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3.0HypothesisTesting|Statistics

STATISTICS
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3.0HypothesisTesting
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Inreviewinghypothesistests,westartfirstwiththegeneralidea.Then,wekeepreturningtothebasic
proceduresofhypothesistesting,eachtimeaddingalittlemoredetail.
Thegeneralideaofhypothesistestinginvolves:
1.Makinganinitialassumption.
2.Collectingevidence(data).
3.Basedontheavailableevidence(data),decidingwhethertorejectornotrejecttheinitial
assumption.
Everyhypothesistestregardlessofthepopulationparameterinvolvedrequirestheabovethree
steps.

Example:Isnormalbodytemperaturereally98.6degreesF?
Considerthepopulationofmany,manyadults.Aresearcherhypothesizedthattheaverageadultbody
temperatureislowerthantheoftenadvertised98.6degreesF.Thatis,theresearcherwantsananswerto
thequestion:"Istheaverageadultbodytemperature98.6degrees?Orisitlower?"Toanswerhis
researchquestion,theresearcherstartsbyassumingthattheaverageadultbodytemperaturewas98.6
degreesF.
Then,theresearcherwentoutandtriedtofindevidencethatrefuteshisinitialassumption.Indoingso,
heselectsarandomsampleof130adults.Theaveragebodytemperatureofthe130sampledadultsis
98.25degrees.
Then,theresearcherusesthedatahecollectedtomakeadecisionabouthisinitialassumption.Itis
eitherlikelyorunlikelythattheresearcherwouldcollecttheevidencehedidgivenhisinitialassumption
thattheaverageadultbodytemperatureis98.6degrees:
Ifitislikely,thentheresearcherdoesnotrejecthisinitialassumptionthattheaverageadultbody
temperatureis98.6degrees.Thereisnotenoughevidencetodootherwise.
Ifitisunlikely,then:
eithertheresearcher'sinitialassumptioniscorrectandheexperiencedaveryunusualevent
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ortheresearcher'sinitialassumptionisincorrect.
Instatistics,wegenerallydon'tmakeclaimsthatrequireustobelievethataveryunusualevent
happened.Thatis,inthepracticeofstatistics,iftheevidence(data)wecollectedisunlikelyinlightof
theinitialassumption,thenwerejectourinitialassumption.

Example:CriminalTrialAnalogy
Oneplacewhereyoucanconsistentlyseethegeneralideaofhypothesistestinginactionisincriminal
trialsheldintheUnitedStates.Ourcriminaljusticesystemassumes"thedefendantisinnocentuntil
provenguilty."Thatis,ourinitialassumptionisthatthedefendantisinnocent.
Inthepracticeofstatistics,wemakeourinitialassumptionwhenwestateourtwocompetinghypotheses
thenullhypothesis(H0)andthealternativehypothesis(HA).Here,ourhypothesesare:
H0:Defendantisnotguilty(innocent)
HA:Defendantisguilty
Instatistics,wealwaysassumethenullhypothesisistrue.Thatis,thenullhypothesisisalwaysour
initialassumption.
Theprosecutionteamthencollectsevidencesuchasfingerprints,bloodspots,hairsamples,carpet
fibers,shoeprints,ransomnotes,andhandwritingsampleswiththehopesoffinding"sufficient
evidence"tomaketheassumptionofinnocencerefutable.
Instatistics,thedataaretheevidence.
Thejurythenmakesadecisionbasedontheavailableevidence:
Ifthejuryfindssufficientevidencebeyondareasonabledoubttomaketheassumptionof
innocencerefutable,thejuryrejectsthenullhypothesisanddeemsthedefendantguilty.We
behaveasifthedefendantisguilty.
Ifthereisinsufficientevidence,thenthejurydoesnotrejectthenullhypothesis.Webehaveasif
thedefendantisinnocent.
Instatistics,wealwaysmakeoneoftwodecisions.Weeither"rejectthenullhypothesis"orwe"failto
rejectthenullhypothesis."

Errorsinhypothesistesting
Didyounoticetheuseofthephrase"behaveasif"inthepreviousdiscussion?We"behaveasif"the
defendantisguiltywedonot"prove"thatthedefendantisguilty.And,we"behaveisif"thedefendant
isinnocentwedonot"prove"thatthedefendantisinnocent.
Thisisaveryimportantdistinction!Wemakeourdecisionbasedonevidencenoton100%guaranteed
proof.Again:
Ifwerejectthenullhypothesis,wedonotprovethatthealternativehypothesisistrue.
Ifwedonotrejectthenullhypothesis,wedonotprovethatthenullhypothesisistrue.
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Wemerelystatethatthereisenoughevidencetobehaveonewayortheother.Thisisalwaystruein
statistics!Becauseofthis,whateverthedecision,thereisalwaysachancethatwemadeanerror.
Let'sreviewthetwotypesoferrorsthatcanbemadeincriminaltrials:

Truth

JuryDecision

NotGuilty

Guilty

OK

ERROR

ERROR

OK

NotGuilty
Guilty

andlet'sseehowtheycorrespondtothetwotypesoferrorsinhypothesistesting:

Truth

Decision

NullHypothesis

AlternativeHypothesis

OK

TypeIIERROR

TypeIERROR

OK

Donotrejectnull
Rejectnull

Notethat,instatistics,wecallthetwotypesoferrorsbytwodifferentnamesoneiscalleda"TypeI
error,"andtheotheriscalleda"TypeIIerror."Herearetheformaldefinitionsofthetwotypesoferrors:
TypeIerror:Thenullhypothesisisrejectedwhenitistrue.
TypeIIerror:Thenullhypothesisisnotrejectedwhenitisfalse.

Thereisalwaysachanceofmakingoneoftheseerrors.But,agoodscientificstudywillminimizethe
chanceofdoingso!

Makingthedecision
Recallthatitiseitherlikelyorunlikelythatwewouldobservetheevidencewedidgivenourinitial
assumption.Ifitislikely,wedonotrejectthenullhypothesis.Ifitisunlikely,thenwerejectthenull
hypothesisinfavorofthealternativehypothesis.Effectively,then,makingthedecisionreducesto
determining"likely"or"unlikely."
Instatistics,therearetwowaystodeterminewhethertheevidenceislikelyorunlikelygiventheinitial
assumption:
1.Wecouldtakethe"criticalvalueapproach"(favoredinmanyoftheoldertextbooks).
2.Or,wecouldtakethe"Pvalueapproach"(whatisusedmostofteninresearch,journalarticles,
andstatisticalsoftware).
Inthenexttwosections,wereviewtheproceduresbehindeachofthesetwoapproaches.Tomakeour
reviewconcrete,let'simaginethatistheaveragegradepointaverageofallAmericanstudentswho
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majorinmathematics.Wefirstreviewthecriticalvalueapproachforconductingeachofthefollowing
threehypothesistestsaboutthepopulationmean:
Type

Null

Alternative

Righttailed

H0:=3

HA:>3

Lefttailed

H0:=3

HA:<3

Twotailed

H0:=3

HA:3

Inpractice:

what we are interested in concluding we keep that as alternative hypothesis

Wewouldwanttoconductthefirsthypothesistestifwewereinterestedinconcludingthatthe
averagegradepointaverageofthegroupismorethan3.
Wewouldwanttoconductthesecondhypothesistestifwewereinterestedinconcludingthatthe
averagegradepointaverageofthegroupislessthan3.
And,wewouldwanttoconductthethirdhypothesistestifwewereonlyinterestedinconcluding
thattheaveragegradepointaverageofthegroupdiffersfrom3(withoutcaringwhetheritismore
orlessthan3).
Uponcompletingthereviewofthecriticalvalueapproach,wereviewthePvalueapproachfor
conductingeachoftheabovethreehypothesistestsaboutthepopulationmean .Theproceduresthat
wereviewhereforbothapproacheseasilyextendtohypothesistestsaboutanyotherpopulation
parameter.
2.0ConfidenceIntervals
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