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School of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
Department of Social Pharmacy, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
Kuopio Research Centre of Geriatric Care, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
Department of Pharmacy Practice, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait
Department of Pharmacology, Drug Development and Therapeutics, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland
Leppavirta Health Centre, Leppavirta, Finland
Abstract
Background: Increased use of drugs has raised concern about the risks of
polypharmacy in elderly populations. Adverse outcomes, such as hospitalizations and falls, have been shown to be associated with polypharmacy. So
far, little information is available on the association between polypharmacy
status and mortality.
Objective: To assess whether polypharmacy (six to nine drugs) or excessive
polypharmacy (ten or more drugs) could be indicators of mortality in elderly
persons.
Methods: This was a population-based cohort study conducted between 1998
and 2003 with mortality follow-up through to 2007. The data in this study
were derived from the population-based Kuopio 75+ Study, which involved
elderly persons aged 75 years living in the city of Kuopio, Finland. The
initial sample (sample frame n = 4518, random sample n = 700) was drawn
from the population register. For the purpose of this study, two separate
analyses were carried out. In the first phase, participants (aged 75 years,
n = 601) were followed from 1998 (baseline) to 2002. In the second phase,
survivors (aged 80 years, n = 339) were followed from 2003 to 2007. Current
medications were determined from drug containers and prescriptions during
interviews conducted by a trained nurse. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox
proportional hazards regression were used to examine the association between polypharmacy status and mortality.
Results: In the first phase, 28% (n = 167) belonged to the excessive polypharmacy group, 33% (n = 200) to the polypharmacy group, and the remaining 39% (n = 234) to the non-polypharmacy (05 drugs) group. The
corresponding figures in the second phase were 28% (n = 95), 39% (n = 132)
Jyrkka et al.
1040
and 33% (n = 112), respectively. The mortality rate was 37% in the first phase
and 40% in the second phase. In both phases, the survival curves showed a
significant difference in all-cause mortality between the three polypharmacy
groups. In the first phase, the univariate model showed an association between excessive polypharmacy and mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2.53, 95% CI
1.83, 3.48); however, after adjustment for demographics and other variables
measuring functional and cognitive status, this association did not remain
statistically significant (HR 1.28, 95% CI 0.86, 1.91). In the second phase, the
association between excessive polypharmacy and mortality (HR 2.23, 95% CI
1.21, 4.12) remained significant after adjustments. Age, male sex and dependency according to the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living screening
instrument were associated with mortality in both phases.
Conclusion: This study points to the importance of excessive polypharmacy as
an indicator for mortality in elderly persons. This association needs to be
confirmed following adjustment for co-morbidities.
Background
In recent years, there has been a growing awareness of the risks associated with polypharmacy in
elderly populations.[1,2] Polypharmacy is a well
known risk factor for adverse outcomes such
as hospitalizations[3] and falls,[4] mainly because
elderly persons are more prone to drug-drug interactions, adverse reactions and medical errors in
dosing.[5-7] In addition, polypharmacy may contribute to poor adherence, which may have major
clinical consequences.[8]
Polypharmacy poses a major concern regarding the quality of drug treatment. Recent studies
reported that more than half of elderly persons
using five or more different drugs daily were
taking unnecessary drugs, including drugs without a clear indication, ineffective drugs and drugs
that represent therapeutic duplication.[9,10] Medication problems typically begin when druginduced symptoms are interpreted as a new disease,
leading to prescription of additional drugs.[11] On
the other hand, there are also reports of untreated
conditions in elderly persons.[12] Finding the right
balance between benefits and harms determines
the quality of overall treatment.
Information about the relationship between
polypharmacy status and mortality is scarce.
Some previous studies have shown weak asso 2009 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved.
The outcome of interest in this prospective cohort study was death over a 5-year period, measured in two separate survival analyses. In the first
phase, an analysis was carried out in 601 elderly
participants who were aged 75 years at the beginning of follow-up. Their survival was monitored
from 1998 to 2002. In the second phase, the analysis included 339 survivors aged 80 years at the
time of re-examinations in 2003. Their survival was
monitored between 2003 and 2007.
Ascertainment of Mortality
1041
In this study, drugs and vitamins taken regularly or on an as-needed basis, excluding herbal
remedies, were counted as drugs. Polypharmacy
status was determined by dividing the participants
into three groups based on the number of drugs in
use. In this classification, excessive polypharmacy
was defined as use of ten or more drugs concomitantly; polypharmacy was defined as use of
six to nine drugs. The non-polypharmacy group
included persons using five or fewer drugs concomitantly. These cut-off points were chosen based
on previous studies and current treatment patterns
of elderly populations. Although there is as yet no
consensus or commonly used cut-off point for excessive polypharmacy, ten or more drugs has been
used to define excessive polypharmacy in recent
studies.[18,19] To define polypharmacy, earlier studies have mostly used four or five drugs as a cut-off
point.[12,20-22] Reflecting the expanding opportunities for drug treatment of elderly persons, we
chose a higher cut-off point for polypharmacy.
Inclusion of nonprescription drugs and vitamins in
our study justified this decision; in contrast, several
other studies have taken into account only prescribed drugs.[23-26]
Residential status was determined on the basis
of living conditions at the time of examination.
Home living status was coded for those subjects
living in their own home or in sheltered accommodation. Institutional care included nursing
Drugs Aging 2009; 26 (12)
Jyrkka et al.
1042
Descriptive statistics are expressed as proportions and means with standard deviations.
When comparing the distributions of categorical
variables across polypharmacy groups, crosstabulations were used, and the differences were
tested using the chi-squared (w2) test. For continuous variables, the statistical significance
in means was determined by ANOVA with the
post hoc Tukey test.
The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival in the three groups. Furthermore,
the statistical significance of differences between
survival curves was assessed with the log-rank
test. The analysis of indicators for mortality was
performed using the Cox proportional hazards
model to calculate crude and adjusted hazard
2009 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved.
1998 (n = 601)
2003 (n = 339)
polypharmacy
(n = 200)
excessive
polypharmacy
(n = 167)
162 (69)
150 (75)
133 (80)
79 (70)
94 (71)
81 (85)
72 (31)
50 (25)
34 (20)
33 (30)
38 (29)
14 (15)
80.6 (4.2)
81.4 (4.6)
83.3 (4.8)
84.1 (3.7)
84.9 (3.5)
86.0 (4.2)
Sex [n (%)]
women
men
p-valuea
nonpolypharmacy
(n = 234)
nonpolypharmacy
(n = 112)
excessive
polypharmacy
(n = 95)
0.060
<0.001
113 (48)
81 (41)
41 (25)
8084
77 (33)
66 (33)
55 (33)
70 (63)
63 (48)
38 (40)
85
44 (19)
53 (26)
71 (42)
42 (37)
69 (52)
57 (60)
227 (97)
177 (89)
119 (71)
109 (97)
119 (90)
61 (64)
7 (3)
23 (11)
48 (29)
3 (3)
13 (10)
34 (36)
good
108 (48)
60 (32)
28 (19)
67 (63)
58 (50)
22 (28)
moderate
101 (44)
91 (49)
69 (46)
30 (28)
42 (36)
32 (41)
19 (8)
35 (19)
52 (35)
9 (9)
17 (14)
24 (31)
161 (69)
112 (56)
70 (42)
85 (81)
90 (74)
42 (52)
73 (31)
88 (44)
97 (58)
20 (19)
32 (26)
39 (48)
156 (67)
104 (53)
52 (32)
74 (66)
58 (44)
16 (17)
75 (33)
93 (47)
112 (68)
38 (34)
73 (56)
77 (83)
home
institution
<0.001
poor
normal
impaired
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
p-Values for categorical variables were measured with a chi-squared (w2) test and for continuous variables with ANOVA.
1043
difficulties
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
0.001
0.004
7579
p-valuea
0.023
<0.001
polypharmacy
(n = 132)
Table I. Characteristics of the study population in 1998 (aged 75 years) and in 2003 (aged 80 years) according to polypharmacy status
Characteristic
Jyrkka et al.
1044
05 drugs
69 drugs
10 drugs
b
1.0
0.8
0.8
Cumulative survival
Cumulative survival
a
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
Log-rank p < 0.001
0
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time to death (y)
4.0
5.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time to death (y)
4.0
5.0
Fig. 1. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for excessive polypharmacy (ten or more drugs), polypharmacy (six to nine drugs) and non-polypharmacy (five
or fewer drugs) groups in (a) the first phase (n = 601, aged 75 years) between 1998 and 2002 and (b) the second phase (n = 339, aged 80 years)
between 2003 and 2007.
Discussion
This study found excessive polypharmacy to
be an indicator of 5-year mortality in elderly
persons (aged 80 years) after adjustment for
demographics and variables measuring functional and cognitive status. Of the other factors,
age, male sex and difficulties in IADL were associated with mortality in both phases of the study.
Previous studies concerning polypharmacy and
mortality[13-15] have not differentiated between
polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy; therefore, our results are not directly comparable with
the results of these studies. An American study on
people aged 65 years reported an approximate
30% increased risk of 8-year mortality among
those taking four or more drugs after adjustment
for several demographic, disease status and
functional status variables.[14] A substantially
Drugs Aging 2009; 26 (12)
1045
Table II. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models for elderly participants in 1998 (aged 75 years) and for survivors in
2003 (aged 80 years)
Characteristic
1998
2003
univariate
HR (95% CI) [n = 601]
multivariate
HR (95% CI) [n = 556]
univariate
HR (95% CI) [n = 339]
multivariate
HR (95% CI) [n = 289]
05
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
69
10
women
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
men
Age (y)
home
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
institution
good
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
moderate
poor
normal
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
impaired
independent
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Sex
Residential status
Cognitive statusb
Functional statusc
HR = hazard ratio.
Jyrkka et al.
1046
mortality over a 5-year period in elderly populations. In future studies, this observed association
needs to be verified by adjusting for co-morbidities.
More research is also needed on the role of unnecessary medications in the association between
mortality and polypharmacy status in elderly
persons.
Acknowledgements
The Kuopio 75+ Study was financially supported by the
Nordic Red Feather of the Lions. The authors also express
their gratitude to the Kuopio University Pharmacy Fund and
the Social Insurance of Finland for offering financial support
to data analysis. In addition, the study was supported by
grants from the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation, the
Orion-Farmos Research Foundation and the Finnish Cultural Foundation. The funders had no role in the design of the
Kuopio 75+ Study or the preparation of this article.
The authors wish to thank statistician Piia Lavikainen for
her kind advice regarding this article. We are also grateful to
Ms Paivi Heikura for her role in maintaining and updating the
Kuopio 75+ database.
The authors have no conflicts of interest that are directly
relevant to the content of this study.
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