Eic 2015-Q4

Outlook
Quarter 4/2015
2015 2016
In focus: ?
In focus:
Special issues:
3 (The Third Arrow)
.
.
.

4/2015
2016
3.0%

2016
2016
20%
Fed
GDP 2015 2016

: %YOY
2016
2015
2015

20%
2.2
19.3
2016F
3.0
1.8
1.4 1.5

CLMV
2015: 36
2016: 37
2.0
-4.9
GDP
32.2
2016

28.3
2016 32.2

Fed
1.50%
2016
1
3
Fed
: EIC CEIC, ., .
2016
2.0%
2015
9.8
-2.2
3.7 3.5
1.3% 2016

2015 2016
3 (The Third Arrow)
4
12
17
Bull - Bear:
40
In focus: ?
44
In focus:
56
72
Summary of main forecasts
80
Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)
2015 2016
2.2%
2015
2016
3.0%

3.9
2.5
2016 20%

Fed

.
1.5% 2016
4
4/2015
2015 2016
2015 2016
2016

2016 2
QE 2016

2016 ( 1)
1
2015 2016
2015 2016
: %YOY
2015F
2016F
6.8
2.4
6.3
2.7
1.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
: (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America) IMF EIC

1 2
0.6% 3.9% QOQ SAAR1 -0.2% 2.3%
( 2) 3 5.1%
2008 2.12
2015 ( 3)
3 (..-..) 0.3%
3 90.7 ( 4)
3 21.8% 17.7% ( 5)
1)
0.3% 2% ( 6) 2)

70% GDP
87% GDP

(Fed) 2%
2.7% 2016
2015 2.4%
Fed Fed
Fed (Fed funds rate) 2015 0-0.25%
8 1 0-0.25% 0.250.50% Fed

(FOMC) 16-17
2016 1.375% 2015 1%

55 2015

Fed
( 7)
(quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate)
4/2015
(Real GDP)
(Markit Composite PMI)
()
65
()
3.9
60
55.3 55
0.6
3Q2015
2Q2015
1Q2015
45
1.5
100
()
()
95
0.6
0.5
0.3
90.7 90
85
0.0
70
65
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
-1.0
80
75
-0.5
2%
1.5
2%
1.3
1.0
0.0
5.1 5.0
4.5
21.8
17.7
80
90
-10
100
-20
110
-30
120
-40
130
-50
140
0.3
(REER) ()
()
:
150
-60
-70
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
0.5
5.5
: (2010 = 100)
2.5
2.0
6.0
: %YOY
6.5
2015 = 212K
: %YOY 3
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
60
(PCE deflator)
3.0
7.0
()
: 1966=100 3
1.0
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
: %
()
(U. of Michigan Sentiment Index)

: %MOM SA 3
: MOM SA
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
50
1Q2013
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
: %QOQ SAAR
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
: EIC Bloomberg, CEIC Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

7

1 2 0.5%
0.4% QOQ SA2 ( 8) 0.4% 0.3%
( 9) 3
(Purchasing Managers' Index: PMI) 53.9
3 4 11.0%
3 ( 10)

2016 1.9% 1.4%

(QE) (ECB)
( 11)
0.1%YOY
3 1.5%YOY ( 12)
ECB
0.1%
ECB 0.3% 0.1%
2%
3
( 13) ECB QE
QE
60 2016 1.1
(quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted)
4/2015
(Real GDP) (PMI)

0.5
50
4Q2014
0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3
3Q2015
2Q2015
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
12
0.7
0.5
0.40.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1
::
::%%SA
SA
()
()
ECB
ECB
QE
QE
1.00
1.00
(
())
2525
2020
1.10
1.10
1515
1.20
1.20
1010
55
Jan-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
00
Apr-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
-0.1 8.5
8.0
Oct-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
: %SA
Apr-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
()
Apr-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Jul-13
()
2Q2015
11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
: %YOY SA
Jul-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jan-13
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
4Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2012
40
1Q2015
0.7
0.6
45
1.30
1.30
1.40
1.40
3
13

: %
: %YOY
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
3Q2014
0.91.0
55
10
3
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
: %QOQ SA
60
0.4
53.9
1Q2012
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
()
()
Oct-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jan-14
: %QOQ SA
(Real GDP)
ECB QE
1.8
1.5
13.2
12.4
0.1
6.8
3.2
2.2
: EIC CEIC, Bloomberg Eurostat

9
2 1.2% QOQ SAAR 2015 2

2 ( 14) 60% GDP
0.7% QOQ SAAR
0.9% QOQ SAAR
16.6% QOQ SAAR ( 15)
10% QOQ SAAR 2
5.7% QOQ SAAR 19.2% QOQ SAAR 1
( 16) 3% GDP
1.45% QOQ SAAR
3
4
( 17) 2015
18%
54%
2014

( 18)

2016 1.2%

QQE 2.1 (2.5 )
ETFs 2015
3 (
BOX: 3 (The Third Arrow))
( ) 0%YOY ( 19)
2016 2015 1.2%
10
4/2015
2
14

15

: %QOQ SAAR
-10
-15
2Q2014
16
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
: %YOY
70%
60%
56
58
()
: %YOY
()
15
10
5
52
40%
50
30%
48
20%
44
0
-5
46
Jul-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
19
()
95,000
125
120
90,000
115
110
85,000
105
100
80,000
95
90
75,000
85
1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015
80
()
8%
: %YOY
2.0
50
45
1.5
40
1.0
35
0.5
30
0.0
25
20
-0.5
15
-1.0
10
-1.5
-2.0
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
-15
Jul-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
18
-10
Mar-13
42
10%
70,000
PMI
54
50%
-10%
Jul-15

17
PMI
0%
Apr-15
-10
Jan-15
-8
-7.6
16
Oct-14
-6
Jul-14
-5
Apr-14
-4
Jan-14
Jul-13
-2
Oct-13
-1.2
Apr-13
10
Jan-13
12
10
Jul-12
14
15
Oct-12
20
Apr-12
25
4
0
-1.1
()
6
2
1.3
: %YOY
Jan-12
4.5
: %YOY
Jul-11
GDP ()
Oct-11
Apr-11
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
Jan-11
: %QOQ SAAR
: EIC CEIC Bloomberg
11
BOX: 3
(The Third Arrow)
3 (Abenomics
Third Arrow)

2
1
QQE 2

31% 2013
2015 3
(structural reform)
2%

3
4
1.
(normal effective statutory tax) 34.6% 32.1% 2015
31.3% 2016 OECD
20%
6
2016
2.

TOBITATE! NEXT JAPAN
2014
1 2020
12
4/2015

2014
(child care leave) 50% 67%
2 2
( 20) 2014
3. 3 1.

9 1950 2016
2020
20

25-44
6/2015
72.0%

12/2012
67.9%
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
: % 25-44
73
72
71
70
69
6/2010
66.7%
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
: EIC
13
2. (over-the-counter drugs: OTC)

( 5 )
2014
3. 60
(Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives)
2019

4.
2013-2014
11 7
2014 ( 8%)

TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) (FTA)
19% 2012 70% 2018
1 2

1990-2012
1.1%

3

AEC
14
4/2015
3
3 2 7.0% ( 21)
10%YOY
( 22)
3 7%
- ( 23)
(Manufacturing PMI) 50.2
2 49.8 3 PMI
47.4
(Peoples Bank
of China: PBOC) 25 bps (Reserved
Requirement Ratio: RRR) 50 bps 1.9%
( 24)
2015 6.8% 2016

6.3%
3
(proactive fiscal policy)
local government debt-swap
3.0 3 .2
PBOC RRR
RRR 18% ( 25) 2016

12 2.0%

(margin trade) ( 26)

( BOX: )
1.25% 2014 1.50% 2

(over-supply)
2016 5th Plenum
2016-2020
(high-income economy)
15
(Real GDP) (PMI)

: %YOY
(Real GDP)
-Caixin ()
2013 7.5%
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
22
: %YOY 3
-NBS ()
30
2014 7.5%
53.0
2015
7.0% 52.0
51.0
50.0
49.0
48.0
47.0
46.0
45.0
44.0
-
23
7%
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
21
3
2 7.0%
24 PBOC
1.9%
(CNY)
: CNY/USD
CNY fixing
USDCNY
:
6.6
6.5
trading band
+/- 2%
6.4
6.3
CNY fixing
1.9% CNY
fixing
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.8
25
:
RRR
18
15
:
CSI-300 index
25000
(margin trade) ()
5000
20000
4000
2000
5
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
1000

16
6000
15000
3000
10
(CSI 300 index)
10000
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
20

26
RRR 18%
(Reserved Requirement Ratio)

: %
25
Trading band
+/- 1%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
6.0
5000
0
4/2015
BOX:
11 PBOC 1.9%
1) 2)
3) PBOC
6.1
(special drawing rights: SDRs)
(IMF)
IMF
SDRs

PBOC

9.4 ( 27)
4.2

3.56
17
27 93.6

:
(RHS)
150
100
4500
4000
3500
3,558
3000
50
0
-50
2500
-93.6 -100
2000
-150
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15

(offshore
yuan: CNH)
(onshore yuan:
CNY) ( 28) PBOC
CNY

: EIC Bloomberg
28
CNY CNH
: CNY/USD, CNH/USD
6.6
USDCNH
USDCNY
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
: EIC Bloomberg
18
4/2015
2015 2
( 29)

( 30)
2015 ( 31)
2

( 32)

Fed

2015 20% 14% 9% ( 33)

( In Focus: ?)
2016 2015
2016

CLMV

( 34)
19
2015
29
: %YOY
7.0
3Q2014
4Q2014
6.0
1Q2015
2Q2015
5.60
4.72 4.67
5.0
5.60
5.00
4.90
4.0
2.80
3.0
1.80
2.0
1.0
0.0

30
: %
: % GDP
2.9%
3.0%
3.2%
12.4%
8.8%
12.9%
11.9%
13.5%
2014
2014
PMI
PMI
PMI
PMI ()
58
56
54

20
: %YOY 3
20
:
60
16
12
8
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
-12
Jun-14
-8
44
Apr-14
-4
46
May-14
48
Mar-14
50
Jan-14
Feb-14
52
Jul-15
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Aug-15
: % YOY 3
Jun-15
32
Apr-15
31
May-15
12.2%
Mar-15
11.8%
4/2015
2015
33
34
: .. 2013 = 100
140
135
130
125
CLMV
: .. 2013 = 100
160
150
140
130
120
115
120
110
110
105
Jul-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
90
May-13
100
Aug-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Jun-15
95
Jan-13
100
90
CLMV

: EIC CEIC
21
2.2% 2015

2

8

2016 3.0%
3.9 2.5
2016 20%

Fed

35
GDP 2015 2016

: %YOY
2015
2.2
3.0
1.8
1.4 1.5
2016
3.7 3.5
19.3
9.8
2.0
-2.2
-4.9
GDP
*
: EIC
22
4/2015
1.5%YOY 2
1.0% 0.7% ( 36)

2.5%YOY 3.8%YOY
15.7%YOY 11.5%YOY
( 37) 3
3.9%YOY
9.5%YOY ( 38) ( 39)

6
0% 2

7,000

1.4% 1.5% 2016

80% GDP

( 40)
50-60
23
37
: %
: %YOY
20
6.0
()
()
15.7
38
10.0
6.6
5.0
3.9
0.0
-1.4
-5.0
-9.5
-10.0
-15.0
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
-20.0
Aug-14
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
-40
: %YOY
-10
39
-11.5 -20
2Q2015
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
-4.0
-5
1Q2014
-2.0
4Q2013
0.7
3Q2013
1.0
40
50
:
()
90
()
45
85
40
80
35
75
30
70
25
65
20
60
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
0.0
40
: (Jan-15 = 100)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jul-15
May-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
Jun-15
46

30
20
: EIC
Bloomberg
24
60
3.8 20
2.5
0
2Q2013
1.5
80
10
1Q2013
2.4
2.0
-25.0
15
4.0
-6.0
2Q2015
36
4/2015
2 3.4%YOY 3
3.1% ( 41)
80% 5.0%YOY
(transport equipment)
0.4%YOY 1.5%YOY
10.6%YOY ( 42)
3 0.6%YOY
7.9%YOY ( 43)

1 2015 31 2016 5

(SMEs) 10% 15-20%
SMEs 3 4% 7
2 SMEs
2.2% 1.8% (
In focus: )

(currency mismatch)

( 44)

25
41
2

42
: %
10.0
()
10.6
10
3.6
5.0
: %YOY
15
5
0.0
0.1
-5.0
-3.1
-3.4
-0.4
-5
-5.0
-10
-10.0
43
3
6.0
4.0
2.7
2.0
0.6
0.0
-0.7
-7.9
-2.0
-4.0
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
-8.0
Aug-14
-6.0
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
2Q2015
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
Fed funds rate
:: %YOY
%YOY
25
25
20
20
: %YOY
Fed
Fed funds
funds rate
rate
25
25
10
10 25

10
10
20
20 20
15
15
15
15
15
10
10
10
10
10
55
55
00
00
1971
1971
1973
1973
1975
1975
1977
1977
1979
1979
1981
1981
1983
1983
1985
1985
1987
1987
1989
1989
1991
1991
1993
1993
1995
1995
1997
1997
1999
1999
2001
2001
2003
2003
2005
2005
2007
2007
2009
2009
2011
2011
2013
2013
2015
2015
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
()
2Q2013

44
: %YOY
-20
1Q2013
2Q2015
1Q2015
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
-15
-15.0
: EIC Bloomberg
26
4/2015
. SMEs

SMEs
3 1 2015 1.36
3 2015 3 1
6
2
3.6
3 1
4 1.6
4 2015 2016
2015 2015
65% 87%

5 2015 8.6
84% 2014 56%
2015 78% 57%

2016 2016 3 1. 19- 2. - 3.-
(--)
- 2015
19%YOY 4.9%YOY 2014 9.6%YOY 2016
. 2016 8% 2015
(.) ... 2016 2.72
3.9 2.1 543,635 61,991
13,536 8% 2.5
2015 2016 20% 2015
2016
27

45
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2014
2015
:
2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
28
2015
4/2015
-
8 - 4.9%YOY

15.6%YOY 24.4%YOY 8

3.1%YOY 2.8%YOY

CLMV
16%YOY ( 46)

8 5.4%YOY

53 13%YOY
7%YOY
GSP 5.6%YOY
CLMV ( )
2.9%YOY 8.1%YOY ( 47)
4.9% 2015 2016 2.0%

2016 2.0%

GSP
CLMV
8
8.2%YOY ( 48) 39.4%YOY
3.8%YOY
8.3%YOY 2015 10%YOY
2016 3.3%YOY

29
4.9%YOY
46
8
-
: % YOY
Jan-Aug 15
2014
-0.4
-4.9
23.0
-12.1
-26.9
-17.1
-4.3
-0.3
-10.3
-24.4
-13.6
-11.2
2.1
-15.6
-2.8
-3.1
2.5
3.2
0.6
: EIC
47
-
: % YOY
2014
Jan-Aug 15
4.1
2.9
-7.0
-7.9
-12.9
CLMV
: EIC
30
4.2
-5.6
-1.9
-5.4
0.2
9.0
8.1
4.2
3.4
2.3
4/2015
48
8.2%YOY
: 3 Jan 13= 100
120
110
()
100
90
80
70
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
50
Jan-13
60
: EIC
31
7 17.4 30.2%YOY
109%YOY 32.4%YOY
49.7%YOY ( 49) 7 30%YOY 17.4

7.1%MOM SA
( 50)
2015 28.3
28.8 2-3

2016 32.2

(penetration rate)
( 51)

11%
( In focus:
?)
49
7
30%
200
150
100
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
50
0
: ()
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
: 3 (Jan 13= 100)

250
50
: EIC CEIC
32
17
4/2015
(penetration rate)
51
(penetration rate)
: /, %
penetration rate
()
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(2009-2014)
: EIC CEIC

27.6
2015 7% GDP

( In focus: ?)
2016
10%

2017
33
8
1.05%YOY 1.19%YOY
3 ( 52)
17% 50%
(Ft) 9.35 49.61 2015
0.19%YOY
0.24%YOY

2015 -
2015 Ft 3.23 46.38
2.5%1.5% (.)

.

.

2%

0.89%YOY
0.94%YOY 3 ( 53)
148 111 450

14% 1.09%YOY

2015

2015 0.8% 1.3% 2016

56 60 2016

2016
34
4/2015
52
: %
2.5
2.16
2.09
2.0
1.75
1.5
1.48
1.26
1.0
0.60
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.41
-0.52 -0.57
-1.0
-1.04
-1.5
-1.27
-1.07 -1.05
-1.19
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
-2.5
Sep-14
-2.0
53
: %
3
2
1.81 1.83 1.73
1.67 1.60
1.69 1.64
1.45
0.95
1.31
0.75
1.02 0.94
0.94
0.94
0.47
0.37
0.40
0.39
0.39
0.50
0.56
0.55
0.56
0.55
0.56
0.50
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
0.89
: EIC
35
(.) 1.50% 16

.
1.50% 2016
.

36 2015 33
1.50% 2016

12-15 ( 54)
54
2016
.
: %
6.00
14
12 15
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.00
: EIC
36
4/2015
36

( In-focus:
?)

Fed
Fed

2015 36 2016
Fed
2015
2016 37 ( 55)
36
55
37
36
35
34
35.7
21 .. 2015
33
32
31
30
29
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
: EIC Bloomberg
37
3 ECB

1.10 2015
2016 1.00 - 1.15
Fed ECB QE ( 56)
3
56
:
1.45
EUR-USD
1.40
EUR-THB
1.13 44
21 .. 2015
42
1.35
1.30
1.25
40
1.20
38
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
Sep-14
36
34
Nov-14
Jan-15
: EIC Bloomberg
38
:
46
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
32
4/2015
(risk-off)

safe asset 120
QQE
2%
120 2015
2016 115 - 125 ( 57)
57
120
:
130
USD-JPY
:
4.0
THB-JPY
125
3.8
120
3.6
115
110
3.4
105
100
95
90
Sep-14
Nov-14
120 3.2
21 .. 2015
3.0
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
2.8
: EIC Bloomberg
39
Bull - Bear:
40
4/2015
BULL-BEAR:
(USD/)
()
2014
2013
2015F
2016F
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3F
Q4F
WTI
98
99
103
98
73
93
48
58
47
50
51
55
48
55
Brent
109
108
110
102
76
99
54
62
50
53
55
58
53
60
: EIC Leading global houses ( 14 2015)
BULLs:

(IS)

IS

2
OPEC
Non-OPEC

2.4
8% OPEC
OPEC

11 2015 451
4 2015
5 (-1%QOQ) 446
EIA shale oil
8
5 (-6% QOQ) 4
Eagle ford
Bakken 6 2

2.5
4

shale oil

4 2015

shale oil
(EIA)
41
BEARs:

EIA
8 (1%YOY) 4
2015 95.86
94.33
1.53
3.5 (-20%YOY)

OPEC
OPEC 8
(2% YOY) 37.46
5 3
Non-OPEC

shale oil
Oil sands ( 3
Non-OPEC
4.7 8%
Non-OPEC)

42
P5+1
JCPOA 4 6

EIA
2-3 2016
40

3.6
2011
2.8 1

2 10.79 11%
(Caixin PMI)
2015 50
7%
1
(-13.4%MOM) 6.28
2015
4/2015
EIC: Bear
4 2015

3

Non-OPEC

OPEC

Non-OPEC
43
In focus:
44
4/2015
( 30% )
66% GDP
(1
)
()
The
impossible
trinity

The impossible
trinity
1
3
( correlation )
()
2
4
()
()
45

2 1)

2)
(FOMC) 16-17 2015
0-0.25% 3.75%
(carry trade)

20% 2015 ( 58)
30% 2014 ( 59) 92.7
1 2010
1) 30%

2) 4 66% GDP
2 2015 ( 69% GDP) ( 60) 3)
1 ( 61) 4)

58
59
: (..2015 = 100)
130
11 ..
110
120
115
110
105
100
95
Jan-15
120
90
80
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15 Sep-15
70
60
Feb-15 Mar-15
100
: EIC Bloomberg
46
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
125
: (..2014 = 100)
130
4/2015
60
66% GDP
61
1
GDP
: % GDP
5.5
66.4
3.9
34.4
2.8
33.9
26.1
2.2
23.2
1.0
: EIC Bloomberg
?
1997
5% GDP

3
(impossible trinity) 1. 2.
3.
47
3
62
(impossible trinity)
The
impossible
trinity

The impossible
trinity
impossible trinity
1997 IMF
( 63)

( 64)
48
4/2015
63
IMF
The
Trinity
The Impossible
impossible trinity
: EIC
64
: %
% GDP
67%
35%
37%
28%
39%
22%
47%
10%
77%
44%
25%
1%
: EIC Bank of Negara Malaysia
49

1. 3

(correlation) +0.28 ( 65)

3
65
(correlation coefficient)
0.28
-0.23
-0.54
: EIC Bloomberg
2.
1) 5% GDP 2)
34% GDP 3)
2.8 4) 5)
17%
31% ( 66)
50
4/2015
66
: %
40
31
17
(% GDP)
13
54
55
: EIC Asian Development Bank
3. ( 67)
4 5% 2
10% 2008
5
1% 5.4%
1.9% 1% 2.3%
1.3% ( 68)

(multiple regression) (dependent variable) 51

(explanatory variable)
95%
67
400
350
9.5
250
900
9.0
150
200
9.0
100
: EIC Bloomberg
68
1%
-5.39%
-1.92%
1%
-2.26%
-1.29%
: EIC
52
Jul-15
Apr-15
8.5
Jan-15
8.0
Oct-14
50
Jul-14
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
600
9.5
Apr-14
700
8.5
10.0
300
1000
800
10.5
Jan-14
10.5
10.0
1100
()
Oct-13
1200
Jul-13
()
Apr-13
1300
Jan-13
8.0
4/2015
4.
(.)
.
2013

?

(external position) 1) 2)
3) GDP 4)

5% GDP 4 2

41.5% 49.4% GDP

( 69)

3 5 (Fragile 5) 2013

53
69

(% GDP)
(
)
(% GDP)
-5.5
1.1
41.5
-5.6
0.8
49.4
2.7
1.0
66.4
-2.4
2.2
34.4
-4.4
6.4
25.9
-1.4
3.9
23.2
5.1
2.8
33.9
5.0
5.5
26.1
: EIC CEIC
54
4/2015
55
In focus:
Growth
Engine

56
4/2015
GDP = 319%
GDP = 151%
GDP =
19%
GDP
19% GDP
GDP = 125%
2 - 3
:
:

2016
5-10%
1.8%

(emerging technologies)
57
(capital
expenditure CAPEX)

19% ( 70)

70

: % GDP
54%
25%
19%
9%
-3%
-3%
: %YOY
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
: EIC Asian Development Bank

58
2013
2014
4/2015

(SET Index)
3
( 71)
71

: %
GDP
GDP
350%
GDP
319%
300%
250%
200%
151%
150%
125%
100%
50%
0%
4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14
: EIC Bloomberg

( 72)
2 - 3
( 6)
6
Lagged correlation

59
72
2 - 3
: %YOY
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

0
(0.14)
1
0.08
2
0.39
3
0.39
4
0.21
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
1Q15
: EIC Bloomberg

(CAPEX to depreciation ratio)

( 73)
( 74)
MSCI 2010

( 75)

60
4/2015
73
3.16
1.78
1.73
1.64
1.63
1.3
: EIC Bloomberg
: MSCI .. 2015
61
74
(market capitalization)
(agro & food industry)
6%
(consumer products)
1%
(financials)
18%
(industrials)
5%
(property and construction)
18%
(resources)
16%
(services)
22%
(technology)
14%
MSCI
(energy)
(material)
(industrials)
(consumer discretionary)
(consumer staples)
(health care)
(financials)
(information technology)
(telecommunication services)
(utilities)
6%
5%
11%
14%
11%
13%
21%
13%
4%
3%
7%
3%
10%
14%
10%
15%
16%
20%
3%
3%
6%
6%
12%
14%
14%
12%
22%
3%
5%
5%
1%
5%
18%
23%
8%
8%
17%
10%
8%
2%
: EIC Bloomberg
: MSCI .. 2015
62
6%
5%
11%
8%
7%
3%
30%
16%
10%
5%
4/2015
2010
75
(cash flows from investing activities)7

:
3.0
(CAPEX)
(CAPEX)
(other
investing
activities)
(Other
Investing
activities)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
: EIC Bloomberg
(resources) (industrial)
(consumer products) (agro & food industry)
(technology) (property and construction)
(services) ( 76)

63
76
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
2009 2012 2015
: EIC Bloomberg
(industry) (sector)
2.17
(consumer products)
2.22
(industrials)
0.97
(property & construction)
2.67
(resources)
1.24
(services)
1.35
(technology)
2.98
: EIC Bloomberg
: .. 2015
64
(agri business)
(food & beverages)
(fashion)
(home and office
products)
(personal products & pharmaceuticals)

(automotive)
(industrial materials & machinery)

(paper & printing materials)
(petrochemicals & chemicals)
(packaging)
(steel)
(construction materials)
(construction services)
(property development)
(energy & utilities)
(mining)
(commerce)
(health care services)
(media & publishing)
(professional services)
(tourism & leisure)
(transportation and logistics)
(electronic components)
(information & communication technology)
1.81
2.21
2.40
2.61
1.30
0.73
0.86
2.27
1.12
1.61
0.38
2.57
1.49
3.58
1.24
0.70
2.25
1.97
1.40
1.61
1.20
0.74
1.89
3.18
4/2015

(resources) (energy)
2011
2014
( 77)
5 ( )
77
: %YOY
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-09
()
:
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.21
0.32
0.42
0.54
0.58
0.61
0.59
0.56
0.56
: EIC Bloomberg

(food & beverages)
2013 (agri business)
( 78)
65
78
: %YOY
%YOY
::%YOY
120%
()
()
()
::
260
120%
120%
100%
260
240260
100%
100%
80%
240
220240
80%
80%
60%
220
200220
60%
60%
40%
200
180200
40%
40%
20%
180
160180
20%
20%
0%
160
140160
0%0%
-20%
140
120140
-20%
-20%
-40%
Jan-09
-40%
-40%
Jan-09
Jan-09
120
100120
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-10
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
100100
: EIC Bloomberg
(industrials) (cyclical)

3 - 4

79
3 - 4
: %YOY
: %YOY
120%
120%
100%
0
01
12
23
34
45
56
6
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
-60%
-60% Jan-09
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-12
: EIC Bloomberg
66
Jan-13
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
0.74
0.74
0.78
0.78
0.82
0.82
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.83
0.83
0.80
0.80
4/2015
(services) (consumer products)

5 - 6
( 80) 2015

80
: %YOY
: %YOY
()
: %YOY
30%
()
20%
30%
10%
20%
0%
10%
-10%
0%
-20%
-10%Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
-20%
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
: EIC Bloomberg
::%YOY
%YOY
50%
40%
30%
30% 50%
20%
40%
10%
20% 30%
0%
20%
-10%
10% 10%
-20%
0%
-30%
0% -10%
-40%
-20%
Jan-15
-10%
-30%
-20% -40%
Jan-15 Jan-09
Jan-10

0
0.32
0.47
1
20 0.32
0.59
30.69
()
1
0.47
0.76
24
0.59
53
0.81
0.69
0.80
46
0.76
0.75
57
0.81
86
0.68
0.80
97
0.59
0.75
8
9
Jan-11
0.68
0.59
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
: %YOY
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Jan-15
(technology)
3G 2010
2013 ( 81)
67
3G
81
2011
: %YOY
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
: EIC Bloomberg

IMF8

MSCI World 12 (sales growth, YOY)
(CAPEX growth, YOY)
6 (gross
profit margin) (net profit margin) (return on assets)
(return on equity)
6 - 9 ( 82)
68
World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015
4/2015
MSCI World
82
6
(CAPEX growth) (sales growth)
(gross profit margin) MSCI World
: %YOY
: %YOY
40%
()
32%
31%
20%
31%
30%
0%
30%
29%
-20%
29%
-40%
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
28%
: EIC Bloomberg
MSCI World
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0.57
0.66
0.76
0.84
0.88
0.91
0.93
0.89
0.85
0.80
0.71
0.62
0.52
0.40
0.02
0.14
0.27
0.39
0.50
0.61
0.71
0.77
0.83
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.84
0.30
0.38
0.49
0.59
0.66
0.74
0.81
0.83
0.85
0.87
0.84
0.80
0.76
0.67
0.36
0.44
0.53
0.63
0.69
0.76
0.82
0.83
0.85
0.86
0.83
0.79
0.75
0.65
0.32
0.41
0.52
0.63
0.70
0.78
0.84
0.85
0.86
0.87
0.81
0.75
0.70
0.59
: EIC Bloomberg
69

MSCI World
12 ( 83)
83
MSCI World
(CAPEX growth) (sales growth)
(net profit margin)
: %YOY
: %YOY
60%
()
9%
8%
40%
7%
6%
20%
5%
4%
0%
3%
2%
-20%
1%
-40%
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
: EIC Bloomberg
70
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
0%
4/2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0.67
0.72
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.72
0.66
0.61
0.55
0.46
0.37
0.28
0.21
0.50
0.53
0.58
0.64
0.64
0.63
0.62
0.58
0.56
0.53
0.46
0.38
0.33
0.26
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0.24
0.33
0.44
0.53
0.59
0.64
0.68
0.68
0.68
0.65
0.61
0.55
0.49
0.42
0.06
0.13
0.22
0.30
0.41
0.49
0.56
0.61
0.66
0.70
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.71
: EIC Bloomberg
71
BOX:

5.6%
9.5%
( 84 85)
84
12
(energy)
(materials)
(industrials)
(consumer staples)
(health care)
(financials)
(utilities)
-23.6%
-12.1%
-6.6%
-4.3%
-4.5%
5.6%
-6.8%
2.0%
-9.4%
-11.2%
-7.0%
-21.6%
-0.6%
1.1%
4.7%
1.1%
11.9%
3.6%
9.0%
-9.8%
-0.1%
0.3%
-5.4%
1.9%
10.8%
6.5%
9.3%
13.9%
3.9%
8.3%
6.9%
0.5%
5.4%
-16.1%
3.7%
1.6%
5.3%
6.7%
-2.8%
6.0%
6.3%
12.5%
1.7%
3.3%
-16.9%
-8.6%
-30.1%
-8.4%
-0.6%
3.5%
9.8%
-2.4%
-5.8%
-10.0%
-8.4%
: EIC Bloomberg
: GICS MSCI .. 2015
72
4/2015
85
(net profit margin)
(energy)
(materials)
(industrials)
(consumer staples)
(health care)
(financials)
(utilities)
1.6%
3.7%
5.9%
6.3%
5.5%
9.5%
13.1%
12.8%
7.2%
5.6%
7.4%
2.8%
6.2%
6.8%
6.7%
5.6%
7.5%
15.6%
15.2%
4.9%
9.5%
8.4%
0.4%
2.5%
4.6%
6.9%
6.5%
19.8%
8.6%
8.9%
8.1%
2.8%
6.0%
-1.5%
4.7%
4.1%
4.6%
4.2%
5.8%
11.4%
5.1%
8.4%
5.2%
5.3%
3.7%
2.8%
6.8%
6.8%
4.5%
7.0%
20.8%
8.1%
11.6%
11.7%
9.4%
: EIC Bloomberg
: .. 2015

2.0% 12.8%

12 23.6%
73
( 86)

(capital expenditure)
86
12
(energy)
(materials)
(industrials)
(consumer staples)
(health care)
(financials)
(utilities)
-12.0%
-11.4%
-2.5%
-0.6%
-0.9%
5.1%
9.0%
14.3%
-2.2%
-1.1%
-2.8%
-2.1%
10.7%
8.1%
8.3%
6.1%
5.5%
14.4%
21.5%
-13.7%
3.5%
4.4%
-8.0%
-5.6%
11.1%
-4.0%
1.0%
18.2%
18.2%
31.3%
27.3%
-4.5%
1.9%
4.8%
-0.4%
0.7%
6.9%
8.0%
0.4%
20.3%
7.0%
8.3%
2.4%
5.0%
-6.8%
-14.3%
-34.1%
44.5%
3.9%
5.5%
0.4%
-1.8%
6.7%
0.5%
-3.8%
: EIC Bloomberg
: .. 2015
4%

2%
5%

3

44%
MSCI

74
4/2015

( 87)
87
5 5
:

:
:

:

:

:

: EIC Bloomberg

(resources) (agro & food
industry)

75
(industrials)

3 - 4

(FDI) ( 88)
(FDI) 1
FDI FDI 2015 FDI
2015 3

88
FDI 2015

:
:
:
:
:
:
12 )
6,000
5,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
5,000
5,000
3,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
3,000
3,000
1,000
2,000
2,000
0
1,000 Apr-06
1,000
(
12
, )
( (100,000

12
12
))
(
( 80,000
0
0.21
12
12
,)
, ) 100,000 100,000
1

0.44
60,000
2
80,000 80,000
0
0
0.21 0.57 0.21
1 3
1
0.44 0.61 0.44
40,000
60,000 60,000
4
2
2
0.57 0.67 0.57
5
20,000
3
3
0.61 0.63 0.61
40,000 40,000
4
4
0.67
0.67
0
5
5
0.63
0.63
20,000
20,000
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
0
0
0
:0Apr-06
EICApr-09
Apr-09
Bloomberg
Apr-07
Apr-06Apr-08
Apr-07
Apr-08Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-10Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-13
Apr-12Apr-14
Apr-13Apr-15
Apr-14
Apr-15
:
5,000
4,000
5,000
3,000
4,000
2012
2012
2013
2013
6M14
2014
6M14
2014
6M15
6M15
2,000
3,000
1,000
2,000
1,000 0
-1,000
0
-1,000
: EIC
76
4/2015

2016 5 - 10%
1.8%

Growth
Engine

1.

(public-private partnership)

77
2.

2015 12.5%
6.1%

( 89)

3.
(BOX:
)
(health care) (information technology)

4.

(high value added)

5. (emerging
technologies)
( 90)

(biotechnology) (medical technology) (fuel cell vehicles)
(3D printing) (robotics technology) (advanced materials)

78
4/2015
89
2015
: %YOY
37.9
23.8
23.6
18.9
6.1
6
12.5
: EIC Development Bank of Japan
90

3 29%
: %
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
: EIC
79
Summary of
main forecasts
-4.7%
-6.4%
8.2
-0.5%
1.5%
1.75%
32.6
54
-0.4%
-9.0%
13.1
1.9%
1.6%
2.00%
33.0
99
% YOY
% YOY
USD bn
% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
USD/bbl
-4.7%
4.1%
0.7%
1.0%
-0.4%
1.6%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
2.4%
3.3%
3.6%
37.8%
10%
90%
0.6%
1.7%
-2.0%
-4.9%
2014
0.9%
Actual
15Q1
3.0%
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
Unit
52%
17%
19%
5%
2014
Share (%)
-1.1%
0.9%
1.50%
36.0
50
-5.9%
-14.8%
4.7
-5.0%
-9.4%
4.1
-1.1%
1.0%
1.50%
33.8
62
-4.9%
2.2%
0.1%
3.8%
-6.0%
13.7%
15Q3
1.6%
-5.9%
3.5%
1.5%
4.6%
-3.4%
24.7%
15Q2
2.8%
-0.5%
0.8%
1.50%
36.0
53
-3.9%
-9.0%
10.7
-2.6%
1.8%
1.5%
3.0%
-2.4%
2.1%
-0.8%
1.1%
1.50%
36.0
55
-4.9%
-10.0%
27.7
-4.3%
2.9%
-0.1%
4.1%
1.4%
3.7%
-2.2%
19.3%
EIC forecast
15Q4
2015
1.3%
2.2%
1.3%
1.1%
1.50%
37.0
60
2.0%
3.3%
34.3
2.2%
3.1%
1.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3.5%
1.8%
9.8%
-0.9%
1.0%
As of Sep-15
As of Sep-15
-5.0%
-9.3%
25.5
1.9%
4.0%
-0.5%
21.8%
BOT
2015
2.7%
-0.5%
-2.3%
-2.3%
18.3
2.0%
Consensus
2016
2015
2.7%
3.0%
Sources: EIC forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (September 2015), September 2015 Bank of Thailands Monetary Policy Report, and Foreign research houses.
Real GDP growth

Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing and Services
Of which Manufacturing
Of which Services
External sector
Export of Goods (USD)
Import of Goods (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (end period)
Oil prices Brent (period avg.)
Key indicators
EIC summary of main forecasts
4/2015
.

Economic Intelligence Center
.
Economic Intelligence
Center (EIC) .
(Risk Analytics)
.
10
(IMF) Booz Allen Hamilton ING Group

.
(Non-resident Fellow)
Asia Society

.

(M.I.T.)
. 20 2550
Asia Society
.
. Assistant Professor of Economics
San Diego State University Journal of
International Money and Finance Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System
. ()
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor
.

. ()
Lafayette College London
School of Economics - Duke
University

. ()

Columbia University
CFA CFA Institute
.

. ()
Policy
Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank
London School of Economics
Applied Economics and Management Cornell University
()

()

()
Finance and Risk University
of Bath (Distinction)

Logistics and Supply Chain Management Heriot-Watt University
Osaka
University

Trainee

E-mail: eic@scb.co.th : +66 (2) 544 2953
Economic Intelligence Center

sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th
Economic and Financial

Market Research
.
Sectorial Strategy

phacharaphot.nuntramas@scb.co.th
teerin.ratanapinyowong@scb.co.th
chutima.tontarawongsa@scb.co.th
piyakorn.chonlaworn@scb.co.th

pitsinee.thitisomboon@scb.co.th
veerawan.chayanon@scb.co.th
tanakorn.limvittaradol@scb.co.th
maraporn.kiwiriyakun@scb.co.th
vorada.tantisunthorn@scb.co.th
Infrastructure Cluster

tubkwan.homchampa@scb.co.th
sivalai.khantachavana@scb.co.th
supree.srisamran@scb.co.th
lertpong.larpchevasit@scb.co.th
Export Cluster

konjanart.thueanmunsaen@scb.co.th
alisa.tamprasirt@scb.co.th
issarasan.kantaumong@scb.co.th
chotika.chummee@scb.co.th

Knowledge Management
& Networking
.
anyarat.boonnithivorakul@scb.co.th
napat.srichamorn@scb.co.th
nattida.intaramayoon@scb.co.th
wanitcha.nateesuwan@scb.co.th
vipasara.arpaskundait@scb.co.th
sorodda.upamai@scb.co.th
alan.sondatanaset@scb.co.th
ekarat.laokulruch@scb.co.th
teerayut.thaiturapaisan@scb.co.th
pann.boonyavanich@scb.co.th
parima.arkkarayut@scb.co.th
Service Cluster

vithan.charoenphon@scb.co.th
pavaris.pruedsaradch@scb.co.th
pranida.syamananda@scb.co.th
kanchanok.bunsupaporn@scb.co.th
pakanee.pongpirodom@scb.co.th
lapas.akaraphanth@scb.co.th
vipavadee.srisopa@scb.co.th
EIC Online

www.scbeic.com
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th
: +662 544 2953
@SCB_Thailand
03
04
E-mail

2015
2016
37
Bull - Bear:
38
In focus:
42
In focus:
58
Summary of main forecasts
71
() Economic Intelligence Center 9 10900 Email : eic@scb.co.th

Eic 2015-Q4

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Outlook

3 (The Third Arrow)

GDP 2015 2016

Summary of main forecasts

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate)

(U. of Michigan Sentiment Index)

: EIC Bloomberg, CEIC Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2016 1.9% 1.4%

(quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

: EIC CEIC, Bloomberg Eurostat

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2 1.2% QOQ SAAR 2015 2

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2. (over-the-counter drugs: OTC)

2015 6.8% 2016

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(Real GDP) (PMI)

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

(CSI 300 index)

(Reserved Requirement Ratio)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC CEIC Bloomberg

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

GDP 2015 2016

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Fed funds rate

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: 3 Jan 13= 100

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: 3 (Jan 13= 100)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

2015 0.8% 1.3% 2016

1.81 1.83 1.73

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Leading global houses ( 14 2015)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Bank of Negara Malaysia

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Asian Development Bank

(multiple regression) (dependent variable) 51

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

: EIC Asian Development Bank

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)

(agro & food industry)

(property and construction)