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Cost Benefit Decision Model
Cost Benefit Decision Model
AND
This paper describes a general cost-benefit decision model that is applicable to the evaluation,
comparison, and selection of alternative products with a multiplicity of features, such as complex
computer systems. The application of this model is explained and illustrated using the selection of
data management systems as an example.
The model has the following features: (1) it is mathematically based on an extended continuous
logic and a theory of complex criteria; (2) the decision-making procedure is very general yet systematic,
well-structured, and quantitative; (3) the technique is based on a comprehensive cost analysis and an
elaborate analysis of benefits expressed in terms of the decision makers preferences. The decision
methodology, when applied to the problem of selecting a data management system, takes into
consideration the life cycle of a DMS and the objectives and goals for the new systems under
evaluation. It allows the cost and preference analyses to be carried out separately using two different
models. The model for preference analysis makes use of comprehensive performance (or preference)
parameters and allows what we call a logic scoring of preferences using continuous values between
zero and one, to express the degree with which candidate systems satisfy stated requirements. It
aggregates preference parameters based on their relative weights and logical relationships to compute
a global performance (preference) score for each system. The cost model incorporates an aggregation
of costs which may be estimated over different time horizons and discounted at appropriate discount
rates. A procedure to establish an overall ranking of alternative systems based on their global
preference scores and global costs is also discussed.
Categories and Subject Descriptors: H.2.7 [Database
K.6.3 [Management
of Computing
and Information
Management]:
Database Administration;
Systems]: Software Management
This research was supported by the National Bureau of Standards under contract NBSOSBCA0449.
Authors current addresses: S. Y. W. Su, S. B. Navathe, and R. Elnicki, Database Systems Research
and Development Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; J. Dujmovic, Department of
Electrical Engineering, University of Belgrade, Bulevar Revolucije 73, 11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia;
D. S. Batory, Department of Computer Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
78712.
Permission to copy without fee all or part of this material is granted provided that the copies are not
made or distributed for direct commercial advantage, the ACM copyright notice and the title of the
publication and its data appear, and notice is given that copying is by permission of the Association
for Computing Machinery. To copy otherwise, or to republish, requires a fee and/or specific
permission.
0 1987 ACM 0362-5915/87/0900-0472 $01.50
ACM Transactionson DatabaseSystems,Vol.
473
1. INTRODUCTION
1987.
474
S. Y. W. Su et al.
TO THE LSP
In this section a general model of the system life cycle of a DMS is presented,
and the role of a cost-benefit decision model in the life cycle is discussed. The
logical scoring of preference (LSP) method for decision making is outlined.
2.1 System Life Cycle
Basic components of the system life cycle are shown in Figure 1. An operational
DMS is constantly being evaluated by its users. The result of an evaluation
directly reflects the global level of satisfaction of the user community. Since this
result is usually derived from various system performance indicators, it is called
the global performance of the system.
Changes to the system are not made as long as its global performance is
considered satisfactory. Once the global performance falls below satisfactory, the
need for improving the existing system is identified. This need often motivates
an organization to enter an analysis phase in which a set of new goals or objectives
for its future applications is defined. Some examples of possible goals are (1) the
organization would provide its employees with an interactive accessto databases,
(2) the average response time of a typical transaction will be less than 3 seconds,
(3) the new DMS should provide data processing services to ten additional
customers, and so on.
Besides identifying goals for the improved system, a strategic assessment would
generally be conducted to determine if the estimated resource requirements for
carrying out a change to the existing system is in line with the overall organizations objectives and resource constraints. If it is, a decision is made to change
the existing system. At this stage, the organization faces a number of alternatives
to set up the improved system. The organization may carry out software development or hardware modification to modify and upgrade its existing system. It
may develop or purchase a new DMS or contract its data management task to a
service bureau. If a new system is to be developed or purchased, the organization
needs to decide what type of DMS would be desirable: a file management system,
a report writer, a full-scale DBMS, or others. A cost-benefit analysis of these
alternative approaches or systems needs to be conducted to determine the best
alternative. The method described below is used to aid such decision making.
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
475
Existing System
4
Decision to Chance
/
Existing
System
I
I,
/
Improved
System
----
--v
L1.1
LSP
:thod
unuysis
vIode1
{Criterion)
L-uw
f
il
+
Ranking of Competitive Systems Sl, . . . , SN
Decision
(Selection of the Best Alternative)
Transition from the Existing System
to the Improved System
Improved System
in Operation
Fig.
1.
An outline of the system life cycle and the LSP decision method.
ACM Transactions
1987.
476
S. Y. W. Su et al.
1987.
477
478
S. Y. W. Su et
al.
Figure 2 shows the top two levels of a comprehensive SRP tree reported on in
[Xl. The structure and contents of an SRP tree may vary, depending on different
decision situations. The decision methodology presented in this paper can be
applied to any SRP tree defined by an organization.
The main purpose of decomposition is to make the computation of cost and
the assignment of preference score to a requirement node simpler and more
accurate. For example, it is difficult to determine the cost of an operation for a
system without breaking it down into more detailed items such as the hiring of
a programmer, the purchasing of supplies, and so on. On the other hand, it is
easier for a decision maker to determine the salary of a new programmer, which
is a cost node in the subtree of an operation. Similarly, to assign a preference
score to DMS software is a difficult task. But it is much easier for a decision
maker to say whether he or she is satisfied with a DMS that does not have
COBOL as a host language (host language support is a node in the subtree for
DMS software). As requirements become more and more specific with further
decomposition, the computation of costs becomes more accurate and the assignment of preference scores becomes more specific, easy to define, and, as much as
possible, objective.
Although the methods for assigning costs and preferences are considered in
subsequent sections, we note here that a single feature of a DMS can help satisfy
many needs. A facility to handle special data types, for example, may contribute
to better performance as well as simplifying the development of programs for
customized applications. However, it is also possible for a feature to satisfy one
need while making it difficult to satisfy others. For example, user-oriented
features such as better language interfaces/graphic support, typically may increase the processing load on a system and result in worse response times, greater
storage requirements, and so on. The so-called preference parameters inherently
have some built-in trade-offs, which make the selection process a nontrivial task
in the first place. Moreover, most of the time, adding one feature implies that
one has less money to spend on other features. For example, report writers may
not be included in a basic DBMS/FMS package and may need to be purchased
separately. A purchase might satisfy data processing requirements but at the
same time increase the cost of the system.
While we claim that an SRP tree can be used to model all of the above
situations, the choice of the nodes, their relative placements, and so on are
certainly subject to human judgment.
An SRP tree derived using the above criteria and guidelines has leaf nodes
that represent (1) cost parameters to which only cost values can be assigned by
the decision maker, (2) preference parameters to which only preference scores
can be assigned, and (3) cost and preference parameters that have both cost
values and preference scores. The nonleaf nodes will have cost and/or preference
values by aggregating the values of their descendants. The nodes of an SRP tree
can be labeled by codes (e.g., R for requirement, P for preference, and C for cost)
as illustrated in Figure 2. These character codes facilitate the splitting of an SRP
tree into a cost tree and a preference tree containing cost and preference
parameters, respectively. These two trees are used for the subsequent cost and
preference analyses using two different models. We present the preference
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
System
Requirement
and
Parameter Tree
3 RPC DMSsoftware
[ 34 iRPC ~~~~
Data organization and access
w
op
4 RPC Conversion
6 RC Operations
ii
E;iazF
w
Fig. 2. An SRP tree (first two levels). RPC: a requirement node with a preference score and cost value; RC: a requirement node with a
cost value; n: node number expressed as a trace from the root.
480
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
analysis first in steps 2, 3, and 4 (Sections 3.2 to 3.4) and the cost analysis in
step 5 (Section 3.5).
3.2 Step 2. Formulation of Elementary Criteria
The first step of preference analysis is the formulation of elementary criteria for
the preference parameters (X1, X2, . . . , X,) that are the leaf nodes of the
preference tree. An elementary criterion is a mapping of the values that can be
assigned to a preference parameter to real numbers in the range of zero to one.
The assignment of a value VXi of parameter Xi of preference score Ei means that
Ei expresses the decision makers degree of satisfaction with parameter Xi having
value VXi. Stated another way, the elementary preference Ei is the degree of
truth in the statement that asserts the value that VXi completely fulfills the
requirement of performance parameter Xi. The values of the preference parameters (not their preference scores) are provided by the vendor of the DMS under
consideration.
Consider the Vendor-Service preference parameter. Suppose that half-day,
daytime-only, and 24-hour service are the values that could be assigned to VendorService. The decision maker can express the degree of satisfaction for such
service by assigning a preference score ranging from 0 percent to 100 percent to
each value. Scores that might be assigned are shown in Figure 3(a). In this figure
a vendor who provides 24-hour service is rated as 100 percent satisfactory by the
decision maker. Daytime-only service is rated at 30 percent, and half-day is
completely unsatisfactory (0 percent).
Vendor-Service is an example of a parameter whose value set can be enumerated. A parameter whose value set is not enumerable is Average-Response-Time.
Suppose t is the average response time of some specified DMS process. An
elementary criterion for Average-Response-Time might be the function El(t) in
Figure 3(b). Criterion El states that a decision maker is completely satisfied (i.e.,
El(t) = 1) if the response time is less than or equal to &in. An average response
time greater than or equal to tmm is considered completely unsatisfactory (i.e.,
El(t) = 0). If t is between t&in and t,,, the requirement is partially fulfilled and
a linear interpolation is used for calculating the partial degree of fulfillment.
The elementary criterion El utilizes an absolute scale (tmin, tmlu) by which
individual response times are mapped to preference scores. Alternatively, a
relative scale could be used. Let ti be the average response time measured for
system i and let TMIN be the minimum value of ti for the m system (i = l..m)
that are being evaluated. An Average-Response-Time elementary criterion could
be the function E2(t) shown in Figure 3(c). Criterion E2 states that a decision
maker is completely satisfied (i.e., E2(t) = 1) if the response time is the best that
is achieved by all candidate systems. Other response times partially satisfy the
criterion, and if t 2 lz:TMIN then E2(t) = 0 (we assume k > 1, and most
frequently we use 2 < k < 4). So E2 assigns high scores to response times that
are close to TMIN, and low scores to those that are not.
In general, there are many ways of formulating elementary criteria. The
preferred methods are those that are simple and evident, such as the above
examples that rely on absolute and relative rankings, and the enumeration of
value sets. Although a detailed classification of elementary criteria has been
ACM Transactions
1987.
24-hour service
daytime-only
I
0 .l
VS(r) =
1 Preference score
0
.3
1
if
if
if
481
x = half-day
x = daytime-only
x = 24-hour service
(4
Preference
1
El@) =
F
M1- Lin
i 0
if
t 5 ttin
if
td I t 5 t,..
if
t Z t,,
LiIl
0.4
Preference
n(t)
I
TMIN
k*TMIN
(4
Fig. 3. Elementary criteria. (a) An elementary criterion for Vendor-Service. (b) An elementary
criterion for Average-Response-Tie. (c) Another elementary criterion for Average-Response Time.
No. 3, September
1987.
482
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
mink, 4
1
wIleI + de2
kP . WY
weI + wzez
wlef + w&m
maxh 4
--m
Minimum
-1
Harmonic mean
0
1
2
+a,
Geometric mean
Arithmetic mean
Square mean
Maximum
(1)
1987.
483
functions other than conjunction or disjunction are chosen so that the above
situations can be distinguished.
Five basic GCD functions have been identified and are given special names.
These are the conjunction (C), medium quasiconjunction (CA), arithmetic mean
(A), medium quasidisjunction (DA), and disjunction (D). Four intermediate
functions that interpolate between each of these aggregate functions are strong
quasiconjunction (C+), weak quasiconjunction (C-), weak quasidisjunction (D-),
and strong quasidisjunction (D+). Table II ranks these functions, going from
total disjunction to total conjunction.
On a practical note, GCD functions using the weighted power mean parameter
r 5 0 are said to be mandatory. That is, if any input preference is zero, the
aggregate preference will be zero. This is not a characteristic of nonmandatory
functions.
The value of r that is assigned to a particular GCD function in Table II is
computed in the following way. We can define a quantity 0 5 c 5 1, called the
conjunction degree, which indicates the degree of conjunctivity of an aggregate
function. c = 0 corresponds to pure disjunction and c = 1 is pure conjunction.
To relate values of c to r, the average value of the weighted power mean is used:
(3)
1987.
Table II.
Generalized Conjunction-Disjunction
Functions [ 191
Value of r
Mandatory
requirement
Name of
operation
Symbol of
operation
Conjunctive
degree (c)
n=2
n=3
n=4
n=5
No
Disjunction
Strong QD
Medium QD
Weak QD
Arithmetic mean
Weak QC
Medium QC
Strong QC
Conjunction
D
D+
DA
DA
CCA
C+
C
0.000
0.125
0.250
0.375
0.500
0.625
0.750
0.875
1.000
+CQ
9.52
3.93
2.02
1.00
.26
-.72
-3.51
-Ca
+m
11.09
4.45
2.19
1.00
.20
-.73
-3.11
-co
+a
12.28
4.82
2.30
1.00
.17
-.71
-2.18
-co
+oO
13.16
5.09
2.38
1.00
.16
-.67
-2.61
-co
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
485
e2
n input
preferences
E bgpregab
preference)
em-l
e.
where
jl wi = 1
_,..k,.,&-.
E (aggregate preference)
Fig. 5. A partial absorption function diagram.
ence scores by a small value. (Note that such an influence cannot always be
achieved solely by using a GCD function and by assigning small weights to
optional parameters. In cases where r 5 0 it is possible, for example, that an
optional preference score of zero may drive an aggregated preference to zero even
though essential DMS features are scored highly.) The partial absorption function
aggregates two preferences: a primary (e,) and a secondary (e,). When the primary
preference score goes to zero, the output (E) goes to zero no matter how high the
secondary preference score is. It outputs a preference score that is on the average
within the range (eP - 6-, e, + a+). The values of 6- and 6+ have a direct
relationship with weights assigned to this function (see an example below). They
indicate the range of influence of the secondary preference variable (e,) on the
output (E).
A partial absorption function can be realized by cascading the two GCD
functions A and CA as illustrated in Figure 5. Note that unlike individual GCD
functions, where weights must accompany elementary preferences, the specification of (a-, 6+) determines the weights to be used. Table III lists (-a-, 6+) pairs
as a function of weights w1 and w2 of the partial absorption function shown in
Figure 5. Figure 6 shows that a partial absorption function with 6- = .14 and
a+ = .08 is equivalent to the assignment of 0.7 and 0.6 to w1 and w2 of the
function, respectively.
It should be emphasized that the mandatory requirements and partial absorption functions are fundamental concepts indispensable for the realization of
quantitative models for evaluation and selection of general complex systems.
Consequently, proper preference logic functions must support these concepts,
and similarly, these concepts can be used for testing the suitability of a preference
r The choice of CA as the secondary GCD function of Figure 5 is not the only choice. Others such as
C-, C, and C could also be used; each would have its own table similar to Table III (see [21]) to
show the relationship between (-a-, 6+) and weights.
ACM Transactionson DatabaseSystems,Vol. 12,
No. 3, September
1987.
486
S. Y. W. Su et al.
Table III.
WI
w2 = 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1
-88.8
64.0
-87.2
49.4
-85.3
38.7
-82.8
30.3
-79.4
23.3
-74.8
17.4
-68.1
12.2
-57.4
7.7
-38.9
3.6
0.2
-77.9
57.8
-75.5
45.0
-72.5
35.5
-68.8
27.9
-64.2
21.6
-58.2
16.1
-50.4
11.4
-39.6
7.2
-24.0
3.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
-67.4
51.5
-64.4
40.4
-60.9
32.1
-56.7
25.4
-51.7
19.7
-45.7
14.8
-38.2
10.5
-28.7
6.6
-16.4
3.1
-57.2
45.0
-53.9
35.7
-50.3
28.5
-46.1
22.6
-41.3
17.7
-35.7
13.3
-29.0
9.5
-21.2
6.0
-11.7
2.9
-47.1
38.2
-44.0
30.6
-40.5
24.7
-36.6
19.7
-32.3
15.5
-27.4
11.7
-21.8
8.4
-15.6
5.3
-8.3
2.5
-37.3
31.3
-34.5
25.4
-31.4
20.6
-28.0
16.6
-24.3
13.1
-20.3
10.0
-16.0
7.1
-11.2
4.6
-5.9
2.2
-27.7
24.0
-25.3
19.8
-22.8
16.3
-20.1
13.2
-17.3
10.5
-14.3
8.0
-11.0
5.8
-7.6
3.7
-3.9
1.8
-18.3
16.5
-16.6
13.8
-14.8
11.5
-12.9
9.4
-11.0
7.6
-8.9
5.8
-6.8
4.2
-4.6
2.7
-2.4
1.3
-9.1
8.5
-8.1
7.3
-7.2
6.2
-6.2
5.1
-5.2
4.2
-4.2
3.3
-3.2
2.4
-2.1
1.6
-1.1
0.8
logic function for use in system evaluation models. For example, using the
quasidisjunction
(or) and negation (not (e) := 1 - e), it is possible to define
quasiconjunction
(and) from De Morgans law:
el and e2 and . . . and e, := 1 - [(l - el) or (1 - e2) or - . - or (1 - e,)].
However, it is easy to see that such a form of quasiconjunction,
which is used in
extended Boolean information
retrieval [52], cannot support either the concept
of mandatory requirements or the realization of partial absorption functions, and
accordingly it is not suitable for system evaluation models.
In the following section we provide guidelines for the selection of appropriate
GCD functions for aggregating preferences. Although the actual choice of a GCD
function is completely subjective, a question arises as to why there are so many
functions to choose from. An intuitive justification
can be given by means of a
familiar example. University instructors assign letter grades to indicate student
performance. Normally, one of five grades are given (A . . . E). However, a more
refined set of eight different grades might also be used (A, B+, B, C+, . . . , D,
E). In both examples, well-defined criteria are used to distinguish between grades.
ACM Transactionson DatabaseSystems,Vol. 12,No.
3, September
1987.
487
1987.
488
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
r 3411 Variable length records
1987.
I
I
I
I
I
I
Essential parameter
)
Essential parameter
(84
.
Essential parameter
Desirable
and
Optional parameter
(W
bma~
preference
rating for
t
1 Optional preference rating
Optional parameter
I
Optional parameter
..-
__-_ ._ -
. ._ --
- -
- --
._
-._
---
490
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
Hierarchical records
Duplicate keys
Null values
Fig. 9. Desired and optional category aggregation structures.
491
Desired category
rating
(104
80
Aggregate
rating
1987.
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
Variable length
records
Desired
Repeating groups
Hierarchical records
Optional
i
Essential
RECORD
IMPLEMENTATION
{ limitations
11 (a)
File
implementation
Relationship
implementation
Desired
Index
1 implementation
Optional
Essential
(
DMS size
IMPLEMENTATION
REQUIREMENTS
-i
11 OJ)
Desired
RECORD
IMPLEMENTATION
35
IMPLEMENTATION
REQUIREMENTS
39
. DATA ORGANIZATION
and ACCESS
Other
1 operations
Fig. 11. An aggregation structure for database organization and access. Note: Preference ratings for
elementary criteria are in lowercase letters, ratings for subtrees are in uppercase.
function exponents, and elementary preferences) that have the strongest influence on global ratings, and hence whose values should be chosen with care, and
to provide a meaningful interpretation of aggregate preference scores. In the
following paragraphs we outline three tests (or trial experiments) which we
have found useful to help understand the preference ratings of candidate systems.
These tests are not exhaustive but are representative of the types of analyses
which can be undertaken.
ACM Treneections
1987.
Input Preference
Criteria
493
DMS-A
0.1
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.8
1.0
1.0
DMS-B
0.2
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.9
DMS-C
0.9
0.1
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.6
Our tests use the Data Organization and Access aggregation structure of
Figure 11 and the elementary preferences for three different systems, whose
values are listed in Table IV. Note that DMS-A and DMS-B have preference
ratings that are quite similar, while those for DMS-A and DMS-C are rather
different. This is reflected in their respective global preference scores of 85, 84,
and 68 percent, which were obtained by a straightforward evaluation of the
aggregation structure of Figure 11.
3.4.1 Test 1. Variation of GCD Functions. A first test is to examine the effects
of using different GCD functions to aggregate optional, desirable, and essential
preferences while keeping elementary preferences and aggregation structure
weights constant. The functions that are used in Figures 8 and 11 are A, C-, and
CA. Different sets of functions can be obtained by shifting the conjunctivity of
each aggregation function up (i.e., C- to CA to C) or down (i.e., C- to A to D-)
along the spectrum of GCD functions of Table II. Yet another way would begin
with a different initial set, such as (DA, A, CA), which has a wider GCD spread
and is thus less conjunctive. The same shifting operations could then be applied.
Figure 12(a) shows the changes in Data Organization and Access ratings as
the conjunctivity of the basic set (A, C-, CA) is shifted. Figure 12(b) shows
similar results using a different basic set (DA, A, CA). Note that not all function sets that appear in these figures would normally be used. As explained in
Section 3.3.1, one typically avoids the use of pure conjunction (C) and pure
disjunction (D). Thus, the middle three function sets of Figures 12(a)-(b) are
of primary interest.
It is clear from these figures that the preference ratings of the three systems
are relatively insensitive to GCD functions. DMS-A and DMS-B consistently
rate better than DMS-C. Notice, however, that the rankings of DMS-A and
DMS-B do change (albeit slightly) with different function sets. The reason is
that DMS-A and DMS-B have approximately equal aggregate ratings and a slight
The values of Table IV were chosen randomly and do not reflect preference scores of actual systems.
The absolute variations in values are therefore not significant. They should be treated strictly as
illustrations.
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
494
S. Y. W. Su et al.
Data organization
and access
Data organization
and access
1
----__
----__
.
--,
L.
.5
0
DA
DA
DA
C-
A
CCA
CCA
C+
Function set
CA Optional
C+ Desired
C
Essential
0 -11
D
DA
A
(a)
D+
DC-
DA
A
CA
DCC+
Function set
Optional
A
CA Desired
C
Essential
(b)
Legend: DMS-A
DMS-B
DMS-C
----------
Fig. 12. Sensitivity curves for aggregation functions. (a) Basic function set (A, C-, CA). (b) Basic
function set (DA, A, CA).
change in these ratings is enough to change their ranking. But which of these
two systems is better? Although no absolute advantage can be attributed to
either, the following observation can be used to distinguish them. Highly conjunctive function sets severely penalize a single low preference rating, whereas
highly disjunctive functions excessively reward a single high score. It follows that
those systems that have consistently high scores on all elementary criteria (but
do not necessarily achieve the individual best elementary preference ratings) will
rank the highest as the conjunctivity
of the function set increases; those that
score the best on some (but not all) criteria will rank highest as the conjunctivity
decreases. Thus Figures 12(a)-(b) suggest that DMS-B has consistently good
scores and DMS-A has some of the individually
highest scores.
3.4.2 Test 2. Varziztion of Individual
Preference Ratings. A second test is to
the effects of changes in individual elementary preference ratings on
aggregated preference scores. Figure 13(a)-(c) shows the effects of the preference
ratings of optional (Hierarchical
Records), desired (Variable Length Records),
and essential (Record Size Limitations)
parameters on the Data Organization
and Access rating. As expected, the influence of a parameter is directly related
to its category (i.e., optional, desired, etc.). That is, optional parameter ratings
influence aggregate scores minimally, while essential parameter ratings influence
them strongly.
The influence of sensitive parameter ratings is nonlinear. A small change in a
low rating has a much greater effect on an aggregated score than a similar change
in a high rating (see Figure 13(c)). This is quite important.
It means that
inaccurate preference assignments to these parameters may produce unreliable
aggregate ratings. This indicates that care should be taken whenever scores
(especially low scores) are assigned to sensitive performance parameters; such
scores should be assigned as accurately as possible. Most care should normally
investigate
ACM Transactions
1987.
495
Data organization
and access
1.0 -I-
Data organization
end access
1.0
--_---_-___--
0 t#mIlI
.5
0
.5
Hierarchical
records
.5
records
(b)
(4
Data organization
and access
1.0
/DMS-A9B
.ii
Record
size
limitations
Cc)
Legend: DMS-A
DMS-B
DMS-C
----------
Fig. 13. Sensitivity curves for elementary criteria. (a) Optional parameter. (b) Desired parameter.
(c) Essential parameter.
be given to essential parameters, less to desirable ones, and the least to optional
parameters, which is intuitively appealing. Graphs such as those in Figure 13 are
useful in identifying the parameters and preference ranges with the greatest
sensitivity.
3.4.3 Test 3. Variation of Weights. A third test is to investigate the importance
of weights used in aggregation structures. Figure 14 shows the results of shifting
a weight AW from one parameter to another. (The aggregation structure of
Figure 11 and the elementary preferences of Table IV remain constant in these
evaluations.) Although the choice of weights normally does affect aggregate
scores, in this particular example it does so marginally. This means that for this
example the choice of weights is not critical and the use of particular weights
does not have to be extensively justified. (Different conclusions may be reached
for other examples.) Graphs such as those in Figure 14 are useful in determining
the relative importance of weight assignments.
Some insight into the results of Figure 14(c) reveals why DMS-A and DMS-B
are rated better than DMS C. A Data Organization and Access preference is an
ACM Transactions
1987.
496
S. Y. W. Su
et al.
Data organization
and access
Data organization
and access
0 I,.,.
-20 -10
0 I,,,.
-20 -10
AW
0
+10
+20
+10 +20
Repeating
groups
Variable
length records
) Duplicate
keys
Hierarchical (
records
AW
0
0-4
(4
Data organization
and access
0
-20
AW
-10
+10 +20
Other
operations
Record
implementation
(4
Legend: DMS-A
DMS-B
DMS-C
-------_-_-
Fig. 14. Sensitivity curves for aggregation weights. (a) Optional weightings. (b) Desired weightings.
(c) Essential weightings.
aggregation of three preference ratings: Record Implementation, Implementation Requirements, and Other Operations. From the elementary preferences of
Table IV and the aggregation structures of Figure 11, we find
Criteria
DMS-A
DMS-B
DMS-C
Record Implementation
Implementation Requirements
Other Operations
.70
.89
1.00
.77
.87
.90
.66
.84
.80
DMS-C rates lowest on all three counts, and thus has no advantage over
DMS-A and DMS-B. On the other hand, DMS-A rates higher than DMS-B
ACM Transactions
1987.
497
and Aggregation
This step is the counterpart of preference analysis and aggregation, and may
actually be conducted concurrently and fairly independently. As we pointed out
in the introduction, the current literature was of little help in suggesting any
standards for cost estimation. The DMS applications literature also lacks discussion of costs; however, the following general set of issues do apply to the
present cost evaluation problem:
(i) Include all direct and indirect costs.
(ii) Consider specific knowledge about application complexity, languages, and
choice of hardware and software in estimating costs of software development.
(iii) Reflect personnel skill levels, organizational/personnel time constraints,
and system constraints in time estimation.
(iv) Tailor the estimates to the organizations structure, capabilities, and limitations; anticipate political and behavioral implications.
In the following subsections we discuss the issues and approaches involved in
the estimation and aggregation of costs. No hard-and-fast formulas for cost
computation are considered, a more detailed treatment of the cost analysis may
be found in [22].
It is necessary to make some clarifications regarding the C nodes in our tree.
It is well known that the pricing policies of manufacturers are such that attributing costs to individual features is impossible in most situations. On the other
hand, vendors do package systems in terms of basic system-plus add-on
modules. The costs of these add-on components can be easily figured. Therefore,
as a general rule, it is not possible to break cost trees down to as fine a level as
preference trees. A manager or a committee in charge of defining the cost tree
needs to do so on the basis of available information. Only those nodes should be
included whose costs can be computed. Any further breakdown is meaningless.
It is also reasonable to consider different cost trees for different candidate systems
that may be packaged differently.
Although the costs being considered include initial acquisition, training, and
operation, they still constitute only a part of the entire system life-cycle costs.
Long-term operation costs, hardware, and communication costs may be included
if they can be calculated reasonably.
3.5.1 Cost Computation Using the Cost Tree. As far as the estimation of costs
related to data management systems is concerned, our overall SRP tree approach
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
498
S. Y. W. Su et al.
Table V.
service
n
X
x
X
x
x
X
X
X
X
x
x
1987.
x
x
x
x
x
x
X
X
X
x
x
x
X
X
X
499
Table V-Continued
cost
nodes
34
35
36
37
4 RPC conversion
41 RPC data conversion effort
42 RPC program conversion effort
5 RPC application systems
51 PC DMS program development
52 RPC DMS performance requirements
521 PC transaction performance
6 RPC operations
61 RC Personnel
611 C management (DBA)
613 C systems analysts
615 C programmers
62 RPC training and professional development
621 CP managers
622 PC systems analysts and engineers
623 PC applications analysts
624 PC programmers
625 PC data entry
626 PC operators
627 PC users
63 RC facility operations
634 C alterations of facilities
64 RC Expendables
641 C I/O materials and supplies (tapes and packs)
x
n
x
x
x
x
31
X
n
X
X
31
31
X
X
X
X
would require one to compute the costs of the leaf nodes of the cost tree and then
aggregate them using an aggregation procedure.
The general structure of the System Requirements and Parameter Tree and
labels for different node types (Figure 2) makes it easy to construct a cost tree
for a decision problem. An example cost tree is shown in Table V in an outline
form to demonstrate how the general structure can also be easily reproduced in
a short, easily readable format for a specific decision. It includes all the cost
nodes (i.e., nodes with a C label) of an SRP tree that need to be considered for
the decision problem. The tree in Table V starts with all the first-level nodes
and is expanded into about two or three lower levels (with some exceptions, such
as Node #22215 Main Memory, which is at the fifth level) to show how the costs
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
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et al.
1987.
501
by the time periods in which they will occur. Methods for doing this are detailed
in the various cost and performance descriptions and in various cost modules; all
resource requirements must be stated in the same units, say dollars, with related
beginning and ending dates. Second, a common time horizon or ending date must
be specified by using theoretical and practical considerations to permit comparable and pragmatic evaluations of the alternatives. Third, the dollar amounts
accumulated by time periods must be discounted by an appropriate discount rate
to make the dollar amounts comparable in the decision time period.
There is no disagreement found in the literature regarding the method to be
employed to find the global cost for an alternative. For each alternative, there is
a vector of costs or expenditure sums by time period, usually a year:
where t = horizon year.
Cl, c2, G, - - - , Ct,
For an organization there is an appropriate rate, r, for discounting the years
costs, so that the same time-value units are given to the decision maker. The
discounting process permits the summation of commensurate units into a present
value, which is designated here as the global cost (GC) of an alternative. That is,
Ct
- Cl
- C2
~
= iil (Ci (1 + r)-i).
GC = (1 + r)l+ (1 + r)2 + * + (1 + r)t
This definition is uniform across the various disciplines and specialties, as
indicated by a sampling of texts in finance [6, pp. 34-561, information systems
[38, pp. 289-2921, operations management [35, pp. 232-2501, microeconomic
theory [32, pp. 296-3191, and economics [5, pp. 446-4511. However, there are
sharply differing positions in the literature concerning the selection of time
horizon and discount rate. We consider these two issues in the following two
subsections.
Theoretical and Pragmatic Horizon Period Issues in Cost Aggregation. From a
theoretical point of view, the horizon time issue in this DMS Cost/Benefit model
applies as follows. The set of DMSs under evaluation may have the same or
different life expectancies. That is, a candidate system, Si, is expected to last
until or be considered for replacement in full or part at time tl and S2 (Si) at
time t2(tl). If the life expectancies of all alternatives are the same, there is no
horizon problem. However, if they are different, they present a problem for a fair
comparison, since a system with a shorter life expectancy will presumably be
replaced by another system, which amounts to an additional cost that needs
to be taken into consideration. The traditional approach to this problem is to
introduce a series of so-called replacement chains [6, 32, 351 which extend
through time to the first common denominator year, that is, the year in which
all candidate systems would be considered for replacement. This permits the
comparison of equal service periods.
The time horizon problem and replacement chain concept can be illustrated
by the following example. Assume the following costs for two systems: S1 with
tl = 2 and S2with t2= 3.
Cost in
Cost in
Cost in
year 2
year 3
year 1
Sl
s2
$20
$20
ACM Transactions
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$10
$lo
1987.
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S. Y. W. Su et al.
If only the first life cycles are considered for both, then the global cost (GC)
of S1 will always be less than the GC of S1 at positive discount rates (e.g.,
28 percent less at a 10 percent rate). But extending both systems at given cycle
costs to t = 6 years where both would be considered for replacement, the absolute
cost for two S2s is less than the absolute cost for three &s. Moreover, the GCs
at 10 percent are $59.45 for SZ and $66.35 for S1; i.e., SZ is 9 percent less. This
chain assumes that the organization will continue to require some system over
the replacement chains first common denominator year.
With multiple systems having different life expectancies ti, the first common
denominator year naturally becomes large. For example, t1 = 3 and tZ = 4 moves
the first common replacement year to year 12. At t1 = 4 and t2 = 5, it is 20. And
if tl = 3, t2 = 4, and t3 = 5, the common replacement year is 60! Obviously, a
realistic situation can involve a large first common denominator
year. The
application of replacement chains to the DMS selection problem can be practically insurmountable
since the ti)s of systems are almost impossible to specify.
Finding the common denominator, therefore, becomes senseless.
An alternative procedure is the equivalent annual annuity method. Here the
GCs over one cycle are computed for each alternative. Each GC is then converted
to an equivalent annual annuity. The system with the lowest equivalent annual
annuity GC will be the same as the system with the lowest replacement chain
GC. An additional step, assuming infinite replacements, is to divide each equivalent annual annuity by the discount rate, giving the infinite horizon net GC for
each alternative. This result is obtained when, for i = 1, 2, . . . , m, the value of
Ci is a constant Kin the following expression:
Infinite
which is also known
example:
Horizon
as the capitalization
of a constant
1987.
503
Discounted
System A Costs
Year
Discount
Factor
(A)
03)
1
2
3
4
.8739
.7637
.6674
.5832
$474K
$163.7K
$167.2K
$167.2K
Discounted
Annual
Discounted
(A x B)
$414K
125K
$111.6K
997.5K
$748K
System B Costs
Annual
Discounted
(Cl
(A x Cl
$500K
$166.5K
$166.5K
$166.5K
$437#
$127K
$lllK
$97K
$772K
ity. Present and foreseeable economic conditions indicate such extensions are
unrealistic because of general inflation expectations and the widely divergent
movements of salary, hardware, software, and other expense price levels in the
computing and data processing industries. Most, if not all, the individuals who
have attempted to estimate distant computing costs agree that the fourth years
estimates are tenuous at best. This makes the choice of theoretically
correct
decision horizon times and discounting methods very difficult, since present
systems are generally considered to have a four to five year life span, and some
writers have speculated that the typical life of a DBMS system can be five to ten
years [34].
Discount Rate Considerations. The comparison of the costs of two systems
with variable pricing schedules over time, as well as with different life expectancies, is further influenced by the choice of the discount rate. An appropriate rate
to be used would be the social welfare discount rate. This rate ideally measures
the worth to the household sector of the economy of current versus future
consumption. A lower (higher) discount rate results in placing a higher (lower)
value on future consumption or expenditures. Federal agencies are recommended
to use the current market yield rates on debt instruments with life spans that
match the projects being evaluated as the proper discount rate in their computation. This was suggested in the last general statement on discount rates,
applicable to projects where Congress has not set a rate-OMB
Circular A-70,
dated February 1, 1965. The General Accounting Office of the U.S. Government
also recommends the use of the above practice [28,29,39].
A hypothetical example for comparing the GCs of Systems A and B by taking
into account the present value at a specific discount rate is given in Table VI.
Most organizations and their accounting departments have set policies regarding
the choice of discount rates.
3.5.4 Recommended Cost Aggregation Model. The cost aggregation
recommended for this DMS Cost/Benefit Model are as follows:
methods
(1) Specify the major alternatives to be considered for the analyses (e.g., a file
system and a DBMS system), based on the major features of the systems
and appoint a member of top management as project coordinator.
ACM Transactions
1987.
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S. Y. W. Su
et al.
(2) Choose one time horizon (year or month) by considering the major alternatives. This horizon time should be the most future period for which the user
considers cost estimates reasonable for inclusion in decisions. Or the time
horizon can be considered as the time period just before that period for which
cost estimates would be unreasonable.
(3) Estimate the cost elements of each major alternative through the time
horizon. This might include additional investments in an existing system
during future years to permit desired applications. A recommended procedure
is as follows:
(a) Top and middle management review all cost nodes and determine which
are most likely to be included in the cost tree for each alternative. This
results in a pruned tree.
(b) The various included nodes are assigned to various employees for evaluation based on the employees knowledge, experience, and skills.
(c) Employees responsible for the various nodes determine whether they can
be assigned cost values with information available in-house and/or
whether an RFP is required. Cost tree descriptions and module listings
indicate the types of detail required about resources and prices to find
cost totals by time period.
(d) Employees responsible for the various nodes estimate the costs over the
horizon times using information when it becomes available.
(e) Completed cost estimates are reported to the employees immediate
supervisors for review and coordination until all cost information is held
by top management.
(f) Minor alternatives are specified by top management (e.g., one or more
features of a major alternative are varied), and costs are adjusted as
appropriate by the top management officer designated as the project
coordinator.
(4) Aggregate absolute cost levels by years for each major and minor alternative.
(5) Choose a discount rate per the accounting policy of the organization. If no
such policy exists, compute the discount rate by weighting the current yields
at which the Federal government is borrowing money on instruments with
lives similar to the chosen horizon time:Or use the rate the Congress specifies,
if any.
(6) Compute the global cost of each DMS alternative under consideration by
discounting the absolute yearly costs at the appropriate discount rate.
3.6 Step 6. Cost-Preference Analysis
Cost-preference analysis is a systematic procedure for comparing and ranking
alternatives on the basis of the requirements defined by the SRP tree. If
we refer to the alternatives being compared as systems S(l), S@), . . . , SC),
then the preference analysis produces a set of global preference scores EF,
E(2)
E$ for these systems, while the cost analysis produces a set of
gl%a; Gts C$, Ch, . . . , Cg). Consequently, the problem of ranking n systems
reduces to the mapping of each pair (El;, C$) into a global cost-preference
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
505
indicator Qti), and then ranking the systems in order of their Q values. In this
section we explain some mapping and ranking processes.
We can visualize that the global preference E. and the global cost Co form a
two-dimensional space (or an Eo-Co plane). Each pair of scores (Et, C$?) is a
point on the Eo-Co plane. A region of acceptable solutions (ROAS) can be defined
so that the systems for which the point (E,, C,) falls in the region are considered
to be acceptable systems.
The criterion for defining the ROAS may differ from case to case. Most
frequently the system selection committee specifies the nominal global cost
indicator C,* and the corresponding nominal global preference EZ. Usually, Et is
defined as the minimal level of acceptable global preference (most frequently
60% 5 E$ I 80%), and C,* is computed from the financial limitations of
the particular organization, and represents the maximal cost indicator the
organization can afford. Using the point (C,*, E$), the following regions in
the (E,, C&plane can be defined:
(p) := Region of satisfactory preference (EO> E,*)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
:=
:=
:=
:=
:=
:=
(p)
(c)
(r)
(p) and (c)
(p) and (r)
(c) and (r)
These six possibilities are shown in Figure 15. The system selection committee
should be able to select a ROAS according to the particular conditions of the
given organization.
After rejecting systems that fall outside of the ROAS, the final step in the
cost-preference analysis is the ranking and comparison of those competitive
systems that remain. To accomplish this step, we need a method of mapping
each (Et, (26) pair to a global cost-preference indicator, Qti), and then to
compare the Qti) values
Suppose that k competitive systems remained inside the ROAS (k s n). We
define the boundary systems (denoted by indices i,,,,, and imiD) as follows:
S&J.
Q(h) = max Q(i)
lsisk
S&i,).
Q(Cd
min
Q(i).
l&Sk
Among various possible mapping and ranking criteria, the following four approaches are the most frequently used:
(1) Ranking according to decreasing preferences:
Q(i) := E&i;
select S(k=).
ACM Transactions on Database Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1987.
506
S. Y. W. Su et al.
% Eo
00 ,, .. . . . : :::, :.:. 2 , ,,.:.-a.**y;.:.;- : ..d,
.:7: :.: :
,,,: -(r.
.., -., . . &is
I (p) .~:..I;;.;;:
.,*:.,,,
.1.-.>.:,.., : ..-..,::.,
,,, ..*I.. . . .
...
.
G
OL
0
co
%
100 t
co*
co-
%1Eo
Eo
E:
0
Fig. 15.
(2) Ranking
(3) Ranking
ACM Transactions
Definition
(ROAS).
1987.
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507
;I 2:
;,r;
- a;e;f;~;;;,.
ISiS.
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CRITERIA
AGGREGATfON STRUCTURE
A-l
ACM Transactions
1987.
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CRITERIA
AGGREGATION STRUCTURE
PO70
xuuxxatia
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CRITERJA
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CRITERIA
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CRITERIA
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*Is.?
1
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&fQ
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ACM Transactions
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CRITERIA
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STRUCTURE
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L.,
-
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i
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3
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ACM Transactions
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CRITERIA
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CRITERIA
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CRITERIA
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