Jaren Lewis

STAT 220 Homework 2

April 15, 2010

Chapter 13
2. The first game is a better choice: the odds are 1 in 52 in (i) and 1 in 52*51=2652 in
(ii).
4.

• Card 1: 4 aces in 52 cards; 4/52=1/13.5

• Card 2: 3 aces in 51 cards; 3/51=1/17

• Card 3: 2 aces in 50 cards; 2/50=1/25

• Card 4: 1 ace in 49 cards; 1/49=1/49

• Card 5: 4 kings in 48 cards; 4/48=1/12

• Total odds: 1/13.5*1/17*1/25*1/49*1/12=1 in 3,373,650

7. The answer is (c). The odds of any specific series of six coin flips is 1 in 26 .
9.

(a) The odds are 1/610 =1/60,466,176

(b) The odds are the opposite of (a): 60,466,175/60,466,176=

(c) The odds are (5/6)10 =510 /610 =9,765,625/60,466,176

Chapter 14
1. The odds of two threes are 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. The odds of any given set of matching
faces are the same 1/36, so the odds of getting any matching faces is 6 * 1/36 = 1/6.
7. The odds of drawing a 2 for any given draw is 2/5. The odds of drawing at least one
within four draws is 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 + 3/5*3/5*2/5 + 3/5*3/5*3/5*2/5 = 544/625
9. There are 3*4=12 total possibilities.

(a) There are three possibilities (2-1, 3-1, 3-2) where A is larger than B. The chance is
3/12=1/4

(b) There are three possibilities (two 1s, 2s or 3s) where the numbers are equal. The chance
is 3/12=1/4

(c) If A is neither larger than or equal to B, it must be smaller than B. The chance is
1-3/12-3/12=6/12=1/2

11.
(a) The chance is 13/52*12/51*11/50=11/850

(b) The chance is 39/52*38/51*37/50=703/1700

(c) The chance is the opposite of (a): 839/850

Gapminder
a) Average life expectancy: 54.7 years

• Rwanda: 40 • Niger: 53 • Solomon Islands: 62

• Malawi: 46 • Papua New Guinea: 56 • Sri Lanka: 71
• Ethiopia: 50 • Cambodia: 57
• Burkina Faso: 51 • Nepal: 61

b) 75 years; looking approximately 2.5 percent in either direction, the plots seem about
evenly-spread between 70 and 80 percent.
c) The information provided in the graph alone is not sufficient to validate this advice:
it implies only correlation, not causation. Other intuitive factors, such as proximity to
hospitals, would support this advice, but not without data to confirm that those factors are
actually present and causally-related to life expectancy.