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 At

the end of this topic you will be able to:

Define probability
Describe the classical, empirical and
subjective approaches to probability
Understand the terms experiment, event,
outcome
Define the terms conditional probability and
joint probability
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 Calculate

probabilities using the rules of

addition and the rules of multiplication

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 Descriptive

statistics is concerned with

summarizing data collected from past events.
We turn to the second facet of statistics,
namely, computing the chance that something
will occur in the future.
This facet of statistics is called statistical
inference or inferential statistics

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Statistical inference deals with conclusions

about a population based on a sample taken
from that population.
Because there is uncertainty in decision
making, it is important that all the known risks
involved be scientifically evaluated.
Helpful in this evaluation is probability theory,
which has often been referred to as the science
of uncertainty.
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 The

use of probability theory allows the

decision maker with only limited information
to analyze the risks and minimize the gamble
inherent, for example, in marketing a new
product or accepting an incoming shipment
possibly containing defective parts.

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It is a number that describes the chance that

something will happen. This number lies
between zero and one.
The closer a probability is to 0, the more
improbable it is the event will happen.
The closer the probability is to 1, the more sure
we are it will happen. Three key words are
used in the study of probability: experiment,
outcome and event
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 Experiment:

is a process that leads to the

occurrence of one and only one of several
possible observations.
An experiment has two or more possible
results and it is uncertain which will occur for
example rolling a die.
Outcome: this is a particular result of an
experiment.

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 For

example, the tossing of a coin is an

experiment. You may observe the toss of a
coin but you are unsure whether it will come
up heads or tails.
When one or more of the experiments
outcomes are observed, we call this an event.
For example all possible outcomes from a toss
of a die are [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

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 Event:

this is a collection of one or more of an

experiment for example some possible events
from a roll of die are; observe an even number,
observe a number greater than 3 or observe a
number 4 or less.

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10

 Example
Consider

the following experiment. Toss a coin

and observe whether the upside of the coin is
Head or Tail.
Two events may be occurred:
H: Head is observed,
T: Tail is observed.
The probability of an event A, denoted by P(A),
in general, is the chance A will happen.
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11

 Two

approaches to assigning probabilities are

the objective and subjective view points.
Objective probability is subdivided into
1. Classical probability
2. Empirical probability

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12

 Classical

probability
This is based on the assumption that the
outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.
Using the classical view point, the probability
of an event happening is computed by dividing
the number of favorable outcomes by the
number of possible outcomes:

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13

 The

probability P(A) of an event A is equal to

the number of possible simple events
(outcomes) favorable to A divided by the total
number of possible simple events of the
experiment, i.e.,

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14

where m= number of the simple

events into which the event A can be
decomposed.

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15

 Example:
Consider

an experiment of rolling a six-sided

die. What is the probability of the event an even
number of spots face up
Solution:
The possible outcomes are [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
The favorable outcomes [2, 4, 6]
Therefore the probability of an even number =
3/6= 0.5
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16

 Example
Consider

again the experiment of tossing a

balanced coin (see Example 4.1). In
this experiment the sample space consists of
two simple events: H (Head is observed ) and
T(Tail is observed ). These events are equally
likely.
Therefore, P(H)=P(T)=1/2.
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17

 Mutually

exclusive events
Under these events, the occurrence of one
event means that none of the other events can
occur at the same time.
The variable gender presents mutually
exclusive outcome, male or female.
For instance, an employee selected at random
is either male or female but can not be both.
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18

If an experiment has a set of events that includes

every possible outcome, such as the events an even
number and an odd number in the die-tossing
experiment, then the set of events is collectively
exhaustive.
For the die tossing experiment, every outcome will be
either even or odd.
Thus, in collective exhaustive events, at least one of
the events must occur when an experiment is
conducted.

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19

 Empirical

probability:
Another way to define probability is based on
relative frequencies. The probability of an
event happening is determined by observing
what fraction of the time similar events
happened in the past.

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20

 In

terms of a formula:
Probability of event happening= Number of
times event occurred in the past/ Total number
of observations.

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21

 Subjective

probability
If there is little or no past experience or
information on which to base a probability, it
may be arrived at subjectively.
Essentially, this means an individual evaluates
the available opinions and other information
and then estimates or assigns the probability.

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22

 This

probability is aptly called a subjective

probability. Thus, subjective concept of
probability means that a particular event
happening which is assigned by an individual
based on information available e.g. estimating
the likelihood that you will earn an A in this
module

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23

For every event A of the field S,

P A 0
If the event A is decomposed into the mutually
exclusive events B and C belonging to S then
P(A)=P(B)+P(C)
This property is called the theorem on the addition of
probabilities.
The probability of the event
A complementary to the
event A is given by the formula
=
P(A) .
P A1
The probability of the impossible event is zero,
P(0)=0.

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24

 The

probability of any event A lies between 0

and 1:
0 P A 1

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25

 Rules

of addition
Special rule of addition
To apply the special rule of addition, the
events mutually exclusive.
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive,
the special rule of addition states that the
probability of one or the other events
occurring equals the sum of their probabilities
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26

 i.e.

P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)

For three mutually exclusive events designated
A, B and C, the rule is written as
P(A or B or C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

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27

 Given

the following information in the table

below:
Weight

Event

Number
of
packages

Probabilit
y of
occurrenc
e

Underweigh
t

100

0.025

Satisfactory

3600

0.900

Overweight

300

0.075

4000

1.000

Total

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28

 What

is the probability that a particular

package will be either underweight or
overweight?
Solution
P(A) + P(C)= 0.025 + 0.075

= 0.10

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29

 A Venn

diagram is a useful tool to depict

addition or multiplication rules.
Assuming you have 3 mutually exclusive
events A, B and C, they can be illustrated
diagrammatically by use of Venn diagrams as
shown below:

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30

Event
A

Event
B

Event
C

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31

 This

is used to determine the probability of an

event occurring by subtracting the probability
of the event not occurring from 1. i.e.

P A 1 P A

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32

 A Venn

diagram illustrating the complement

rule is shown as

Even
t
A

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33

 Use

the complementary rule to show the

probability of a satisfactory bag is 0.900.
Show the solution using a Venn diagram
Solution
The probability that the bag is unsatisfactory
equals:
P(A) + P(C)= 0.025 + 0.075

=0.100
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34

 But

the bag is satisfactory if it is not under or

overweight i.e.
P(B)= 1- [P(A) + P(C)]

= 1- 0.100

= 0.900

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35

 Aor C 0.900

A
0.025

C
0.075

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36

A sample of employees of Worldwide Enterprise is to

be surveyed about a new pension plan. The
employees are classified as follows;
Classification

Event

Number of
employee

Supervisors

120

Maintenance

50

Production

1460

Management

302

Secretarial

68

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37

 a)

What is the probability that the first person

selected is:
i) either in maintenance or a secretary?
ii) not in management?
b) Draw a Venn diagram illustrating your
answers to part a)
c) Are the events in part a) i) complementary
or mutually exclusive or both?
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38

 The

outcomes of an experiment may not be

mutually exclusive.
When two or more events both occur
concurrently, the probability is called joint
probability
The following Venn diagram shows three
events are not mutually exclusive

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39

02/13/16

40

 This

rule for two events designated A and B is

written
P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B)- P(A and B)
.1
Equation 1 is what we call the general rule for
addition.

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41

 Thus,

if we compare the general and specific

rules of addition, the important difference is
determining if the events are mutually
exclusive.
If the events are mutually exclusive, then the
joint probability P(A and B)= 0 and we could
use the special rule of addition.

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42

 1)

The events A and B are mutually exclusive.

Suppose P(A)=0.3 and P(B)=0.2. What is the
probability of either A or B occurring?
What is the probability that neither A nor B will
happen?
2) The probabilities of the events A and B are
0.2 and 0.3 respectively. The probability that
both A and B occur is 0.15. What is the
probability of either A or B occurring?
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43

 Special

rule of multiplication
This requires that two events A and B are
independent.
Two events are independent if the occurrence
of one event does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other event.

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44

 For

two independent events A and B, the

probability that A and B will both occur is
found by multiplying the two probabilities i.e.
P(A and B)= P(A).P(B)
For 3 independent events A, B and C will be
P(A and B and C)= P(A).P(B).P(C)

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45

 A survey

by the American Automobile

Association (AAA) revealed 60% of its
members made airline reservations last year.
Two members are selected at random. What is
the probability both made airline reservations
last year?

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46

P ( R1 ) 60%
P ( R2 ) 60%

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47

 Where

R1andR2

First

and second members made reservation.

Since the number of AAA members is very
large, you may assume that the above
members are independent.
Therefore;

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48

P ( R1andR2 ) P R1 .P R2 0.60 0.60 0.36

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49

 This

is the probability of a particular event

occurring, given that another event has
occurred.
It can be written as
Conditional probability of A given B

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50

P A

P AandB

B
P B

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51

 Conditional

P B

probability of B given A

P AandB

A
P A

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52

Symbolically, the joint probability P(A and B) is found

by

B
P AandB P A.P B
A
P AandB P B .P A

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53

 Suppose

P(A)= 0.40 and P(B/A)=0.30. What

is the joint probability of A and B
P(A and B)= P(A). P(B/A)

= 0.40 0.30

= 0.12

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54

 If

the number of possible outcomes in an

experiment is small, it is relatively easy to
count them.
There are six possible outcomes, for example,
resulting from the roll of a die.

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55

 If

there are m ways of doing one thing and n

ways of doing another thing, there are m n
ways of doing both
In terms of a formula
Total number of arrangements = (m)(n).
The multiplication formula is applied to find
the number of possible arrangements for 2 or
more groups
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56

 Is

any arrangement of r objects selected from a

single group of n possible objects.
Note that the arrangements a b c and b a c are
different permutations.
The formula to count the total number of
different permutations is
n!
n Pr
n r !
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57

 Where

n= the total number of objects

r= the number of objects selected

n! means n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3).1
For instance 6! 6(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)=720

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58

electronic parts are to be assembled into a

plug-in unit for a TV set. The parts can be
assembled in any order. In how many different
ways can the 3 parts be assembled?
3!
3! 3 2 1

6
n Pr
3 3! 0!
1

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59

 The

Betts Machine shop inc, has eight screw

machines but only three spaces available in the
production area for the machines. In how
many different ways can the eight machines be
arranged in the three spaces available?

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60

 If

the order of the selected objects is not

important, any selection is called a
combination. The formula to count the
number of r object combinations from a set of
n objects is;
n!
n Cr
r! n r !

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61

 Solve

the following
5!
5 4 3 2 1

10
5 C2
2! 5 2! (2 1)(3 2 1)

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62

 Solve

the following

P4

P3

C2

C4

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63