A Question to Ponder

Due Saturday, Apr 2 @5:00

I want each of you to independently think about the following and email me your
response on Saturday so that Ill be able to distill them and we can try to reach a
conclusion by next Mondays class.
Recall that our 4 main objectives for setting pumping rates in Option 1 are
(1) Respect ALL property rights (and not just those with historical permits
obtained under ROC)
(2) Assure that water goes to its highest and best use
(3) Provide funds for mitigation when necessary
(4) Prudent management of the aquifers
I thought we had accomplished that with the following formula that would freely
grant pumping rights based on the following formula:
X af/sa = (5%TERS + 50 x Annual average recharge)/50 years
Total Surface Acres underlying aquifer in that GCD
The idea is that X would be adjusted upward or downward incrementally every 5
years to keep you on a path that would use 5%TERS over 50 years.
In theory, this plan would accomplish all 4 objectives. This system protects
correlative rights and satisfies (1). By freely granting permits irrespective of use,
the market would assure condition (2) was met. By the GCD charging a fee for each
acre foot pumped, this would provide a fund to cover mitigation (3) issues. Finally,
by restricting overall pumping to no more than 5%TERS over 50 years, most
hydrologists (except Oliver) would say this is prudent management (condition (4)).
The problem is that when we confronted the theory with real world data for the
three GCDs (Evergreen, the Bluebonnet, and the Neches-Trinity), we found a
problem.
When one divides by total surface acres in the Evergreen, for example, X turns out
to be .33 acre feet. Note that the implied MAGthe numerator is 610,000 af
(27,000,000+70,000*50)/50. Curiously, the MAG of 610,000 af/yr is about 3 times
the existing consumption, suggesting there is a lot of room for water usage to grow.
The problem of course if every existing pumper were told they could only pump .33
af/yr and would have to go out and lease additional water rights to sustain their
current usage, all hell would break loose! For example, an irrigator might have to
lease 5 times his existing surface to have enough water to sustain 2 af/sa of
irrigated land.
So here is what I want you to ponder. How could we adjust the above formula to get
something that is workable?

I dont need a 5 page writeup. One or two pages should do. I want each of you to
work independently so we see if we can come up with something that satisfies our
original criteria and might work in practice.
Problems & Solutions:

In terms of the exampleEvergreen GCD. The annual recharge rate of

Carrizo-Wilcox is not 91,416; instead it is 1,002,000 af. Hence, inserting the
wrong number into the equation makes the final result smaller than it should
be. Based on original assumptions, the acre feet per surface acre should be
shown as follows:

Evergreen GCD
5% TERS
Annual Recharge
Surface Acres
Current
Consumption
Calculated MAG
Acre-feet/ surface
a
Current
Consumption/sa

26,135,4
00
1,002,00
0
2,461,00
0
170,000
1,524,70
8
0.62
0.069

If using the original equation, based on our

calculation, for Evergreen GCD landowners,
only .62 af/sa could be permitted to them.
Hence, at the beginning, all the landowners
can only get the .62 af/sa. In order to fulfill the
water needs of irrigators, the irrigators can
only lease a certain amount of water based on

their historical usage.

Lack of information on the surface acres underlying aquifer in that GCD: In

the original calculation, we use GCDs acreage instead of the actual surface
acres underlying aquifer in that GCD. If there is only a slight proportion of the
GCDs acreage lying above the underlying aquifer, the calculation could be
higher than the one we had.

Third, 5% TERS on the denominator can be changed based on different

aquifer conditions. Hence, the percent of TERS should be adjusted through
aquifer conditions instead of being set arbitrarily. Hence, the permitting acre
foot per surface acre would be different for all aquifers. Also, if there are
some minor aquifers underlying some districts, the 5% TERS should be the
sum of the 5% TERS of major aquifer and minor aquifer.

Fourth, the original calculation can be adjusted to:

X af/sa = (A%TERS + 50 x Annual average recharge)/50 years
Total Surface Acres of the aquifer
A% is determined by aquifers geological models;

The numerator changes from total surface acres underlying the aquifer in
that GCD to total surface acres of the aquifer. On the denominator, TERS and
annual average recharge rate are all based on aquifer. One of the method to
treat landowners the same is to use total surface acres of the aquifer as the
numerator to calculate the amount of groundwater per surface acre.
This modified equation is better to be used in policy option 2.