Jean-Pierre Bocquet- Farewell to Paleodernography

Appel, Claude Masset*

Aging is based upon a good correlation between biological features
(cranial sutures, pubic symphysis, humeral and femoral heads,
osteons) and age. However it is not possible to estimate the structure
of deaths of skeletal population if the correlation coefficient (r or
multiple-R) between biological characteristics and age is lower than
0-9. None of the published age indicators, whether they are used
together or separately, reach this required level (about 0'83 for
* Laboratolre de Prghistoire,
males and 0.8 for females). Therefore all the age distributions
Coll~ge de France,
currently published emphasize the limitation of a given method. At
11 place ~Viarcelin Berthelot,
the present time the use of demographic estimators based on historiF-75231 Paris Cedex 05, France
cally known populations is the best approach but it gives little
information (e0 = 25 years, lq0 = 0"25 to 0.3, average number of
Received 24 May 1931 and
children per woman = 4-6), furthermore it is, to a certain extent,
accepted 9 November 1981
tautological in nature. After devoting a few years to this young,
possibly still-born science, the authors bid farewell to paleodemoKeywords : paleodemography,
aging, demographic estimations. graphy.

Centre National de la Recherche

Scientifique, Institut de
Palgontologie Humaine,
1 rue Reng Panhard,
F- 75013 Paris, France

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n
T h e bones c o m i n g from cernetery excavations often have in store interesting indications
as to their owners' sexes a n d ages at d e a t h . S t a r t i n g from this k i n d of information, it
was t e m p t i n g to calculate the a g e - s e x d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the d e a d for a n y e x h u m e d p o p u l a tion. T h u s a considerable n u m b e r of essays in p a l e o d e m o g r a p h y c a m e into being.
F r o m such a s t a r t i n g - p o i n t , some o f t h e m go so far as to reconstitute lif~-tables.
M e a n w h i l e , "historical d e m o g r a p h y " - - w h i c h is w o r k e d o u t m a i n l y from p a r i s h
registers of births, m a r r i a g e s a n d d e a t h s - - s u c c e e d e d in c o n s t r u c t i n g a p i c t u r e of life a n d
d e a t h a m o n g the E u r o p e a n peoples of three centuries ago (see for instance P e r r e n o u d ,
1975, or Blayo, 1975). Tile c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n the m o r t a l i t y p a t t e r n thus o b t a i n e d a n d
the one arising from o u r g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a t i o n s (some of t h e m b a r e l y older) was striking.
I t c h a l l e n g e d the q u a l i t y of the conclusions p r o p o u n d e d b y the p a l e o d e m o g r a p h e r s :
were the p o p u l a t i o n s they h a d b e e n investigating a c t u a l l y as p e c u l i a r as they seemed to
be? o r p e r h a p s were the m e t h o d s in use w a r p e d b y some systematic e r r o r ?
T h e second hypothesis p r o v e d to be the r i g h t one. I n fact there are several causes o f
error, of a statistical r a t h e r t h a n a biological n a t u r e . These causes o f error were d e s c r i b e d
in previous works (Masset, 1971, 1973, 1976a) a n d they a r e n o t to be e x p o u n d e d here.
J u s t to give the r e a d e r a n i d e a o f the r a n g e of the deviations involved, let us only r e c a l l
the most a w k w a r d of t h e m : the p r o c e d u r e w h i c h leads one to superimpose on the
m o r t a l i t y structure of c e m e t e r y p o p u l a t i o n s the structure o f o t h e r p o p u l a t i o n s entirely
alien to them.
W e shall call "reference p o p u l a t i o n " the set o f skeletons of a k n o w n a g e to Which w e
c o m p a r e o u r g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a t i o n s so as to calculate their ages a t d e a t h .
T o each stage of evolution o f a n age i n d i c a t o r - - w h e t h e r it b e t h e c r a n i a l sutures, t h e
p u b i c symphysis, or the H a v e r s i a n s y s t e m - - c o r r e s p o n d s a m e a n age in the reference
Journal of Human Evolution (1982) 11, 321-333

0047-2484]82/040321

+ 13 $03.00]0

~ 1982 Academic Press Inc. (London) Limited

J.-P. BOCQUET-APPEL AND C. MA$SET

322

p o p u l a t i o n . I t so h a p p e n s t h a t this m e a n age is not wholly biological b y n a t u r e : it also

d e p e n d s to a large extent o n the a g e structure o f the reference p o p u l a t i o n . T h e effect o f
this factor is n o t self-evident. Better t h a n a l e n g t h y dissertation, a q u i c k glance a t
F i g u r e 1 will allow t h e r e a d e r to a p p r e c i a t e the influence o f the age structures of t h e
various reference p o p u l a t i o n s u p o n the a g e determinations.
Figure 1. Effect of the age structure of a reference population on the
age determination. (I) Reference population of McKern & Stewart
(1957); n = 375 skeletons. (I') Age distribution of the dead in
Sudan Nubia, from the 1lth to the 13th century, by the symphyseat
face of the pubis, referring to I; n = 258 (Swedlund & Armelagos,
1969). (II) Reference population ofNemeskeri et al. (1960); n ,= 105.
(II') Age distribution of the dead in Hungary, from the 10th to the
12th century, by the "complex method", referring to II; n = 1756
(Acs~di & Nemesk6ri 1970). (III) Reference population of Kobayashi
(1957); n = 142. (III') Twenty-five sets of Japanese skeletons,
spreading out t~om the Jomon time (9000 B.C.) to the 19th century
A.D., by the symphyseal face of the pubis, referring to III; n = 469
(ibid).

'oF'

F1
4'03020[10 I'

~ 20

,L '

IO

IO 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

I0 20 30 40

L_ ,
t
I
50 60 7 0 8 0

Age (U.S.)
3O

20-

,o

30
f 2 0 I1'

'~

~'
I
I
I
IO 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
IO 20 30 40
Age (Hungary)
I

g 20

g ,o
o

ill

l,

I,
50 60 7 0 8 0 9 0
I

111'

I0
!

,
i

I0 20 50 40 50 60
6 70 80

F /,
I

IO

20

I
i,,

30 40 50 60 70 80

Age (Jopon)

H o w e v e r , let us h a v e a look at F i g u r e 2, which represents two subsets o f m a l e c r a n i a

t a k e n from the L i s b o n collection ( " F e r r a z de M a c e d o " C o l l e c t i o n ) ; these two samples
were m a d e u p b y using a n a l g o r i t h m t h a t produces, from a set o f real n u m b e r s , subsets
w h i c h a r e n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d a n d whose means a n d variances a r e close to the values
p r o p o u n d e d b y the o p e r a t o r . I n the two d i a g r a m s o f F i g u r e 2, the age is on the x-axis,
a n d the degree o f closure o f the c r a n i a l sutures on the y-axis. T h e n u m b e r of c r a n i a is

FAREWELL

323

TO PALEODEMOGRAPHY

Figure 2. Relationship between cranial sutures' closure and age in

two subsets of one population. There is a translation of one of the
two regression lines, while the other remains more or less in the
same place.

II

BI

2~

50

A1

40

/'./
/ B2

/ /)

50

the same in both cases: n = 65. F o r Subset I, the m e a n age is x = 25"8, a n d the s t a n d a r d
deviation s.d. = 5.8. For Subset I I , they are respectively 50"7 a n d 8.0.*
W h e n c o m p a r i n g the scatter plots a n d the corresponding regression lines, we find
that A 1 a n d As, w h i c h indicate the m e a n synostosis for each age, almost occupy the s a m e
position i n b o t h d i a g r a m s : they express a biological p h e n o m e n o n i n d e p e n d e n t of the
age composition, as the m e a n degree of synostosis of an age bracket could not d e p e n d
on the structure of a set this b r a c k e t was drawn from. However, w h e n a g i n g a c r a n i u m
by the state of its sutures, one m u s t not use A 1 a n d A~, b u t B 1 a n d B~, the inverse regressions. As these lines are b o u n d to go t h r o u g h the center of gravity of the scatter plots,
their position depends a great deal on the position of the latter. I n the second d i a g r a m ,
while B 1 r e m a i n s i n the same position, B 2 runs further a p a r t to the right. I n the case of
Degree of Synostosis 1, for instance, we see that tile average age is 27 in the left s a m p l e ,
a n d 48 i n the right one.
Moreover, B 1 a n d B z would n o t be parallel if we did not have a Gaussian r e p a r t i t i o n
in b o t h cases. W h e n this is not the case, B rotates a r o u n d the center of gravity of the
scatter plot, getting closer to A as the p r o p o r t i o n of extreme vaIues to center values
increases, getting further away from it w h e n it decreases. Therefore, unlike A, B is
mobile on the plane, according to the age distribution of the p o p u l a t i o n we are studying.
T h e age extimations this line c o m m a n d s vary along with it. T h e r e is a translation of
one of the two regression lines, while the other remains more or less in the same place.
T w o other causes of error result in leaving old people out of every age distribution.
A third a n d especially h a r m f u l one is related to the sex d i m o r p h i s m which is overlooked
by most palaeodemographers, w h e n its i m p o r t a n c e was outlined b y Picozzo as early as
*The propounded values were, for the subset I, s = 25 and s = 5;
for subset II, s = 50 and s.d. = 10, as we wished to make up samples
that can be compared, respectively, to the sample of soldiers killed
in Corea published by McKern & Stewart (1957) on which most
American palaeodemographers currently rely (where s -- 23.5 and
s.d. = 5.8) and to the male crania of the Budapest collection (Acsgtdi
& Nemeskeri, 1970), which has served as basis to the most up-to-date
European research (where s = 56-7 and s.d. = 15.5).

324

J.-P. BOCIQUET-APPEL AND

C. MASSET

1895, and by m a n y others since (for instance Brooks, 1955; Necrasov et al., 1966; Hajnis
& Nov~k, 1976). Finally, we must be aware that the pataeodemographic way of
reasoning implies that the osseous evolution of adults has never varied from Prehistory
to the present time, which is nothing short of doubtful. O n the contrary, we can show
that the ossification of cranial sutures, for instance, has tended for a century to materialize
earlier and earlier in a life time (Masset & de Castro e Almeida, 1981). The mere
possibility of a secular trend of the age indicators should have urged us to make up our
reference population solely out of individuals deceased before the Industrial Revolution
of the 19th and 20th centuries, or away from it. O n the contrary, most paleodemographers refer to individuals deceased in 1953 (McKern & Stewart, 1957) or 1956
(Acs~di & Nemeskeri, 1970), if not more recently yet.
Therefore a different approach to paleodemographic research would be welcome:
keeping clear of the signalled snags, it would be necessary in order to avoid the main
cause of error, to rely upon reference populations with age classes of about the same
size. One of us has tried to do so (Bocquet, 1977, 1978). Unfortunately, this type of
research involves a number of basic theoretical difficulties, which we are going to examine
nOW.

2. T h e E s t i m a t i o n o f a P o p u l a t i o n S t r u c t u r e

Beyond the individual aging of a skeleton, what a paleodemographer attempts to

estimate is a structure of deaths, i.e. the distribution of deaths according to age. I n
other words, this is a classifying problem. The skeletons, the ages of which have been
individually assessed, are distributed in one class or another. Usually, the rate of misclassification among subadults in the 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 age brackets is very
low, for the age estimation is based on a biological process--growth--taking place
within a comparatively short span of time. With adults, on the contrary, the age estimation is based on a process developing within much looser limits: the aging process.
For the latter, what does the classification error depend on? I t depends on two elements,
the first one of a biological, the second of a statistical nature:
(1) the error of age determination ay, as given by the regression Y ( X ) whatever the
age indicator m a y be. This standard error reflects the a m o u n t of variability of the
h u m a n skeleton during the aging process. One intuitively feels that the higher the
variability of an age indicator, the lower its anthropological interest.
(2) the range of age groups going into the structure of deaths to be estimated. All
things being equal, the wider the class range, the lower the n u m b e r of misclassified
skeletons.
In the case of a uniform distribution of individuals between the 18 and 90 age limits,
i.e. within 72 years, the variance of the distribution is:
vat(X) = E ( X ~) -- E ( X ) 2 - - 3

4 - - - ~ ' cry = ~ /

where a is the upper limit of the distribution (72 years), ay = 20.68 years.
This being specified, if the intensity of the relation between the biological indicator
a n d the age at death is known, i.e. if we know the different levels of correlation (r or
R-multiple), we can calculate a priori, first the standard-error in the estimation of the

325

FAREWELL T O PALEODEMOGRAPHY

age o f a skeleton, second the r a n g e of the age groups w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n . This r a n g e

c a n n o t b e assigned j u s t a n y n u m e r i c a l value. I t has to be such t h a t the classifying e r r o r
will b e inferior to a n a c c e p t a b l e p r o b a b i l i t y level. F o r a classifying e r r o r of 5 % , t h e
r a n g e is cry 4.
T a b l e 1 gives for a n y biological i n d i c a t o r , a c c o r d i n g to various levels o f correlation
with a g e : (a) the s t a n d a r d - e r r o r of age e s t i m a t i o n within 95 % o f confidence limit, (b)
the r a n g e o f age class requisite to a 5 % r a t e of misclassification, a n d (c) the total n u m b e r
of age g r o u p s w h i c h can possibly b e b u i l t u p w i t h i n the 72-year r a n g e (18 to 90).
Table 1

r or R
O.1
0.2
0"3
0"4
0.5
0-6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0"950
0.990
0.999
0"999927

Relation between the correlation level of a biological indicator

( r o r R ) a n d a g e a t d e a t h , a n d : s t a n d a r d - e r r o r of a g e e s t l m a t i o n at 95% l e v e l ; r a n g e o f a g e - g r o u p s f o r a 5~ o f m i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ; n u m b e r o f a g e g r o u p s in t h e d e l ~ a o g r a p h i c
structure to be estimated

Error of estimation
at 95% level

Group range for 5%

of miselassifieation

Number of age groups in

the estimated structure

41~36
40.73
39.65
38.09
36
33.25
29-68
24.94
18"11
12.97
5.86
1.85
0.5

----72
66.51
59.37
49.88
36"23
25.95
11"72
3.71
1

------1
1.1
1.2
1.4
2
2'8
6. I
19.4
72

W h a t do w e see? U n d e r a 0.9 correlation level, it is impossible to estimate w i t h o u t a

c o n s i d e r a b l e risk of error b o t h the i n d i v i d u a l age of a skeleton a n d the d e a t h s t r u c t u r e
to w h i c h it belongs. However, w e a r e often t o l d t h a t r o u g h age i n d i c a t o r s a n d r o u g h
m e t h o d s t e n d to give r o u g h d e m o g r a p h i c results. This is a fallacy. T a b l e 1 p l a i n l y
shows t h a t w e find n o t h i n g at all.
A r e there a n y biological indicators w i t h such a high c o r r e l a t i o n level? I t is q u i t e
r a r e in the biological field. T a b l e s 2 a n d 3 give the coefficients o f correlation w i t h t h e
age a t d e a t h for all the p u b l i s h e d age indicators, w h e t h e r they a r e used together or
separately. N o n e b y far r e a c h the r e q u i r e d level. Even the H a v e r s i a n system, w h i c h
since the 1910s ( B a l t h a z a r d & L e b r u n , 1911) has now a n d then fostered a g l i m m e r o f
hope, is of little interest.
Lastly, it should be stated that, strictly speaking, the rate o f misclassified skeletons for
a given structure is u n k n o w n a n d unknowable. I t d e p e n d s chiefly on t h e a c t u a l a g e
structure o f the p o p u l a t i o n , a n d this is precisely w h a t we a r e t r y i n g to find out. I f t h e
d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n we wish to reconstruct were k n o w n b e f o r e h a n d , w e c o u l d
c o m p u t e the rate of misclassification, n a m e l y the difference b e t w e e n the a c t u a l a n d the
e s t i m a t e d structure. But we do n o t k n o w it. O w i n g to the u n i f o r m s t r u c t u r e o f t h e
reference p o p u l a t i o n , w e p o s t u l a t e d t h a t the misclassification is evenly distributed.
But this u n i f o r m d i s t r i b u t i o n is o n l y the best a p p r o x i m a t i o n possible to all the u n k n o w n

326

J.-P. BOGQUET-APPEL AND Go MASSET

Coefficients of correlation between the major age indicators
and the age at death (Crude observation data d r a w n f r o m
the anthropological population of Colmbra, Portugal)

Table 2

Humerus
Endocranial
sutures
Males
Females
Both sexes

0-591
0.346

Femur

spongiosa cortical
0-340
0-442

spongiosa

-- 0.432
-- 0.688

0.564
0"584

cortical

Pubic
symphysis

-- 0.022
-- 0.464

Osteons

0.469
0.497
0.526-0.720

For all age indicators except osteons, n = 194 among males, n = 161
among females; Osteons: n = 19 and 15 in both sexes.
From: Bocquet-Appel, Maia Neto, de Morais & Tavares da Rocha,
1978; Bocquet-Appel, Almeida Tavares da Rocha & Xavier de
Morals, 1980.
Table 3

Multiple correlation coefficients (R) between the major age

indicators and the age at death (theoretical s a m p l e drawn
f r o m the anthropological population o f Colmbra, Portugal)
Males
Age
indicators
2
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
4

5
5,
5,
5,
5,

6
6, 3
6, 3, 1
6, 3, 1

Females

0-706
0.768
0.809
0.824
0.829

299
298
297
296
295

Age
indicators

0.001 3
0"001 3,
0.001 3,
0.001 3,
0.05 3,
3,
0.829 294 N.S. 1

2
2,
2,
2,
2,

5
5, 6
5, 6, 4
5, 6 , 4

0.711
0"760
0.789
0"792
0"794

192
191
190
189
188

0.001
0.001
0.001
0"001
N.S.

0.794

187

N.S.

1: Femoral cortical index, 2: Femur (spongiosa), 3: Humeral cortical

index, 4: Humerus (spongiosa), 5: Pubic symphysis, 6: Endocranial
suture closure. N.S. : non significant.
Drawn from: Bocquet-Appel, Maia Neto, Xavier de Morals &
Tavares da Rocha, 1978.
d i s t r i b u t i o n s . T h e effect o f t h e a n t h r o p o l o g i c a l r e f e r e n c e p o p u l a t i o n o n t h e e s t i m a t e d
s t r u c t u r e a s y m p t o t i c a l l y d e c r e a s e s as t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n a g e a n d b i o l o g i c a l i n d i c a t o r c o n v e r g e s t o w a r d s 1.
3. D e m o g r a p h i c

Estimators

S i n c e w e w e r e u n a b l e to e s t i m a t e f r o m t h e i r b o n e s t h e age a t d e a t h o f adults, w e t u r n e d
t o w a r d s a n o t h e r c o u r s e o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n . G r a v e y a r d s p r o v i d e us w i t h t w o k i n d s o f fairly
r e l i a b l e d a t a : t h e a g e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f i m m a t u r e s , a n d t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n fully g r o w n
i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h o s e w h o s e g r o w t h is still in progress. A f t e r a f e w trials, w e s e l e c t e d a
p r o p o r t i o n t h a t w e c o u l d c a l c u l a t e w i t h o u t u n d u e risk o f e r r o r for a g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a tion, n a m e l y t h e r a t i o :
n u m b e r o f c h i l d r e n d e c e a s e d b e t w e e n 5 a n d 15
"II

n u m b e r o f a d u l t s d e c e a s e d a t 20 a n d l a t e r

for s h o r t :

Ds-x4 9
/)20-o)

FAREWELLTO PALEODEMOORAPHY

327

Figure 3. Regression of the life expectancy at birth in terms of the

ratio (D,_14)/D2o_o~. Regression equation: if x = Ds_14/D2o_o,
a n d 8~ is the estimated value of e~, then
~ ~ 78.721 logx0 %/1-~ -- 3.384 1.503. T h e correlation coefficient is r = 0.941.

\o

3O

~ o ~

25

20

I
0,150

I
0.200

I
0.250

I
0.300

Os- ,_.~4
D20

Table 4

Correlation coefficients between some demographical param e t e r s a n d Ds_I4/Dao_ ~ a c c o r d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t r a t e s o f

natural increase

R a t e of n a t u r a l
increase

Life expectancy
at birth

--0.01
--0-005
-- 0.002
0-0
0.002
0.005
0.01

0.940
0-941
0.941
0.941
0.940
0.938
0.933

Demographical parameters
I n f a n t mortality
quotient
Natality
Mortality
0-1 years 0-5 years
rate
rate
0-825
0-833
0.838
0.841
0.843
0.846
0.851

0-738
0-757

0.768
0.775
0.782
0.793
0.810

0.929
0.924
0.920
0.918
0.916
0.913
0.907

0.928
0.923
0.920
0.918
0-916
0-913
0-907

Average n u m b e r
of children
per w o m a n
not calculated
--0-969
----

n ~ 40, except for the average n u m b e r of children where n = 30

(life tables).
P < 0.000 001.
D r a w n from Bocquet & Masset (1977), pp. 84-87, and Bocquet
(1979), p. 266.

328

j . - p . BOC~UET-APPEL AND C. MASSET

Relying on 40 mortality tables with rather low life expectancies, originating mainly
t?om European, American and Asian populations of the last two centuries, and also
from a few European ones of the 17th and early 18th centuries, we were able to observe
correlation coefficients in the region of 0-9 between, on the one hand, Ds_14/D2o_eoand
on the other, the life expectancy at birth, the infant mortality quotient, the natality
and mortality rates, and the average n u m b e r of children born fi'om one w o m a n during
Table 5

E s t i m a t i o n o f the life e x p e c t a n c y at b i r t h (6~), the q u o t i e n t

of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y (1r
the q u o t i e n t o f m o r t a l i t y of c h i l d r e n
before five y e a r s (tr
a n d the a v e r a g e n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n
per w o m a n ( ~ ) for v a r i o u s c e m e t e r i e s
Number
of
skeletons

D5-14
D~0-o

go

too

5q0

Sites
Taforalt
N o r t h Africa
Mesolithic
Columnata
N o r t h Africa
Mesolithic
Fontenay-le-Marmion
France, Ctaasseen
Neolithic
Belleville
France, Late Neolithic
Loisy-en-Brle
France, Late Neolithic
MaroIles-sur-Seine
France, late Neolithic
Tiszapolgar
H u n g a r y , Chalcollthic
Sarata-Monteoru
R o u m a n i a , Middle
Bronze Age
Lerna
Greece, Middle
Bronze Age

Kdrpuszta
Hungary, llthcentury
MedlevalHungary
10th-12th century
Montlgny-Esbly
France, late Neolithic
Sopronk6hida
H u n g a r y , 9th century

186

15
-- 0"188
80

25"01

0"275

0 435

116

10-5
-= 0-219 22"54
48

0"290

0"465

9
--=
4O

22-11

0"293

0-470

6'04

24"01

0"282

0"447

5'71

24-74

0'277

0-440

5"60

25"01

0"275

0'435

5'53

26"45

0"267

0"418

5"27

24'01

0'282

0'447

5'71

0"277

0-438

0"261

0"406

0.254

0.393

0.328

0-541

7.10

0.348

0-579

7-68

62

132
164
35
161
173

0"225

19
-- 0'200
95
22
-- 0-193
114
3.5
- - = 0-188
24
20"I
-- 0-172
116"9
23
-- 0.200
115

234

18
-- 0"190
94

395

37.5
-= 0-162 27"41
231

about
3500
111
145

8.6%
56.4%

= 0.152

24"75

28.44

26
= 0.329
15-97
79
19.83
-- 0-408 12-48
48.64

Indications
given by the
authors

Enumeration :
tq0 = 0"242
5q0 = 0"445
Enumeration:
5'97
xq0 = 0.267
Estimated:
~ o ~ 25 years
5"53

Enumeration:
lqo = 0"359
bqo = 0'487
Estimated :
eo = 16 years
Enumeration:
5"10
tq0 ~ 0.160
~qo ~ 0"278
Emuneratlon:
4.91
tqo ~ 0"200
~qo = 0"308
5"57

D r a w n from Bocquet & Masset (1977), pp. 80-82.

Enumeration :
tq~ ~ 0.I46
5q0 ~ 0"325
estimated:
g~ = 26.65

FAREV~ELL TO PALEODEMOORAPHY

329

her life-time (Table 4 and ~'igure 3) (Bocquet & Masset, 1977; Bocquet, 1979). Thus
we were able to put forward reasonable estimations as to those demographic p a r a meters of the graveyard populations.
T h e sampling carried out to that effect is rather reassuring. I n a few cemeteries, all
the infants were preserved: their n u m b e r comes into the bracket projected by our
estimators, W h e n it is too low, we do not blame our estimators, but the poor preservation of infant bones . . . for instance from a score of European and North African sites
we obtained a life expectancy at birth of about 25 years, a quotient of infant mortality
of 250-300 per thousand, and 5-6 children born on an average from one woman (Table
5). T h a t fine coherence was quite satisfactory at first sight; as a matter of fact, it only
expresses a rather disquieting reality. First, when a site deviates appreciably from that
picture, we react, to a certain extent, as follows: instead of blaming our estimators, we
put the blame (rightly as often as not) on a selection of the buried based on criteria
related to age. W h a t then of the knowledge of demography proper? And finally, w h a t
is more serious, this uniformity is too reminiscent of what happens to paleodemographers who still rely on age indicators: just as they superimpose on their cemetery
populations the age structure of their reference population, we superimpose on the
ancient populations the age structure of our 40 historical populations. Although less
open to criticism, this procedure is of a similar nature; we come across the same thing
over and over again. Indeed, starting from historical demography, we have disclosed
the systematic errors; but when we try to avoid them, we are brought back, as though
by a pendulum effect, to historical demography. There is no way out.

4. A Few T h i n g s we k n o w about P a l e o d e m o g r a p h y
Save unforeseen developments--unpredictable in the near future at least--it would be
futile to expect to have a working knowledge of the demography of ancient populations
if we start only from the estimations of ages at death. The scholars who persist in this
course will only obtain artefacts; the information conveyed by the age indicators is so
poor that the age distributions thus available can hardly reflect anything but r a n d o m
fluctuations and errors of method.
Does that mean that nothing can be said about the demography of ancient populations? scarcely anything positive indeed: we can only state what they were not. Early
mortality of adults, over-mortality of women, lack of old people in those populations,
whether prehistoric or medieval: all these hackneyed notions were born from the
misinterpretation of data. As they are in no way vindicated, we must get rid of them.
T h e only positive contributions to our knowledge of the mortality of prehistoric
populations come from altogether different sources. Sacher pointed out in 1975 that a
strong correlation exists among all placentalia between the brain and body weights on
the one hand, and the age of sexual maturity and the longevity on the other. This
correlation has been ascertained for all Primates including modern Man. Prehistoric
M a n seemed to be an incomprehensible exception to the rule. Let us restore him to his
place. T h e computed figures will be 17-18 for t h e sexual maturity, and 92 years on
average for the life span, when not interrupted by accident; a little higher for Homo
sapiens neanderthalensis, somewhat lower for Homo erectus: 15 and 78 years in the case
of Sinanthropus (Cutler, 1975). Thus it would be well-founded to recognize a single
mortality pattern for all Primates without excluding Hominids (Figure 4).

330

j . - P . BOC~UET-APPEL AND O. MASSET

Figure 4. Average number of deaths per annum for 100 births;

both sexes. (a) Chimpanzees of Gombe Park, Tanzania (Teleki
et al., 1976). (b) The French population during the decade 17401749 (Blayo, 1975). The bigger scale for they-axis is required by the
difference in longevity between apes and human beings.

50

2O

30

I0

20

I0

2O

L\
L.

50

'"

20

50

,-""T"~,:==._.__
,

80

Age

In quite another field, the bulky book dedicated by N. Howell (1979) to the demography of the Dobe !Kung points, for those Bushmen hunters isolated at the far end of
the desert of Kalahari, to a mortality much closer to that of the French country people
of two centuries ago, than to the fabrications of paleodemographers: heavy infant
death rate of about 200 per thousand before the age of l--slight over-mortality of
males--mode of adult mortality after 60 or even 70.
Other aspects of paleodemography that we have hardly touched upon would deserve
further study. One of them is the size of the marriage circles throughout the Paleolithic.
For instance, by simulating, by means of the method of Monte-Carlo, the surviving
process of a small population, with, on the one hand, the male and female probabilities
of death, and on the other, a fertility function (rural French people of the 18th century),
Table 6 shows the behaviour of the demographic parameters per five-year periods within
a century. T h e natural increase rate varies from +0.08 to --0.107; the average age at
death for each period of five years fluctuates from 3 to 92.5 for males and from 0.5 to
87.5 for females. Even if this population seems to increase from 22 to 62 individuals
within a century in the end (176 years) it will die out. An aleatory and unbalanced
sex-ratio makes it impossible for it to survive. Figure 5 shows the age-sex pyramid at

FAREWELL

Table 6

331

TO PALEODEMOGRAPHy

F l u c t u a t i o n s o f v a r i o u s d e m o g r a p h i c p a r a m e t e r s in a s m a l l
p o p u l a t i o n . (The d e a t h a n d f e r t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s a r e i d e n t i c a l to
t h o s e o f t h e E u r o p e a n p e o p l e s o f the 18th c e n t u r y )

Y e a r x q-

Total
number

Sex-ratio

Natural
increase
rate

5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

22
22.5
21.5
21.5
28
25
25
33
34.5
39
46
47
51-5
52.5
63
64
67
64
63-5
62

1.2
1.142
1.047
1-095
1.153
1.083
1
1
0-725
0.950
1.300
1.473
1.060
1-355
1.863
1.666
1.627
1.844
1.886
t.952

0-045
--0.044
0-046
-- 0 . 0 4 5
--0.107
0.040
0.080
--0.060
0.057
0.051
-- 0.043
-- 0.042
0
0.018
0
-- 0.046
--0.014
-- 0 . 0 4 6
--0.031
0

Mean age at death

Males

Females

-87-5
--42.75
62.5
-50.17
--17.5
42.75
82.5
-3
52.5
92.5
28.5
-47.5

-0-5
0.5
87-5
52-5
-----60.17
37.5
3
-77.5
3
16.17
0.5
46.5
77.5

the times x and x -+- 50. The age groups undergo chaotic trends which are liable to
9throw the marriageable generations out of balance, producing for instance an increase
or a drastic lack of young males or females. W h a t can we infer from that? Any group
of a limited size (under a few hundreds) is thratened to die out as a population through
the mechanical action of mere random fluctuations. Such groups, in order to ensure
their steady reproduction, must anastomosate with others by exchanging the excess of
their still unmarried members. I n other words, to overcome the destroying action of
the random fluctuations within a group, migratory moves are absolutely necessary from
F i g u r e 5. F l u c t a t i o n s o f t h e a g e - s e x p y r a m i d o f a s m a l l p o p u l a t i o n
(see T a b l e 6). (a) n = 38.5. (b) T h e s a m e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e y e a r
x Jr 5 0 ; n = 62.

9O
8O !

'70

60 ~
50'
4O
3O
20

,o[

332

J.-P. BOCQUET-APPEI., AND CI. MASSET

one group to the other. It is only b y regulating this inter-group m i g r a t o r y exchange

that the population will be able to survive as a whole. T h e frequency o f extinction of
such small sociological units must have been high during the Pleistocene, not, however,
as a result of natural selection. I n the same w a y that the genetic drift was prevailing in
the gene inheritance of such small h u m a n groups, their d e m o g r a p h i c behaviour was
subjected to considerable r a n d o m fluctuations.
5. C o n c l u s i o n

I n spite of their diversity, such works m a y some day succeed in building up a general
picture of the ancient peoples' mortality, b u t they will never point out to the demographic peculiarities o f this or that h u m a n group.
Does it follow that we should give up estimating the ages at death of the skeletons we
are entrusted with? T h a t would be going too far. I t is not the information provided by
the age indicators which is dangerous; it is the fruitless need to m a k e t h e m say more
t h a n they can. Limited as it is, the information they give is valuable, b u t from an
ethnical, not a demographic point o f view (see for instance Masset, 1976, a, b). It could
not possibly be uninteresting to see most skeletons from one graveyard gather in the
youngest age class, or in the o l d e s t - - p r o v i d e d that the age determination be without
bias. Likewise, it c a n n o t be immaterial to note that death a p p a r e n t l y prefers one sex to
the other. Such information can prove highly valuable for the archaeologist, w h o is
most capable of using it. I t could give him, for instance, some insight into a funerary
ritual.
W e remain convinced of the usefulness of thoroughly investigating the skeletons of
m a n of former times to extract from t h e m all possible information. W e only bid farewell
to paleodemography.

W e thank the referees for valuable criticism of an earlier draft.

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