Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BCG Detailedpresentation
BCG Detailedpresentation
volumes to 2020
Final Report Detail
March 2, 2010
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Approach
Segmented mail into
components with common
behaviors
Leveraged global
benchmarks
Projected revenues
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Standard Mail
Flyers
Bank statements
Catalogs
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(%)
100
Bills / Invoices
22 B (12%)
C2C
5 B (3%)
Standard Mail
Ad Letters
32 B (18%)
80
Misc
C2B
60
4 B (2%)
2009 Total
177 B (100%)
General
B2C Mail
14 B (8%)
Bank Statements 8 B (5%)
40
C2B
pmts
20 9 B (5%)
First-Class Ad Letters
11 B (7%)
Newsletters 5 B (3%)
Postcards 3 B (2%)
Packages
3 B (2%)
Catalogs
12 B (7%)
Sender: Consumer
Volume
Magazines
8 B (4%)
Flyers
24 B (14%)
Business
volume
First Class Business
Standard
Magazines
All mail
volume (%)
Both
Packages
Results
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Key drivers
All Mail
First-Class
Standard
Packages
Other
metrics
213
200
177
180
160
150 (-15%)
140
138 (-22%)
120
118 (-34%)
2020
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Sender
perspective
Consumer
perspective
Worst-case
benchmark
(from EU)
Fiscal year
2020 projection represents 30% decline off of 2006 peak
1. Sender view
Source: BCG analysis
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Standard Mail
Growth in economy
Growth in economy
97
100
84
-4% annual decline1
80
Sender
perspective
60
53 (-37%)
44 (-47%)
40
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Consumer
perspective
Worst-case
benchmark
(from EU)
Fiscal year
1. Sender view
Source: BCG analysis
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10
104
100
Slight increase1
83
86 (+4%)
Sender
perspective
75 (-9%)
Consumer
perspective
80
69 (-17%)
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Worst-case
benchmark
(from EU)
Fiscal year
11
(%)
100
C2C
80 4 B (3%)
22%
60
40
18%
Magazines
Packages
General
B2C mail
11 B (7%)
Misc
C2B
3 B (2%)
24%
24%
Magazines
7 B (5%)
17%
Flyers
26 B (18%)
Bank statements
47%
4 B (3%)
B2B/C pmts 2 B (1%) 46%
C2B
payments
20
4 B (3%)
57%
0
Sender: Consumer
volume
First-Class
Ad Letters
8 B (5%)
30%
Catalogs
29%
9 B (6%)
Large Envelopes 4 B (3%)
26%
Newsletters 4 B (3%)
Postcards 3 B (2%)
Business
volume
Packages
4 B (3%)
10%
40%
+1% or more
0% to -24%
-25% to -60%
14%
12%
Both
Note: based on Sender view. Segments do not sum to 150B pieces due to rounding.
Source: BCG analysis
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12
Sender view
Representative source
"The goal shifted from how well I can use the mail to how much
mail can I push out of the system"
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13
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14
Other posts
varying
levels 11of
Countries
leadinghave
in broadband
penetration
Broadband household penetration
(in % of all households)
Postal volume
(% of reference year '03)
100
120
75
100
50
80
US
Denmark
Germany
25
US
Denmark
Germany
60
03
04
05
06
07
08
09E
03
04
05
06
07
08
09E
15
2
R2 = 0.57
Sweden
Finland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Germany
France
-2
Spain
Australia
Japan
-4
South Korea
United States
20
40
60
80
100
16
Implications
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17
Average pieces
per delivery point
per delivery day
'09-'20 change
(%)
2000
2009
2020
Total Mail
4.9
3.8
2.8
-26
First-Class Mail
2.5
1.8
1.0
-44
Standard Mail
2.1
1.8
1.6
-11
- 44%
Total Mail
1.8
1.4
1.0
-29
First-Class Mail
1.0
0.7
0.4
-43
Standard Mail
0.4
0.4
0.3
-25
18
Standard Mail
90% of homes
with broadband
Privacy loses to
online targeting
for customer
acquisition
1.3% YoY GDP
growth
+10%
153B
158B
163B
0%
144B
150B
Base Case
155B
-10%
135B
140B
146B
-10%
0%
+10%
First-Class Mail
Likelihood
Higher
Lower
19
USPS-specific
9/11-type event
20
Structural changes
are required to
close the gap
Pricing enhancements
Sales and marketing
Key account management
Improved product bundling
Efficiency improvements to
processes and routes
Further automation: sequencing,
printing, etc
Product development
B2C parcel proposition
Value chain extensions (print, DM)
Intelligent Mail, Hybrid mail
Network consolidation
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21
1. Some households will get non time-critical mail on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays while others will get their non time-critical mail on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays;
2. As part of its Masterplan II announced in 2006; 3. Statement from TNT CEO Peter Bakker during Vision 2015 announcement on December 3, 2009
Source: Report "The Evolution of the European Postal Market since 1997", company reports; press search;
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22
23
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24
Bills / Invoices
Transaction Mail
44%
Volume (B)
25
22.0
1.1
2.2
1.2
20
3.9
3.9
15
1.6
10
12.5
5
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Organic
growth
Autopay /
change in
billing cycle
Online
presentment
(biller)
Online
presentment
(consolidator)
Mobile /
ATM
presentment
2020
Source: BCG analysis, customer interviews, USPS RPW Report, USPS Household Diary Survey, USPS volume tracking data
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25
24%
B2C Correspondence
Transaction Mail
Volume (B)
20
15
14.4
0.7
1.7
0.2
2.7
1.9
10
11.0
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Organic
growth
Industry
growth /
mailings
per
customer
Online
channel
Mobile /
email
channel
2020
Source: BCG analysis, customer interviews, USPS RPW Report, USPS Household Diary Survey, USPS volume tracking data
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26
47%
Bank statements
Transaction Mail
Volume (B)
12
8.5
0.4
0.8
0.3
2.9
0.5
0.6
4.5
Mobile /
ATM
presentment
2020
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Organic
growth
Account
consolidation
Online
Online
presentpresentment
ment
(institution) (3rd party
consolidator)
Source: BCG analysis, customer interviews, USPS RPW Report, USPS Household Diary Survey, USPS volume tracking data
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27
57%
46%
C2B Payments
B2B Payments
Transaction Mail
2.1
0.7
6.8
3.1
B2B payments
3.6
C2B payments
8.5
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Online
Mobile/
Organic Autopay / Online
ATM
growth change in payment payment
reporting (direct) (consol- payment
idator)
cycle
2020
Source: BCG analysis, customer interviews, USPS RPW Report, USPS Household Diary Survey, USPS volume tracking data
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28
30%
Advertising Mail
Volume (B)
15
0.7
1.2
11.4
3.2
1.4
10
3.2
0.4
8.0
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Online
2020
1. Shift to Standard Mail indicates migration of advertisements from First-Class Mail to Standard Mail
Source: BCG analysis, customer interviews, USPS RPW reports 2009, USPS Household Diary Survey 2008
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29
Advertising Mail
18%
60
3.2
2.0
10.3
8.4
40
32.1
1.5
1.1
Content
addressable TV
38.0
5.3
20
0
2009
Mail
Organic
rebound growth
2020
30
Flyers
Advertising Mail
10%
Volume (B)
40
4.0
2.0
4.4
6.2
3.5
30
23.7
4.8
2.6
26.2
2020
20
10
2009
Mail
Organic
rebound growth
Gain
from
newspaper
Private Online1
carrier
delivery
(PCD)
Mobile
31
29%
Catalogs
Advertising Mail
Volume (B)
20
15
2.3
12.6
2.2
1.0
2.9
1.4
10
0.4
8.9
0
2009
Mail
rebound
Organic
growth
Online
Improved
targeting
Mobile
Content
addressable TV
2020
32
Transaction Mail
100
80
100
80
60
100
40
71
60
100
40
20
55
20
0
2009
2020
2009
2020
34
Transaction Mail
100
100
80
80
60
60
100
40
73
20
100
40
60
20
0
2009
2020
2009
2020
35
Transaction Mail
100
80
Payments could
decline ~40%
Score1
100
80
60
100
40
60
100
40
73
58
20
20
0
2009
2020
2009
2020
36
Advertising Mail
100
Ad letters could
decline ~40%
Remaining of '09 values
(%)
Score1
100
80
80
60
100
81
40
60
20
100
40
60
20
0
2009
2020
0
2009
2020
37
Advertising Mail
100
Flyers could
decline ~40%
Remaining of '09 values
(%)
Score1
100
80
80
60
60
100
86
40
100
40
20
64
20
0
2009
2020
0
2009
2020
38
Advertising Mail
100
Catalogs could
decline ~40%
Remaining of '09 values
(%)
Score1
100
80
80
60
100
83
40
20
60
100
40
61
20
0
2009
2020
2009
2020
39
Internet survey
80
60
40
54
20
29
71
63
33
42
51
85
81
74
56
62
84
66
0
<2
2 to 5
5 to 8
8 to 11
11 to 15
15-20
20+
40