 2 financial value Ee dicted him for crimes against human- ity—the bill raises questions about the proper role of Africom, which has thos far functioned in a mostly advi- sory capacity, and commits the United Srates 10 involvement in one of Africa's bloodiest and most complex conflits Some debate is probably warranted. © A ROTC for Spies ‘To cultivate a new generation of spies fora new generation of global threats, the C1A and other USS. intelligence agencies have proposed the creation of 4 program co find and train poten- tial agents from diverse cultural and ‘ethnic backgrounds. Modeled on the military's Reserve Officers’ Training Cosps (ROTC) at U.S. colleges and universities, the program would seck ‘out *first- and second-generation ‘Americans, who already have critical language and cultural knowledge, and prepare them for careers in the intel- Tigence agencies,” according to a de- scription sent ro Congeess by National Incelligence Director Dennis Blt. But unlike ROTC, an official familiar “with the proposal told the Washingront Posts Wale nea tens par pation in the program would be kept scr present tha rm sing en ti ign intelligence services. Universities would apply for grants to create courses and programs to meet the needs of the intelligence community. ‘The US. intelligence community already funds national security studies programs at more than 14 US. colleges and universities, This new progeam would likely be a far more ambitious effort, building on a 2004 pilot project chat provided financial assistance to students sho studied cryptology. Sil five years after the 9/11 Commis- sion recommended thatthe C14 recruit more bilingual operatives, just 13 percent ‘of agency employees speak a second language. C14 Director Leon Panetta has ‘aid he would ike to eventually have ev- ‘ry intelligence analyst be able to do so, ‘The new college program is just one part ofthe formerly was?-dominaced agency's efforts to diversify its work- force, The CTA has also been actively recruiting in Arab-American commani- ties and now offers hiring bonuses of up to $35,000 for recruits who speak mission-critical” languages such as Arabic, Farsi, and Chinese,GLOBAL SECURITY: Careers [That Count IGHTMARE SCENARIO 1: A country with large stocks of nuclear arms is teeter- ing at the edge of stability. Suddenly its government begins to disintegrate, and cor- rupt officials allow the country’s warheads to fall into the hands of a terrorist group. “Nuclear terrorism is our gravest near-term threat,” says Barry M. Blechman, distinguished fellow of the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C-based think tank, phe, he says To help avert eatastro- ‘we need to figure out how to secure ‘muclear weapons and weapons-grade materials in countries such as Pakistan. We also need to gain the intelligence to prevent terrorists or rogue governments from obtaining such weapons. Fur- thermore, we need to devise homeland defense systems that could intercept the weapons in the event of a nuclear terrorist attack. But it could be worse Nightmare scenario 2: Militant fanatics use nan- technology, synthetic biology, or other biotech- nologies to create and transmit a deadly virus, “Biotechnology is in some ways even more dangerous than muclear technology,” says Blechman, because it ean be easier to produce and release an agent to terrorize a popu- c and tech- lation. ‘Therefore, he says, we need the scientit nological knowledge to identify specific viruses, re nize those that might be debilitating, and prevent their creation or dissemination, Longer-term perils: Global warming and future shortag- es of energy and water could eventually become even more devastating than a nuclear or bioterrorist attack. Pursuing Peace (Our current and long-term security threats are exacerbated by tenuous new relationships among the global powers. ‘The world would be in a better position, says Blechman, if the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and India were to achieve more cooperative relationships. The U.S. and China are uncertain partners, for example, and one factor is the competition they face for energy resources. “We need great diplomats, but we also need lots of tech eit nically competent people,” says Blechman, who foresees major expansion of the U.S. Foreign Service to bring in more people with key technical background, ‘The State Department is not the only place with in creasing career opportunities, ‘The Defense Department, government agencies, contractors, international organiza~ and other groups are likely to have growing needs nalysts who understand technical, regional, and other tion: for facets of the world’s emerging security needs. Enter the new global security professionals: people h background in science, language and regional stud~ nce, and other fields, who pursue advanced studies in global security. In response to the rising need for such knowledge, a growing mumber of graduate programs now make it possible to pursue global security studies part time 6 full time, in the United States or abroad. Career Frontier “The world has become more complex, and globalization has become a more entrenched phenomenon,” notes Ariel GLOBAL SECURITY, CAREERS THAT COUNTSV ELUE MOUS Cole at eh EOD aes ty PSE ee ace aia enlightenment comes power... ra lh Ela eo eae OE Wut Omg Elm mene et Mca Le cue ota ata CL Alena OER ether eM ee eNO er Ue Perrott aces ROE terme cy aster of Science egrees end CUES Tm CR ecu Tee cc a ae ay DER TE are oy See end a 5 7 a ere ae ne ee ee ed NN SE ec eres oe eaeRoth, associate program chair of Global Security Studies at Johns Hopkins University Advanced Academic Programs in Washington, D.C. In addition to its certificate program in National Security Studies, the Hopkins program is of- fering a new M.A. in Global Security Studies, with course- work in three related sectors: + Strategic studies, involving military strategy, na- tional security, and weapons of mass destruction. + Economie security, involving banking, finance, and the vulnerability and interdependence of complex global capital markets. ‘+ Energy and environmental security, including im- pacts of climate change. For example, students may examine the effects of agricultural change on grain production, drought, and human migration. Evening classes at the D.C. campus make the Hop- kins program flexible and accessible for working pro- fessionals in the Washington, D.C., area. If you have a bachelor's degree, you can pursue the master’s degree while working full time or looking for a job. If you al- ready have an advanced degree, you may instead opt for a certificate in National Security Studies, which can be completed in only one year. You might even be eligible for tuition reimbursement through an employer such as the U.S. government, a law firm, or a nonprofit or= ganization. Far-Flung Learning Pursuing global security studies abroad can enhanee your cul- tural horizons and career networks. The Australia National University (ANU) Master of International Affairs program offers a Peace and Conflict Studies specialty that brings sta- dents to two different continents in two hemispheres. First you get to spend a semester at Bjorknes College in Norway studying conflict resolution, peace-building and related topies, with faculty from the renowned Internation- al Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO). “Then, you spend a semester studying international rela- tions at ANU’ School of Pacific and As berra, Course options include Asia Pacific Security, Global Environmental Politics, and several others. If you are the lucky recipient of the Oslo Peace Schol- arship, you get a full scholarship covering tuition in both countries and a stipend for living expenses. Only one such n Studies in Can- scholarship is awarded each year, but ANU also awards four scholarships to students working toward the M.A. in Inter- national Relations. Graduates of that program include the Foreign Minister of Indonesia and other global leaders the 21st century ‘students can choose from three concentrations: = strategic studies * Economie Security * Energy and Environmental Security ‘rom the Dupont Circe Metre. Appy one. JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY Learn more and apply onfine at global-security jhu.edu global security studies MASTER OF ARTS IN Anticipate the future —a security degree for ‘The Master of ts in Global Seusty Studies at Johns Hopkins Univers \wasringter, DC Centers aninnovatve progam that allows the amstio.s studetsoftodoyto become the global leader of tomorow oder to Understand te scope of complex threats to security inthe 2st cont, ‘ur stents araiyce itary challenges, the ntieaes of economic interdependence, and prospective changes inte global envronment Johns Hopkins ato offers a certificate National Secunty Studies for profesonals ‘ne want 9 aevance tar ak le wthout pureung fu! degree program ‘loses arein the evering atthe Hopkins Washington, OC Center, ane block Learn More at an Information Session ‘Wednesday, Dace esuers0 pm 1747 Masschusons Avenue NW ishing, DC fed ine M1070 igor crce station ably eres conbeegse ‘sks nagraer trachea HPF.Targeted Studies Fora very useful specialty within the field of global security, you might consider the new Master’ in Nonproliferation and ‘Terrorism Studies at the Monterey Institute of Inter national Studies (MIIS) in Monterey, Calif. [eis the world’s first two-yer yr master’s degree program to focus on both s destruction, nonproliferation studies and weapons of m In addition, MUS currently offers a Certifica proliferation Studies, which students may pursue as part of the school’s M.A. in International Policy Studies or other ein Non degree programs. Both MIIS programs are run by the Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), which is the largest rnmental organization in the United States devor- ed exclusively to research and training to stop the prolifera- tion of weapons of mass destruction. The new master’s prc ram requires language studies and strongly encourages area studies. Thus, it offers what CNS director William Potter says is most frequently miss ing among today wvernment analysts and policymakers: an understanding of the domestic context in which deci- sions are made in a given country. In addition to the traditional skills and knowledge of policymakers a id analysts, Potter says the nex of global security professionals will need increased under- standing of non-state actors, their motivations, and tools to, influence their choices. And since material published on line is less reliable than traditional peer-reviewed journal articles, critical thinking skills are now more essential than ever. But perhaps the biggest evolving need is for policy- makers to understand major changes in biology and the po- tential use of biotechnologies for terrorism, “We are keen to encourage scientists to pursue nonpro- liferation,” ys Patricia Lewis, CNS deputy director and scientist-in-residence. In fact, CNS is one of the few non- profit organizations with a major research focus on bio rorismissues. Although science and technology background is not required for the nonproliferation program, she says it can be a huge advantage, “Eve if you don’t have a lot of science background, UNECE eM cle mcm Om UNCC NaC lid ee ee eT Coenen eT? ee oem e a ene Scene Reena) ee Te een ea ee grec) hina: Glo ey eee See ean aes Seo eae reer rea erence ois Ee The specialisation in Peace and Conflict Institute Oslo (PRIO); students spen ANU College of Asia ft the Pacific +61 2.6125 2167 ectrns (International Relatic jalizing in Peace and one semester studying in gram, a wide curriculum, up to four Hedley one Oslo Peace Scholarship to students Sree On * International Political Econom) See ia * Post-Colonial Pacific and ¢ Seem Cee et nen a een ated a ain. Eis Aner dies is run in partnership with the International Peace Research Te gsia@anu.edu.au_ http://rspas.anu.edu.ahelps to have a scientific way of thinking about these prob- lems,” explains Lewis. She says historians have the same analytical skills as scientists and that other liberal arts dlisci~ plines ean also be helpful Business background can be especially useful, particu- e and regional knowledge. “An MBA plus the MIIS Nonproliferation Certificate is a good combination,” says Lewis. The U.S. Department of Energy, for example, is reportedly interested in hiring MBAs with knowledge of nonproliferation along with Rus- sian, Chinese, or certain other languages. “To study at MIS, you must have proficiency in a second language. Arabic, Korean, Russian, Chinese, and Farsi are in particularly high demand for nonprolif French, German, and Spanish are also useful. “We would like larly when coupled with langua tion studies, but to sce more students with Spanish, because of the threat of terrorism in Latin America,” says Fred Wehling, director of education at CNS. The center also hopes to attract research- ers and students with knowledge of Urdu, ‘Tagalog, Bengali, and other languages from regions where terrorism isa threat. Up to 40 percent of MIIS students come from outside the United States. C1 abroad, who have recently included several mid-career 0 welcomes visiting fellows from ficers from C! ina’ foreign ministry “Throughon-the-job trainingatCNS offices in Monterey and Washington, D.C., students can learn the practicalities Of prospering in an organization. Students also have access to professional-level internships at the United Nations and other international organizations. The articles in this supplement wvere prepared ly Nancy Heenderso «4 Washington, D.C.-based freelance writer, in conjunction with the nuiness department of FOREIGN POLICY, ind did nor ioe cclitrial staf of tic magazine Dircctor of Sales: Amy Russell Advertising Sales Representative: Maria San Jose Design: Houston D. Ruck Copy Editor: Carlotta Ribar (© 2000 Wastin ALL RIGHTS RES ONPOST NEWSWEEK INTERACTIVE, LLC VED Cenecnt) Plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years. Learn to control it in just TWO Apply now to earn your Master re Degree in Nonproliferation and Monterey Institute of International Studies , See aBoston University Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs: CURA 2010 Summer Seminar on World Religions Globalizing Religions: Conflict or Conflict Resolution? The Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs (CURA) at Boston University conducts an annual summer seminar, It is organized by the well-known sociologist of religion Peter L. Berger, co-sponsored with the School af Theology at Boston University, under the guidance of Dean John Berthrong. The seminar is generously funded by the Henry Luce Foundation's Henry R Luce Initiative on Religion and International Afar. The program isan intensive, two-week seminar on special topics in religion and world affairs. The 2010 seminar will run from June 13 to 25. it wll examine the worlds major religious traditions, in each case asking the following ques tions: How has each tradition globalized? How has each contributed to conflict or conflict resolution? The seminar is designed for professional residents of the United States, with some coming from abroad, who are concerned with the international role of religion in politics, economics, and social change. Those particularly encouraged to apply ate journalists, policy analysts (in or out of government), ‘and educators. The program is taught by a combination of faculty from Boston Univesity and other universities, as well as by active or former members ofthe foreign policy community. Details of the 2010 summer seminar will be posted on the CURA Website as the program Is being finalized: www.bu.edu/cura, CURA will provide housing and meals forall participants Travel fellowships wil be avaiable on a competitive basis. ‘To apply, send a one-page letter of interest, along with a brief CV, and an indication whether assistance with travel is required, to: IMs, Laurel Whalen, Administrator Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs YO Lenox Street, Brookline, MA 02446 Fax: 617-353-6408 E-mail cura@buedu ‘Application Deadline: March 31, 2010 ‘an eal opportunity, afinnaie ation inettion, DENVER SEARCH FOR THE DEAN JOSEF KORBEL SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES ‘The University of Denver, a private university located in Derwer, Colorado, seeks nominations and applications for Dean ofthe Josef Korbel ‘Sahoo! of international Studes, In recent years, the Jose! Korbel School has experienced substantial gronth by launching new degree programs, opening and expanding ‘esearch cenlers, establishing two new endowed chal’s, expanding Intemallonal excrange programs, creacing is base of donors, Building and remadeing new facilis and generating a ctoady increase in applications by sludente tothe BA, MA and doctoral proorams. ‘The new Dean wil capitalize on this momentum and lead the Jose! Korbel School to secure its place as one ol the word's premier schools cfinmational sudies, while workng in collaboration wih faculty, staf, and students, as wel as partners across the university and around the world. We seek a leader fora school thal has already distinguished ile nis held, yel has ever-grealer ambilions as an insitiion Inthe service offs students and in pursuit of improving fe human canton glabaly. In agin ots PD. program, he ose Koel School offers six prolessonal MA. degrees in specie areas of study: Global Finance, ‘Trade. and Economic Integration; International Administration; Intemational International Human Rights; International Secu, end Intemational Sucies, Tere als a newly developed M.A boaram Development Pracizg, The Sheol aso suppois. ‘ange of dual-degree programs, ceriicates, and excharige programs. The 8.A. Program in Intemational Sludies offers sludents a wide ‘ray of study abroad opportunies,for-credtinommships, an cua-degree &.A/M.A. opportunities. ‘The successful candidate for this position will be an inspiring leader with an established record of scholarship and professional _achiovernent wna 's passionate about he Jose! Korbel Schools rele in educating he next ganeraton of global leaders. The cancidate will be strongly commited fo italactual and professional excellence and to diversity In the faculy, stat and stugem God), ‘Candidates must submit a cover leer summarizing their interest and qualifications forthe positon, a curent resume, ard the names of six (6) onal references ite and contact information Inquiries, nominations, and applications should be ciected to Julie Filizetti anc fe Mardall at 30081 imuearch com of (419) 655-4917, ‘The University of Derver is an Equal Opportunity Employer and encourages appications from women and minoriy cancidates,Introducing FP’s ICT GLOBAL tes Foreign Policy is proud to present this special report, a unique portrait of 2009's global marketplace of ideas and the thinkers who make them.= TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS 26 Voneson PosseBen Bernanke for staving off a new Great Depression. The Zen-like chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve might not have topped the list solely for turning his superb academic career into a blueprint for action, for single-handedly reinventing the role ofa central bank, or for prevent- ing the collapse of the U.S. economy. But to have done all of these within the span of a few months is certainly one of the greatest intellectual feats of recent years. Not long ago a Princeton Univer- sity professor writing papel ifter paper on the Great Depression. “Helicopter Ben’ spent 2009 dropping hundreds of billions in bailouts seemingly from the skies, vigilantly tracking interest rates, and coordinating with counterparts. across the globe. His key insight? The need for massive, damn-the-torpedoes intervention in financial markets. Win- ning over critics who have since praised his “radical” moves (including Nouriel Roubini, No. 4 on this list), faces an uphill battle in his bid fo manently expanded Fed pov radi rom over. Decsnnen 2009 27GLOBAL THINKERS Barack Obama for reimagining America’s role in the world. PRESIDENT | WASHINGTON Obama entered the White House facing many seemingly intractable obstacles: two bloody, pos- sibly unwinnable wars, an economic meltdown of 1930s-level proportions, and major congres- sional battles on public spending and health care, to name a few. These hard res s have made Obama—a speaker notable for his soaring rheto- ric and symbolic importance as the United States’ first black president— seem at times more like a fix-it guy than a visionary. But . He is an unapologetic wonk with a professorial bearing, a “radical in- crementalist’ (in the useful term of his detractors) who assesses, seeks advice, considers, seeks coun- sel again, and then tinkers. He is also a president with big ideas, particularly in his foreign policy. With his “smart power” mantra, the man who commands the world’s most powerful military has diversified the United States arsenal of foreign- policy tools by listening. He spoke to the Muslim worl ld from », smoothed over a rift with Eu- He ered But if he succeed change in America’s relationship with the world could become a tidal wave. 28Zahra Rahnavard for being the brains behind Irans Green Revolution ‘and the campaign of her husband, opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. POLITICAL SCIENTIST AND REFORMER | IRAN fal the crcl moments inthe Irani presidential election that captured the word's attention this year, one stands out: On June 3, incumbent Mahmoud Armadinejad publicly questoned the credentials of his opponents wo, ‘Wondering na televised debate ther Ph.D. n poltcal sc. ence was lagtimate. Furious, the 6t-year-ld Rahnavard staged a biezing, 80-minute news conference in which she accused the president of ying debasing her sex, and betraying the Islamic Revolution. The attack galvanized the cppostion and rejuvenated the campaign cf her husband, Mir Hossein Mousavi ‘Ahmatiejad should have known bette. During and af- terthe Islamic Revoluton, Rahravard had been an ardent \slamist who worked to discredit seculrfeinst groups But years ltr, when the revolution fled to yield dividends for women, she changed course ard became a diving force behind the nascent feminst maverentin ran After she was placed on the High Counc of Cultura Revol ton, the body issued its st declaration in 1982 advanc ing women's rights. She was ater fred as chanceler of Tehran’ exclusively female Al-Zabra Universit for ining feminist layer and Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi to speak. ‘his year, Ratnavard’s rage at Ahmadinejad drove her huscand’s campaign, She Eegan stumping with him and organizing supporters trough ralles, Facebook, Twit, and text messages. Campaign posers that depicted the couple holding hands subty hinted a the liberal reforms ousevi woud make in ofee; she has more explicitly sale these would invoke greater demcratzation, a stronger role fr women inthe cabinet, and a relaxing of Iran's notoriously ciscriminatory gender las. Docesnnen 2009 29)TOP100 GLOBAL THINKERS Sat cre peer Teter eae corse Coe aS eee mg Coen et cs eee poet een Recent coum Pe i oe Cire cert peer ote sts tan Bi aed ea cea Pea Rajendra Pachaurt {or ending the debate over whether climate change matters. CHAIRMAN, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE | INDIA Asthe link between human activity and dimate change becomes Conventional wisdom and goveriments work urgent to establish a obel clmate treaty, Pachaur deserves no small amount of eredt for creating such an extaorsinary shin pubic oinion. Pachaun, an engineering and economics Ph.D, has since 2002 chaired the UN. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was the oo recipient ofthe Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007, ‘Since then, Pachauri has raised the specter of large-scale popula- tion displacement and the existent threat that global warming poses to lowyingistand nations, whe arguing that large, industalizng ‘countries suchas China and India ill not act onthe issue before the Western world cuts its vm greenhouse gas emissions. He has also Lagcked the adoption of extremely ambitious emissions cuts, recently recommending thal atmospheric carbon dexie concentrations be kept below 350 parts per milion. Any progression thwarting ‘late change this year owes a great deal to Pachaur Ifor redefining philanthropy ce Rey SUM em ort tons Dea) for giving “smart power” a star turn SSE aura Ree aC Det eee ee ce ay Bee a eee Tare paramount—o give tact support the new, young Democratic administration? To Se ee Cee) soled ther status as the global power coupe of al power couples. Eee enc een Cee er er De ae Le) eee ee eas Ce reese tee ae ee eed Se eee tee ced De a Cel Cen ee er a eee Dee eae ee es De et eer ee See er ea ce eee ee rer) States under Obama isa smart power, a patcpantin a ‘new era of engagement Cee eee tes Se eee oer) Development Review she inated promises a thorough, ongoing assessment ofthe eee a ee eee er being the engine of Washington's new diplomacy.TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS Want to know what former President Bill Clinton, Gen, David Petraeus, three Nobel Prize-vinners, best-selling authors such as Thomas Friedman and Fareed Zakaria, and thought leaders from China and Canada to India and Indonesia think about the world’s THE WISDOM OF THE SMART CROWD. most pressing problems? So did we, which is why FOREIGN POLICY surveyed 2009's Top 100 Global Thinkers, asking them to rate everything from U.S. President Barack Obama's frst year in office to which country is the world's most dangerous. Nearly two- thirds participated, offering us unique insight into the collective wisdom of this very special crowd. the tikes who should be shaping the wodld ‘Asked what one person ‘we shout listenin ‘order to make he werd a better lace, our thinkers produced no fener then 34 nominees, ncuding every > Barack Obama hada one fom the Dail Lama tal rl yarin fic, wth 1 Jamas Hanson, Samuel the we’ big thinker at: Hurtngton, Argo Mere lnghmenaverogea Tout and Frain D. Roceovel, of 10 for his peromancs, But when askeo wht > Although daly exact, nad ben is headlines ths year often Inteleculcontroutonto_ foeused onthe bloody fori poley, ou hirkers mayhem in Afghanistan vate hard-pressed ora and kag our global specie ida, sioad thinkers ented news colesivelyeprausing fem Atrca—the good cuales Ikehscpenness’ — (euccastlgrassrocts nd nutiocarworchew velopment) the bad lendeven ele. the (widespread crop fskres), facttrathe sit Geerge and the ragie onest in tr aula SIs TOLDUS: tau Ect bec > Anat 5 pacany Rebel Corot ‘think the worst of the ee all ecessonisowe, serene sin of that he war in Aighanistan! ncn saeenaeese! ay areas most dangerous (79 eee? atcha, Puen Biieiemigeas Penarth power (71 percent), and prefer the BlackBerry (54 > Fal looking ahead 102010, the suvoy four many big thnks The mostinfuental ——_convncehat a major ‘wold leaders outsie he ris with an (2 percent) United States ae Chinese willbe next yoa"'s major President Hu Jinao(oy “global game-changer” largo margin), Russian Oot rodctns for 2010, Prime Minster Vedmir ude possible clase Pai, and Braian ‘oltha Pakistan stl, President Luz hdeo Lula dolar ors or san east daSiva.Butourthinters — bibblebust, cv unestin. reached abschiely no Ching, logical terersm, consensus a allabout and a obal pander, 32 Foreicx Poucy What will be 2010's “unknown unknown" in other words, a global game-changer such as the September 11 terrorist attacks or Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? ah 2% 2% Kno ane, iF “Thea Pree Maou! ad ad has bel er er cree re te POU) aay . er neat ation ero STOTT Meee ine eerie ccd Dee : eer a re Teer Ona scale of Obama's 4 Tto 0 how store 4 would you rate qr U.S. President 28% 0% ° Barack Obama as ‘, aleader after One 9 6 year in — | 4 (tie) 4— pone _ em nate How would you describe What is p ‘hans cortbution to the most sn i) v7 Seiten significant | \ .. underreported poeabae . story of 2009? eo rior ay SEMEN aaancu ay | Irina I =e Fv, eerie ‘Summit | none coATABITON tee" ce Sueseer 1% é eee ee eet eee necave INC Ren eer ae eet ‘ Ree ei ccetr aeeee i erosion to the posi- tion whose catral roots should have been dissteto.” - ee rete ce etd tion of the US. at the i ie co Ciel Les teen? Oe 5 ted year than reer eee een teeta No ietetetereieieten economic system. - CR oo oe det Le Who are the three most influential global leaders outside the United States? B {Oat of 158 roponene) ‘Whats the mast danger- 4 = a, | Saat 6 & we 2B == Viadimir —_ , RAN 10% a “a 5 z Doccsnnen 2009 33,iin TL ye The former president tells Ite ERO OMNI CaCN (cn who to watch, and why there NACE Reece a leaianea nea PAO » Deef you wanted to know how Bill Clinton thought when he was pres- ident, you ignored the scripted set. piece’ Speeches and. instead went to listen to him talk off the cuff at an evening fundraiser. At night, he would ruminate extemporaneously on race, religion, science, and the nature of the human soul. His mind would roam widely and yer pull rogether disparate themes into a coherent narra- tive as no other politician of his genera- tion, Today, the place to hear him think out loud is ac the annual Clinton Global Initiative conference in New York, where he gathers hundreds of heads of state, business moguls, nonprofit executives, academics, and even Hollywood stars not just to talk about the world’s prob- lems but to do something about them. Peter Baker, White House correspondent forthe New York Times, and Susan Glasser, FOREIG POLIY's executive editor, caught up with Clinton there for an expansive conversation abou identity, virtue, and riding the steppes with Genghis Khan, Belo, the edited excerpts icy: Last year we did not expect the economy to callapse ‘ute the way it did. This year we did not think the people of ran would take tothe streets after the election. Looking ahead to 2010, what are the strategic surprises we ought tbe loking fr? Bill Glinlon: We should look around the world and soe if there ace any places where the political analogue of the fi- nancial crisis could occur. That is, what we know about all, systems subject to a combination of stress and dynamism is that there ate fractures and vulnerabilities that are not immediately apparene because people expect tomorzow to be a replica of yesterday and today. [always say, in a high- ly dynamic environment, it’s obvious you should always be working for the best and preparing for the worst. That's easy to say, but how do you do tha And what are the waming signs? For example, could something go wrong in z Nigeria as a result of a combination of [iB economic and political conflict? On the flip side, which other places in the world could still surprise us by do- ing something really smart and good? 1 7 still chink there is some chance the Israelis and the Hamas. government and the Palestinian government could make a deal. Because I think hae the long-term trend lines are bad for both sides that have the capacity to make a deal Right now, Hamas is kind of discredited after the Gaza ‘operation, and yer [the Palestinian Authority] is clearly in- creasing [its] capacity. They are in good shape right now, but if they are not able to deliver sustained economic and political advances, that’s not good for them. The long-term. trends for the Israelis are even more stark, because they Decsnnen 2000 35,= TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS will soon enough not he a majority. Then they will have to decide at that poine whether they will continue to be a ddemoeracy and no longer be a Jewish state, oF continue t0 be a Jewish state and no longer be a democracy. That’ the reat spur. The other thing cha has not been sufficiently appreciated isthe inevitable ate of technological capacity tha applies to rrlitary weaponry, like it docs to RCs and video games and everything else. I know that these rockets drove the Isractis ruts, and T didn’t blame them for being angry and frusrat- cod—it was maddening. But lees be candid They were not very accurate. So its only a question of time until dhey are de facto outfitted with Gr positioning systems. And when that happens and the easualty rates start to really mount, will shat make it more difficult forthe Palestinians to make Peace instead of les? Because they will be even more pressed by the radical groups saying, “No, no, look, look, we are making eight ou of 10 hits. Let's stay at this." I think one of the surprising things that might happen this year [2010] is ‘you might get a substantial agreement. Nobody believes this ‘ill happen, and it probably won’, because of the political complexity of the Israel government. But al | ean tell you is, I spent alot of time when I was president trying to make 2 distnetion between the headlines and the tend lines. If there was ever apace where studying the trend lines would lead you to conelude that sooner is better than later for deal- making, it would be there. FP: Who do yu thinks the smartest, most penetrating thinker you know (maybe other than your um family? re there people who should be on our list? BC: Paul Krugman—T don’ always agree with him, buc he is unfailingly good. David Brooks has been very good. Tom Friedman is our most gifted journalist at actualy Tooking at What is happening in the world and figuring out ts relevance to tomorrow and figuring out a clever way to say it tha sticks in your mind—like “real men raise the gas tax.” You know what I mean? Malcolm Gladwell has become quite important. The Tipping Point was a very good observational book about what happened and how change occuered. But I think his last book, Outliers, is even more important for understand- ing how we all develop and for making the ease that even for people we view as geniuses, life is more of a relay race than one-night stand by a one-man band ora one-woman band. I thought it was a truly exceptional book. Robert Wight, che guy who wrote The Evolution of God, ‘The Moral Arima, and the book he wrote in the midle, which had a huge effect on me as the president, Noncero. This book about God is just basicaly an extension of his argument in Nonzero, whichis essentially tha the word is growing to- gether, not apart. And as you have wider and wider circles of interconnection—that i, wider geographically, encompassing, more people, and wider in bandwidth, encompassing more subject areas you bepin with confict and you end with some resolution, some merping. So he says there is not an inher nee and God, and e explains why. ‘Wirght says, no, no, no, the religious and scientific ean mix in aecommodlation. In Nowzero he argues that ever since people ame out of caves and formed clans, people have been bump- ing up against each othe, requiring expansion of identity, sub- conscious identity. You move from conilic to cooperation in some form or fashion, And so far the strugple between conflict 36 Voneson Posses and cooperation has come out before humanity triggered its capacity for self-destruction. So that whole Nonzero idea has row been translated into his argument on God, and I chink he isa very important guy. Another person T think has written some very interest ing books on the ultimate imperative of cooperation in the human and other species is Mate Ridley. The one that had 4 pretty good influence on me is The Onigins of Virtue. And by vireue he doesn’t mean, I never take a drink, even on Sat- urday night, He means civic virte, How do ‘we treat one another in ways that are constructive, and work together? I think thac ehese are some of the many people. They are chink- ing about how the world works and how it might be ac the same time, At this moment in history, we need people who have a unique understanding of both how the world works and how ie might be better, might be more harmonious FP: The Cold War lasted about 40 years. Do you see tis current struggle ‘we are having with extremism, whatever you want to call, the war on terror, do you see that lating as long or do you see that changing in some way over the net decade? BC: How long it lasts depends on whether the places out ‘of which realy big, effective terrorist groups are operating remain essentially stateless. The territories in Pakistan and the border area with Afghanistan are not part of a central- ized state. Robert Kaplan has written tons of books about what's going on in the modeen world, and if you read The Ends of the Earth and these books that say we are de facto, no matter what the laws say, becoming nations of mega~ cicy-states full of really poor, angry, uneducated, and highly vulnerable people, all over the world, we would have 4 lot ‘of slumdog millionaires. If dhat’s right, then tessor—mean- ing Killing and robbery and coercion by people who do not have state authority and go beyond national borders— could be around for a very long time. On the other hand, terrorism needs both anxiety and opportunity to flourish So one of the things that the United Srares and others ought to be doing is trying to help the nation-state adjust to the realities of the 21st century and then suecee Resolving energy, ironically, could play a major cole in reducing the appeal of terror because if we change the way we produce and consume energy all over the world, it would ereate opportunities for education, for entrepre- neurs, for work, for involving women and girls in posi- tive economic encounters, at every level of national income from the richest states t0 the poorest. Therefore, | think all of the creative energy thinkers need to be brought to bear on this because the world as it integrates has to have 4 source of new cconomic activity. In the poorer places jus gottng agriculture up to speed and puting all the kids in school, thete is enough to keep going for a few years. Bur this energy thing could give s.a decade of exhilarac- ing self-discovery. Really smart energy thinkers, Amory Lovins, Paul Hawken, people who have been doing this for 30 years—what they've always known, before this ever became a serious debate, is, you couldn't sella clean green future unless you could prove it was good economics. You should look at big thinkers on the question of identity Samuel Huntington wrote the famous book The Clash of| Civilizations, But we need an effort to explain and, if pos- sible merge, theories of identity that are biologieal, psycho- logical, social, and political, Because it’s obvious thac in an age of interdependence, you want Wright’ thesis, you wanting the new biography of Gabriel Garcia Marquez, and I just finished Joshua Cooper Ramo's book, which T thought was actually quice good, but T think he should write another fone and think about the practical applications of the strategie insights land the theoretical insights. LINTON an ee NITIATIVE there to be more nonzero subsolutions. You want this thing co happens you hope he is righ thac you can reconcile religion and science; you hope the pre ident’s speech in Cairo turns out to be right, that i's walk in the park to reconcile religious differences. gave a bunch of speeches on this after 9/11, saying that our religious and political differences could be reconciled. Think President Obama's word was that we had to respect doubt. ‘What I always said was that if you are religious it meant by definition these was such a ching. as Truth, capital T. So to make it work in a word fall of dif fences, you had t0 recognize that there was a big dis- tinction berween the existence of Truth, capital T, and the ability of any one human being to understand it completely and co translate it ineo political actions that were 100 percent consistent with it. That's what you had to do; all, you had to do was accepe human frailty. You can’t ell people ‘of faith to be relative about thei faith, They believe there isa truth, But che question of whether they can know it and turn itinto a political program isa very, very different thing, That isan act of arrogance Twas influenced by Ken Wilher's book A Theory of Eve thing, because he tries to point out that throughout history ‘we get connected to people who are diferent from us before ‘our heads get around the implications of that, and then as, soon as they do there is a parallel level of interconnectivity and we have to get our heads around that, All of the public intellectuals in the world need to be thinking quite a bit about this question of identity and need co recognize that in view of the findings of the human genome about the similarities of all ‘of us, even the husband and wife who at the minimum are 99.5 percent the same—i's pretty spooky, isnt it? Pal Lightning round: What are the thee books you've been reading cont? BC: I am reading FLW. Brands’s book on FDR. Tam read- Tfever there was a place where the trend lines would lead you to con- clude that sooner is better than later for deal-making, it’s Israel and Top three leaders that people should pay attention to other than Obama, BC: ‘The prime minister of Australia, Kevin Michael Rudd—be is really smart, Hee has a thirst to know and Figure out how to do things, T think people should study what Paul Kagame did in Rwanda, It is the only country in the world thar has more women than men in Par liament (obviously part of the demo. graphic is from the genocide). Itmay not he perfect, but Rovanda has the greatest capacity of any developing ‘country Ihave seen to accepe outside hlp and make use of it [ts hard to accept help. They've done that. And how in God's name does he get ev ery adult in the country co’ spend fone Saturday every month clean- ing the streets? And what has the psychological impact of that been? ‘The identity impacc? The president says ies not embarrassing, its not menial work, i's a way of express: ing your loyalty to and your pride in your country. How do you change {your attitudes about something thar you think you know whs How did he pull that of TThere are lots of fascinating lead: ers in Latin America worth studying, But I think its woth looking at Colombia. How has Medellin been given lack to the people of Colombia? We all know President Uribe has faced criticism in the U.S. but how did Medellin go from be- ing the drug capital of the world, one of che most dangerous, places on Earth, to the host city of the SOth anniversary of the Inter-American Development Bank? I woul look at that. [would look at another guy, José Ramos-Horea, the pres ident of the frst country in the 21st century, East Timor. Is it too smal to be a nation? Can you get too small? Can your ‘couragcous fight for independence and freedom lead you to an economic unit that is not going to have a population or a ‘geographic base big enough to take care of yout folks? How are the Kosovars going to avoid that? tine. P:Isthere any country you havent been to yet that you want to go to? Be: I want to go to Mongolia and ride a horse across the steppes and pretend T am in Genghis Khan's horde—but Tim not hurting anybody! I want to go to Antarctica. There are places where I have been where I have only been work. ing. I would like co ake Hillary co climb Kilimanjaco, while there is still snow up there Decsnnen 2000 37)‘Sunstein and Thaler describe th ‘an patti” but you probably know them more onomies upside them an eer atthe Obama rfl ath, erdurivored, and valu te presert more then The concept behind libertar- o what's a responsibh {an paternalism nettouet coe fee that's ps- ratket policies that “nude sible to mai tain freedom of choice—that's libertarian. wile also ton. {32 moving people dea tom in directions erly of Chicagosraned {hat make their conomistwhase name has OWN ives a bit Sereecmesakenean: —better—that's ‘Nobel more than a paternalism. Sinsioinies Havar-tanad Wo thinks lanjer ho cet or Thurgood possible fo Merl ends combine two reviled concepts.” ein power are reading: txseait °° tedy advising the British Conservative Party ric pol ‘Sunstein, as the new head ofthe White Ho rules on everything from avian loans. Su 80), ar the only ma vidual to thisDavid Petraeus for reshaping the way the U.S. military goes to war Cae Cece Petraeus isa man of the pen and the sword, an expert Oncor ance Tene eet Cnr eS one Oro eton doctorate-holder, and an avowed intellectual CRO Tsao m ose Re URE Re On acre ces century. As the war in Iraq went disastrously awry. Petracus resurrected the lost military art of counter Sem Se acorn the Pentagon to win control of the war effort, Hay= ing co-authored the new bible Cena rece! Pore amc reccecrt pra amteer aan acco) surge in Iraq, Petraeus has been working methodically to reshape ree erence flicts of the future that look s Tem eee eee past he has studied so carefully eC eee eee the Cold War, the United States followed the Powell Doctrine, dedicated to the idea of striking CON meOCeU es ce Conant caer a tery the Petracus Doctrine, which Peer nom Coenen ees en eT CeTy modern warfare, But Petracus faces a severe test a emcee Omens Rte Tees DCm DOSE ANE Ree em eon CoR neck Tee long war that, no matter how necessary, may not be Seri Peed ea ay te ee ena airs reed ieee tots Bree Dee cut poe ected Geri eerie corr 4 uaa eaten ee ay Cees Portes Zhou Xiaochuan for reminding the word that we cat take the dollar for granted. /ERNOR, PEOPLE'S BANK (OF CHINA | CHINA Chin's politicians rarely miss an opportrity to lecture the United States ons fiscal rece People's Bank ‘bout the saety ofthe $1 tlion in US. jing, has ther, dating a proposal to fundamentally ‘overhaul the entre global financial system, Iva metketshaking speech this Mech, China's chief economist proposed a new foxm of synthetic nterational eserve cu under the management ofthe IM, Ch, he arqued, would afford far greater ‘economic stabi. Despite his measured words, Zhou's icized proposal and his crtiques of U.S, economic planning have been wn fnanctal prescrip Shortly atervard, Russia rele its version of Zhou’ pian, while US. y Geithner prove Zhou's point, Gethner the-cuf response auickly ‘tumbling Reading list: China's Ecanony: 60 Years Wu singlan; The Econom. by Nicholas Stem, Wants to visit: Greeniand Best idea: 6-20 suri, sowty developing thenew architecture of word management Worst idea: Going back othe ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Gadget: Facebook and iPhone.TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS PRU SST Sayyid Imam al-Sharif oo for striking a mortal ideological blow to al Qaeda. foo et Pec eens THEOLOGIAN | PRISONER | EGYPT ear eee eer ra aan Sharif spent decades serving sey asaspiritual compass for pa spiniinal compass fe pera see Pg | those involved in Islamist Peoneree: acseprantcy + terrorism. A former com- Dee ee ry eee eas mander of the terrorist organization al-Jihad and early gyptian Dee eee Sy Ae eae ae Nr ee founder of al Qaeda with his old associ- co ate from Cairo University’s poe ae eee) medical school, Ayman al iets ene Zawahiti, he authored two reer Pare ealec et Ae Biren books that laid the ideologi cal foundation fora global ge ate religious war. But begin- naa and the ning in November 2007, slamist move- Sharif has publicly switched mts fel their hatred and their ry sides. Jailed since 2001, he fapotowe, Ram vale composed Rationalizing Ji- ming America Eaypon Pro ? serene had in Egypt and the World, as become Breer Ld Re) SYP # the shortest eet ci eet acomprehensive revision Rasieteat eet of his previous support for and leadership religious war.’ The work, among he Arabs A ejecta liga Theworks | ais Bat on Ser ees which has spread like wild- aes A Peete eas. Oe et eT ie eee ae erect Peed fire through jihadi circles. you destroy one undermines the legitimacy sfyour enemy's fal Oacdaand like-minded Dlings, and he of al Qaeda and like-minded Yeu pas at groups by using their own your countries? heehee pt napoli theological narrative against What good sit ra fra : an r if you kill one of Se eae hem. An outraged Zawa- mableton them. An outraged Zawa- his people, and Eaeremaieireeer res ererienpemreerranen hiri says harif is promoting he kills 1,000 of prison, caded the reins of al-Jinad tacks in Egypt, and irritated with al the heretical idea of "an yous” Sia 2 en it an SAR fered Islam without jihad.” Inan 38% ironic twist of history,one nao eee of the thinkers who played a central role hostile ini ie in constructing the ideological edifice on of jihad could also play a leading role in rae demolishing it. i 40 voneios PoPoi enc Peedi) Reece no particular epiphany: He cams he Cet ocd eres ry he Ce Cay Pom) Tretia rear ete ee eget pe or ec Oe ee Pee oe es There ea ‘argues al Qaeda has violated. One Sotto Seu ores tole he points out, has buts post itt Pet ens ee) er iced Ceara mcd pana Fernando Henrique Cardoso aaa vdneratle af Queda ees for calling the war on drugs what itis: a disaster Seems FORMER PRESIDENT | BRAZIL eo ee ‘Cardoso has never been afta to ask tough ques: tions. As present of Braz he shook tho country's Cees huge but lethargic market back to life with tough pee rere Prat) ‘iscal policy and pioneering social programs. $0 it revieet lire omer ‘was no surprise this year when, together with fellow aug Latin American ex-presidents César Gaviria and War and Began Another, by Pe Eeuc ea er Emesto Zedillo, Cardoso took on a new challenge: eee a ey aso te omens {ho US-led wa on drugs. "Pronibiioist policies Sify a0 yar: Goon prcoeagee based on eradication, interdiction and criminalzation | UBDI@ilakby Dor eps ‘of consumption simply haven't worked,” they wrote in the Wall Street Journal Cardoso's broadside, laid out Wants to visit: an, where | reverhave been, is fscnat- full in a report Cee COR Ruy me last February, reinvigorated a moribund debate ing from a sociological point acct renee fverthe legalization of rugs. He pushed tore. | NeW (Gsaliionis Hosen nines brand the prob 7 elobal heath, rather | Uidemeraon), oma ple ner “or than mere criminality. And his timing couldn ontofvew (an autcracy with orotic have been better: Barack Obama once called the | tbs) endfomthe pot H drug war antral,” anche seems to prefer | ewe ltl afr sen 4 ‘treating users to locking them up. The man who ‘plays a crucial role in the Middle 2 ed called himself Brazil's “accidental” president may East area have jst done more forhis county and is region | ‘than many of its more deliberate leaders. Gadgets: Twitter and BlackBerry. wen 2009 41TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS BillGates for taking the efficiency of Microsoft to the poorest af the poor. PHILANTHROPIST | SILL AND MELINDA (GATES FOUNDATION | SEATTLE 30° people should have the ‘experence” of malaria, he said. The bugs not catyng the pathogen, but the malaria, danteal die ‘and tuberculss topping the list Now 38 moving into agriculture 2s wel, dng Yat good health requies ‘more than just good medicine. This ithe first fll year that G has ime at his $30 bilion Bil ‘and Melinda Gates Foundation than at Microsoft And th infuence ofa privat sector gu onthe word of global chanity has already proved immeasurable, The undation’s model is becoming the new ce majeure, wit all the efcency of ord sudden injected into ‘ic, Bul more than just using his krack sharp execution, Gates is pushing big 2 the notion that al fons lopment are comected and that cing any one abjctve must come wih equal gains esewhere, Call Gates network theory—and i has the tial to be even more complex, a ‘more infuental, than his tas 13 ee for his full-throated defense of American power. ence aC ca Cee eee oper cee: ee nil aur tm er er See eee Ure ty SUA corr hel etc eer eeu rear icer cee eet) dominant foros in George W. Bushs administration has emerged asthe most forceful ee heed eer eater ae ety Eee en tet out eed mile anay. Cheney's case for “enhanced inlerogatin’ dct ude an ich onthe Pe ethos et re ate eel ‘essential, usted, successful, and te right thing todo." By delivering an unepolo- getic broadside against Obama ata time when many Repubicans were apprehensive of fighting the national secur battles ofthe Bush era, Cheney eslabished himself Eee en ee Wee ee ee ied ue terrorism, there is omroratns a ores Co Prete reer)Larry Summers {or being the brains behind Obama's economic policy. CHIEF WHITE HOUSE EcoNoMICS ADVISOR | WASHINGTON ‘The famously combative Summers is, put simply, one of his generations finest economists, ino the very best. And over the past year he has managed to put his eg0 aside o work with ‘Obama and Timothy Gethner in easing the world out of cri Well before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Summers accused by some of bing an atcitect ofthe bubbe with his advocacy of ight banking regulations and iow ifeest rates — had been warring about mpancing dre macroeconomic trouble, satng wit the housing and ‘nancial markets. His prescience le to his Write House ob a the behind-he scenes aria {orin he midst othe global css. He drove the debate ver the size ofthe stimulus, arguing force for 10-ig bil (wbich ended up 15 percent wen). He has also taken a strong ‘and surprising lead on housing plc, climate change, health-care reform, andthe alomeker ‘bankupices helping talor While House proposals for maximum job creation. By his account, he has helped walk the U.S. economy ‘some substantial cistance back rom the abyss.” Martin Wolf for being the dean of financial columnists (COLUMNIST | FINANCIAL TINES | BRITAIN Wolf has a reputation as the ultimate economic insider: a fixture at the World Econom- ic Forum and the exclusive Bilderberg Group meetings. and a friend and advisor to the likes of Larry Summers (No. 14) and Mohamed EF-Erian (No. 16). Healso has little time for the wrong- headed policies and irrespo sible actions of the financial n-erowd and pens takedowns so incisive as to be surgical. His footnoted, visu- ally aided, and exhaustively researched columns take a witty, didactic tone; in them, he has argued that no gov- emmental recovery plans have done the hard work of regulating and diminishing the influence of the financial sector. ‘Where we are now is intolerable,” Wolf wrote in September. “Today's con- centrations of state-insured private wealth and power must surely go.” Yet Wolf is no doomsday deconstructionist, Without a clear ideological bent (though heis.a committed free-trader), his bias is for policies thar do the job—note the emphasis in f " his book titles Fixing Global ei Finance and Why Global- e ization Works. (i Doccsnnen 2009 43= TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS eee ee aati paar ee Dey Se ee eee ee ane fester een at ats Pico, the Pacific Investment Management Company, which manages a whopping Seo re ee eke nets startin tei emerging markets a the IMF, he went onto head Harvar’s endowment befor jln- [share rai Pee uct ee eter bara be lhsab les U.S. real estate colapse—helped tum Pico into the largest bond fund on Earth, been auasaler ett ELErian—described as obscure by the New York Times just four years ago—is i aie now considered one ofthe word's great economic minds, Rich countries, watch rT ‘ut, though: In his bestselling book, When Markets Code, he says we have eee Renee rar etter cis See Coa ena pre Pesci er « THE LIST CONTINUES, PAGE 49 3Ua octine: “overwhelming force.” This year he put that ee ets Seen et) bili, pat of a synchronized spending spree that Pree ae oo Peay ‘But though governments responded, it fll to cere eee ean ‘diagnoses tend to rum along a single theme: nancial in- Sy onan Cee er at oe eta How the crisis creer iene t rated EME beeper hapvntnriah ko octemeiner eae arta Cea OneNA Pitt enti ater eee en Pee resumen ee ‘BY NOAM SCHEIBER ‘were instead transferring risk to people who didn't poner ena ieneeneenie Pen ee gee vived 2009; the same caitt be said for the ideology of the market. No sur- prise, then, that the big ideas and big TORO MU aoe Ie URC Ie Ames ent bunch than FOREIGN POLICY might have collected before the Great Recession. ee ee parrrenomeereesiveniaensesneerineoiny pase pe ver reer rec arer meneionirny Titian pereenseeser eerie rene etnias a Feeeiripetnnontepiossupne panne oyunu. ie Feriieaprierasntaniitoraeernone eae deat death lw. Tis asthe yar tha the tte made a comeback [ eoaeneena Tener ears eteer aby Peco ieenterebrestreeesesney onniceneris Pi mrpesireceereetepsceeniccneutrean sane Seeemerrenpet mentee neneseer i Psooamapeecisepeaeet revit putin ptayinelty Penn raat ae ener precise eoieree tieereierererontey manent eae oe eae aT enna poeta iene ere ore ee eet re Fry asieeneey lee ta ening vemrnn ee ee ere Pe eesareine eet meer a Moet ened oi Perret Leena ameter peeeeneene reeves aan oarir eey Fone neem iniee emery Seer ronmen prays aie monet nye eran ti pers stenronerr ener snnrrnae piineehirrempresnnervene pivonienainontir ste pectin eaeerereanrots ini iny pee ppeirpeenireere itn Ce ern ne ene aoe Creare cei nanan emencrna While fighting the Asan nancial cia Teasry Deparment ofl Birogr i teeensiesseneopenininee rer saan cee eee ed ‘of Chicago finance professor Raghuram Rajan had Se ee ne et) rar ete eres tad Pert eee eet ee Rn Ce eee ey een erent a bout the quality of the loans than the banks tat originate them. een eceeet er ee tet eerste ee re Cree ite eg ‘The fact that many were too big ofall hada lot to do with it Because Peers ec ont ct ea eset Seen ser ees ‘Which brings us tothe business of preventing future crises. twas a bumper year for ideas on er ee ert rene ters Peer merrnen ere nrt yet el nas Ce ee er) eee eee FS eee ce eer eed eeu ia ele aa etn ee cent ums ‘economist, who insisted that bigness cant be managed. The biger the Se a er eet eee eee Settee ace nae ctl ‘economic progress itsl.n September, Sgt and fellow Nobel aure- Sa ee ee ed ee cen measuring economic output glosses ever the thing we really care about — Sn ae eer ‘ronth takes on the environment and whether growth seven sustainable Tee eee See ee re ee ere ra oy Coton entirety emer Dee eee ete ets wen 2009 45TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS DEAD MEN WALKING Why 2009's truly top thinkers are yesterday's news. By NIALL FERGUSON here is nothing like a really big economic crisis to sion of health insurance likely to be enacted in the United Staces, Hayek's separate the Cassandras from the Panglosses, the horsemen of the apocalypse from the Kool:Aid- swigging optimists. No, the last year has shown that al is not for the best in the best of all possible libertarian fears appear to have receded, at least in the Democratic Party. Ie has bbeen a bumper year, on the other hand, for Hayek's old enemy, John Maynard worlds. On the contrary, we might be doomed. we do well to remember that most public intellectuals are mere dwarves, standing on the shoulders of giants. So. if they had e-mail in the here~ after, which of the great thinkers of the past would be en- titled to send us a message with the subject line: I told you so"? And which would prefer to remain offline? At such times of today’s It has, for example, been a bad year for Adam Smith (1723-1790) and his “invisible hand,” which was sup- posed to steer the global economy onward and upward t0 now heights of opulence through the action of individual choice in unfettered markets. By contrast, it has been a good year for Karl Marx (1818-1883), who always main- tained that the internal contradictions of capitalism, and particularly its tendency to increase the inequality of the distribution of wealth, would lead to crisis and finally col- lapse. A special mention is also duc to early 20th-century Marxist theorist Rudolf Hilferding (1877-1941), whose Das Finanzkapital foresaw the rise of giant “too big to fail” financial institutions. Joining Smich in embarrassed silence, you might chink, is Friedrich von Hayek (1899-1992), who warned back in 1944 thae the welfare state Would lead the West down the “toad to serfdom.” With a government-mandated expan- Niall Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Har seard University the Willan Ziegler profestr of busines dri ‘mation at Harvard Busiess School, and a sonior fellow at Stasyford oaver Institution 46 Keynes (1883-1946), whose 1936 work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money has become the new bible for finance ministers seeking to reduce unemployment by means of fiscal stimuli. His biographer, Robert Skidelsky, bas hailed the “recurn of the master.” Keynes's self-appointed rep: resentative on Earth, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, insists that the application of Keynesian theory, in the form of giant government deficits, has saved the World from a second Great Depression. The markerplace of ideas has not been nearly so kind this year to the lace Milton Friedman (1912-2008), the diminutive doyen of free-market economics. “Inflation,” wrote Friedman in a famous definition, “is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it ‘cannot occur without a more rapid inerease in the quantit ‘of money than in output.” Well, since September of 2008, Ben Bernanke has been printing dollars like mad at the U.S. Federal Reserve, more than doubling the monetary base And inflation? As] write, the headline consumer price inla tion rate is negative 2 percent. Better throw away that old ‘copy of Friedman's Monetary History of the United States, 960 (co-authored with Anna J. Schwartz, who is happily still with us), Invest, instead, in a spanking new edition of The Great Transformation by Karl Polanyi (1886-1964). We surely need Polanyi’s more anthropological approach to econom- ies to explain the excesses of the boom and the hysteria of the bust. For what in classical economics could possiblyE 2 = = 1aaccount for the credulity of investors in Bernard Madoti's Pre eros a eee ea) who gambled his personal fortune and reputation on the very slim chance chat Lehman Brothers, unlike Beas Stearns and Merrill Lynch, could survive the crisis without being ponents The biggest intellectual losers of all, however, must he the pioneers of the theory of efficient markets—economists Pe aa ey ee tn fof Chicago-trained economist who developed the theory of portéolio diversification as the best protection against cco- nomic volatility, and William Sharpe, inventor of the capi tal asset pricing model. In gwo marvelously lucid books, the late Peter Bernstein extolled their “capital ideas.” Now, with so many quantitative hedge funds on the scrap heap, ee ieee ness] ee ee eer er ae Te eer eT SOL aren eat eae asset bubbles as the biggest rhreac to the stability of capita: ism. Not many American econo: Error eet ny Paonia ani) Panerai) eee Ra Geshe STS Sy C0 Pa SUEY ee USSU] fact about Cruel re meee Pera eee eee classical synthesis—Adam_ Smith Pee Ree ane veloped his own math-free * AeA sonia Yer it would surely be wi en ec etme i eee areas Perens eee a oe een eran Cee ae sr en wwe should consider the claims of a historian, because history has ved as a far better guide to the curtent crisis than any economic model. My nominee is the financial historian Charles Kindleberger (1910-2003), who ee eet en eee eee ee ce ie et ee eer ee ee Nc growing concern and ending up with panic. (If those five ees eer ua san once Seer ee es nee OF course, history offers more than just the lesson that financial accidents will happen. One of the most important historical truths is chat the first draft of history—the ver Renn ec ee era Se a eee eS es fically cis crisis seems like a defeat for Smith, Hayek, and Friedman, and a vietory for Marx, Keynes, and Polanyi, ‘that mighe well turn out to be wrong. Far from having heen caused by unregalated free markets, this crisis may have heen cansed by distortions of the market from ill-advised government actions: explicit and implicit guarantees to Bere eae co ee ete a agencies, disastrously loose monetary policy, bad regula: aan acres rea mortgage lending—nor to mention distortions of currency Sees ee eee re ee eee failures was made by Friedman, not Keynes. It was Fried- man who argued that the principal reason for the depth of the Depression was the Fed's failure to avoid an epi- demic of bank failures. Ic has been Friedman, more than ee ee ene eee ey two years, as the Fed chairman has honored a pledge he made shortly before Friedman’s death not to preside over Pre ee Cen ace os ee ee ea etctat eoretee tes ics this. The Fed's balance sheet may have expanded rapidly, but broader measures of money are growing slowly and ee cate eRe emer eee ey er ea ener arty practices, For it cannot possibly be a healthy state of af oe ec ee Te tem to be effectively guaranteed, if not actually owned, by ene ee ee ee! the problems associated with that kind of state interyen- ects Seca ace ative destruction” has been one of this year’s most com ee es Sue ee ae ee See eae eee ers ee ee ee ne eC eens tee ete ates... This process of creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.” This criss has certainly unleashed enough ‘economic destruction in the world (though its creativity at this stage is still hard to discern). But in che world of che big banks, there has been far coo little desteuetion, and about the Seer ee een ees seat Se ee lier The Theory of Economic Development, “cannot do without the ultima ratio [final argument] of the complete destruction of those existences which are itretzievably asso" ciated with the hopelessly unadapred.” Indeed, he saw that the economy remained saddled with too many of “those ‘ms that are unfit to live.” That could serve as a painfully accurate description of the Western financial system today Yer all those allusions 0 evolution and fitness to live serve as a reminder of the dead thinker we should all have spent at least part of 2009 venerating: Charles Darwin cca eee eens Sea eet ee cee oats Pree ee ee ee Da Seon “All organic beings are exposed to severe competition. Sn eee enn eer ern there must in every case be a struggle for existence “Each organic being ... has to struggle for life and to su: fer great destruction... ‘The vigorous, the healthy, and the een ‘Thanks in no small measure to the efforts of his mod- cern heirs, notably Richard Dawkins, we are all Darwinians now-—excepr in the strange parallel worlds of fundamen- talist Chaistianity and state-guaranteed finance ‘Neither Cassandra nor Pangloss, Darwin surely deserves to top any list of modern thinkers, dead or aliveBenedict XVI {for showing that even the supposedly infallible can change. OPE | CATHOLIC CHURCH | VATICAN CITY Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger's election as pope in 2005 was a surprise to everyone. including himself. “God's Rottweiler,” so- called for his purges of liberal reformists, was older than most candidates, bookish, and very conservative, As pope, Benedict has certainly moved the church closer to its form prior to Vatican IT's sweeping modernizations. ‘This traditionalism has garnered excitement in some circles, but it has also sparked controversy, particularly this year when he ed to reinstate excommunicated bishops from the Society Pius X—one of whom was a well-known Holocaust denier. But it hasn't all been anti-Semites and Latin masses. Benedict has also been outspoken about the perils of reckles capitalism in the aftermath of the financial crisis; he has posi- tioned the church prominently and unexpectedly as an ad- vocate for the environment and warned against the perils of climate change. And, despite early stumbles with the Muslim world and anger over what many saw as an attempt to lure disillusioned Anglican conservatives to the church, the pope has worked hard for interfaith dialogue. Richard Dawkins {or his unceasing advocacy on behalf of science. SOCIOBIOLOGIST | OXFORD UNIVERSITY | RITAIN Ifyou believe the human bodys the design ofan omnipotent god rather than result ofthe perfecty imperfect way tving beings reproduce, Dawhins—a rtrd (Oxrd Universi professor who pens cleanly worded but never dumbed.cown exlanations of evalutonery bclogy—has ‘no time for you. “Evolution isafzct, and this book wll demonstrate ithe writes in The Greatest Show on Earth, released this year forthe 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's ith. "No reputable scientist cisputesit and no unbiased reader will close the book doubting i” With sharp prose and lucid thought, Dawkins demenstrates how the cudge’s ‘commonly taken up by the fat to beat fai institutiors—and that could hod back the economy. What it means thatthe big nsttions are safe and they become ike dinosaurs. And i har to compete ‘against them because youre competing against he government Reading list: The Dutch East India Company: Expansion and Decline, by Femme 8. Gaasta The Deutsche Bank: 1870-1995, by Lothar Gall, et al; Macraeconarn- les of Selt-Fuliling Prophecies, by Roger Farmer. Would like to visit India. By some strange confluence of cicumstanc- es, Ihave never been there, Best idea: Taking on as 2102 ofthe ‘government the management fin. ‘entives for CEOs of companies who might have tobe baled out again Worst idea: Puting gid caps on (00 salates as an attempt to contol he worsening inequaty of incomes. Gadget: Oniy BlackBer: Vaclav Havel forfour decades of speaking truth to power FORNER PRESIDENT | (CZECH REPUBLIC He is a prolific author, 2 leader ofthe Val vet Revolution that sparked democratic change in Eastem Europe and inspired ‘nonviolent movements al over the work Czechosiovakia last president, and the Czech Republic's fist. Havel could easly reston his laurels as one ofthe ath century's towering figures, but the ‘a.year-ld wemains froaly engaged in political debates, domestic and foreign, Indeed, he has injacte a rare note o ‘auton ino the wore’ enthusiasm for Obama, joining more than 20 other Eastem European heawyweights to urge the new U.S. president not to forget about the region's young democracies as he ‘tempts to Tese’ relations wit Russia. More recently he eicizec Obama for not ‘meeting with the Dalai Lama, “The ques- tion sf great and fateful compromises or'thave ther preludes, early begin ‘ing, fist undercurrents in such small [eompromises)" Have! warmed Chris Anderson tor bleeding-edge thinking on how the Internet's marketplace of ideas should work. Information wats tobe fee, The avalabily of ree ‘content onine has akeady made the od nas-busness imodel—in which readers pai fr rformaton and advertises paid for ness to those readers—obsolete ‘Sowhatsnext? Inhis new bock, Free: The Future ofa Raciza Price, Anderson argues tha. instead offering it, We need torevl inthe feedom ofFiee. Anderson urges usto embrace 2 new wordin which dg technology Intern 199, BemersLee, ena Computer cenit at x ‘the European paricle piysics labora CERN, founda way to connect wna meskup language that he tad ete, wih tne tee. The fasion of trac wo Iechncoges, ution Borers-Lee infonded 3 8 way for scontss to state inoraton,pedueed ine words fst websies, Twenty yeas I, the Weds used by at asta ‘thot ne wo and Bamere-Leo is ryng prteths caton. He eas re Wotd Wide Wicd Consortium, ich deveons te iematnal standars useon the Web. Hs nen projects ne reuialy—he prince at rere senice provi shoud rot be allowed to cscininate beeen the cont thal uss acess nine. BerersLe ‘coninds fat edo has been the key ingyen spuring the ‘b's rom rd inroaton, “payor tat es ocho he Wo) do wow iat re oce looks very bang be predcts 66 Foneice TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS Niall Ferguson for his intelligent, incessant ‘questioning of dogma. Pastor van UNERSTY ‘mince uss Ferguson has made a career cut of oallnging saced ons, bth within acadeia and he pooular |magiaton. A Financia Times oer and author of he cent Tho Ascent of Money, among ther docks, he has worted thatthe Unto States massive fiscal stimulus plan wl cause an Inexorabie re inlongem ier strates, crusting the hoped for Henry Kissinger concen Hehae 989 5 5 lopie abotne ably of {or hatt-cenury rating the U.S. foreign-policy community Cootpiagueatouee FoRUER SECRETARY OF STATE | NSSER ASSOEATES | NEW RK | eno mess rng he eis bagnin ebanking ect Kissinger. whose very nameis now synony: | te mos heavy equated ao of mous with an explicitly realpolitik foreign ecm Ahead tne policy that focuses on national interests eee rather than idealistic aims, has devoted his ares rtsusin NOW to perfecting the application and expan- | gobsizedecormes of 207 sion of U.S. power. More than 30 years after ‘Moles loess ie io dastoy Icaving office, Kissinger has largely shed his | 9zion. ewe steaty Vietnam-era status as a béte noire of the left oui and emerged as one of Washington's fore- most political counselors, His influence has sometimes been a boon to Obama's agenda, such as when he praised the U.S. president's handling of negotiations with Iran. But he is justas liable to be a thorn in the administra- tion’s side. intervening in the public debate at key moments. Even now, Kissinger’ intelle tual legacy shapes and defines the views of the S. foreign-policy establishment. As another former US. secretary of state, George Shultz, aid, “here's only one Henry Kissinger. They broke the mold after they made him.@ Ue ae STC Baltasar Garzén ee est forpevngtetroddaor OCU R IL issale. SR PS Eee RM “ ‘Since indicting PPLE SY cic = ‘Augusto Pinochet in ti dongbe ax resin tpt London, GGarzéin has aoqureda repuaon as alee crusae the sou ge oF hug afckers, eros, nd comupt goverment ofl. CGaain bles hat ans extend beyond national boundares— rmakrg him her to fe furan rights worl panto pols, ‘and a majorite fe fora |uraprodence that coses bodes ina word ncreasingy wihout them. Ti sping, he announced he was investigating former US. ofl fone ivevament a Bus-era deletion and Introgaton plces. An leibarassed Spanish goverment recommended aginst proseau- ten. Belore long, Garin had found anaberconkovesa ge: abuses commited cing bis cunts euoeaic ers under Franesco Franc, Natfrthe fat time esurecing he past has landed Garin in poltealserk He Isbong sued by a rioting up such verse fires as Kar Marc and Adam Smith (hom heals as an underopreaed ‘nel pilosopes, Sen eames a "Nobo Pie in economics 1888 fortis groundbreaking insight Food scarcity esi il pcre, ‘bad govermens do. Cental to stinking be concept of capitis a at tsa [use dtutin of escuresin a sovely that mates, but the aby oe members to ake fred eens about he woo ase rescues and opus inaders ro tall mem. Acecade tar, Sen remains a prominentpltica vie In September ie parnered wit Jose Sit (No 25) torelease sd ugg governments io lecxpoa onoconomic varies into atsassnens of wal bang, and in October is new took The les of tse topped the bestest inhis nate nda Bes ea That global oles forwantngto dup te gravee grands scone mat (eral a sore cases) of Worst ia: That he present cartes dost ooo ‘igi paler a sia {have i Vetram, Sen ‘for showing how democracy prevents famine. cee | Sen is that-arest ofhytrds—the ony recent Ing eeeramst wh takes glosophy serous.” inthe words of Marha Nussbaum (Wo 88). Tg his cv tom Barbara Ehrenreich for her relentless efforts to understand the root causes of poverty and inequality. SOCIAL COMMENTATOR | KEY WEST, FA ‘Shorty before the 2001 publication of her award-winsng book Nickel and Dime Evenreich was dlagnosed wth breast cancer. The experience Inspired another nonfiction work, this year's Bright Sided her broadside about the myopia of American optimism. Ehrenrvich argues that Amer- cans are plaguod by ther own delusions, whether it's the ide that cancer presents an oppertunity fr saltimprovement that stocks wil always iso, or thet the poor, sic, and social marginalized nea ony to repair thelr ow attitudes. American Pollyannaism “eached amanic zenith in ‘the early years ofthis millennium,” she wrote in Tne. “iraq wauls be a cakewalk! The Dow would each 36 00! Housing prices could never Aocine! Her chronicles of hard ves too of ignored inthe mansteam press—joumeying rom car factories in Dart to empty tras inthe “American heartand-make her the James Age of ur ime ‘Nikharenel he 1994 Mexican aso esi, and he second Plestnian iif of 200. Tis year he peeled back he curiin and ofered some new recess ln The Predtorears Game, For ono, he suggest that he best way corti the Noth Korean ruc tat woul be to provide money and seu guarantees inexetange for Kim Jorg I's sopping te program —but not ‘asking him to dsmante ating aready created Who weld tat agarsthin? Bruce Bueno deMesquita for hitting the bull’s-eye ‘more often than anyone. OUI DENTS | NEW YORK TUNERS SAN FRANOSED Bueno de Mesquite shoul have been a prfessonal gamble, ‘The New York Uriversiy oil stieist has devoted his uguely cate anayical mind io, 95+ sno, reading fea leaves—naugh ina very sophisiated way draw ing onintrvews vit specials ‘and cmp computer model is algostns are utuay desion saczwate—20 pecent comectin his hundreds of stusies forte a, the ageney sys He called in advance, for instance, he sof banian Supame Leader Aatolah Reading ist: Contanine and he ‘Bishops, by HA. Dake; ang, by Hai: Tho Biegance ofthe Plegotog by Ns Bacay. Wantsta vist Tanzania Best dea Stang the eomomy and keeping riers les iow wl hip speed up economic reeoen. Warstdea: Global warming can ‘ony ba coracied tyoush gba, (riers agement Gadget Titer andPhone. Doccsneen 2009 67.TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS uerantr fis pecl'seoonomic ‘and potcal wee. ns region, that no srl hig Reafing st Palestinian Was, by Rafe Sheradeh; Tho Wor Hat Salam Fayyad eraptotogen | Zekeeteatns sca abe | atti ae naonsLnuTmonsy [wes ean | Wastifex: Trt keeping Gaza Under sige S worn, We is boss toting and pesos talks stagratng, Fayyad ras ‘emerged a he bas! nope for ‘permanent selierent between Israel andthe Plesinans. Fayyed, whoholdsa Ph. economies, oso prominence asthe t's representative in th Plsinan tose, where he subsequently became france minster June 2007, he was promoted bane mister aly ‘ving hen tre aureiy to rot ot cupton and ambarkoninsti- eri efos, eve a akg the Plstnan Autos’ nctorouly ‘opaque annual budget publ Nowe scaling fo he wean of Palestinian state wihin wo years—egardessef the progress of peace tals With the West Bank's eccnomy projected to gom erent in 2008, Feyad is bu ing repute as an efecto teletin wring change win Pa the site te prmarymsion et A Gongeng. aga inktnkha conden 2005, sa protect bro we nose caans aretha head ented Buthoogh his an nope sles tera as eed rutile aces inte ste mnedaheondhinsal one wong sie ofan ieeasny risbstl Chines aint ton is er Indu Gogg was sul own for alge ox inegdartes, ard Xu wes rested Sd detaned Fallow daeste ard iterator ory eves "ase Ags though te ‘rains under uno XuZhiyong fo riving the debate in China about citizens’ rights. Xs, nthe words he New Yorks Evan Osos, 28 se as Chis gato puble-rtrst icon “helega scholar and achisthas emerged as eral champion of ‘ik ight nt about every gral scandal orca years, flrng pro bono adi to Vitis of poe bry. tated rik predicts, pd exajtcial detentonReteing Xu storg eating ist Bohs Saeed Antelegy, istry of Chinese phissophy; be Quran. Wants vist Terzaria Gadget Twtor Mario Vargas Llosa for challenging th fiction of socialist utopia. One of Latin America’s most beloved literary treasures, Peruvian novelist Vargas Llosa has transitioned seamlessly into the public realm, where he is an outspoken advocate of democ- racy and civil liberties in the region. “The socia ism of the 21st century manifests in monstrous corruption of the s present in Ven- eayela—where all forms of communication are closed or threatened, economically blackmailed such that no one speaks the truth, and no one criticizes those in power.” he has said. At home. Vargas Llosa has also pushed for reform, advo- ting, for example, a museum to commemorate the vietims of Peru's brutal Shining Path guerrillas. Nor is he slacking in the literary department: This year he was nominated for the Man Booker International Prize.pee ee Soe eee Michael lenatiett es ere Peete corn for showing that not all academics are irrelevant. ey LUBERAL PRRTY LEADER | CANADA sla lle reer 7 ee Poised to become Canadian prime CT eC ann — eo * ee Bp ing Harvard University's Carr on er e Sner: Cente for Haran Rights Poky, tt a ee gate is out o prove the relevance thecal eee of academia—and big ideas—in — — ee a pales. gratis wrting onthe meer pirsriaieing heer sometime necessy of olenes..cereon, seerey,decep- cara ect ton, even violation of rights to fight terorism has made him Sere erent nea a singular voice among Ceradian liberals. His 204 bock, arineeliien mere nya The Lesser Evade the case that targeted violence was necessary to prevent the possiby of fling victim to seater violence, bu stressed that democratic states should rebate not employ torture or be mativated by national pride or revenge. In2006 he was elected to Canada's House of Commons ann 2008 became leader ofthe Liberal Party. AS Cree 2 pola, he's renewed his party's fecus on human rights, Cr er the warn Afghaistan, and more recently glbal climate a ae change, which he defies in charactesticallyutitarian ea eee) {ashion as “reditruting risk othe poorest and most valerable people inthe worl.” rns te crcelisse ofthe day. th Moscow and Bejing feng @ he soba muscles ad ne The Kagan family democracies var, Fukwyarals Francis Fukuyama thesis might seem in out, bute salad be cose esa cy (Donald, Robert, Froderick, and Kimberly) for shaping the forcreaingatoreign-poicy conan thal danocatesysts awdgntattacéanel | sotoss vale: wo debate over ray and ghana. almost vo decades Newsweek. Thi yes, Fukuyama foie Pave comMeNTATOR | AL UNVERSIE WASANGION Pos ‘ampanent fined ndeoolec sate fatre ol AMERAN ENTESPMISE METTUTE, NSTAUME FOR Te STUDY OF WA | irer—argung, against convertor wiston that itmay be possi for [ Tee relsone et ere Fort Kapri i a Pav Doras ee ie = arom ‘owards @ genuine rule-oHlaw historian specializing in ancient Greece and one of the leading lights of the : omen errno dlowngle: | neworsenebre mover Hs on Reet ond Feder dad i Tretroarasicy | emttuedsiongdeval hence, | trae ralyngsuppt tbe ase thes thewa spond ; onbearety ‘set ons el ned scl dre tg rar a nly split into two ‘heir ales in George W. Bush's administration (Frederick as a scholar at f SE rise toseoms, | aitalisLan Legion ad ered teh amen xs hs, ott aroun! he i cassonaayageawih"Tahd | Thea Fengomaionsy kas, | Wasting Pas) Tre wen ny Freer eK ho ; Ct an ose Fant aptn Seco set ed athe Ssy oops ot persed ogee Fa amaze b on Sump. | fn ar bd Te Suey ye Kare foros somnalnerccanecut 29 | Mo vist Er navetvom beneses note arson dose Ket ed faven bbw Dade Rating he eth. | Gan Srey yas stp sented arg ‘conclusion—that liberal democracy: ‘care system, Frederick, she has called repeatedly for a fully resourced counterinsur- ‘ it spa Verna: htavrectorpet | geeyefot Rabot meamnde we fas n Bees andi peape i edges asthe drat we inom fury al areas Fon a td Eveprs § saragm ofthe ts century— ‘Gadget: Facebook and Phone. {rom Venus." holds abig pice view of inlsatonal afar thatjstias Doccsnnen 2009 69)TOP 100 GLOBAL THINKERS ‘assertive U.S. nteventen broad Hi atts! book, The Rtum of History andthe End of Drea, calls fr he eeaton ofa eague cf democracies" to promote palt- calibeaizaton and human ghts otal, ROBERT HAGA: eating ist: The Wear Tian yaar Fredber Over Here, ‘Dav Kennedy, Brean Feat of he Wor by Jor on Cooper, Wants o vst nda, st the grat, yawmig gapin my raves over the past 0 yaar. Best dea: Gan, Mecinytacaun- tennsurgney plan for Aignanston West idea: The Osama aii 'statons new policy toned Chea staage reassurance” Gadget: find Two tho ost ‘osu development nan absur 2a love my Pons he best onmuncaons daca ee" sven C. Raja Mohan for his forceful advocacy of India’s rise to great-power slatus TECHNOLOGIE AVERT SINGAPORE With nao he vrge of achion Ingitspoentl asa regional ‘owe, Manan son oft leading theorists pushing the wots largest democracy to abandons Irdtonl aloofness and seek fl integration wih te West stong U.S-tiaparneship, Mohan ‘gs inhi influential columes fort Indian Expros and The Hind, wil esi dain ts costrund aomanie se-—and ave the Unted States analy in Asia thal cou provide va assistance In fatng the rise rac am ‘and checking China’ rising power. onan praised George W. Bus's ‘adrnnsvatin fr is ourezch fo dia, but uges he United Sates to hus its power move ‘cart and eae tat canal Fay God ty esoling ever single poblem athe word” James Hansen for his pioneering research ‘and advocacy on climate change. ovRecton | ns c000480 Scientia endo view hob as simply unovering the facs— ‘doing someting about them she [pb ofpolicans and acs, But afar 2 decades of presenting his haitaisng rings abou the teat of ising sea levels and meting glace in congressional hearings, cen oonfrences, ‘and academe poner, Hansen has come tobeteve hat fects dont | publ These days, he dvds is seal or temsehes. When a ‘ime betwen GIS are ant-coal new ush-ra poly dreted him | protets across the county. to deal ith reporters ony trough | Earl this year, pe hope unch cermmuncatons sa Haneen— | he 350 mission," a campaign whe developed one ofthe fret | popularize the view at ne est compar modesto pradcithe |. taget fer atmosonencaroon impact of sing CO, feels onthe | coront is 90 pats per mi- Earhistemperture—broke ranks | Hon—nuc lower thn prevcusy andtook is conroversil stony | thought {or bringing scientific rigor to climate-change skepticism. PHYSICIST | INSTTUTE FoR ADVANCED STUDY | PRINCETON, Ks Dyson physicist famous as much fr his advocacy against nuclear ‘weaponry as forbs biliance on quantum electrodynamics dropped is own bom in 208. na lecture at Boston Univers, the actoge- aia Institut for Advanced Study scholar sid hat all the fuss ‘shout global warming f grossly exaggerated” Since then, Dyson has provided extensive commentary expanding on his Goubts about cate change against te vivo ercism and even disdain his views have occasioned. Dyson is convinced that the James Hansen of the world right nave the science wong—and that von if thay do haveitright climate change might not be so bad. He argues that humanity and the arth wil beable to handle increased greenhouse gases and that iting people in developing counties from poverty Is more important than capping emissions, Like any good scientist, Dyson acts he could be mistaken, But noone is questioning the courage of his convictions, Esther Dyson for accurately forecasting how the Internet will shape us. Dyson deere ert as “catyst—an atte othe peer dom everouing,eerinovatne rae Pighech gu (she ad her ath, No.6 arth nly paren-chil par on FP it), i She started outa a opr ter oud her nm ae a business, rally became an angelinvesto, = seeding funds fo everyting rom Eastern European philanthropy to cvian space travel. 181904 Wired magazine essay, she pescienty ‘there thatthe easy replication an estrbtion of digital content meatthatcomanies would inate ive taway frre and make money off ther merchandise and service. Today, sho predicts that advartisers wl tor content to individual users She als predicts tht peopl wil Increasingly view the sola system rather han ‘the planet, as thelr home with companies seeking cutrevenue and materials throughout i Wantsto vist aa‘for advancing the technology of eternal ite FUTURIST | NORTH ANDO, MASS. By 2045, the diferences between men and machines wil be negligible, or so Kurzweil, believes. Humans wil beck up ‘thelr memories and sil sets on hard crives, tothe extent that ‘they become vitally immortal ‘whl rots wil be endowed With conseiousness—a turning point e eters to as "the Sin gulatity” Botore he comentod his fame asa leading—and sometimes wacky—futurist, Kurewol worked on ait Inteligence, including inventing the frst text-to-speech software. Recently, Kurewel has turned his attention to how sofware and medica technology could help people extend and ame- orate their ives. “The future Fs going tobe avery oxiting place, and thats why the to stick around to se it” he says eatin ist ne Hurts Yors oft Gard Gada larwar, Comets, Meno: Pana tbe Bah By ‘VS: Ramaenantan and Sora, Boles Warsi China Best des es eping fc iw, cnory eomabges specah, sSarlgen ate he 1000 ies more sung an we need tree ac ee) ns) Worst da: That we ae ring taalimcucet se hate plenty fee, ate, aa Space oes we tan apy reg. inglecrotgestovartem Pr vate ch wb smn Cada: Tutte an Blakey Jamais Cascio ‘for being our moral guide to the future. Fumunst | insrmure ror enaes "Axo euEfoleTeosNeLOGES | ‘Cmate changes ming. and _everginoerngte prospect of _atialy mnpulng he war's diate—may ser The an easy ‘sve uti ft testong ‘and eticaly complex, pug a iealy eat nating power inthe ands of fe sys Casco nis raw took, Hackng te Eh, r= most sue ana so far on he ‘subject This yar, Cascio, guru fal tings onthe zon and founder ol tb wodste Open be Fue, agate to stenghen he | gis night aceeunt fo 20 parce mt or hisotspokeness and ofthe county’ sex imbalance. caren facing ion 21 charges | Her application oft ecriquas| {acing sao) ends goos | of uhavinwal ecmonicsto fe fenfitherthan most adres: | odes stuations distinguishes The cntnent ne argues, needs to | her fom aherheadine-ring felinowertoleamnardlessonses | economics he eae. Paul Kennedy {or looking ahead tothe decline ofthe American empire. Kennedy itrally wote the book on imperial deine. His classic, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, chars the couse of the great European empires, describing the patter of economic expansion, territorial conquest, and imperil overstretch to which countries ‘tom Spain to Britain fl vietim. Now, Kennedy has trained hs eights ‘on the United States, which, he says, s nearing the end ofits own imperial dominance. “Our dependency upon foreign investors wll approximate more and more the state of international indebtedness we historians associate with te reigns of Philip Wof Spain and Louls XW of France—attractive propositions a first, then steal losing lamour” he wrote this year, adding, "Uncle Sam may have to come down a peg or two."Thought Herkpeunrsntmrmeiontenety pirievispbaieenentienionesnn dy LL eran ereTesN ote Meurer preerner eree as | BL eerie 2020 EDITION evar earer ee et eer well be just as brilliant as the ones on this list, but they're likely to come to our notice in very different ways, Take cucu esate POOAVE TR ae ere pies anew generation of global leaders. A few years ago, he came upon an illustration of a windmill in PNR ea eee et tee Oe es ey understood and built one for his family so thei house could have electricity. Soon he was think- Tee em cere tea en oe distribution as ready-made kits Twonty years ago, Kamkwamba's story might have stayed local. But ee men ren ern) Pareto ra ete eae eee eed ee te toe Se ere recs Cece ke ety TED fellow) o pickup the story. In 2007, Kamkwamba spoke ata TED con- ee re ey eee eer eh rng reer ne Crees ere a ee ad story suggests just how dramaticaly the Internet ea has transformed eT te eet leaming to get smart and heard atthe same time—and how much those changes are forthe beter. ee os pee een ee ee ee ee ee eee eee et eae however, the very prospect of ving in an “intellectual metropolis" has Dee ee ee eens Poe eee rer) Pe er eee ee ad Seer ne ee) ‘Skjolden, Norway, or ina hut nxt to Walden Pond: eet ee) et ee en) ae eer ore) CO ete a ae ee Sree rine a ent eee ters ee erty eee a ee ere Pomerat Dee cs video lectures of his oversubscribed course on et ores ea ee er ee ag See eee eens ee ee ee eet the Teaching Company. Judging by the comments on the filesharing sits, OE een ee ere eee te te oe ‘of transmission at thee fingrtns. Getting your piece on the oped page Se een ent Se ee ce eT Se deere ‘Beast, wing a Web column for a newspaper, or pening an occasional ee eae cet eee orem ee ero ee enter otcd Sea eer ae Pe een ee ent ee ey legions of Tunes fans around the worlds just one eee Cor eee eet) Pee ees , eet et tha Cee rene Poorer coos ie Pei en orything fromthe classi to wind construc- 7 eet ee ey rr a er See ee etek ere ere een ee ey ‘much more firmly embedded in ther own locale, without the inferiority CO tna ca eae De aa eet Se Ee ee ad Ce eee ees ‘out on the op-ed pages of the Financial Times or the lounges of Davos, Se er re ey SO ee ena oes eee ee cae ‘on climate change would no longer be dominated by a Danish economist Gum ee Gea eee Se ee a res Derren ene Cross ee a eee eee ere es160 COUNTRIES. 8 EDITIONS. 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Os x Da Pc 7 Mat, 900 Sr se Pid Ren ig Dea S07 iis at ru Are Ne eps Ec Ding Pac 12 ths 840 Seg su Fish Noes Fig, 5257. al: ag pis Dig Puig 12 Nos 100, Sepsis reste, 3571) Pt eae Co lsat sa ing Prag 2M, 52% See ia bed Nese Fle ate 316% In Mistsmenlptiatos Rbestor dts sxtentl wet mle pene oa titel ses 17 cy tl oat oil Bien end col nesta sears bo make aftr i om eros att oat ested or Be maybe ses cman fees odin src ses pai) Amat ne Cen Dic Di. Sg, 7B touts HowerContinued from page 80 Laden's terrorist musings to go from Arabic to Eng- lish on, for that matter, o find nearly instant transla- tions from such non-English types on the list as Sayyid Imam al-Sharif (No. 10), the former jihadist whose renunciation of violence has outraged the bin Ladens of the world. So, if it’s not language, then what factors murture a country’s production of thinkers whose ideas influ- ‘ence decisions beyond their borders or the world talks about an important power and population size would seem to matter. Yet Japan, with the world’s Missing Links| into a deep rut in the early 1990s, the intellectual fad for Japanese ideas faded along with it. Instead, the world turned its attention to other Asian economic miracles: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Ko- rea, and Taiwan. Thinkers who argued that the econom- ic suevess of these countries was rooted in their “Asian values” became very popular. Then came the Asian f- nancial crisis of the late 1990s. Crony capitalism, lack ‘of accountability, corruption, and authoritarianism were singled out a5 major causes of the erisis, and the global appeal of the so-called Asian values and the thinkers extolling them waned. second-largest economy and more than mG — Today, the Asian countries that com- 127 million people, is absent from 10's mand the world’s attention are, of list of top thinkers. And ours 8 far "The global course, China and India, Yer, though the from the only list on which Japan is two giant countries are not missing from not represented: Consider that only 16 Marketplace rs list, che number of Chinese and In- Japanese have won a Nobel Prize since prioritizes fan thinkers who had an international its inception in 1901, while the United States boasts 320 laureates (even Aus- tria, with a population 15 times smaller than Japan’s, has had 20 Nobel win- ners, four more than Japan). ‘The case of Japan points to the fact that culture matters more in determin- those think- ers who come from either very success- ful or very impact in 2009 is surely lower than what their countries’ sizes and global impor- tance would justify. In contrast, thinkers from Arab and Muslim countries have a comparatively larger presence than Chi- nese and Indians. Why? Thinkers who help us understand the threats we face ing a country’s ability to produce world- “ are as much in demand as those who ex- Cliseshnkersthanisconomiemaheor threatening plain a country’s success. Neither India population size. The individuals whose COUNtries. nor China is seen as a dangerous global arguments capture international atten- tion challenge and even disrespect reign- ing ideas. But Japanese culture and its ‘educational system do not encourage dissent and intel- lectual confrontation. Moreover, disruptive intellectual leaders are often highly individualistic, a trait not honed in societies where the community's collective well-being more important than the rights of any single person. Bur even “culture” fails to fully explain why Japan is missing. Afterall, a couple of decades ago Japanese thinkers had wide international appeals wich the Japa- nese postwar economy roaring, Japanese management theories and ideas on governing were all the rage in the 1980s, Books such as William Ouchi’s Theory Z: How American Business Can Meet the Japanese Challenge and Kenichi Ohmae’s The Mind of the Strategist: The Art of Japanese Business became major international best-sellers (though both Japanese popularizers were actually associated with American institutions—Ouchi was a Stanford University professor and Ohmae a con- sultant at MeKinsey). In retrospect, i's clear that the appetite for these ideas and the celebrity of the thinkers who disseminated them had more to do with Japan’s widely touted “economic miracle” at the time than with its ability to permanently supply ideas the world is eager to consume, Once the Japanese economy sank actor today, but radical Islamist funda rentalismn, jihadistinspired terrorist at- tacks, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Middle East's always perilous situation have inevitably fueled che world’s interest inthe culture, his- tory, and nature of Islam and the countries where it is the dominant religion. A.generation ago, dissidents from inside the Soviet Union such as Andrei Sakharov and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn drew an enormous global following for their ideas on how to resist the totaarian state. Today, Russian thinkers are absent from our list. That the Russians are missing may’ reflect the world’s ambivalence about post Soviet Rus- sia, Ifthe global marketplace of ideas erly does prioritize those thinkers who come from cither very successful or very threatening countries, then the international disinter- est in what Russian thinkers have to say is likely because Russia is neither perceived as a miracle economy nor a slobal cheat, Sadly i also true that while the demand for Russian chinkers may be weak, the supply is also fa from booming, These days Rusia is simply not a major pro- ducer ofthe kind of ideas the world wants to heat, There are no modern Sakharovs or Solzhenitsyn. If thete were, ‘we'd put them on the list. HI Moisés Naim is editor in chief of FortiGn Powey Dretunen 2009 79)THE MISSING Where have all the Sakharovs gone? By Moisés Naim MERE ARE THE Jaranese? Why are there no Russians? Who else ing from FOREIGN Pouicy’s list of the top 100 global thinkers? Look at the countries whose best minds are unrepresented on this lst of those who've most shaped the conversation in 2009—a year of worldwide eco- and dangerous wars—and it’s clear: Understanding who's not on the list is as revealing about today’s global marketplace of ideas as debat- ing who's on it. Pethaps i's a simple matter of bias. After all, the United States and Britain are clearly overrep- resented, so maybe the explanation is just that the list is tilted in favor of those who communicate in English. But in today’s world, when an idea at tracts attention, it becomes available in English re- gardless of the language in which it was originally presented, Satellite 1¥, the Internet, and other modern co accelerated the process by which local ideas reach a global audience. 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