Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3

Province Region Riding CPC LPC NDP GPC BQ OTH

Alberta Calgary Calgary – Nosehill 61.05 16.73 8.01 12.14 0 1.82
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre 50.18 17.92 10.64 18.39 0 2.62
Alberta Calgary Calgary Centre-North 50.7 15.21 13.45 17.86 0 2.53
Alberta Calgary Calgary East 58.58 12.86 11.09 14.6 0 2.62
Alberta Calgary Calgary Northeast 50.23 21.47 7.91 9.86 0 10.27
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southeast 64.59 12.44 6.98 14.01 0 1.73
Alberta Calgary Calgary Southwest 66.32 11.03 7.16 12.93 0 2.31
Alberta Calgary Calgary West 53.15 21.58 6.22 14.92 0 3.88
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton – St. Albert 54.72 17.81 13.8 11.76 0 1.65
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton Centre 46.42 27.39 12.19 11.45 0 2.3
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton East 43.26 19.6 24.54 10.28 0 2.07
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Leduc 53.73 20.44 11.96 11.78 0 1.83
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Mill 51.11 22.96 13.62 9.94 0 2.12
Woods--Beaumont
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Sherwood 39.51 14.91 12.2 11.97 0 21.15
Park
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton--Spruce 60.27 14.93 11.24 11.67 0 1.65
Grove
Alberta Edmonton Edmonton-- 37.81 13.68 34.9 11.02 0 2.34
Strathcona
Alberta Rural Alberta Crowfoot 73.27 7.43 7.07 10.32 0 1.65
Alberta Rural Alberta Fort McMurray-- 56.11 14.55 14.43 10.74 0 3.91
Athabasca
Alberta Rural Alberta Lethbridge 60.2 11.77 12.88 10.3 0 4.6
Alberta Rural Alberta Macleod 70.29 7.81 6.1 12.7 0 2.84
Alberta Rural Alberta Medicine Hat 67.67 8.01 9.46 9.9 0 4.71
Alberta Rural Alberta Peace River 59.49 9.36 12.56 10.66 0 7.68
Alberta Rural Alberta Red Deer 67.86 7.99 9.79 12.29 0 1.83
Alberta Rural Alberta Vegreville-- 69.61 6.92 8.72 12.46 0 2.04
Wainwright
Alberta Rural Alberta Westlock--St. Paul 64.47 12.25 9.36 10.72 0 2.95
Alberta Rural Alberta Wetaskiwin 69.87 7.59 8.05 12.08 0 2.15
Alberta Rural Alberta Wild Rose 66.15 7.9 7.48 16.21 0 2.01
Alberta Rural Alberta Yellowhead 64.95 6.63 11.31 12.86 0 3.99
British Columbia Interior British Columbia 23.83 10.5 48.52 15.25 0 1.64
Southern Interior
British Columbia Interior Cariboo--Prince 45.85 11.51 27.02 11.81 0 3.55
George
British Columbia Interior Chilliwack--Fraser 51.54 10.74 21.11 13.37 0 2.98
Canyon
British Columbia Interior Kamloops-- 36.91 12.86 35.76 12.79 0 1.42
Thompson--Cariboo
British Columbia Interior Kelowna--Lake 46.36 15.75 18.34 17.41 0 1.89
Country
British Columbia Interior Kootenay--Columbia 50.48 7.14 26.2 14.57 0 1.37

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
British Columbia Interior Okanagan-- 48.21 12.78 20.29 16.87 0 1.6
Coquihalla
British Columbia Interior Okanagan--Shuswap 42.52 11.46 24.72 18.17 0 2.87
British Columbia Interior Prince George--Peace 55.26 7.47 20.52 14.8 0 1.69
River
British Columbia Interior Skeena--Bulkley 28.47 6.14 49.61 10.12 0 5.41
Valley
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Abbotsford 56.33 12.38 16.81 11.83 0 2.41
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells 33.88 24.41 26.76 11.5 0 3.19

British Columbia Lower-Mainland Langley 50.52 12.58 19.78 14.11 0 2.76

British Columbia Lower-Mainland Newton--North Delta 24.44 31.57 30.63 10.88 0 2.23
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple 40.59 9.55 35.09 12.06 0 2.44
Ridge--Mission
British Columbia Lower-Mainland South Surrey--White 45.42 22.16 16.76 13.67 0 1.74
Rock--Cloverdale
British Columbia Lower-Mainland Surrey North 25.76 12.69 39.36 10.36 0 11.57
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--Douglas 26.27 21.27 39.29 11.15 0 1.77
British Columbia Vancouver Burnaby--New 25.47 16.14 44.17 11.93 0 2.04
Westminster
British Columbia Vancouver Delta--Richmond East 44.63 20.89 19.82 12.82 0 1.59
British Columbia Vancouver New Westminster-- 28.77 12.91 44.49 11.13 0 2.45
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver North Vancouver 33.35 35.47 13.91 15.49 0 1.52
British Columbia Vancouver Port Moody-- 45.17 14.14 24.85 12.36 0 3.23
Westwood--Port
Coquitlam
British Columbia Vancouver Richmond 38.18 32.29 15.42 11.71 0 2.15
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Centre 22.02 28.49 27.39 19.56 0 2.28
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver East 7.45 16.5 57.85 15.3 0 2.65
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Kingsway 16.94 30.82 37.68 11.37 0 2.94
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Quadra 27.46 42.31 13.52 14.54 0 1.91
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver South 26.98 38.23 22.11 10.4 0 2.04
British Columbia Vancouver West Vancouver-- 34.37 26.65 19.51 17.76 0 1.46
Sunshine Coast--Sea
to Sky Country
British Columbia Vancouver Esquimalt--Juan de 24.28 30.98 28.63 13.9 0 1.96
Island Fuca
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Alberni 37.55 9.58 34.58 15.74 0 2.3
Island
British Columbia Vancouver Nanaimo--Cowichan 28.83 7.11 47.96 14.13 0 1.71
Island
British Columbia Vancouver Saanich--Gulf Islands 33.84 30.61 15.89 17.4 0 2.01
Island
British Columbia Vancouver Vancouver Island 36.28 5.38 43.04 13.37 0 1.68
Island North
British Columbia Vancouver Victoria 19.31 18.71 43.63 16.19 0 1.9
Island

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 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Brandon--Souris 50.38 14.09 16.66 17.05 0 1.56
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Churchill 28.41 34.13 24.03 8.73 0 4.45
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Dauphin--Swan 54.45 16.98 15.94 11.01 0 1.37
River--Marquette
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Portage--Lisgar 63.06 14.65 6.65 12.39 0 2.99
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Provencher 59.44 16.9 10.45 11.02 0 1.94
Manitoba Rural Manitoba Selkirk--Interlake 50.44 11.9 26.15 10.29 0 0.96
Manitoba Winnipeg Charleswood--St. 45.42 29.18 13.57 11.12 0 0.46
James--Assiniboia
Manitoba Winnipeg Elmwood--Transcona 34.18 10.54 43.04 10.7 0 1.28
Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul 43.17 19.69 26.15 9.64 0 1.1
Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface 35.93 38.68 14.14 10.21 0 0.79
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg Centre 14.67 21.63 46.36 14.96 0 2.12
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg North 14.44 17.26 57.19 9.79 0 1.07
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 35.96 38.67 13.59 10.28 0 1.26
Manitoba Winnipeg Winnipeg South 31.98 44.35 11.68 11.5 0 0.23
Centre
New Brunswick ALL Acadie--Bathurst 14.61 24.01 53.75 6.65 0 0.73
New Brunswick ALL Beauséjour 27.46 46.25 15.2 10.33 0 0.51
New Brunswick ALL Fredricton 36.84 34.66 15.84 11.68 0 0.73
New Brunswick ALL Fundy Royal 47.41 20.72 20.6 10.4 0 0.61
New Brunswick ALL Madawaska-- 30.07 42.93 17.94 8.42 0 0.38
Restigouche
New Brunswick ALL Miramichi 35.79 38.27 15.93 8.2 0 1.56
New Brunswick ALL Moncton--Riverview-- 30.18 42.57 15.08 11.45 0 0.46
Dieppe
New Brunswick ALL New Brunswick 51.38 23.24 15.35 9.12 0 0.66
Southwest
New Brunswick ALL Saint John 39.2 36.61 13.95 8.98 0 1.02
New Brunswick ALL Tobique--Mactaquac 48.98 29.14 12.01 9.18 0 0.44
Newfoundland ALL Avalon 40.54 41.64 10.03 4.89 0 2.65
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Bonavista--Gander-- 27.57 58.48 6.13 4.71 0 2.86
and Labrador Grand Falls--Windsor
Newfoundland ALL Humber--St. Barbe-- 19.73 59.59 11.87 3.63 0 4.93
and Labrador Baie Verte
Newfoundland ALL Labrador 20.46 59.4 10.09 5.89 0 3.91
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL Random--Burin--St. 27.36 46.67 18.02 4.99 0 2.7
and Labrador George's
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s East 25.57 17.86 47.78 4.58 0 3.97
and Labrador
Newfoundland ALL St. John’s South- 26.81 35.58 29.01 4.68 0 3.67
and Labrador Mount Pearl

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Northwest ALL Western Arctic 25.54 19.6 40.57 9.91 0 4.13
Territories
Nova Scotia ALL Cape Breton--Canso 22.24 48.41 19.85 10.34 0 -1.09
Nova Scotia ALL Central Nova 43.67 8.36 22.63 25.13 0 -0.05
Nova Scotia ALL Cumberland-- 36.02 17.15 17.92 6.99 0 21.66
Colchester--
Musquodoboit Valley
Nova Scotia ALL Dartmouth--Cole 21.43 38.85 30.4 9.64 0 -0.58
Harbour
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax 18.11 28.41 42.08 11.91 0 -0.77
Nova Scotia ALL Halifax West 20.62 42.69 26.56 10.61 0 -0.73
Nova Scotia ALL Kings--Hants 24.88 43.16 19.11 9.82 0 0.3
Nova Scotia ALL Sackville-- Eastern 20.16 15.93 55.45 8.99 0 -0.84
Shore
Nova Scotia ALL South Shore -- St. 35.56 24.5 29.71 9.51 0 0.54
Margaret’s
Nova Scotia ALL Sydney--Victoria 18.38 48.19 24.42 9.48 0 -0.79
Nova Scotia ALL West Nova 37.48 36.13 16.52 9.07 0 0.49
Nunavut ALL Nunavut 25.76 31.98 22.39 12.45 0 7.16
Ontario Eastern Ontario Carleton--Mississippi 51.68 22.65 10.64 13.25 0 1.52
Mills
Ontario Eastern Ontario Glengarry--Prescott-- 42.67 35.24 10.63 9.86 0 1.35
Russell
Ontario Eastern Ontario Haliburton--Kawartha 48.17 23.5 14.51 11.81 0 1.75
Lakes--Brock

Ontario Eastern Ontario Kingston and the 26.63 40.23 16.96 14.27 0 1.65
Islands
Ontario Eastern Ontario Lanark--Frontenac-- 51.02 21.64 12.78 12.07 0 2.23
Lennox and
Addington
Ontario Eastern Ontario Nepean--Carleton 51.22 24.48 10.03 12.72 0 1.3
Ontario Eastern Ontario Northumberland-- 42.57 29.57 14.75 11.74 0 1.11
Quinte West
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa Centre 19.83 25 38.4 14.48 0 2.04
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa South 31.77 44.99 9.64 10.99 0 2.36
Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa West--Nepean 40.82 33.88 12.08 10.66 0 2.3

Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Orléans 40.4 37.24 10.41 10.29 0 1.41

Ontario Eastern Ontario Ottawa--Vanier 24.32 43.11 17.68 12.71 0 1.93
Ontario Eastern Ontario Peterborough 39.35 31.02 16.8 11.1 0 1.48
Ontario Eastern Ontario Prince Edward-- 45.79 27.23 13.46 11.55 0 1.73
Hastings
Ontario Eastern Ontario Stormont--Dundas-- 51.94 21.15 12.32 9.31 0 5.03
South Glengarry
Ontario Golden Ajax – Pickering 33.11 43.95 9.67 10.98 0 2.04
Horsehoe/905

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Ontario Golden Ancaster--Dundas-- 40.02 28.28 17.85 12.14 0 1.46
Horsehoe/905 Flamborough--
Westdale
Ontario Golden Bramalea--Gore-- 32.18 44.6 11.78 9.51 0 1.67
Horsehoe/905 Malton
Ontario Golden Brampton West 36.01 40.69 11.69 10.13 0 1.23
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Brampton-- 32.55 41.03 13.55 11.24 0 1.38
Horsehoe/905 Springdale
Ontario Golden Brant 36.3 32.24 18.13 10.97 0 2.1
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Burlington 42.65 32.69 12.04 11.07 0 1.3
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Dufferin--Caledon 47.47 22.36 9.49 18.75 0 1.68
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Durham 45.12 27.78 11.3 13.48 0 2.07
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Haldimand--Norfolk 40.03 31.28 11.44 8.78 0 8.22
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Halton 42.44 36.77 7.9 11.22 0 1.41
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton Centre 17.87 18.92 48.46 11.74 0 2.75
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Hamilton East-- 21.22 28.63 38.35 8.68 0 2.87
Horsehoe/905 Stoney Creek
Ontario Golden Hamilton Mountain 26.73 22.75 39.71 9.2 0 1.36
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Markham--Unionville 27.8 51.87 9.46 8.49 0 2.14
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga East-- 28.47 48.97 10.62 9.19 0 2.49
Horsehoe/905 Cooksville
Ontario Golden Mississauga South 35.97 42.75 8.73 10.99 0 1.3
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 28.25 48.12 11.21 10.3 0 1.87
Horsehoe/905 Brampton South
Ontario Golden Mississauga--Erindale 37.37 42 8.53 10.39 0 1.45
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Mississauga-- 32.09 43.99 9.88 10.81 0 2.98
Horsehoe/905 Streetsville
Ontario Golden Newmarket--Aurora 41.04 35.73 8.18 11.65 0 3.15
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Niagara Falls 41.06 27.74 18.29 11.6 0 1.05
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Oak Ridges-- 37.11 41.86 8.62 10.5 0 1.66
Horsehoe/905 Markham
Ontario Golden Oakville 41.17 38.34 7.22 11.94 0 1.08
Horsehoe/905

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Ontario Golden Oshawa 36.62 17.6 33.21 10.59 0 1.72
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Pickering-- 28.78 48.97 10.13 10.28 0 1.59
Horsehoe/905 Scarborough East
Ontario Golden Richmond Hill 30.27 47.8 9.07 11.14 0 1.46
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden St. Catharines 39.26 29.93 18.24 10.49 0 1.83
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Thornhill 40.14 42.54 6.15 9.12 0 1.79
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Vaughan 27.79 51.33 8.33 10.74 0 1.56
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Welland 27.77 29 31.02 9.46 0 2.49
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden Whitby--Oshawa 44.12 29.3 13.14 11.53 0 1.66
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Golden York--Simcoe 49.92 21.65 11.52 13.48 0 3.17
Horsehoe/905
Ontario Northern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin-- 17.02 32.62 39.87 8.74 0 1.5
Kapuskasing
Ontario Northern Ontario Kenora 33.38 30.96 25.4 8.89 0 1.11
Ontario Northern Ontario Nickel Belt 16.13 30.41 41.94 8.78 0 2.49
Ontario Northern Ontario Nipissing-- 30.71 41.72 15.54 10.29 0 1.48
Timiskaming
Ontario Northern Ontario Parry Sound-- 42.74 29.03 11.3 15.15 0 1.53
Muskoka
Ontario Northern Ontario Renfrew--Nipissing-- 56.49 20.28 10.58 10.08 0 2.31
Pembroke
Ontario Northern Ontario Sault Ste. Marie 29.23 21.55 38.89 8.3 0 1.77
Ontario Northern Ontario Sudbury 21.2 32.58 32.71 10.93 0 2.32
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay--Rainy 22.07 31.51 36.18 8.27 0 1.72
River
Ontario Northern Ontario Thunder Bay-- 21.92 29.88 34.52 11.13 0 2.3
Superior North
Ontario Northern Ontario Timmins--James Bay 13.97 25.27 51.95 7.44 0 1.11
Ontario Southwestern Barrie 45.07 27.97 11.03 14.21 0 1.47
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Bruce--Grey--Owen 43.56 19.65 9.4 25.19 0 1.94
Ontario Sound
Ontario Southwestern Cambridge 44.78 24.98 16.74 12.05 0 1.2
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Chatham-Kent--Essex 42.7 28.45 16.88 10.27 0 1.44
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Elgin--Middlesex-- 42.83 23.61 19.18 10.92 0 3.2
Ontario London
Ontario Southwestern Essex 35.51 32.16 22.31 8.58 0 1.19
Ontario

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Ontario Southwestern Guelph 26.02 33.05 20.41 18.05 0 2.22
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Huron--Bruce 38.19 34.67 14.22 9.35 0 3.32
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener Centre 31.33 36.86 17.55 12.18 0 1.82
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Conestoga 42.34 28.34 14.27 13.63 0 1.17
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Kitchener--Waterloo 30.3 37.97 14.87 14.59 0 2.02
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Lambton--Kent-- 46.83 24.66 14.75 10.84 0 2.66
Ontario Middlesex
Ontario Southwestern Leeds--Grenville 49.97 20.3 14.96 12.78 0 1.74
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London North Centre 28.46 37.09 17.01 15.73 0 1.45
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London West 33.43 33.81 17.86 12.53 0 2.12
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern London--Fanshawe 26.25 26.88 34.98 10.11 0 1.53
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Niagara West-- 46.24 25.36 14.3 10.69 0 3.17
Ontario Glanbrook
Ontario Southwestern Oxford 47.14 20.68 16.51 10.85 0 4.57
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Perth--Wellington 43.84 23.12 16.38 12.82 0 3.58
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Sarnia--Lambton 41.97 24.18 19.6 10.61 0 3.38
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe North 42.73 30.15 11.43 13.92 0 1.51
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Simcoe--Grey 48.68 24.18 10.21 13.04 0 3.64
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Wellington--Halton 50.8 23.84 9.69 13.08 0 2.33
Ontario Hills
Ontario Southwestern Windsor West 18.57 19.64 49.96 9.57 0 2.01
Ontario
Ontario Southwestern Windsor--Tecumseh 20.9 21.73 45.84 10.02 0 1.26
Ontario
Ontario Toronto Beaches--East York 14.03 39.32 32.03 12.76 0 1.6
Ontario Toronto Davenport 7.84 45.49 31.24 12.72 0 2.46
Ontario Toronto Don Valley East 27.24 47.99 12.37 10.43 0 1.72
Ontario Toronto Don Valley West 33 46.39 8.87 10.03 0 1.46
Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence 34.87 42.19 9.29 11.78 0 1.62
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre 30.76 49.39 8.41 9.34 0 1.85
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North 25.38 49.54 13.43 9.01 0 2.38
Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore 32.5 43.18 11.37 11.13 0 1.56

Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park 11.16 38.53 36.07 11.78 0 2.2

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre 25.53 49 14.68 9.42 0 1.11
Ontario Toronto Scarborough 24.42 41.89 19.59 12.26 0 1.58
Southwest
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 23.89 56.66 9.06 8.58 0 1.55
Agincourt
Ontario Toronto Scarborough-- 25.85 49.5 13.81 9.25 0 1.33
Guildwood
Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge 17.87 57.81 12.1 7.31 0 4.66
River
Ontario Toronto St. Paul’s 22.79 49.12 14.03 12.35 0 1.47
Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre 14.16 51.98 16.51 14.92 0 2.18
Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth 7.51 29.84 45.12 15.37 0 1.9
Ontario Toronto Trinity – Spadina 8.98 35 41.48 11.86 0 2.42
Ontario Toronto Willowdale 27.54 50.19 8.76 10.49 0 2.77
Ontario Toronto York Centre 31.4 44.92 11.91 10.09 0 1.42
Ontario Toronto York South--Weston 20.55 48.64 19.93 9.39 0 1.25
Ontario Toronto York West 13.51 58.73 16.22 9.18 0 2.11
PEI ALL Cardigan 29.12 50.35 7.79 8.8 0 6.02
PEI ALL Charlottetown 29.87 46.61 12.47 9.7 0 0.92
PEI ALL Egmont 36.39 44.37 9.06 9.36 0 0.22
PEI ALL Malpeque 35.05 43.53 9.43 11.57 0 0.22

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Québec Eastern Bas-Richelieu-- 13.83 16.66 7.63 7.77 52.68 1.6
Townships Nicolet--Bécancour
Québec Eastern Brome--Missisquoi 13.13 28.52 8.87 8.59 38.11 2.93
Townships
Québec Eastern Compton--Stanstead 15.95 20.94 9.89 9.3 42.56 1.52
Townships
Québec Eastern Drummond 17.47 17.63 13.02 8.18 42.33 1.53
Townships
Québec Eastern Richmond-- 22.49 12.21 8.8 8.04 46.5 2.12
Townships Arthabaska
Québec Eastern Shefford 14.83 23.09 10.34 8.66 41.72 1.52
Townships
Québec Eastern Sherbrooke 11.35 18.09 11.83 6.47 50.2 2.22
Townships
Québec Laurentides Berthier--Maskinongé 18.51 18.39 9.47 8.37 43.83 1.59

Québec Laurentides Joliette 13.71 13.06 9.4 9.19 53.22 1.59

Québec Laurentides Laurentides--Labelle 9.53 23.52 9.04 8.89 47.51 1.68
Québec Laurentides Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 10.8 22.51 11.22 9.06 44.98 1.59
Québec Laurentides Montcalm 9.9 20.2 12.04 8.08 48.31 1.62
Québec Laurentides Repentigny 10.25 13.37 12.68 7.61 54.56 1.69
Québec Laurentides Rivière – des – Milles 13.97 16.52 11.32 9.14 47.74 1.47
– Îles
Québec Laurentides Terrebonne--Blainville 9.93 13.54 11.74 8.45 54.67 1.83

Québec Montérégie Beauharnois-- 16.13 14.55 10.64 8.16 49.21 1.47

Salaberry
Québec Montérégie Brossard--La Prairie 13.62 30.61 11.3 8 34.81 1.81
Québec Montérégie Chambly--Borduas 11.79 14.42 12.29 9.05 51.15 1.46
Québec Montérégie Châteauguay--Saint- 12.31 20.67 12.14 8.28 45.28 1.48
Constant
Québec Montérégie Longueuil--Pierre- 11.04 19.77 12.68 8.62 46.21 1.85
Boucher
Québec Montérégie Saint-Hyacinthe-- 17.9 12.25 11.75 8.28 48.34 1.64
Bagot
Québec Montérégie Saint-Jean 12.84 16.04 9.73 8.88 50.55 2.12
Québec Montérégie Saint-Lambert 11 26.91 12.54 8.55 39.49 1.68
Québec Montérégie Vaudreuil-Soulanges 15.89 24.15 9.02 8.88 40.47 1.74
Québec Montérégie Verchères--Les 11.27 13.43 12.46 8.07 53.26 1.67
Patriotes

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Québec Montreal Ahuntsic 5.75 36.85 9.19 7.74 39.09 1.55
Québec Montreal Alfred-Pellan 11.25 26.95 10.72 8.42 40.91 1.91
Québec Montreal Bourassa 8.63 46.06 8.05 7.86 27.67 1.9
Québec Montreal Hochelaga 5.77 19.53 15.47 9.23 47.32 2.85
Québec Montreal Honoré-Mercier 10.06 40.38 9.94 7.96 29.99 1.83
Québec Montreal Jeanne-Le Ber 6.09 30.7 13.52 9.21 37.51 3.12
Québec Montreal La Pointe-de-l'Île 6.96 20.05 11.44 7.8 51.66 2.25
Québec Montreal Lac-Saint-Louis 17.33 42.74 13.86 12.34 12.37 1.52
Québec Montreal LaSalle-- Émard 8.86 37.55 12.51 8.88 29.17 3.18
Québec Montreal Laurier--Sainte-Marie 1.21 19.71 16.38 12.11 47.64 3.12
Québec Montreal Laval 13.99 25.83 11.41 8.42 38.7 1.81
Québec Montreal Laval--Les-Îles 13.05 36.34 10.77 8.05 29.79 2.17
Québec Montreal Mount Royal 17.44 54.33 9.69 9.18 7.34 2.18
Québec Montreal Notre-Dame-de- 10.48 42.33 14.68 11.44 18.9 2.33
Grâce--Lachine
Québec Montreal Outremont 6.26 35.85 33.9 8.85 13.17 2.13
Québec Montreal Papineau 5.65 38.71 9.3 8.15 36.07 2.28
Québec Montreal Pierrefonds--Dollard 20.16 43.49 10.05 11.13 13.51 1.82
Québec Montreal Rosemont--La Petite- 2.92 17.03 15.11 9.99 52.75 2.37
Patrie
Québec Montreal Saint-Bruno--Saint- 10.83 20.41 12.12 8.74 46.12 1.94
Hubert
Québec Montreal Saint-Laurent-- 10.23 60.44 9.56 6.32 11.29 2.32
Cartierville
Québec Montreal Saint-Léonard--Saint- 9.02 56.7 10.31 7.55 14.4 2.18
Michel
Québec Montreal Westmount--Ville- 11.09 46.13 20.67 12.13 8.02 2.11
Marie
Québec Nord Abitibi--Baie-James-- 20 19.73 8.23 8.29 42.39 1.53
Nunavik--Eeyou

Québec Nord Abitibi-- 13.46 20.87 10.06 7.34 46.29 2.13

Témiscamingue
Québec Nord Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 24.38 19.17 7.77 7.58 39.69 1.57
Québec Nord Jonquière--Alma 42.02 11.88 6.33 6.15 32.13 1.64
Québec Nord Manicouagan 17.57 15.77 8.12 7.94 49.1 1.66
Québec Nord Rivière-du-Nord 10.35 12.16 12.23 8.22 55.16 2.04
Québec Nord Roberval--Lac-Saint- 35.19 10.14 5.86 7.44 40.01 1.53
Jean
Québec Nord Saint-Maurice-- 19.6 18.51 8.22 8.13 44.06 1.64
Champlain
Québec Nord Trois-Rivières 19.54 16.17 9.28 8.05 45.4 1.72
Québec Outaouais Argenteuil-- 14.52 18.92 10.81 8.65 45.61 1.64
Papineau--Mirabel
Québec Outaouais Gatineau 10.57 25.29 20.26 7.62 34.63 1.78
Québec Outaouais Hull--Aylmer 10.09 32.51 17.59 9.72 28.33 1.92
Québec Outaouais Pontiac 25.39 23.06 13.86 9.37 26.43 2.05

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauce 52.28 10.44 7.64 8.97 19.12 1.71
Québec Québec/Beauce Beauport--Limoilou 28.45 17.09 11.2 7.88 32.97 2.57
Québec Québec/Beauce Charlesbourg--Haute- 31.46 13.6 11.2 7.63 33.96 2.31
Saint-Charles
Québec Québec/Beauce Lévis--Bellechasse 38.45 12.76 9.64 8.01 27.73 3.56
Québec Québec/Beauce Lotbinière--Chutes- 42.32 10.65 11.37 7.75 26.22 1.86
de-la-Chaudière
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Hébert 21.96 20.08 10.69 7.65 37.3 2.48
Québec Québec/Beauce Louis-Saint-Laurent 39.26 12.24 9.56 7.76 29.06 2.28
Québec Québec/Beauce Mégantic--L'Érable 37.05 11.9 8.44 7.57 33.74 1.46
Québec Québec/Beauce Montmorency-- 20.81 15.16 8.11 7.87 46.68 1.53
Charlevoix--Haute-
Côte-Nord
Québec Québec/Beauce Portneuf--Jacques- 2.07 12.19 10.32 8 34.46 33.12
Cartier
Québec Québec/Beauce Québec 19.7 15.2 10.99 8.36 43.44 2.47
Québec Sud du Saint Gaspésie--Îles-de-la- 18.56 25.77 7.09 7.97 39.05 1.71
Laurent Madeleine
Québec Sud du Saint Haute-Gaspésie--La 14.89 29.98 6.27 8.03 38.35 2.64
Laurent Mitis--Matane--
Matapédia
Québec Sud du Saint Montmagny--L'Islet-- 25.48 18.51 6.71 7.82 39.8 1.84
Laurent Kamouraska--Rivière-
du-Loup
Québec Sud du Saint Rimouski-Neigette-- 13.23 18.96 10.43 7.11 45.9 4.53
Laurent Témiscouata--Les
Basques

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local

 Riding-by-Riding Projection May 3
Saskatchewan ALL Battlefords-- 52.68 11.52 19.88 9.35 0 6.32
Lloydminster
Saskatchewan ALL Blackstrap 44.95 25.15 17.47 10.29 0 1.9
Saskatchewan ALL Cypress Hills-- 55.26 16.47 14.41 10.72 0 2.87
Grasslands
Saskatchewan ALL Desnethé-- 42.62 30.89 14.98 8.96 0 2.29
Missinippi--Churchill
River
Saskatchewan ALL Palliser 36.98 19.82 31.64 9.57 0 1.74
Saskatchewan ALL Prince Albert 49.71 14.06 24.72 9.44 0 1.81
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Lumsden-- 40.57 21.31 25.87 9.82 0 2.18
Lake Centre
Saskatchewan ALL Regina--Qu'Appelle 41.2 16.97 29.99 9.98 0 1.61
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon--Humboldt 42.95 16.03 25.59 10.46 0 4.72
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 39.74 8.81 39.53 9.27 0 2.39
Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatchewan ALL Saskatoon-- 47.64 19.14 20.55 10.76 0 1.67
Wanuskewin
Saskatchewan ALL Souris--Moose 57.93 12.38 13.34 10.44 0 5.66
Mountain
Saskatchewan ALL Wascana 26.29 49.97 12.62 9.41 0 1.45
Saskatchewan ALL Yorkton--Melville 60.5 9.74 17.7 9.83 0 1.98
Yukon ALL Yukon 24.18 42.94 14.48 14.91 0 3.24

Aaron Ginsberg All Politics Is Local