Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

1/13/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
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IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

January 15:
January 19:
January 21:
January 22:
January 25:
January 26:
January 27:
January 28:

Corn:

NOPA Crush at 11:00am Ted speaking on US Farm Report

Export Inspections at 10:00am
Ted live at the CME and RFD TV at 9:45am
Export Sales at 7:30am Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Export Inspections at 10:00am
FOMC Meeting
FOMC Meeting
Export Sales at 7:30am Last Trade Day Jan Feeders

down 0-2

Wheat:

down 1-3

Beans:

down 5-8

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:

down .500

Crude:

down 1.50

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

456-0 on
01/04/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 360-3

20 Day MA 471-5

20 Day MA 872-2

50 Day MA 368-2

50 Day MA 484-0

50 Day MA 873-0

100 Day MA 379-6

100 Day MA 494-5

100 Day
MA

881-2

Corn: ---Night Session Close: March down 06 at 3572 Dec down 10 at 3810
Opening the night session at 3580, March traded to a session low of 3560. Moving average support starts with the 10 day at 3552. The recent low of 3494 may offer additional support
above the standing contract low of 3484. Trading to a session high of 3594, the 20 day moving average offers up initial resistance at 3604. Additional resistance may be found in the
362-364 region as well, while the 50 day moving average stands at 3682.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: March down 70 at 8752 Nov down 62 at 8840
Opening the night session at 8822, March traded to a session low of 8750. Down trend line support stands at 8762 and at 8722. Moving average support is clustering with the 10, 20,
and 50 day at 8682, 8722, and 8730; respectively. The recent 5 day low stands at 8572. Trading to a session high of 8826, resistance is likely from yesterdays session high of 8844
and followed by the Dec 21 high of 8970.
Wheat: ---Night Session Close: March down 22 at 4664 Sept down 22 at 4870
Opening the night session at 4686, March traded down to a support and set a session low at 4654. Further support from the recent and standing 5 day low comes in at 4624 and
followed by the contract low of 4560. Posting a session high of 4704, the 472 area may offer initial resistance as well as the 20 day moving average at 4716. The 480 region will likely

offer further resistance in addition to down trend line resistance at 4794.

News:
--- Markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and will resume Monday night.
--- NOPA crush released at 11:00am. Average trade estimate is 157.8 million bushels with a range of 153.7-161 vs 156.1 last month and 165.4 last year. Soyoil stock is estimated at
1.529 billion pounds with a range of 1.520-1.550 vs 1.477 in Nov and 1.068 last year.
--- Brazil meat producers have warned that increased export corn sales may create domestic shortages for feedstock and lead to the need for imports.
--- Argentina corn planting is estimated to be 89% complete vs 88% last year and soybean planting is estimated to be 97% complete vs 97% last year.
--- Major ethanol producer Poet has announced expansion projects for several locations amounting to an annual increase of 25 million gallons.
--- Argentinas Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased the domestic corn crop size to 23.8 million tons vs 20.2 previously. They also see 3.1 million hectares of commercial use corn
being planted vs 2.85 million hectares previously.
--- Chinese stocks sold off again last night after recovering the previous day. Selling pressure is spilling over into US markets as stocks are sharply lower.

--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

74.250 on
01/15/15

52 Week
Low

121.975 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

143.200 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

53.975 on
11/17/15

20 Day MA 132.715

20 Day MA 160.280

20 Day MA 59.193

50 Day MA 132.115

50 Day MA 161.583

50 Day MA 58.535

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

136.577

171.631

63.114

Due to a technical glitch yesterday, the newsletter failed to go out so putting out Wednesdays and Thursdays news this morn.
Want both because we have been cautioning the bullish sentiment and are currently down $2.50 in the trade..
Wednesday:
The cattle market has taken pause here as cash sales look steady week on week and cutouts have stopped dead in their tracks the last two days.
There was a small smattering of $134 traded in Nebraska yesterday. Early week trade many times equates to someone short bought on needs. In this case, they did not need to pay

higher prices to obtain needs. Talk is of steady cash again this week as bids are holding at $133 with offers at $135/$136.
The Choice cutout was on a tear running from $191 up to current $235 in just a few short weeks, but has found reason to slow down and catch its breath these last couple days. This has
been an awfully attractive recovery after sliding from $265 to $190 (23% off of December lows). A retracement of this caliber is a rarity and has many seeking out protection now as
margins have improved. Wednesdays midday boxed beef: choice up 35 cents to $235.53.
The aforementioned cutouts and cash have led to the futures prices also taking pause. The board seems content as we await fresh news. Those bullish should be exercising caution here
as we have perhaps topped out. The competing meats are far cheaper at the meat case and this sharp run higher doesnt buy good domestic demand. High dollar is not constructive to
foreign demand.
For the monthly update from the USDA, 2016 beef production was revised down by 75 million pounds, imports revised down by 100 million and exports revised higher by 50 million. The
225 million pounds of less beef available to the market compares with weekly beef production near 450 million pounds.
Markets short-term trend was negative on close below 9-day moving average.

Thursday:
Cattle markets were heavy on Thursday as cutouts again remain at $235 and cash has been steady.
Cash trade of $134 is putting the bulls on their heels and some of those longs have been covering positions as there is nice profit to be had. Of course the late comers who got long just
as we reversed course here are the first ones squeezed out (AKA, weak longs) and this helps push to the downside. Not looking for any more bump on cash as board is down $1.60 here
today.
Cutouts remain steady as tepid demand (at best) and an overdone run higher have perhaps played out for now. As stated here yesterday, market taking pause here awaiting any news to
push higher/lower.
At our lows today, the gaps left below in feeder and fat cattle from December 18 to the 21st were actually in view. Crazy to have the gaps back in the picture after the nice run higher. The
technical crowd could have a max exodus of longs if gap is entered/filled.
Futures prices have moved from the large premiums only a few weeks ago to discounts. Discounts encourage selling now rather than later and feeders are following their instincts by
marketing cattle when they get a chance.
Feeder Index down 1.42 to 162.62 on Thursday.

Even in weeks of lower kill numbers we have seen overall production remain somewhat strong due to heavy weights. Same old, same old there. Cheap feed and holding onto animals
longer because of price dip has added the LBS
U.S. Dollar remains strong which remains deterrent to picking up exports even as USDA projects uptick in exports for 2016.
Short-term trend remains negative.
Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us at
312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.