Economic Insights

Economics | September 25 2015

Week Ahead
Current

Last Week

Last month

Last year

September 17

September 10

August 17

September 17 2014

Cash Rate (%)

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.50

90 day bills (%)

2.18

2.19

2.4

2.64

10 year bonds (%)

2.88

2.72

2.79

3.65

AUD/USD

0.7187

0.7014

0.7397

0.9069

Gold ( US$/ounce)

1119.00

1109.30

1118.40

1235.90

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne)

56.00

58.50

56.00

84.20

Oil ( US$/barrel)

47.15

45.92

41.87

94.42

All Ordinaries

5171.2

5117.0

5368.6

5411.4

Australia
Date

Event

Consensus

Last release

Tuesday September 29

Weekly consumer sentiment

114.5

Wednesday September 30

Private sector credit (August)

0.5%

0.6%

Wednesday September 30

Building approvals (August)

-1.0%

4.2%

Thursday October 1

CoreLogic home prices (September)

0.3%

0.3%

Thursday October 1

Job vacancies (August)

2.1%

Friday October 2

Retail sales (August)

0.4%

-0.1%

International
Date

Consensus

Last release

Monday September 28

US Pending home sales (August)

Event

0.4%

0.5%

Tuesday September 29

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (July)

0.03%

-0.12%

Tuesday September 29

US Consumer confidence (September)

96.0

101.5

Wednesday September 30

US ADP employment gauge (September)

188k

190k

Thursday October 1

US ISM manufacturing (September)

50.6

51.1

Thursday October 1

China purchasing managers index (September)

Friday October 2

US Non-farm payrolls (September)

47.0

200k

173k

The top shelf indicators return in Australia in the coming week. In China the purchasing managers indexes are
released. And in the US, arguably the most important monthly indicator the employment or non-farm payrolls
data is issued.

In Australia, the week kicks off on Tuesday when ANZ and Roy Morgan release the weekly consumer
confidence rating. Last week the weekly consumer confidence reading rose by 8.7 per cent last week the
biggest weekly gain in the 7-year history of the survey. Whether the initial positivity is sustained will depend on the
future performance and direction of the new administration. But increased confidence is certainly a positive for the
Australian economy hopefully translating into increased spending, investment and employment.

On Friday, retail trade data is released. Sales figures have been more mixed in recent months, having fallen by
0.1 per cent in July after a 0.6 per cent increase in June. Annual spending growth is holding at 4.2 per cent
slightly below the decade average of 4.4 per cent. Disappointingly, last month non-food spending fell by 0.1 per
cent, the first fall in seven months. The hope would be that the more upbeat confidence readings, warm weather
and early mid-season sales should have encouraged some early lift in Spring-related spending.

Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author)

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