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1.
2.
3.
4.
II
2000
III
3000
IV
4000
1900
(100)
3100
100
3500
(500)
As can be seen cash flows in Year I & III is more than expected but cash flow in
Year II & IV is lower than expected. Why cash flows are different from as projected?
Because of various uncertainties, these uncertainties can either be favourable or
unfavorable, only the unfavourable variance in cash flow is known as risk.
Few points need to be understood in this regard:
Risk is not bad.
Risk cannot be completely eliminated
Risk needs to be managed.
Higher the risk, higher the return and thus higher is the capital.
First to understand that risk is not bad. Risk also returns in higher reward and often
results in better and unique methods to do a business. Secondly risk cannot be
completely eliminated while doing a business, risk will always be there, it is for a firm
to decide its goal and risk appetite. Why risk needs to be managed? Reckless risk
taking can result into losses which cannot be afforded and business has to shut
down.
How
risk
and
capital
are
related?
Capital
represents that amount of fund in the business which is necessary to start and grow
the business and which is assumed to be in the business as long as the business is
run. Capital is necessary to absorb losses. If a business involves high risk, losses
could be high and thus capital needed would be high to cover those losses.
Basic Risk Management Framework:
As already explained earlier, risk cannot be eliminated altogether and thus it has to
be managed based upon the risk appetite of the firm. For this there must be a risk
management framework, the basic spirit of which is common to all organizations.
From now, onwards we will study risk management framework with respect to banks.
A risk management framework basically involves the following 6 steps:
1. Organization for risk management:
2. Risk Identification
CAIIB- Bank Financial Management- Vaibhav Awasthi-7600273309- Yuva Upanishad
Surat
Page 1
3.
4.
5.
6.
Risk measurement
Risk pricing
Risk Monitoring and control
Risk Mitigation.
1.Organization for Risk Management:
It must consist of
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
comes in favor of Bank and Court directs the other party to pay some amount as
compensation to Bank then that will result as asset. Off valance sheet exposures
may convert into exposure of banking book or trading book depending upon the
nature of off balance sheet exposure.
Before we go any further and understand various risks faced by Bank, we need to
understand certain concepts which are related with valuation of assets and liabilities.
1. Mark to Market: Mark to market simply means that assets and liabilities should be
shown at their market value. Mark to market relates to trading book in banks. Why?
Banks hold government securities, bonds, stocks their prices changes daily,
Suppose a Bank holds a government bond valued at Rs 1000 on 01.01.2014, on
01.02.2014 it is valued at Rs 1200, now this Rs 200 is profit and must be recognized
as profit and bond must now be shown in books at Rs 1200.This procedure of
showing the securities at their market price is known as mark to market.
There are 6 types of investments hold by a bank (i) Government Securities (ii) Other
Approved Securities (iii) Shares (iv) Debentures and Bonds (v) Investments in
Subsidiaries/Joint Ventures (vi) Other Investments.
Now these securities can be held under three methods:
(a) Held Till Maturity (HTM): These comprise investments the Bank intends to hold till
maturity. Investments included in this category are carried at their acquisition cost.
(b) Held for Trading(HFT) :Investments acquired with the intention to trade within 90
days from the date of purchase are classified under this head.The individual scrip in
the category will be marked to market at quarterly or at more frequent intervals.
(c) Available for Sale (AFS) Investments which are not classified either as HTM or
HFT are classified as AFS. They are marked to market at monthly intervals.
Assets and liabilities in banking books are hold till maturity and thus always appear
at acquisition cost. For example Bank purchases computers for bank for Rs 1 crore.
These computers will appear at Rs 1 crore in the books of the company.
Risk in Banking
1.
Liquidity Risk: It arises because long term assets (loans) are financed by
short term liabilities (deposits). For eg a Bank has Rs 1 crore FD for 3 years. Now
Bank gives Rs 1 crore loan for 5 years. After 3 years bank has to repay this FD
amount but loan will be repaid only after 5 years, so how will bank pay back this
amount to depositor? This is known as liquidity risk.
They are of 3 types
(i)
Funding risk: Now suppose in the above example bank has given loan for 3
years only, but depositor withdraws the FD after 1 year then how to fund this is
known as funding risk
(ii)
Time risk: If loan repayment is not regular,ie cash inflows are not regular it is
known as time risk.
(iii) Call risk: If off balance sheet exposures or contingent liabilities crystalize it is
known as call risk. Lets say bank has issued bank guarantee of Rs 1 lakh on behalf
of its customer. Guarantee is issued after obtaining a specific margin for a fee. Now
if the guarantee is invoked by the beneficiary bank will have to make payment of Rs
1 lakh, but how to have money for this Rs 1 lakh, this is known as call risk.
2.
Interest rate risk : If interest rates changes, banks income will change which
will affect profit, this is known as interest rate risk. They can be classified into
following 6 categories
(i)
Gap or mismatch risk: It arises because of difference in time, amount, etc of
assets and liabilities
(ii)
Basis risk. Suppose repo rate rate is reduced by 1 % now this will mean that
loan rates need to be reduced by lets say 0.5 % but banks may not be able to
reduce deposit rate by 0.5 %. This is called basis risk that same reduction or
increase in interest rate will affect price of deposits and advances differently.
(iii)
Yield curve risk: This is seen in case of investments in government securities,
bonds etc. They are of varying maturity period. For example 91 days T Bills, 182
days T bill, 364 days T Bill, prices of these securities change when interest rate
change, but same percentage change will not change prices of securities in similar
degree. For example, a 1 % increase in interest rate will cause prices of t bills to fall,
but the fall amount will be different for all the maturities. This is called yield curve
risk.
(iv)
Embedded option risk: Risk that embedded options may be used. For
example, a FD can be withdrawn before time.
(v)
Reinvestment risk: Let say Bank has taken FD of Rs 3 lakh at 10 % for 3 and
gives loan of Rs 3 lakh at 12 % for 3 years. Thus bank earns 2 % profit. But this
loan is repaid 1 lakh every year, here arises the problem the amount of Rs 1 lakh
which is repaid must again be re invested at 12 % if bank wants to maintain 2% profit
ratio.
(vi)
Net interest position risk: If bank has more advances then paying liabilities
(deposits) then reduction in interest rate would means net interest income of bank
decreases.
3.
Market Risk: Also known as price risk is, reduction in the value of securities
due to adverse price movement. For example bank hold share of Rs 100, and price
of the share falls to Rs 90, this is market or price risk.
4.
Credit Risk: The risk that counterparty will default on payment, due to refusal
or inability. It can be (a) Counter party risk or (b) country risk
5.
Operational Risk:Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate
or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. Strategic
risk and reputation risk are not a part of operational risk It includes Fraud risk.
Communication risk. Competence risk. Model risk, Cultural risk, External events risk.
Legal risk, Regulatory risk, Compliance risk. System risk and so on.
Transaction Risk= is the risk arising from fraud, both internal and external,
failed business processes and the inability to maintain business continuity and
manage information.
What does this risk weight mean? Understand this, suppose a bank ABC Ltd in India
which has capital(Tier I + Tier II) of Rs 40 lakh and has given loans of Rs 100 lakh
to Government of India (GOI), Rs 200 lakh to State Bank of India and Rs 300 lakh to
Reliance company. What would be risk weighted assets (RWA) of ABC ltd ?
Exposure to
Amount
Risk weight
RWA
GOI
100
0
0
SBI
200
20
40
Reliance
300
100
300
Thus as we see from above example, RWA of Banks are 340, So CRAR of the bank
would be
Total Capital Funds
(RWA for Credit Risk)
=
40/340= 11.76 %. This was how initially CRAR was calculated with only capital
for credit risk being considered.
(i)
(ii)
1996 Amendment to include market risk.In 1996 amendments were made to 1988
basel accord and market risk was also recognized and methods to measure it were
prescribed. Salient features are given as below:
Banks to identify a trading book and hold capital for market risk under trading book
and organization wide foreign exchange exposures.
Capital charge to be measured based on 10-day 95 percent VaR metric. Market
requirements were equal to the greater of either the previous days VaR, or the
average VaR over the previous 6 days multiplied by 3.
Basel- II Accord- Need and Goals
Basel I accord understood the importance of viability and robust systems for
supervision of Banking Industry on a global basis and focused on maintaining
regulatory capital to absorb any business losses or shocks. However credit risk
assessment under Basel I was not risk sensitive enough.
How? There were fixed risk weight buckets; if exposure was to a corporate it
attracted uniform risk weight of 100%. For example Company A which is very strong
and has good fundamentals will also be given 100% risk weight and a Company B
which doesnt have very good net worth or business fundamentals will also be given
100 % risk weight.
[
4.
Perpetual non-cumulative preference shares (PNCPS), which meet the
regulatory requirements advised by RBI for the purpose subject to a limit such that
total of IPDIs and PNCPS doesnt exceed 40% of Tier I capital at any point of time.
Tier II Capital:
1.
Revaluation reserves at a discount of 55 %
2.
General provision on standard assets, floating provisions, provisions held for
country exposure, investment reserve accounts and excess provision subject to a
maximum of 1.25% of total RWA
3.
Upper Tier II capital which includes PNCPs, redeemable non-cumulative
preference shares (RNCPS) and redeemable cumulative preference shares (RCPS)
issued in accordance with the regulatory guidelines for the purpose.
4.
Subordinated dents issued and computed in accordance with the regulatory
guidelines for the purpose.
5.
IPDI and PNCPS held in the books in excess of prescribed limit and not
included for computing Tier I capital
The Tier II capital cannot be more than Tier I capital
250 cr, , Revaluation reserve of Rs 100 cr, Perpetual non cumulativeprefence shares
(PNCPS) of Rs 50 cr and subordinated debts of Rs 200 cr. Calculate Tier I and Tier
II capital of Bank of Indians and total capital fund of the Bank.
Tier I capital of the Bank = Paid up capital + Reserves+PNCPS
= 500 + 250+ 50 = 800 cr
Tier II Capital =
Revaluation reserves at the discount of 55% +
Subordinated Debt
=
45* + 200 = 245 cr
*(Remember 55% of discount means, only 45% of revaluation reserve will be
considered)
Total Capital of Bank
= 800+245 = 1145 cr
Case 2.Lena Bank has paid up capital of800 crore and Free reserves of Rs 500 cr.
Bank during the yea sold one of its building recording profit of Rs 50 cr which were
capitalized. Bank also had general provision and contingency reserves of Rs 400 cr.
RWA for credit and operational risk for Bank were 7000 cr and RWA for market risk
was 2000 cr. Subordinate debt stood at 250 cr. Calculate Tier I, II and total capital of
Bank.
Tier I = Paid up capital+ Free reserve + capital reserve arising out of sale proceeds
of assets
= 800 + 500 + 50 = 1350 cr
(B) Risk identification: All products and transactions should be analyzed for risks
associated with them.
(C) Risk Measurement :Its based on (a) sensitivity (b) downside potential
a) Sensitivity: sensitivity captures change in market price due to unit movement of
a single market parameter. These parameters can be supply demand position,
interest rate, market liquidity, inflation, exchange rate etc. This measure suffers from
demerit that it doesnt take into consideration the combined effect of various
parameters. Sensitivity generally measures the change in the value of security due
to movement of interest rate and is generally measured by (i) basis point value (ii)
Duration
(i) Basis point value: This is the change in value of security due to 1 basis point
(0.01%) change in market yield.
Illustration 1. Federal Bank made investment in Govt. Securities worth Rs 4 crore.
Maturity period of bond is 5 years and face value is Rs 100 and coupon rate is 10.
Bond has market yield of 1 2 % and price of bond is 90. Now market yield increases
to 12.05 and price of bond changes to 89.50. Calculate (i) basis point value of
bond(ii) what will be change in the value of investment
(i) When yield changes by 0.05(5 basis point) % ie from 12 to 12.05 price changes
by 0.50 ie from 90 to 89.50 so basis point value of bond ie change in price for 1
basis point is is
= 0.50* 0.01 = 0. 10%
0.05
(ii) change in value of investment: Change per Rs 100 is 0.10 so change for Rs 4
crore will be will Rs 40,000
(ii) Duration :Duration (also known as Macaulay Duration) of a bond is a measure of
the time taken to recover the initial investment in present value terms. In simplest
form, duration refers to the payback period of a bond to break even, i.e., the time
taken for a bond to repay its own purchase price. Duration is expressed in number
of years.
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This is a free preview material for BFM Subject of CAIIB. Our experienced faulty has
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Bank Financial Management- CAIIB
Advanced Bank Management- CAIIB
Legal & Regulatory aspects of Banking-JAIIB
Principles & Practices of Banking- JAIIB
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enable the students even of non-commerce background to grasp all the points in an
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