PROBABILIDAD EM

SABEMOS LO SIGUIENTE:

p=

q=
Tr =

AO

1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1977
1978
1976
1975
1973
1974
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959

47.7
66.8
102.1
53.2
70.2
77.3
75.9
99.6
110.6
139.2
122.7
105.6
66.7
74.5
57.6
74.4
61.9
33.7
56.7
66.1
115.9
93.9
88.1
82.6
77.4

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Qmax

139.2
131.1
127.4
127.1
122.7
117.7
115.9
111.7
110.7
110.6
107.3
106.7
105.6
105.6
103.7
102.1
102.1
101.4
99.6
98.7
93.9
91.9
88.1
83.0
82.6

100%

A)

1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
1953
1952
1951
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

102.1
59.6
58.9
131.1
103.7
91.9
83.0
106.7
110.7
111.7
101.4
70.8
77.4
127.1
41.5
62.5
57.3
67.4
117.7
77.7
98.7
107.3
82.3
127.4
105.6

n
X
S
S2
X+S
X-S

50
86
25.36
643.31
111.40
60.67

26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

82.3
77.7
77.4
77.4
77.3
75.9
74.5
74.4
70.8
70.2
67.4
66.8
66.7
66.1
62.5
61.9
59.6
58.9
57.6
57.3
56.7
53.2
47.7
41.5
33.7

50%

85%
15%

ECUACION DE REGRESION:

A= X
B=S
A
B

y=

86.034

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES:

Q=X

LUEGO:
95.000

=
Z=

USANDO LA CAMPANA DE GAUSS:

P=
P

B)

Q1 = X + S
Q2 = X - S

Q1 =
Q2 =

*PARA Q =

120.00

Z=

1.339

P=

-0.4097

P ( Q > 229.25 ^ Q < 42.71) :

P=
P=
P=

0.8320
83.20

AOS DE SEQUIA:
AOS SEQ. = /25
AOS SEQ. = /25

Tr =
p=
q=

ECUACION DE REGRESION:

USANDO LA CAMPANA DE GAUSS:

Z=
ADEMAS:

Q =
DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES:

J = 1 - (1 - 0.04)^
J=

D)

USANDO LA CAMPANA DE GAUSS:

Z=
ADEMAS:
Q

=
Q

PROBABILIDAD EMPIRICA

m
n+1
q=

100%
1
p

OCURRENCIA
P.E. (%)
1.961
3.922
5.882
7.843
9.804
11.765
13.725
15.686
17.647
19.608
21.569
23.529
25.49
27.451
29.412
31.373
33.333
35.294
37.255
39.216
41.176
43.137
45.098
47.059
49.02

x 100%

p%
x 100%

NO OCURRENCIA
q(%)
98.039
96.078
94.118
92.157
90.196
88.235
86.275
84.314
82.353
80.392
78.431
76.471
74.51
72.549
70.588
68.627
66.667
64.706
62.745
60.784
58.824
56.863
54.902
52.941
50.98

Tr(Aos)
0.5099
0.255
0.17
0.1275
0.102
0.085
0.0729
0.0638
0.0567
0.051
0.0464
0.0425
0.0392
0.0364
0.034
0.0319
0.03
0.0283
0.0268
0.0255
0.0243
0.0232
0.0222
0.0212
0.0204

Z
2.095
1.776
1.631
1.618
1.446
1.250
1.179
1.013
0.973
0.968
0.839
0.813
0.771
0.769
0.697
0.635
0.632
0.604
0.536
0.498
0.311
0.231
0.081
-0.120
-0.136

log (Q)
2.144
2.118
2.105
2.104
2.089
2.071
2.064
2.048
2.044
2.044
2.031
2.028
2.024
2.023
2.016
2.009
2.009
2.006
1.998
1.994
1.973
1.963
1.945
1.919
1.917

50.98
52.941
54.902
56.863
58.824
60.784
62.745
64.706
66.667
68.627
70.588
72.549
74.51
76.471
78.431
80.392
82.353
84.314
86.275
88.235
90.196
92.157
94.118
96.078
98.039

49.02
47.059
45.098
43.137
41.176
39.216
37.255
35.294
33.333
31.373
29.412
27.451
25.49
23.529
21.569
19.608
17.647
15.686
13.725
11.765
9.804
7.843
5.882
3.922
1.961

0.0196
0.0189
0.0182
0.0176
0.017
0.0165
0.0159
0.0155
0.015
0.0146
0.0142
0.0138
0.0134
0.0131
0.0128
0.0124
0.0121
0.0119
0.0116
0.0113
0.0111
0.0109
0.0106
0.0104
0.0102

25.364

Q = A + Bz
86.034
25.364

.->.

Q = 95.0

-0.148
-0.329
-0.339
-0.341
-0.344
-0.400
-0.456
-0.459
-0.599
-0.624
-0.735
-0.758
-0.763
-0.786
-0.927
-0.950
-1.043
-1.069
-1.121
-1.134
-1.155
-1.293
-1.512
-1.757
-2.064
n
Xlog
Slog

1.915
1.890
1.889
1.889
1.888
1.880
1.872
1.872
1.850
1.846
1.829
1.825
1.824
1.820
1.796
1.792
1.775
1.770
1.760
1.758
1.754
1.726
1.678
1.618
1.527
50
1.9146
0.1372

86.034

25.364

0.3535

0.6381
63.81

120.00
50.00

0.4097

*PARA Q =

50.00

Z=

-1.421

P=

0.4223

0.4223

5
0.20

aos
2%

0.30

MPANA DE GAUSS:
0.842

Q = A + Bz

* Z

86.034

25.364

Q=

107.39

m3/s

25.364

0.842

2.56

J = 1 - (1 - p)^n
J = 1 - (1 - 0.04)^20
0.558
J = 55.8 %

J = 1 - (1 - p)^n
0.1 = 1 - (1 - p)^20
p = 0.00525
q = 0.5 -0.00525
q = 0.4947

MPANA DE GAUSS:
2.56

Q = A + Bz
86.0338
=
Q=

150.965
150.965

Z(log)
1.668
1.479
1.389
1.381
1.270
1.139
1.090
0.973
0.944
0.941
0.846
0.826
0.794
0.793
0.737
0.689
0.687
0.665
0.610
0.580
0.424
0.355
0.221
0.033
0.017

0.005
-0.177
-0.187
-0.189
-0.192
-0.251
-0.311
-0.314
-0.469
-0.497
-0.627
-0.655
-0.660
-0.687
-0.865
-0.894
-1.017
-1.052
-1.123
-1.142
-1.171
-1.373
-1.721
-2.164
-2.822

- 3.9
- 3.7
- 3.5
- 3.3
-3.1
- 2.9
- 2.7
- 2.
5
- 2.
3
- 2.1
- 1.9
- 1.7
- 1.
5
-1
-4
- 3.8
- 3.6
-3
.4
- 3.
2
-3
- 2.8
- 2.6
-2.4
-2
.2
-2
- 1.8
- 1.6
-1.4

4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7

0.00013383
0.00019866
0.00029195
0.00042478
0.0006119
0.00087268
0.00123222
0.00172257
0.00238409
0.00326682
0.00443185
0.00595253
0.00791545
0.01042093

2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8

0.01358297
0.0175283
0.02239453
0.02832704
0.03547459
0.0439836
0.05399097
0.06561581
0.07895016
0.09404908
0.11092083
0.1295176
0.14972747
0.17136859
0.19418605
0.21785218
0.24197072
0.26608525
0.28969155
0.31225393
0.3332246
0.35206533
0.36827014
0.38138782
0.39104269
0.39695255
0.39894228
0.39695255
0.39104269
0.38138782
0.36827014
0.35206533
0.3332246
0.31225393
0.28969155
0.26608525
0.24197072
0.21785218
0.19418605
0.17136859
0.14972747
0.1295176
0.11092083
0.09404908
0.07895016

-1.9
-2
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
-3
-3.1
-3.2
-3.3
-3.4
-3.5
-3.6
-3.7
-3.8
-3.9
-4

0.06561581
0.05399097
0.0439836
0.03547459
0.02832704
0.02239453
0.0175283
0.01358297
0.01042093
0.00791545
0.00595253
0.00443185
0.00326682
0.00238409
0.00172257
0.00123222
0.00087268
0.0006119
0.00042478
0.00029195
0.00019866
0.00013383

CAMPANA DE GAUSS

- 2.7
-2
.5
-2
.3
- 2.1
- 1.9
- 1.7
-1
.5
-1
.3
- 1.1
-0
.9
- 0.7
-0.5
-0
.3
- 0.1
8
- 2.
6
- 2.4
-2
.2
-2
- 1.8
- 1.
6
- 1.4
-1
.2
-1
- 0.8
- 0.
6
- 0.4
-0.2
0

0
.1
0.3
0.5
0.
7
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1
.1
1.3
1.5
1.
7
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8

2.1
2.3
2.2
2.

1.
1
1.3
1.
5
1.7
1
.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8

2.
1
2.3
2
.5
2.7
2
.9
2.
2
2.4
2.6
2.8

3
.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3
.9
3
.2
3.4
3.6
3.8