Stock Index Futures: - Organization of Slides

Chapter 8
Stock Index Futures

Organization of Slides:
History
Futures Contract Specifications
Risk Management
Index Calculations (Appear in the Extra Section).
David Dubofsky and 8-1

Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Stock Index Futures, History I.
Trading began on February 24, 1982, when the Kansas City

Board of Trade introduced futures on the Value Line Index.
About two months later, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

introduced futures contracts on the S&P 500 index.
By 1986, the S&P 500 futures contract had become the second
most actively traded futures contract in the world, with over 19.5
million contracts traded in that year.
In May 1982, the NYSE Composite Index futures contract began

trading on the New York Futures Exchange, the NYFE.
Stock Index Futures, History II.
In July 1984, the Chicago Board of Trade began trading futures

contracts on the Major Market Index (MMI).
Dow Jones and Company went to court to block its attempts
to trade futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
But, in June 1997, Dow Jones and Company agreed to allow

DJIA options, futures, and options on futures to begin trading.
On October 6, 1997, futures on the DJIA began trading on the

Chicago Board of Trade.

In their short trading history, stock index

futures contracts have had a great
impact.
Trading in stock index futures has allegedly made the world's

stock markets more volatile than ever before.
Critics claim that individual investors have been driven out of the
equity markets because institutional traders' actions in both the
spot and futures markets cause stock values to gyrate with no
links to their fundamental values.
Many political figures have called for greater regulation, going

so far as to favor an outright ban on stock index futures trading.
Fortunately, such extreme measures have been avoided.

Stock index futures have become

irreplaceable in the modern world of
institutional money management.
Stock Index futures have revolutionized the art and
science of equity portfolio management as practiced by:
mutual funds
pension plans
endowments
insurance company
other money managers.

2 Important Details
A futures contract on a stock market index represents
the right and obligation to buy or to sell a portfolio of
stocks characterized by the index.
Stock index futures are cash settled.
That is, there is no delivery of the underlying stocks.
The contracts are marked to market daily.
On the last trading day, the futures price is set equal to the
spot index level and there is a final mark to market cash flow.

What is an Index?
An index is, in one sense, just a number that is computed in

order to measure the value of a portfolio of stocks.
Other indices have been constructed to track the values of other
types of securities, such as bonds and futures.
Still other indices track such economic indicators as the consumer
price index (CPI) or the index of leading indicators.
When constructing a stock market index, three issues are of

particular interest:
which stocks are in the index
how each stock is weighted
how the average is computed
We will describe three different stock market indices.

A Famous Price-Weighted Index: The

Dow Jones Industrial Average
When one asks: "How is the market doing?", it is
usually implicit that the question is refers to the DJIA.
Other stock market indices that are computed in the
same way as the DJIA, and which have futures and
options trading on them include the Nikkei 225 stock
index of Japanese stocks.

As of December 2001, the 30

stocks in the DJIA were:
Alcoa
American Express
AT&T
Boeing
Caterpillar
Citigroup
Coca Cola
Disney
DuPont
Eastman Kodak
Exxon Mobil
General Electric
General Motors
Hewlett Packard
Home Depot
Honeywell
IBM
Intel
International Paper
Johnson & Johnson
McDonalds
Merck
Microsoft
3-M
J.P. Morgan Chase
Philip Morris
Procter & Gamble
SBC Communications
United Technologies
Wal-Mart

Dow Jones Futures
Futures on the DJIA trade on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The value of stock underlying one DJIA futures contract equals

$10 times the futures price.
One tick is one Dow-point, and this equals $10.
Thus, if the DJIA futures price rises one tick, i.e., from 10813 to
10814, a trader who is long one contract profits by $10 because
the value of the stock underlying the contract rises from
$108,130 to $108,140.
A Famous Value-Weighted Average:

The S&P 500 Stock Index
A widely quoted benchmark portfolio.
Vanguard S&P 500 Trust.
SPDR. (http://www.amex.com).
Standard and Poors (S&P) webpage:
http://www.standardandpoors.com.
Many Futures Trade on

Value-Weighted Indices
Trading on the CME alone:
The S&P 500 futures (the futures face value is $250 times
the S&P 500 index level)
Mini-S&P 500 futures (the futures face value is only $50
times the S&P 500 index level)
The S&P Midcap 400 (400 middle-sized firms)
Nasdaq 100 (100 Largest Nasdaq Stocks)
Russell 2000 (small cap stocks)

S&P 500 stock index

futures contracts
Perhaps the most actively traded stock index futures
in the world.
The last trading day for this contract is the Thursday
before the third Friday of the delivery month.
Therefore, there are four delivery months:
March
June
September
December
Marking to Market
The smallest allowed price change (the tick) is 0.10 point,

which equals $25.
Thus, if the S&P 500 futures price falls from 1,019.40 to

1,019.30, the face value of the futures contract declines $25.
That is:
(1,019.40)(250) = $254,850
(1,019.30)(250) = $254,825
This one tick decrease in the futures price creates a mark to

market profit of $25 for an individual who is short one contract.

Portfolio Risk Management

Using Stock Index Futures
Portfolio managers often have reasons for

selling parts of their portfolio. For example:
a)
b)
c)
They may feel some stocks no longer offer adequate

returns for the risks the stocks possess;
They may have turned bearish (or less bullish) on the
overall market, or;
They may have to sell in order to provide cash for their
clients.
Stock index futures provide an efficient means to
achieve their objectives for reasons b) and c) above.
Stock index futures are also surrogates for the

stock purchases when the portfolio manager:
a)
has received an inflow of cash but has not decided which

stocks or market sectors in which to invest.
b)
has a growing bullishness about the market.
c)
wants to get market exposure in advance of a near-term

expected cash inflow.
d)
wants an investment that can be quickly liquidated to raise

cash, if needed.
Changing the Beta of a Portfolio

Capital Market Theory predicts that rational investors will only
hold combinations of two assets:
The market portfolio of all assets, (by definition, has a beta of 1.0)
A risk-less asset, (by definition, has a beta of 0.0)
If investors are relatively more risk averse or are bearish about

the prospects for the stock market, investors will lower the beta
of their portfolio by shifting a portion of their assets into risk-less
securities.
If investors are not very risk averse or if they are bullish about
the market, investors will raise their portfolio's beta by borrowing
additional capital and investing the borrowed funds in risky
securities.
Example: Adjusting the Beta of a

Portfolio with Stock Index Futures
Portfolio managers adjust their portfolio betas as they perceive

risk and return changes.
When they are bullish, i.e., they believe that the stock market
offers a relatively high expected return for a given level of risk,
they will increase the beta of their stock portfolio.
When they are bearish, (or simply believe that the risk of the
market has increased), they will decrease their portfolio's beta.

Equation to Adjust Beta:
A negative number indicates that futures should be sold in order

to lower the portfolio beta. A positive number means that futures
should be bought.
N=
- P
F
Portfolio Value
(Futures Price) Multiplier
Note: Generally, F = 1, and the Futures Multiplier for the S&P500

is 250.

Using the Equation, I.
A portfolio manager is concerned that the stock market will

temporarily decline in the next few days.
The manager does not wish to incur the commission costs and
price pressure of selling stocks and then repurchasing them
after the anticipated decline.
Thus, the manager decides to use futures contracts to hedge

against the expected market decline.

Using the Equation, II.

An equity fund manager owns a portfolio of $20 million in stocks with a
portfolio beta of 1.20.
Suppose, the S&P 500 index level is 1275 and the observed futures
price is 1280. What is the risk-minimizing position?
N=
0.0 - 1.20
1
$20,000,000
= -75.
(1280) 250
The Key: Set the target portfolio beta, d, equal to 0.0. Then, using the
equation above, we conclude that the manager should sell 75 futures
contracts.
Suppose the manager was right about the market's movement, and
the S&P 500 declines to 1224, which is a 4% decline in the market.
Using the Equation, III.
If beta was estimated accurately, the value of the managers

equity portfolio should decline by 4.8% (1.20 times 4%). This
results in a loss in the capital value of the portfolio of $960,000.
Now assume that the futures price also declines by 4%, to

1228.80.
A futures price decline of 51.2 points results in a profit of

$12,800 on one futures contract. On a position of 75 short
futures contracts, the profit would be $960,000.
Here, the hedge eliminated the effects of the market decline.

Stock Index Arbitrage

Stock Index Arbitrage is an attempt to exploit any futures
mispricing relative to the index level.
When futures prices lie outside their no-arbitrage bounds,
arbitrageurs will quickly act to realize the (near) riskless profits
by buying cheap stock and selling futures (buy programs), or
buying cheap futures and selling stock (sell programs).
Between July 1, 2002 and August 30, 2002, program trading
averaged 34.6% of total NYSE volume, and stock index
arbitrage as a percentage of total program trading ranged
between 8.4% and 14.3%, with an average of 11.9%.
Arbitrage Bounds
In practice, if F > S + CC - CR, then arbitrageurs' purchases of
stock increase stock prices (these are called buy programs).
Their sales of futures will depress futures prices, until equilibrium
is again reached (F S + CC - CR), and no arbitrage
opportunities exist.
Similarly, if F < S + CC - CR, the buying of cheap futures and the
sale of expensive stock (sell programs).
Their purchases of futures will increase futures prices, until
equilibrium is again reached (F S + CC - CR), and no arbitrage
opportunities exist.
Program Trading
Program trading is a technique for trading a stock portfolio in one single
order.
The NYSE defines a program trade as: "a wide range of portfolio trading
strategies involving the purchase or sale of a basket of 15 stocks or more,
and valued at more than $1 million".
Program trading may involve stock index arbitrage, option replication
strategies, or asset allocation shifts (such as between equities and bonds),
etc.
Recent growth in program trading has arisen from brokers who offer
institutions the ability to trade large portfolios of stocks with low cost and
little price impact.
In 2001, program trading accounted for almost 30% of total NYSE volume.
An Actual Pricing Example, 2/5/99
SPH: 1,243.50
S&P Index: 1,239.40
T-bill rate: 4.35%
Days to Expiration: 42
Annual Dividend Yield: 1.32% (assume this is the
dividend yield in terms of its future value)
What is the theoretical futures price, and the Deviation
from Fair Value (DFV)?
DFV = Factual Ftheoretical

Let t = the time until delivery, in years.
Note that dividends = dtS
Ftheoretical = S + Srt Sdt
Ftheoretical = 1239.40 + (1239.40)(0.0435)(42/365) (1239.40)(0.0132)(42/365) = 1243.72
Fobs is too low by 0.22 index points.
So, if TC are less than 0.22 to perform reverse cash
and carry arbitrage, then do it!

Index Arbitrage with Transaction Costs

Let hb and hl = the unannualized borrowing rate and
lending rate, respectively.
Let Sbid and Sask = the spot index value, based on
stocks bid quotes and asked quotes, respectively.
Let TC1 and TC2 = transaction costs (commissions,
etc.) necessary to perform reverse cash and carry
arbitrage, and cash and carry arbitrage, respectively.
Sbid (1+hl(0,T)) - div(1+hb(,T)) - TC1 < F <
Sask(1+hb(0,T)) - div(1+hl(,T)) + TC2
The DOT
In 1976, the New York Stock Exchange introduced its Designated

Order Turnaround (DOT) system, which was improved and
renamed Super DOT in November 1984.
Super DOT is a computerized order handling system that

guarantees that any market order of less than 2100 shares of a
stock will be executed within three minutes at the prevailing bid
price (for a market sell order) or asked price (for a market buy
order) at the time the order was entered, or at better prices if
possible.
Today, the average order through SuperDot is transmitted,

executed and reported back to the originating firm in 22 seconds.
DOT and Stock Index Arbitrage
Originally, DOT was designed to alleviate the traffic around

specialists' trading posts by automatically handling the orders of
small individual investors.
Runners do not have to hand-carry small orders to the

specialist. Instead, they are electronically transmitted from order
rooms to the specialists' posts.
Little did the designers of DOT realize that their system would
be adopted by index arbitrageurs, who now enter orders to buy
or sell portfolios of stocks, including the composition of any
index replicating portfolio (e.g., 1000 shares of IBM, 1267
shares of GM, etc.).
Computerized Trading
Whenever an arbitrage opportunity arises a trader can literally
push a button to submit these orders to buy (at the asked) or sell
(at the bid) the entire basket of stocks.
On average, the execution of the trade is reported back to the
buyer or seller in 22 seconds.
At the same time, the arbitrageur will trade the necessary stock
index futures contracts.
Larger orders (more than 2099 shares of one stock) are handled
less efficiently, with trades occurring only after an arbitrageur's
human representative carries the order to the specialists' posts.
Risks of Stock Index Arbitrage
Even with Super DOT, there are some risks to index arbitrage.
Large orders to trade securities are not guaranteed any price,
and prices can change quickly in the few minutes that it takes to
execute all of the desired trades.
Arbitrageurs' orders to buy stock may create upward price

pressure on those stocks unless there happens to be a
contemporaneous flow of sell orders, or the specialist is willing
to reduce his inventory of stock.
Similarly, program selling will often lead to price declines in the

spot stock market.
Some Extra Slides on this Material
Note: In some chapters, we try to include some extra slides in

an effort to allow for a deeper (or different) treatment of the
material in the chapter.
If you have created some slides that you would like to share
with the community of educators that use our book, please send
them to us!

Three Basic Weighting Schemes

Capitalization-Weighting (AKA Value Weighting or
Market-Value Weighting):
Stocks held in proportion to their market value.
Large-cap companies have more influence on the index.

Three Basic Weighting Schemes, Cont.

Price Weighting: Equal number of shares invested in
each stock, therefore, the price is the weight.
The highest-priced stocks have the largest weight.
Berkshire Hathaway
Equal Dollar Weighting: Same dollar investment in

each stock.
The lowest-priced stocks have more influence.

Assume a $1,000,000 Portfolio,

Value-Weighting, Data from 3/11/1994
Company
Price
Shares Capitalization Value Value

(millions)
(millions)
Weight Shares
Am. Express
28.625
485.445
13,895.9
0.0560
1,956
GE
105.250
852.935
89,771.4
0.3618
3,437
3M
103.250
215.791
22,280.4
0.0898
870
Merck
32.125 1,282.316
41,194.4
0.1660
5,167
Exxon
65.250 1,241.618
81,015.6
0.3265
5,003
248,157.7 1.0000
16,434
Total: 334.500
Total:
Note: Shares = $1,000,000*Weight / Price


Price-Weighting, Data from 3/11/1994
Company
Am. Express
Price
Price Price-Weighted
Weight
Shares
28.625
0.086
2,990
GE
105.250
0.315
2,990
3M
103.250
0.309
2,990
Merck
32.125
0.096
2,990
Exxon
65.250
0.195
2,990
334.500
1.000
2,990
Note: Shares = $1,000,000 / 334.500 = 2,990

DJIA Index Details, I.
The DJIA is computed by adding the prices of the thirty

component stocks, and dividing the sum by a divisor.
The divisor is printed in the Wall Street Journal every day and is
also available in the equity product information area at
http://www.cbot.com.
For example, on April 24, 2001, the divisor for the DJIA was
0.15369402. On September 9, 1999, the divisor was
0.19740463.
The divisor is changed when one of two events occurs.

Periodically, one of the thirty stocks in the DJIA may be
removed, and another company's stock is substituted.
This will happen when a component stock is taken over by

another company or one of the corporations goes bankrupt.
DJIA Index Details, II.

For example, Anaconda, a component of the DJIA, was bought by
Atlantic Richfield (ARCO) in 1976. Thus, a new component stock
(which was MMM) was chosen to replace Anaconda.
Dow Jones may decide that the DJIA no longer representative of
"the market", so the composition will change.
This occurred on November 1, 1999
IN: Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft, and SBC Communications
OUT: Chevron, Goodyear, Sears Roebuck, and Union Carbide.
So, anytime there is a change in the portfolio of the constituent

stocks, or if there are splits, stock dividends, or mergers, the DJIA
divisor will change because Dow Jones and Company wants to
remove the impact on the index from these events.
NB: The DJIA is not adjusted to account for regular dividend
payments.
Example: Changing the Divisor

Day 1 of Index:
Company
Am. Express
GE
3M
Merck
Exxon
Sum:
Index:
Price
28.625
105.250
103.250
32.125
65.250
334.500
66.90 (Divisor = 5)
Before Day 2 starts, we want to replace Merck with Intel, selling at $22.
To Keep the value of the Index the same, i.e., 66.90:
Am. Express
GE
3M
Intel
Exxon
Sum:
Sum / Divisor = 66.90 if Divisor is:
28.625
105.250
103.250
22.000
65.250
324.375
4.848654709
DJIA Index Details, III.

To construct a portfolio that is equivalent to the DJIA, an investor
must buy an equal number of shares of each of the component
stocks.
Maintaining the proper underlying portfolio is complicated by the
payment of cash dividends and stock distributions.
Still, the DJIA is an easy index to replicate, as it has only 30
stocks, each of which is very actively traded.
If a stock selling for $100/share increases in value by 5%, then
the DJIA will increase by 5/divisor points.
If a stock selling for $20/share rises in price by 5%, then the
DJIA will rise by only 1/divisor points.

Equal-Weighting, Data from 3/11/1994
Company
Am. Express
Price
Equal Equal-Weighted
Weight
Shares
28.625
0.200
6,987
GE
105.250
0.200
1,900
3M
103.250
0.200
1,937
Merck
32.125
0.200
6,226
Exxon
65.250
0.200
3,065
1.000
20,115
Shares = $1,000,000*0.20 / Price

Many stock market indices are ValueWeighted Averages
In the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), a stock's correlation

with the market portfolio is the factor that determines its price,
and that market portfolio is value-weighted.
Besides the NYSE and S&P Indices, other value-weighted

indices include the AMEX Market Value Index, the NASDAQ
Composite Index, the Russell 2000 Index, and the Wilshire
5000.
The levels of these and yet other indices are presented daily in
the Wall Street Journal. While each index is a different portfolio
of stocks, the method of computing each index is the same.
Value-Weighted Index Movements.

Day 1:
Day 2:
Company
Price
Am. Express 28.625
GE
105.250
3M
103.250
Merck
32.125
Exxon
65.250
Total Shares
Market Capitalization
(millions)
(millions)
485.445
13,896
852.935
89,771
215.791
22,280
1,282.316
41,194
1,241.618
81,016
Total MV(1):
248,158
Divisor (Set by Vendor):
248.1576686
Day 1 Index Level:
1000.00
Company
Price
Am. Express 29.000
GE
110.000
3M
92.000
Merck
37.000
Exxon
67.000
Total Shares
(millions)
(millions)
485.445
14,078
852.935
93,823
215.791
19,853
1,282.316
47,446
1,241.618
83,188
Total MV(2):
258,388
Day 2 Index Level:
1041.22

Note Bene: The Day 3 index can be

calculated in two ways:
Day 3:
Company
Am. Express
GE
3M
Merck
Exxon
Price
25.000
108.500
93.700
37.875
62.000
Total Shares
(millions)
(millions)
485.445
12,136.1
852.935
92,543.4
215.791
20,219.6
1,282.316
48,567.7
1,241.618
76,980.3
Total MV(3):
250,447.2
Day 3 Index Level:
1009.23
Day 2 Index
Market Value Day 2

Index Level Day 1
Market Value Day 1
Day 2 Index
Market Value Day 2

Index Level Day 0
Market Value Day 0


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Chapter 8

Stock Index Futures

David Dubofsky and 8-1

Stock Index Futures, History I.

Trading began on February 24, 1982, when the Kansas City

About two months later, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

In May 1982, the NYSE Composite Index futures contract began

Stock Index Futures, History II.

In July 1984, the Chicago Board of Trade began trading futures

But, in June 1997, Dow Jones and Company agreed to allow

On October 6, 1997, futures on the DJIA began trading on the

David Dubofsky and 8-3

In their short trading history, stock index

Trading in stock index futures has allegedly made the world's

Many political figures have called for greater regulation, going

Fortunately, such extreme measures have been avoided.

Stock index futures have become

David Dubofsky and 8-5

David Dubofsky and 8-6

An index is, in one sense, just a number that is computed in

When constructing a stock market index, three issues are of

We will describe three different stock market indices.

A Famous Price-Weighted Index: The

David Dubofsky and 8-8

As of December 2001, the 30

David Dubofsky and 8-9

Dow Jones Futures

Futures on the DJIA trade on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The value of stock underlying one DJIA futures contract equals

One tick is one Dow-point, and this equals $10.

A Famous Value-Weighted Average:

Many Futures Trade on

David Dubofsky and 8-12

S&P 500 stock index

The smallest allowed price change (the tick) is 0.10 point,

Thus, if the S&P 500 futures price falls from 1,019.40 to

This one tick decrease in the futures price creates a mark to

David Dubofsky and 8-14

Portfolio Risk Management

Portfolio managers often have reasons for

They may feel some stocks no longer offer adequate

Stock index futures are also surrogates for the

has received an inflow of cash but has not decided which

has a growing bullishness about the market.

wants to get market exposure in advance of a near-term

wants an investment that can be quickly liquidated to raise

Changing the Beta of a Portfolio

If investors are relatively more risk averse or are bearish about

Example: Adjusting the Beta of a

Portfolio managers adjust their portfolio betas as they perceive

David Dubofsky and 8-18

Equation to Adjust Beta:

A negative number indicates that futures should be sold in order

Note: Generally, F = 1, and the Futures Multiplier for the S&P500

David Dubofsky and 8-19

Using the Equation, I.

A portfolio manager is concerned that the stock market will

Thus, the manager decides to use futures contracts to hedge

David Dubofsky and 8-20

Using the Equation, II.

Using the Equation, III.

If beta was estimated accurately, the value of the managers

Now assume that the futures price also declines by 4%, to