Eic 2015-Q3

Outlook
Quarter 3/2015
2015
In focus:
In focus:
Special issues:
Local Government Debt-Swap Program

4
GDP
.
.
.
.

3/2015
% 2015
3.0

1.5%
GDP 2014 2015

: %YOY
2014
3.0
0.9
9.1
2015F
0.6
1.5
1.4
Fed
34-35 /
2015
-1.5
-0.4
-4.9
GDP
2015 1.5%
3.0
-2.0
1.7
28.8
MERS
ICAO
1.25%
1
2

3
: EIC CEIC, ., .
2015
0.1%

2015
2016
37
Bull - Bear:
38
In focus:
42
In focus:
58
Summary of main forecasts
71
Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)
2015
3.0%
2015
4.2% 5

1.4 %

1.5%

1.25%

(Fed)

(Emerging Economies: EM)

3/2015
2015
2015

Fed
3

ECB 2%

2
6.8%

2015
1
2015
: %YOY
2014
2015F
7.4
2.4
6.8
2.2
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.0
: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America) EIC
2

3 0.2%QOQ SAAR1

2 51.5
52.8 2
280,000 119,000
221,000 ( 4)
2.3%YOY 2%YOY ( 5)
2.2%
3% 1)
(Fed)
2)
(Beige Book)

2015 ( 7)
2 1.2%

3%QOQ SAAR 2.2%
Fed Fed funds rate 2015 Fed
5.0-5.2% Fed
200,000 2015
5.2% 5.0% ( 6)
12 254,000
2% 60

0.1% Fed
(Quarter on Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)
3/2015
2
0.2%
(Real GDP)
(ISM Manufacturing)
:
80
70
2.2
(REER) ()
: (2010 = 100)
80
100
40
110
30
120
20
130
-8
10
140
-10
-0.2
()
2015
2014
2013
2012
2015
5.0
2014
5.5
2015
7
:
160
EIC
140
6.5
120
6.0
100
80
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
20
2008
4.0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
40
2007
60
4.5
2006
5.0-5.2%
2005
5.0
2004
5.2
2003
5.0
6.0
2.3
2013
119
6.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2012
280 7.0
221
: %YOY
2011
7.5
6 5.2%
5.0%
5.5
-60
2010
8.0
()
:
7.0
(average hourly earnings)
: %
()
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
: MOM SA
-40
2009
2010
2009
2008
2011
()
-6
-30
2008
-4
-20
2007
-2
-10
90
60
52.8
50
:
0
()
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
: %QOQ SAAR
: EIC Bloomberg, CEIC, Federal Reserve Economic Data, U.S. Commerce Department
Bureau of Economic Analysis
-70
2015 0.4%QOQ SA
0.9% 0.6% 2
0.3% 2
0.3% 0.7% ( 9) 2
1.5%YOY
0.4%YOY 11.1% 3
5 0.3%YOY ( 10)
(QE)
(ECB) 7.7% 2015
( 11)
1.5%
ECB 60 QE 2016
1.0 2015 1.128

26 5
7.2
30 27
28 ECB (Emergency Liquidity
Assistant: ELA)
IMF 1.6 30

ECB ELA

ELA

(Drachma)

(Hyperinflation)
3/2015
0.4%QOQSA
8
(Real GDP) (PMI)

: %QOQ SA
()
()
0.4
()
12
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1-0.1
11
: % SA
25
20
1.10
15
1.20
10
1.30
5
0
1.40
IMF ECB
13 2015
10.2
:
8
6.9
7
6
5
IMF
2.4
2.9
3.5
1
0
5.6
3
2
ECB
3.0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
: % SA
()
ECB QE
1.00
()
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.1 11.0
10.5
10.0
0.3 9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
0.9
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
10
: %
1Q2015
0.6
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
()
4Q2014
0.7
40
: %YOY SA
3Q2014
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
4Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2012
45
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2Q2014
50
10
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
: %QOQ SA
60
55
1Q2012
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
(Real GDP)
0.4
Jul-15
3.2
1.4
1.5
Aug-15
Sep-15
1.8
1.4
0.4
Oct-15
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.2
Nov-15
Dec-15
: EIC Bloomberg, CEIC, Wall Street Journal

9
2015
3.9%QOQ SAAR 1.2% (sales
tax) ( 14)

50.9 51.5 10.4%QOQ SAAR
6.4%QOQ SAAR 0.4%QOQ SAAR
4 2014 ( 15)
7.9%QOQ SAAR
GDP
1.5%QOQ SAAR 4 2014
2015 4.9YOY
( 16)
3.4%QOQ SAAR 9.5%

QQE
( 17)
8.0%YOY 8.5%YOY
20%YOY 5 14%YOY
2%YOY

0.7%YOY 0.5%YOY

2015 ()

2.6%
3.3% (Jobs
to Applicants ratio) 1.17 ( 117
100 ) 1.05 2014

1%
2015

(wealth effect)

10
3/2015

14

2015
15

: % QOQ SAAR
25
GDP
()
20
30
56
20
54
10
15
10
4.4
5
0
-5
3.9
1.2
-0.9
50.9
-2.0
48
-15
46
-20
-25
52
50
-6.8
-10
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
44
2Q2015
16
: % QOQ SAAR
:
58
0.4
6.4 7.9 6.6
2.0
-2.5
-10
-20
-30
-40
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015

17
: % QOQ SAAR
: 3
80
60
()
125
6,600
40
20
9.5
115
6,200
3.4 3.3 1.4
0.5 2.0
5,800
105
5,400
95
-20
-40
-60
5,000
1Q2015
19
()
0.80
38
-0.20
37
-1.20
-2.20
-3.20
-4.20
Apr-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
34
Mar-14
-0.60
Jan-14
35
Feb-14
-0.40
Mar-15
36
Jan-15
-0.20
39
Feb-15
0.00
1.80
Dec-14
0.20
Oct-14
40
0.40
2.80
Nov-14
41
0.60
: %YOY
Sep-14
42
Jul-14
()
Aug-14
Jun-14
: %YOY
0.80
85
Apr-14
4Q2014
May-14
3Q2014
Feb-14
18
2Q2014
Mar-14
1Q2014
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Jan-14
-80
: EIC CEIC
11
2 (Peoples Bank of
China: PBOC) 50 bps 12
4.85% 12 2.00%
(Targeted RRR) 50bps
(Manufacturing PMI)
50.1 1 49.9 ( 20)
5 11.4%YOY 1 13.5%YOY
( 21) 10.0%YOY 10.5%YOY 2 2 16.9%YOY
( 22) 2
4.5%YOY ( 23)
PBOC
6.8%

(municipal bonds) LGFVs (Local Government Financing Vehicles)
( BOX: Local government-debt Swap program)

2014 9%YOY 14%YOY 2013

( 24)
2015 7.0%
PBOC
PBOC
RRR RRR 17.5%-18.5% 10 5
1.3% 3% ( 25) PBOC
SLF (Standing Lending Facility)
1-3
PSL (Pledge Supplementary Lending) SLF 1
1 PBOC PSL 132 CDB (China Development Bank)
CDB
2 450
430 2015
12
3/2015
21
22
16.9%YOY
20
15
10
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
: %YOY
: %YOY
40.0
()
14.0
Q1-2015
10.0
12.0
0.0
11.0
-10.0
-20.0
9.0
-30.0
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
10.0
.. 15
..15
15
20.0
13.0
-6
-3
-7
-9 -9
-7
-13
-8
5
25 1.3%
: %
: %YOY 3mma
3.5
24
22
20
2.5
18
2015
3.0%
16
1.5
14
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
0.5
Mar-13
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
11.0
Jan-13
12
10
25
30.0
24
: %YOY
23 -
15.0
Mar-14
51.0
50.5
50.0
49.5
49.0
48.5
30
Nov-13
52.0
2015
51.5
7.0%
: %YOY 3
Jul-13
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
2014 7.5%
Sep-13
2013 7.5%
()
Mar-13
: %YOY
(Real GDP)
May-13
(Real GDP) (PMI)
Jan-13
20
: EIC CEIC
13
BOX: Local Government Debt-Swap

Program
local government debt-swap

(municipal bonds)

LGFVs
PBOC
debt-swap program
(Quantitative Easing: QE)

PBOC

(private placement)
(public placement) PBOC

3 PSL
1)

2)
: EIC Bank of America
14
1
2
debt-swap program
10 /
236
58
178

PBOC

PBOC
RRR
3/2015
2015
( 26)

( 27)

12%

2015
2015 2014

CLMV

CLMV

Fed
2015
(emerging markets)

13% 12% 2014

7%

15
2015
26
27
: % YOY 3
: %MOM 3
56
PMI
PMI
54
120
115
Apr-15
May-15
: .. 2013 = 100
140
135
105
100
95
: EIC CEIC
Apr-15
130
125
50
120
115
110
46
105
44
100
95
2015 4
31
3Q2014
14.0
4Q2014
4.0
1Q2015
8.6
9.0
110
16
: %QOQ SA
: .. 2013 = 100
125
Mar-15
Jan-15
CLMV
130
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
CLMV

29
2014
52
48
30
Mar-15
28

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Jan-15
-0.5
Feb-15
0.0
Dec-14
0.6
0.5
1.2
0.8
Nov-14
1.2
0.9
1.0
Oct-14
1.3
Sep-14
1.5
Jul-14
1.8
Aug-14
2.0
Jun-14
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2.1
May-14
1Q2015
Apr-14
4Q2014
Mar-14
2.5
3Q2014
Jan-14
2Q2014
Feb-14
: %QOQ SA
3.0
4.4
4.7
2.1
0.2
0.2
-1.0
-4.0
-6.0
-5.4
-7.0
-11.0
-16.0
-10.6
-15.3
-12.9
CLMV
3/2015
3.0% 2015

4.2% 5
1.4 %
6

1.5%

1.25%
GDP
32
2015
GDP 2014 2015
: %YOY
2014
3.0
0.9
0.6
1.5
1.4
9.1
2015 (F)
1.7
3.0
-0.4
-2.0
-1.5
-4.9
GDP
*
: EIC
17
BOX: 4
GDP
CVM)
(.) GDP-CVM
GDP 1 2558
2558 Real GDP
GDP . ?
. Real GDP
CVM GDP
(Nominal GDP)
GDP
(GDPChain Volume Measures: GDP-CVM)
1

Real GDP 1988

GDP

3 (Chain Volume measures:
18
GDP
GDP GDP 2557
12.1 GDP
13.1
5,445
6,038 .

(Non-Banks)

GDP
GDP GDP
2557 85.9% GDP
79.4% GDP GDP
46.2% 42.8% 2558
2557 3.5% 3.3%
GDP4

Laspeyres P n-1Q n *100 P , Q , n , n-1

n-1 n-1
GDP-CVM n
3
http://www.nesdb.go.th
(QGDP-CVM) .. .
4
. 2558 2558 18 2558
3/2015

GDP
56% GDP 62% GDP
( 33)
33
12%
10%
33%
28%
56%
62%
CVM
100%
: EIC .
34
Real GDP
GDP-CVM
GDP CVM
: %YOY
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
CVM
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP-CVM
Real GDP
GDP-CVM Real GDP

( 34)
: EIC .
19
1 2
2.4%YOY 1 2.1%YOY 4 2014
(QOQSA) 1 0.6%QOQSA
1.3%QOQSA 4 ( 35)
2.3%QOQSA 2
( 36)
( 37)
( 38)

1.4%
35
2015

13% 2014 ( 39)

1,000 15,000
4% 1-7 2014
22,000 0.2% GDP
1.4% 2016
2.0%
20
3/2015
35
1
36
37
: Jan-13 = 100 ()
103
-
- ()
102
0.6
120
101
110
100
100
99
90
98
80
97
70
3 ()
()
20
60
94
50
38
: %YOY
25
95
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
96
2Q2013
1Q2013
: %QOQSA
3
2
2
1
1
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
: %YOY
200
:
50
160
:
()
()
90
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
60
Jan-13
20
Mar-13
65
-80
Mar-15
25
-10
May-15
70
-40
Jan-15
30
-5
Nov-14
75
Sep-14
35
Jul-14
40
May-14
Jan-14
80
Mar-14
40
Sep-13
80
Nov-13
10
Jul-13
85
May-13
45
Jan-13
120
Mar-13
15
39
2015
(RSS3)
:
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
: EIC
Bloomberg
21
2 3.6%YOY
0.5% QOQSA 2015 3.4%QOQSA ( 40)
80% 4.1%YOY (1.3%QOQSA)
11%YOY
1.8%YOY (-1.7%QOQSA) 2

( 41)
1.5%
1.7%YOY 5.3%YOY
60%

( 42)
58.2 () 60.9 1
43.1 ( 42)
Samsung LG

(BOI)
5 1,094 3.9
680% 63
2.3

2013 ( 43)
84% 3 4.8 BOI
1 1.8%YOY
1.7%QOQSA

22
3/2015
40
1
41
: %QOQSA
6
: Jan-13 = 100 ()
110
0.5
100
-2
-4
90
70
42
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
80
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
-6
-8
120
Apr-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
> 60%
Apr-13
65
60
55
50
45
40
Jan-13
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Apr-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
55
Jan-13
60
30-60%
Jul-13
65
90
80
70
60
50
40
Apr-13
< 30%
Jan-13
70
43
2013
2014
2015
12
16
2014
2015
14
10
12
10
-2
2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-4
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
14
Note: < 30% , , , ,

30-60% , , ,
> 60% , ,
: EIC
23
2 2015
72% 39.3%
4.8

2015 2015 3%
2015
2015 3
2015 ( )
1. NGV 2. (
) 3. 2 ()
4. 5. 3
6.
8
2016 2015 9.1%
2015 80%
2016 2015
2016 ... 2016 (.)
3.9 3% GDP
2.7 5.4 20%
2015 90,000
1.2
2016

24
3/2015
44
80%
2014
2015
64.7%
100%
80%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
60%
: EIC
2014
2015
39.3%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
100%
: EIC
25
-
5 4.2%YOY

15% 24.7%YOY 15.7%YOY
5
5 31.2%YOY
(GSP)
12.4%YOY
Samsung LG
1% 11%YOY
5 1.6%YOY ( 45)
5
( 46) 5 5.2%YOY
9.5%YOY
30%YOY CLMV ( )
5 59%YOY
CLMV 22.7%YOY
5 5.4%YOY 5
48%YOY 8.2%YOY ( 47)
5 9.4%YOY
28.7%YOY 55.1%YOY 5
9.4%YOY
5 1.7%YOY
5 3,322.7 ( 48)
2015 1.5%YOY
5
1.6%YOY 0.7%YOY

Samsung LG

(
In focus: )

26
3/2015
5
45
4.2%YOY
-
: %YOY
2014
2015 (..-..)
(5%)
-11.2
-24.7
(10%)
2.1
-15.7
(1%)
(4%)
-0.4
-4.2
-3.2
-31.2
23.0
-26.9
-10.3
-12.4
(2%)
(10%)
-1.6
(8%)
-0.7
2.5
3.2
() =
: EIC
46
-
: %YOY
2014
(10%)
(3%)
2015 (..-..)
0.6
5.2
4.2
5.4
(1%)
4.2
6.3
() =
: EIC
27
47
8.2%YOY
-
: %YOY
2014
5.0
4.2
-4.2
2015 (..-..)
4.1
-1.9
-7.1
-7.9
-8.2
-4.2
0.2
CLMV
7.4
9.0
: EIC
5
48
9.4%YOY
: 3 Jan 13= 100

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
: EIC
28
3/2015
5 12.4 24.7%YOY
2 3
5 3.3 95.7%YOY
1.4 54.1%YOY 5.7 15.0%YOY
( 49)
- 5.9 27.1% ( 50)

192.3 17.7%
28.8 15.4%YOY

MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)
MERS
MERS
2003 SARS 2003
7% (ICAO)
ICAO (Significant Safety Concern: SSC)

ICAO
49 5
24.7%YOY
50
: 3 (Jan 13= 100)
: %YOY
200
31
33
180
160
19
22
15
140
120
100
80
-5
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
May-13
40
Jan-13
60
2013
2014
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
: EIC
29
2015 25
27

30.4 28.8
7.5%YOY
1

9.2
21
2009

51
:
25.0
13.1
30.4
%YOY
24.6
2.1
-13.5
-14.6
2014
2015F
: EIC
30
9.2
2014
2015F
-8.6
-28.6
-6.0
15.4
3/2015
5
( 52) 1.04%YOY 1.27%YOY
5
14%YOY
16%YOY 2014 95
50 35-36
() 19.39
3
1%YOY
( 53)
1.3%YOY 1%YOY

1.2%YOY

(MOM SA) 0.04%
2015 0.1% 1.1%

3 4 ( bull-bear: )
2015 3
- 2014
31
5
52
: %
2.5
2.16
2.09
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.48
1.26
1.0
0.60
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.41
-1.0
-0.52
-0.57
-1.04
-1.5
-1.27
-2.0
-2.5
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
: EIC
53
: %
3
2
1.75
1.71
1.81
1.83
1.73
1.67
1.60
1.69
1.64
1.45
2
1.21
1.12
0.95
1.31
1.02
0.75
0.94
0.47
0.37
0.55
0.56
1
0.48
0
0.50
0.56
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
: EIC
32
0.52
3/2015
(.) 1.50% 10

.

33.7
( 54)
1.25% .

(Policy space) .

.
54
120
115
110
105
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
95
Oct-14
100
Current
: Oct-14 = 100
: EIC Bloomberg
33
33.4 33.9 .
1.50% . .
.
2015 34-35
Fed Fed
Fed

Emerging market
33.4 33.9
55
.
(USD-THB)
:
USD-THB
34.5
34.0
33.5
33.0
32.5
33.7
16 .. 2015
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
: EIC Bloomberg
34
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
3/2015

6
1.0 1.05 2015
56
:
1.45
:
EUR-USD
1.40
46
EUR-THB
44
1.35
1.12
16 .. 2015
1.30
42
1.25
40
1.20
38
1.15
36
1.10
1.05
1.00
Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
34
32
: EIC Bloomberg
35
120
123 - 124
(QQE) 80 2016
2015 125 127
57
:
130
:
USD-JPY
4.0
THB-JPY
125
3.8
120
3.6
115
110
123
16 .. 2015
105
100
95
3.2
90
Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
: EIC Bloomberg
36
3.4
3.0
2.8
3/2015
2016
2016
2.2%YOY 2015 2.8%YOY 2016 2015

(QE) 2016
Fed
2015
US$100

1.5%YOY 2015 2.0%YOY 2016
0.9%YOY 2015 1.6%YOY 2016
2015 6.8%YOY
3.3% 2016
2015
2.0%YOY 3.4%YOY
20.9% 2016 2015 20% 17.5%
2015
13.3%YOY
3.6%YOY 6%YOY
2015
2016 Fed
2016
2016

CLMV (FTA)

37
Bull - Bear:
38
3/2015
BULL-BEAR:
(USD/)
()
2014
2013
2015F
2016F
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3F
Q4F
WTI
98
99
103
98
73
93
48
58
59
61
57
57
52
64
Brent
109
108
110
102
76
99
54
62
63
66
61
62
58
69
: EIC Leading global houses ( 10 2015)
BULLs:

(IS) Ramadi
Baghdad
Ramadi
Ramadi Basrah

IS Ramadi
Basrah

2 OPEC
3.4 11%
OPEC
OPEC
Arab Light: Official Selling Price
(OSP)
2015 0.6
2015

3 8
YOY
2011
SUV 45%YOY

3 8.7%YOY
(18%YOY) (9%YOY)

2015 shale oil shale
gas

(EIA)
9 2015
20 (-4%QOQ) 460

1
59

1.4%QOQ 94.3%

3 2015
39
BEARs:

EIA
3 2015 2.1
YOY 95.7
93.9
1.7
61% NonOPEC 57.5 2.4%YOY
Non-OPEC
50%
OPEC
OPEC 5 2015
30
2020
OPEC
7

1 2.8
2
Non-OPEC

10.5 2020

40
shale oil
60
shale oil

Baker Hughes
shale 29 2015
13 646 ( shale
Eagle Ford 3 )
60%

shale oil
shale oil
shale oil
shale oil 2014
EIA shale oil
Bakken shale oil 10%YOY
shale oil 3
Bakken, Eagle Ford Permian

shale oil 50
shale
oil

3/2015
EIC: Bear
3 2015

2

OPEC

2
shale
shale oil

41
In focus:
(REER)

42

REER

2
REER

(YTD% 2013)
18%
3%
REER 1 2015
(% 2013)
13%
1%
1/2015
(%YOY)
+9% +13%
+7%
-3%
+2%
-5%
REER
REER
REER
2014

Fed
4
4.0%YOY ( 58)
58
: EIC CEIC

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)
REER

REER
1) / 2)
44
3/2015
REER
( 59)
3%
18% 13% 2013
10% ( 60) REER 7%
REER
6.4%
REER
REER 2 REER
( 61)

59
(REER) THBUSD
REER
: .. 2013=100
: % 2013
107
105
REER
THBUSD
103
101
99
12
3
9
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
97
95
REER
: EIC CEIC Bloomberg
45
60
REER
1
(%
2013)
USD =
( 2014)
3%
1.9%
= 10%
EUR = 18%
( 2014)
= 10%
JPY =
13%
= 10%
CNY =
1%
= 12%
USD =
9%
EUR =
14%
= 10%
JPY =
8%
= 13%
CNY =
6%
= 10%
6.4%
USD = 12%
= 9%
3.2%
= 8%
EUR = 11%
= 10%
JPY =
5%
= 11%
CNY =
9%
= 12%
: EIC Bloomberg CEIC
REER
61
REER
: .. 2013 =100
110
105
100
95
90
85
: EIC Bank for International Settlements
46
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
80
Jan-13
REER
3/2015
2
2000-2007
13%YOY 9%YOY 2
0.4%YOY 0.5%YOY ( 62)

62
: %
8.9
13.2
0.5
-0.4
2000-2007
2013-2014
2000-2007
2013-2014
: EIC CEIC
Linear regression analysis ( BOX:

REER )
REER REER

REER
( 63) 2008

( Outlook 3/2014: In focus
)
47
63
: %YOY
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
: EIC IMF
48
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-0.2
2001
-0.15
3/2015
BOX: REER
REER
REER

REER
()
1/2001 1/2015
() CPB world trade

monitor (1)
(1) TH_ExpVol= a + b1 TH_REER + b2 Wd_ImpVol + e

; TH_ExpVol (QOQSA),
TH_REER REER (QOQSA), Wd_ImpVol
(QOQSA)
(1) REER
REER
TH_REER (1)
TH_REER 1 (TH_REER (t-1)) , 2 (TH_REER (t-2)),
3 (TH_REER (t-3)) 4 (TH_REER (t-4))

( 64)
REER

REER REER
( 65)
REER 2 (2)
49
(2) THMY = REERTH /REERMY

; THMY 1
THMY 1
THMY

(3)
(3) TH_ExpVol= a + b1 THMY + b2 Wd_ImpVol + e
; THMY= REER (THMY)
(QOQSA)
THMY 4
(THMY (t-4)) regression THMY
( 66)
REER
64
REER
regression analysis
Dependent Variable:
TH_ExpVol
Coefficient
0.00335
Constant
(0.005)
-0.30581
TH_REER
(0.219)
1.12834
Wd_ImpVol
(0.162)
Adjusted R-squared
0.27464
( )= Standard Error
*** = 1%
50
Significant level
***
TH_ExpVol
-0.0162
TH_REER
0.1763
TH_REER (t-1)
0.1984
TH_REER (t-2)
0.1134
TH_REER (t-3)
-0.1222
TH_REER (t-4)
3/2015
65 REER
REER
REER
: Jan 2001=100
140
130
120
110
100
90

70
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
2014
2015
80
REER
66
THMY
Dependent Variable:
TH_ExpVol
TH_ExpVol
-0.1221
THMY
0.2905
THMY(t-1)
0.1307
THMY(t-2)
0.1887
THMY(t-3)
-0.2589
THMY(t-4)
Coefficient
0.0038
Constant
(0.004)
1.0936
Wd_ImpVol
(0.1675)
-0.2878
THMY
(0.227)
Adjusted R-squared
Significant level
***
0.2794
( )= Standard Error
*** = 1%
: EIC CEIC
51

REER
BOX: REER REER

REER 1) 2)
3)

REER
2010 REER ( 67) REER

REER

REER
67
REER
REER
: 2010=100
120
110
100
90
80
60
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
70
: EIC Bloomberg CEIC
52
3/2015
REER
5 ( 68)
REER
( 69) 3
REER
10.7%YOY 12.6%YOY ( 70)

(Global supply chain)

68
REER

69
REER
REER
REER
: 2010=100
: %QOQSA
140
15
REER
10
5
120
110
100
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
60
-10
May-13
80
Mar-13
-5
90
70
= +17.4%
130
Jan-14
150
REER
: EIC CEIC
53

70
12.6%YOY
REER
: %YOY
REER
REER
10.7
9.9
7.4
0.0
-0.4
2013
12.6
2014
Q12015
: EIC CEIC
REER 2010
( 71) REER
2011 REER
50% REER
REER
REER ( 72)
REER

54
3/2015
REER 2010
71
REER
: 2010=100 3
REER
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
REER
72
REER
: %QOQSA
25
REER
20
15
= -26.1%
10
5
0
-5
-15
06/2010
09/2010
12/2010
03/2011
06/2011
09/2011
12/2011
03/2012
06/2012
09/2012
12/2012
03/2013
06/2013
09/2013
12/2013
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
12/2014
03/2015
-10
: EIC CEIC OAE
55
BOX: REER
2010

i
i
REERit= SUMc Wic [(Et)*(Pth it/Pc it)]
[(E0)*(Pth 0/Pc 0)]
Et = c 1 t Et
c; Pthit = i (
) ; Pcit = i c (Pthit/Pcit)
; Wic = i
c

50%
73
REER

74
56
3/2015
73 REER
%
REER
16%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
2%
3%
59%
27%
14%
11%
11%
11%
9%
9%
4%
4%
100%
74
%
REER
46%
50%
13%
15%
9%
10%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
92%
100%
REER
REER
REER
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
CPI:
CPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
CPI:
CPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI:
PPI
PPI
PPI , CPI
: EIC CEIC, (Lee and Yi, 2005), (Sato et al., 2012),
57
In focus:

(Asset price bubble)
58
3/2015

(Stretched valuation)
A-share
1.
2.
3.

4 - 5
59

2008

(Tech Bubble)
NASDAQ 2000 2007

(Biotechnology) (Price-to-earnings)
( 80 2015)

(Overvalue) (Correction)

(Expected return)
(Dividend yield)
(Target price)

75 (
2015) ( 2007)
10 (P/E)
(Forward P/E) (Price-to-book value) (Price-to-sales)
(Price-to-cash flow) (EV/EBITDA)
(Dividend yield)

10 ( S&P 500 Nasdaq)
10 P/E Forward P/E
2007 10
Emerging market MSCI EM

SET Index 2015 P/E 19.9 Forward P/E
15.1 ( 75) 2007 10

60
3/2015
75
10
Equity Index
P/E
May-15
Forward P/E
Oct-07 10-Yr Avg May-15
Price-to-Book
Price-to-Sales
Oct-07 10-Yr Avg
S&P500
18.6
17.3
16.4
17.8
16.6
14.9
2.9
2.9
2.4
1.8
1.7
1.4
Nasdaq
30.0
35.0
29.9
22.4
27.9
20.9
3.4
3.7
2.9
2.4
2.4
1.9
Euro Stoxx 600
20.4
13.0
15.6
15.4
13.0
11.8
1.6
2.2
1.5
1.0
1.2
0.9
DAX
18.4
13.7
17.1
14.3
13.6
12.4
1.8
2.0
1.6
0.9
1.0
0.7
Nikkei 225
23.3
19.7
21.8
19.6
18.5
22.4
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.9
0.7
MSCI EM
14.4
18.2
13.4
12.8
16.5
11.3
1.6
3.0
1.9
1.1
2.2
1.3
China H-share
10.2
31.4
12.9
9.9
28.3
11.5
1.4
5.1
2.0
1.1
4.0
1.4
China A-share (Shanghai)
22.9
48.0
19.2
18.4
42.4
15.6
2.7
6.6
2.5
1.9
4.4
1.5
SET Index
19.9
18.4
14.7
15.1
15.6
12.0
2.0
2.3
1.9
1.2
1.2
1.0
SET50 Index
17.8
18.5
13.4
14.6
16.0
12.0
2.2
2.6
2.1
1.2
1.4
1.0
Equity Index
Price-to-Cash flows
May-15
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield
Oct-07 10-Yr Avg
S&P500
11.9
19.9
10.5
12.2
11.3
10.2
2.0
1.8
2.1
Nasdaq
14.5
19.6
13.3
15.0
16.9
12.8
1.2
0.7
1.0
Euro Stoxx 600
15.8
11.6
8.7
8.6
9.2
7.6
3.5
3.2
4.0
9.8
27.5
23.0
8.4
7.6
7.5
2.6
2.4
3.2
Nikkei 225
11.9
12.4
9.5
11.3
9.3
9.3
1.4
1.2
1.6
MSCI EM
9.2
13.8
8.5
7.9
11.4
8.0
2.6
2.0
2.6
China H-share
6.3
36.6
16.8
15.1
18.1
9.5
3.0
1.0
2.7
China A-share (Shanghai)
14.2
29.6
37.6
19.3
22.4
11.4
1.4
0.4
1.9
SET Index
14.3
6.5
12.4
12.2
8.7
9.2
3.0
2.9
3.8
SET50 Index
11.3
8.7
11.5
10.7
8.8
8.5
3.1
3.0
3.8
DAX
: .. 2007 10
10 .. 2007 10
: EIC Bloomberg
(Stretched valuation)

Tech bubble 2000 ( 2000 S&P500 P/E 30 NASDAQ
P/E 100 ) S&P500

61
A-share5

(Margin) 85%
4.5
2 4 2
Shanghai Composite Index 120%
Shenzhen Composite Index 160% ( 76)

A-share
76
Shanghai Composite Shenzhen Composite

7,000
Shanghai Composite Index
6,000
Shenzhen Composite Index
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Forward P/E Shanghai Composite Shenzhen Composite

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Shanghai Composite Index Forward PE

Shenzhen Composite Index Forward PE
: EIC Bloomberg
5
62
2
A-share
H-share

3/2015

(Bond Yield)
5 (
)

(High-yield bond)

(High-yield bond)
77 (Yield spread)

63
77
(Fed fund rate) (Yield) 5

: %
25
US Govt 5-Yr Yield
20
Fed Fund Target rate (mid)
15
10
5
0
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
(Index) (Yield spread)

:
1,200
1,000
: %
BofA-ML US High Yield Index (LHS)
Barclays US Corporate High Yield Spread (RHS)
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
: EIC Bloomberg
64
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
3/2015
3

1. 2.
3.

Fed
Fed

2006 Fed

Inflation
Swap Forward ( 78)

78
(Yield)
: %
10
US Govt 5-Yr Yield
German Govt 5-Yr yield
Japan Govt 5-Yr yield
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
65
Inflation Swap Forward

: %
4
USD Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5

JPY Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5
3.5
EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
: EIC Bloomberg

IMF 6

Basel III Volcker rule -
(Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act)
(Proprietary Trading)
(Market maker)

(Wealth effect)
QE

(Valuation) (Risk-free
rate) (Cost of equity)

( 79)
6
66
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015
3/2015

79
Fed

S&P500
3 3
.. 1994 .. 1995 3% 6%
2.2%
-4.7%
-2.7%
0.13%
.. 1999 .. 2000 4.75% 6.5%
3.9%
-5.1%
7.9%
8.48%
.. 2004 - .. 2006 1% 5.25%
17
0.8%
-2.3%
6.8%
12.03%
: EIC Bloomberg

Emerging market Tapering 2013
.

2013 ( 80) 18%
( 80)

2013
80

:
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-00
Corporate Bonds
State-Owned Enterprise and Other Bonds
Central Bank Bonds
Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
67

: %
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
(Yield) 5
: %
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jun-14
ThaiBMA Corp Bond A Index 5 Yr Yield

ThaiBMA Corp Bond AAA Index 5 Yr Yield
Thailand Govt Bond 5 Yr Yield
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
: EIC Bloomberg, AsianBondsOnline
68
Jun-15
3/2015

4 - 5

(P/E Expansion)

Emerging market A-share

(Interest rate risk)

5 2.75%
Term premium ( 5 ) 1.25%
4 ( 81)
Term Premium 1.25%

81
5
(Term Premium) 5 1
: %
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
: EIC Bloomberg
69

.

Interest rate swap

70
Summary of
main forecasts
1.6%
-5.6%
8.7
1.1%
1.7%
2.00%
33.0
76.0
-0.4%
-9.0%
13.1
1.9%
1.6%
2.00%
33.0
98.9
% YOY
% YOY
USD bn
% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
USD/bbl
-3.2%
3.1%
0.7%
1.0%
-0.4%
1.6%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
2.1%
3.6%
4.1%
-0.5%
10%
90%
0.6%
1.7%
-2.0%
-4.9%
2014
0.9%
Actual
14Q4
2.1%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
Unit
52%
17%
19%
5%
2014
Share (%)
-0.5%
1.5%
1.75%
32.6
54.0
-4.7%
-6.4%
8.2
-0.9%
1.1%
1.5%
33.8
62.0
-2.0%
-6.5%
4.1
-3.0%
3.4%
0.4%
2.6%
-0.6%
0.4%
2.4%
2.5%
3.6%
37.8%
-4.8%
4.1%
15Q2
2.8%
15Q1
3.0%
0.3%
1.3%
1.25%
34.0
63.0
0.2%
-4.8%
4.0
1.6%
3.2%
0.5%
3.4%
-1.2%
1.3%
1.9%
1.7%
1.25%
34-35
66.0
0.4%
0.6%
8.7
1.8%
3.3%
2.5%
3.4%
4.5%
0.7%
0.1%
1.1%
1.25%
34-35
61.0
-1.5%
-4.3%
25.0
-1.1%
3.5%
1.5%
4.5%
1.4%
3.0%
1.5%
9.1%
EIC forecast
15Q3 15Q4 2015
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
34-35
69.0
1.5-1.75%
2.7%
1.3%
3.6%
6.9%
20.9
1.0%
3.6%
2.7%
4.1%
2.0%
3.3%
3.4%
13.3%
As of June 2015
-0.1%
0.5%
2.2%
15.8
2.6%
Consensus
2016
2015
3.3%
3.3%
For 15Q2, actuals are reported for Key rates and Oil prices.
Sources: EIC forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (Jun 2015), June 2015 Bank of Thailands Monetary Policy Report, and Foreign research houses.
Real GDP growth

Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing and Services
Of which Manufacturing
Of which Services
External sector
Export of Goods (USD)
Import of Goods (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (end period)
Oil prices Brent (period avg.)
Key indicators
EIC summary of main forecasts
As of June 2015
-0.5%
1.0%
-1.5%
-2.4%
19.5
2.0%
3.3%
2.7%
16.3%
BOT
2015
3.0%
3/2015
.
Economic Intelligence
Center (EIC) .
(Risk Analytics)
.
10
(IMF) , Booz Allen Hamilton
, ING Group

.
(Non-resident Fellow)
Asia Society
.

(M.I.T.)
. 20 2550
Asia Society
.
. Assistant Professor of Economics
San Diego State University Journal of
International Money and Finance Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System
. ()
University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor
. Oxford Analytica

Citigroup London
(Oxford Thai Society, 2005-6) Oxford Initiative
. ( )

Citibank/FCO Chevening Scholarship
University of Oxford
. ()
Lafayette College (Pennsylvania, USA)
London School of Economics, UK -
Duke University (North Carolina, USA)

. ()

Columbia
University CFA CFA Institute
.

. ()
Policy
Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank
London School of Economics
Applied Economics and Management Cornell University

()

()
Finance and Risk
University of Bath (Distinction)

Logistics and Supply Chain Management Heriot-Watt University

E-mail : eic@scb.co.th : +662 544 2953

sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th
Economic and Financial

Market Research
.
Sectorial Strategy

phacharaphot.nuntramas@scb.co.th
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chinnawut.techanuvat@scb.co.th
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pitsinee.thitisomboon@scb.co.th
veerawan.chayanon@scb.co.th
piyakorn.chonlaworn@scb.co.th
khemarat.songyoo@scb.co.th
tanakorn.limvittaradol@scb.co.th
Maraporn.Kiwiriyakun@scb.co.th
vorada.tantisunthorn@scb.co.th
Knowledge Management
& Networking
.
Infrastructure Cluster

tubkwan.homchampa@scb.co.th
sivalai.khantachavana@scb.co.th
supree.srisamran@scb.co.th
lertpong.larpchevasit@scb.co.th
Export Cluster

chotika.chummee@scb.co.th
kaweepol.panpheng@scb.co.th
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Service Cluster

vithan.charoenphon@scb.co.th
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EIC Online

www.scbeic.com
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th
: +662 544 2953
@SCB_Thailand
03
04
E-mail

() Economic Intelligence Center 9 10900 Email : eic@scb.co.th

Eic 2015-Q3

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Outlook

Local Government Debt-Swap Program

GDP 2014 2015

Summary of main forecasts

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America) EIC

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Quarter on Quarter Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)

(average hourly earnings)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

: EIC Bloomberg, CEIC, Wall Street Journal

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

6.4 7.9 6.6

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

BOX: Local Government Debt-Swap

local government debt-swap

(Quantitative Easing: QE)

: EIC Bank of America

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(GDPChain Volume Measures: GDP-CVM)

Laspeyres P n-1Q n *100 P , Q , n , n-1

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Note: < 30% , , , ,

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: 3 Jan 13= 100

: 3 (Jan 13= 100)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2015 0.1% 1.1%

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Leading global houses ( 10 2015)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Bloomberg CEIC

: EIC Bank for International Settlements

Linear regression analysis ( BOX:

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

() CPB world trade

(1) TH_ExpVol= a + b1 TH_REER + b2 Wd_ImpVol + e

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(2) THMY = REERTH /REERMY

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Bloomberg CEIC

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC CEIC OAE

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Oct-07 10-Yr Avg May-15

Oct-07 10-Yr Avg May-15

Oct-07 10-Yr Avg May-15