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Kingsley Davis - The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in The World
Kingsley Davis - The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in The World
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Urbanphenomenaattractsociologicalat- ertheless,it can be said that our informatentionprimarilyfor fourreasons. First, tion,both statisticaland nonstatistical,
is
suchphenomenaare relatively
recentin hu- muchbettertodaythanwhenAdna Weber
man history.Compared to most other wrote his classic treatiseon comparative
aspectsof society-e.g.,language,religion, urbanization
at the turnofthepresentcenstratification,
orthefamily-citiesappeared tury.'
onlyyesterday,
and urbanization,
meaning
THE RISE OF EARLY URBAN CENTERS
thata sizableproportion
of thepopulation
livesin cities,has developedonlyin thelast
Because the archeologicalevidence is
few momentsof man's existence.Second, fragmentary,
the role of citiesin antiquity
urbanismrepresents
a revolutionary
change has oftenbeenexaggerated.
in
Archeologists
in the wholepatternof social life.Itselfa particular
areinclinedto call anysettlement
productofbasiceconomicand technological a "city"whichhad a fewstreetsand a pubdevelopments,it tends in turn,once it lic buildingor two.Yet thereis surelysome
comesintobeing,to affecteveryaspectof point in not mistakinga townfora city.
existence.It exercisesits pervasiveinflu- Moreover,whatis important
is notonlythe
ence not only within the urban milieu appearanceofa fewtownsor citiesbut also
strictly
definedbut also in theruralhinter- theirplace in thetotalsocietyofwhichthey
land. The thirdsource of sociologicalin- werea part.Thus,eventhoughinparticular
terestin citiesis the fact that,onceestab- regionsaround the Mediterraneanand in
lished,theytendto be centersofpowerand southernand westernAsia manytownsand
influence
throughout
the wholesociety,no a fewcitiesarosepriorto theChristianEra,
matterhowagricultural
and ruralitmaybe. therewere severelimitationsboth on the
Finally,the processof urbanizationis still size thatsuchcitiescouldreachand on the
occurring;
manyof theproblemsassociated proportionof the total population that
withit are unsolved;and, consequently,
its couldlivein them.
futuredirection
and potentialities
are stilla
Speakinggenerally,one can agree with
matterofuncertainty.
This paperexamines the dominantviewthatthediversetechnothe firstand lastpoints:theorigin,growth, logical innovationsconstitutingNeolithic
and presentrateofprogressofurbanization culturewerenecessaryforthe existenceof
in the world.Sincegood statisticson urban settled communities.2
Yet one should not
concentration
do not existeven today for
1 Adna F. Weber, The Growthof Cities in the
substantialpartsof the world,and hardly
existforany part duringmostof the time NineteenthCentury(New York: Columbia Universince citieshave been in existence,we are sityPress,1899).
2V. GordonChilde,Man Makes Himself (rev.
forcedto relyon whatevercredibleevidence
can be foundand so can reachonlybroad ed.; London: Watts, 1941), chaps. v-vi; What
Happened in History (London and New York:
conclusionsconcerningearly periods and Penguin Books, 1946 [firstprintedin 1942]),
onlyapproximations
forrecenttimes.Nev- chans.iii-iv.
429
430
431
432
433
and, above all, therisein productiveactivi- urbanizedcountry,England. In 1801, aland thoughLondonhad alreadyreachednearly
ty,firstin highlyorganizedhandicraft
new formof the millionmark (865,000),England and
eventuallyin a revolutionary
production-thefactoryrunby machinery Wales had less than 10 per cent of their
thus populationin citiesof 100,000or more.By
and fossil fuel. The transformation
achievedin thenineteenth
centurywas the 1901no less than35 percentofthepopulatrueurbanrevolution,
forit meantnotonly tion of England and Wales was livingin
the riseof a fewscatteredtownsand cities citiesof 100,000or more,and 58 per cent
but the appearance of genuineurbaniza- was livingin citiesof 20,000or more. By
tion,in the sensethata substantialportion 1951 these two proportionshad risen to
of thepopulationlived in townsand cities. 38.4 and 69.3 per cent,respectively.
Britainwas in thevan ofurbandevelopTHE WORLD TREND FROM 1800 TO 195012
ment. A degreeof urbanizationequal to
Urbanizationhas, in fact, gone ahead that she had attained in 1801 was not
much fasterand reached proportionsfar
greaterduringthe last centuryand a half
TABLE 1
thanat any previoustimein worldhistory.
PERCENTAGE OF WORLD'S POPULAThe tremendous
growthin worldtradedurTION LIVING IN CITIES
ingthisperiodhas enabledtheurbanpopulationto draw its sustenancefroman ever
Cities of
Cities of
widerarea. Indeed,it can trulybe said that
100,000
20,000
or More
or More
thehinterland
of today'scitiesis theentire
world.Contemporary
Britain,Holland,and
1800......
2.4
1.7
Japan, for example, could not maintain
4.3
2.3
1850.......
9.2
5.5
1900......
theirurban populationsolely from their
13.1
20.9
1950......
own territory.The numberof rural inhabitantsrequiredto maintainone urban
inhabitantis stillgreat-greaterthan one achievedby any othercountryuntilafter
ratio 1850.Thereafterthe Britishrate of urbanwould imaginefromthe rural-urban
withineach of the highlyurbanizedcoun- ization began slowly to decline, whereas
tries.The reasonis thatmuchofagriculture thatofmostothercountriescontinuedat a
and highlevel.By assembling
aroundtheworldis stilltechnologically
availabledata and
backward.Yet therecan be no preparingestimateswheredata werelackeconomically
forparticularcountries ing,we have arrivedat figures
doubtthat,whether
on urbanizaor forthe entireglobe, the ratio of urban tionin theworldas a whole,beginning
with
dwellersto thosewho growtheirfood has 1800, the earliestdate forwhichanything
risenremarkably.
This is shownby thefact like a reasonableestimatecan be obtained.
thattheproportion
ofpeoplelivingin cities The percentageof the world'spopulation
in 1950 is higherthan that foundin any foundlivingin citiesis as shownin Table 1.
particularcountryprior to moderntimes It can be seen that the proportionhas
and manytimeshigherthan thatformerly tendedto do a bit betterthandoubleitself
theearthas a whole.
characterizing
and that by 1950 the
each half-century
The rapidityof urbanizationin recent worldas a wholewas considerably
moreurtimescan be seen by lookingat the most banizedthanBritainwas in 1800.As every12The writeracknowledges with pleasure the one knows,theearth'stotalpopulationhas
rapidratesince1800,
collaborationof Mrs. Hilda Hertz Golden in the grownat an extremely
statisticalwork on which this and succeedingsec- reaching2.4 billionby 1950.But theurban
tionsare based. Such workhas been done as partofa
populationhas grownmuchfaster.In 1800
continuingprogramof comparativeurban research
in the populationdivisionof the Bureau of Applied therewereabout 15.6 millionpeople living
in citiesof 100,000or more.By 1950it was
Social Research, Columbia University.
434
435
436
20.5
4.2
48.7
13.0
TABLE 4
PERCENTAGEPOPULATIONINCREASE
OUTSIDE CENTRAL CITIES IN 44
METROPOLITANDISTRICTS
rest
metropolitan
couldbe established.
whichcomparability
18 Ibid., p.9.
437
How utrbanized
theworldwilleventually
become is an unanswerablequestion.As
stated earlier,thereis no apparentreason
whyit shouldnot becomeas urbanizedas
the mosturbancountriestoday-withperhaps 85-90percentofthepopulationliving
in cities and townsof 5,000 or more and
practicingurban occupations.Our present
degreeof urbanizationin advanced countriesis stillso new that we have no clear
idea of how such completeworldurbanization would affecthuman society;but the
chancesare that the effectswouldbe proFUTURE TRENDS IN WORLD
found.
URBANIZATION
In visualizingthe natureand effectsof
Speculation concerningthe future of completeurbanizationin the future,howurbanizationis as hazardousas that con- ever,one mustguardagainstassumingthat
cerningany otheraspectof humansociety. cities will retain theirpresentform.The
aggreFollowingthe directionof moderntrends, tendencyto formhugemetropolitan
decentralized
however,one may concludethat,withthe gates whichare increasingly
continuebutprobablywill
industrialrevolution,for the firsttime in willundoubtedly
historyurbanization
beganto reacha stage not go so far as to eliminatethe central
fromwhichtherewas no return.The cities businessdistrictaltogether,thoughit may
it may
and thedegree greatlyweakenit. At theperiphery,
ofantiquitywerevulnerable,
and thecountryofurbanization
reachedwas so thininmany wellbe thatthemetropolis
societiesas to be transitory.
Today virtually side, as the one expands and the other
of
world
is
more
everypart the
urbanized shrinks,will merge together,until the
than any regionwas in antiquity.Urban- boundariesof one sprawlingconurbation
izationis so widespread,so mucha part of will touchthoseof another,withno interat all. The world's
industrialcivilization,
and gainingso rapid- veningpurecountryside
ly, that any returnto rurality,even with populationdoublesitselftwicein a century,
major catastrophes,appears unlikely.On becomingat the same time highlyurbanthecontrary,
sinceeverycityis obsolescent ized, and as new sources of energyare
ofcentrifugal
metroto somedegree-moreobsolescenttheolder tapped,thepossibility
enhanced.If
it is-the massive destructionof many politangrowthis enormously
to workcouldbe donewiththe
would probably add eventually to the commuting
speedofsoundand cheaply,one wouldnot
impetusof urbangrowth.
The factthattherateofworldurbaniza- mindlivingtwo hundredmilesfromwork.
advancefromnow
tion has shown no slackeningsince 1800 Almostanytechnological
suggeststhatwe are farfromtheendofthis on is likelyto contributemoreto the centhanto thecentripetal
tendency.It
process,perhapsnot yet at the peak. Al- trifugal
turn
out thaturbanization
in thesense
may
thoughthe industrialcountrieshave shown
andconcentratthecountryside
a declinein theirrates,thesecountries,
be- ofemptying
cause theyembraceonlyabout a fourthof inghugenumbersin littlespace willreverse
theworld'spopulation,have notdampened itself-not,however,in the directionof repeopleto thefarmbutratherin that
of hu- turning
the worldtrend.The three-fourths
of
themmoreevenlyovertheland
spreading
who
counin
live
manity
underdeveloped
triesare stillin theearlystagesofan urban- for purposes of residenceand industrial
izationthatpromisesto be morerapidthan work."Rurality"wouldhave disappeared,
that whichoccurredearlierin the areas of leavingonlya newkindofurbanexistence.
northwest
Europeanculture.
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY