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Operating (29)
Considering / Building (43)
Expressing interest (24)
| 1
Future growth is uneven among geographies with Asia accounting for the
majority stake
GW (new capacity till 2030)
43
14
195
12
195
68
0
4
127
(China)
43
North
America
14
4
Western
Latin
Europe
America,
mainly Brazil
12
0
Africa
Russia,
CIS, and
Eastern
Europe
Middle East
Asia
| 2
Decarbonization
Western
Europe
Canada
Competing
technologies
USA
Brazil
Denmark
India
Turkey
China
Comments
China
USA
Energy
diversification
Nuclear suppliers
Russia
China
S. Korea
France
| 3
DECARBONIZATION
Current situation
Comments
New capacity
43
14
12
195
0
4
SOURCE: IEA; Eurostat; Platts; EIA; McKinsey analysis; WNA; press search; McKinsey EPNG LCOE model
| 4
COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES
Comments
prices
Limited
appetite to
finance and
guarantee large
nuclear
projects
Modest
increase in
demand for
energy
EXAMPLE 1
1 Carbon-Capture-and-Storage (CCS)
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Energy Perspective, McKinsey analysis
| 5
COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES
Comments
Significant
increase in
demand for
energy
Onshore wind
has huge
potential
Huge existing
hydro
facilities in
Brazil and
significant
potential for
small hydro
plants
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Energy Perspective; Atlas Elico Nacional; BNDES; ANEEL; BTM Consult; McKinsey
Analysis; WNA; Aneel, imprensa, anlise da equipe
| 6
PRELIMINARY
xx
Power demand
TWh
GW
GW
3,610
7.1% p.a.
410
181
410
87
40
48
75
Others
450
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
63
1,870
3%
295
1,207
971
6%
~700
700
6.8% p.a.
CAGR
176
17
18 5
41
176
35
65
257
82
2010
2015
2020
2030
2010
2015
2020
2030
2010
2020
Significant growth in demand for energy in India requires more stable energy
sources which are less price volatile
There is great opportunity for development of nuclear energy, which has seen a
slowdown in recent years
SOURCE: Powering India: The Road to 2017, Global Data, EPS Estimates, McKinsey analysis
2030
| 7
DIVERSIFICATION
2,090 2,637
53 Coal
60
17
69
Hydro
Generation mix
TWh
100% = 4,229 8,433 11,398
64 Coal
67
78
3
1
3
1
5
3
10
4
13
5
4
Hydro
Gas
11
17
19
22
CAGR
2010-30
Percent
Gas
10
Nuclear
13
13
5
Wind
Other
alternative1
6
16
14
13
13
Nuclear
Wind
15
Other
alternative1 11
6
2
2 1
1
5
2
| 8
NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS
and their
governments!
10
Fuel cost
O&M cost
Capital cost
Financing cost
17
46
70%
of the
cost is
capex
17
| 9
NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS
Safety level
Strategic
aspects
| 10
Fuel cost
Capital cost
O&M cost
Financing cost
Basic assumptions
90
WACC: 9%
10
Areas
17
Construction: ~6 years
13
WACC
12
CAPEX
+1.5% (abs)
Financing
+20%
Project
management
-10% (abs)
Operations
excellence
+3 years
Project
management
-15 years
Regulatory
Operations
excellence
Sourcing
Sourcing
Lifetime: 40 years
Thermal efficiency: 35%
10
Load factor
46
Construction
time
Lifetime
3
O&M
+20%
17
Fuel
LCOE
(USD/MWh)
+20%
Scenarios are non-additive
| 11