Noah Remmert

Pre Cal
2nd period
Regression Project

Number of Warheads in USSR nuclear stockpile

50000
40000

Number of
Warheads in USSR
nuclear stockpile

30000
20000
10000
0
0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

I sat for a
long time trying to think about a set of data that would not be linear,
and what I came up with was sort of random but seems to work well. I
chose to gather data on the size of the Russian
Size of stockpile
nuclear stockpile from the time that it was created to
current day. When I chose my data, I actually expected it to correlate
more closely to a quadratic function. If you think about it, they would
have started with zero, then by the peak of the cold war, would have
gathered a large arsenal, and then it would slowly drop again over time
as the Soviet Union collapsed. This data would be most useful to
historians interested in the cold war and possibly even nuclear
engineers interested in learning more about the history of the
technology and its weaponization.
Years since 1949

Noah Remmert
Pre Cal
2nd period

R^2 value: .8827387626

Regression equation:
y=.0560074247 x 2+ (7.71220997 ) x 3+ 310.5124093 x 2 + (3048.68031 ) x+ 4294.893411
As you can see from the scatterplot above, and the r 2 value
that goes along with my regression equation, my data correlated
closest with a quartic function. At first glance, it might look like a
parabola and a quadratic function, but due to the slope and placement
of points near the x-axis, it is quartic. My r 2 value was around .88,
which isnt a perfect correlation by any means, but after testing many
different types of functions with my data, this was the closest
correlation I could come up with. When I predicted three y-values with
my regression function and three different x- values (which represent
years from 1949), the results continued the quartic shape of the data.
x=70
y= 11,711.058
x=74
y= 33,356.82
x=80
y=93,092.49
these predictions follow the pattern of a quartic function, however,
arent really realistic in the real world.
In conclusion, it is interesting that a quartic equation was the
best fit for my data, but it does leave me at an interesting ending
point. With my particular set of data, I have found the limitation of the
usefulness of the function as it applies to the real world. According to
the function alone, my predictions would have the size of the stockpile
drastically rising again in the next few years. This of course in the real
world isnt going to happen, so while this function did a good job of
representing my data in this window, the function does have its
limitations.

Noah Remmert
Pre Cal
2nd period

Works Cited
1. "NRDC: Nuclear Data - Table of USSR/Russian Nuclear Warheads,
1949-2002." National Resources Defense Council. N.p., n.d. Web. 08
Sept. 2014.