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The one Thing, which is rising Week after Week, Mouth after Mouth and
which has given the Sleepless Nights to 100 days of Congress Government, which
affects from Prime Minister to Common Man. YES, IT IS INFLATION. Inflation
is commonly understood as a situation of substantial and rapid general increase in
the level of prices and consequent deterioration in the value of money over a period
of time. In other words inflation usually refers to a persistent and rapid rise in the
general price level, which reduces the value of money or its purchasing power over
a period of time.
TYPES OF INFLATION
Inflation is often classified on three different criteria. Firstly, one might
distinguish between various types of inflation on the basis of speed at which the
general price level rises. Secondly, one way distinguishes between open and
suppressed inflation. Finally, as we find in the modern macroeconomic theory,
inflation is classified on the basis of the factors, which induce it. On the criterion of
the rate at which the general price level rises, we have the following types of
inflation:
1. Creeping Inflation
2. Walking Inflation
3. Running Inflation
4. Galloping or Hyper-Inflation
5. Cost-Push Inflation
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS INFLATION
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6. Demand-Pull Inflation
7. Built-in Inflation
8. Chronic Inflation
9. Core Inflation
10. Headline inflation
11. Stealth Inflation
12. Assets inflation
1. Creeping Inflation
An extremely mild form of inflation is often characterized as creeping
inflation. In this case prices rise at a rate of around 2 percent per annum. In case the
rate of inflation does not register further increase, those a mild does of inflation
may not have any adverse effects on the economy. Creeping inflation sometimes
provides necessary inducement to investors. The debatable question about the
creeping inflation however, is whether it would not eventually gather momentum
and thereby creates distortions in the economy. The world has witnessed both types
of situations. Certain countries have lived with mild inflations over long periods
and their economies in these periods have registered rapid economic growth. In
other countries, creeping inflation eventually accelerated and caused the collapse of
the economy.
2. Walking Inflation
The walking inflation in terms of degree of prices rise is an intermediate
situation between the creeping and running inflations. The rate of inflation in this
case is distinctly higher than that in the case of the creeping inflation. Since the
walking inflation does not invite widespread protests, the monetary authorities do
often not take it seriously and they don’t undertake timely corrective measures. It
4. Hyper Inflation
The hyper-inflation refers to a situation in which prices rise at an alarming
rate of 40 percent per month or even more. The most notable examples of hyper-
inflation are to be found in the economic histories of Germany, Austria, Russia,
Poland, Greece, Hungary and China. In hyper-inflation money loses its importance
as a store of value as no one holds it for precautionary and speculative purposes. In
fact, a hyper-inflation invariably leads to a monetary collapse and national
catastrophe. However, it is important to recognise the fact that hyper-inflation does
not arise abruptly. It is always a result of wrong policies of the government.
Whenever in some country the government indulges recklessly in unproductive
expenditures, which are largely financed by borrowing from the Central Bank of
the Country, a process of inflation begins which often culminates in hyper-
inflation.
6. Demand-Pull Inflation
Demand-pull inflation occurs when there is an increase in aggregate demand,
categorized by the four sections of the macro economy households, businesses,
governments and foreign buyers. When these four sectors concurrently want to
purchase more output than the economy can produce, they compete to purchase
limited amounts of goods and services. Buyers in essence “bid prices up”, again,
are causing inflation. This excessive demand, also referred to as “too much money
7. Built-in Inflation
Built-in inflation is an economic concept referring to a type of inflation that
resulted from past events and persists in the present. It thus might be called
hangover inflation.
At any one time, built-in inflation represents one of three major determinants of the
current inflation rate. In Robert J. Gordon's triangle model of inflation, the current
inflation rate equals the sum of demand-pull inflation, supply-shock inflation, and
built-in inflation. "Demand-pull inflation" refers to the effects of falling
unemployment rates (rising real gross domestic product) in the Phillips curve
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS INFLATION
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model, while the other two factors lead to shifts in the Phillips curve. The built-in
inflation we see now started with either persistent demand-pull or large cost-push
(supply-shock) inflation in the past. It then became a "normal" aspect of the
workings of the economy due to the roles of inflationary expectations and the
price/wage spiral. Inflationary expectations play a role because if workers and
employers expect inflation to persist in the future, they will increase their
(nominal) wages and prices now. (see real vs. nominal in economics.) This means
that inflation happens now simply because of subjective views about what may
happen in the future. Of course, following the generally-accepted theory of
adaptive expectations, such inflationary expectations arise because of persistent
past experience with inflation. The price/wage spiral refers to the conflictual nature
of the wage bargain in modern capitalism. (It is part of the conflict theory of
inflation, referring to the objective side of the inflationary process.) Workers and
employers usually do not get together to agree on the value of real wages. Instead,
workers attempt to protect their real wages (or to attain a target real wage) by
pushing for higher money (or nominal) wages. Thus, if they expect price inflation
-- or have experienced price inflation in the past -- they push for higher money
wages. If they are successful, this raises the costs faced by their employers. To
protect the real value of their profits (or to attain a target profit rate or rate of return
on investment), employers then pass the higher costs onto consumers in the form of
higher prices. This encourages workers to push for higher money wages. In the
end, built-in inflation involves a vicious circle of both subjective and objective
elements, so that inflation encourages inflation to persist. It means that the standard
methods of fighting inflation using either monetary policy or fiscal policy to induce
a recession are extremely expensive, i.e., meaning large rises in unemployment and
large falls in real gross domestic product. This suggests that alternative methods
CAUSES OF INFLATION
For controlling the rates of commodity, we must know why these rates are
rising i.e. inflating which means what are the reasons or causes behind inflation.
There are various factors which causes inflation in the economy which is as
follows:
a. Monetary Factors
b. Non Monetary Factors
c. Structural Factors
MONETARY FACTORS
1. Expansion of Money Supply
This is the basic factor, which causes inflation. Due to increase in expansion
of money supply, there is increase in demand of luxurious commodities. Credit
facilities allotted by bank are also the result of inflation. Deficit financing also
contribute to the growth of inflation.
2. Increase in Disposable Income
When the disposable income of people increases, demand for real goods and
services increases, causing a rise in price leading inflation.
3. Increase in Consumer Spending
As the income of the consumers rises, they spend more due to expenditure
consumption or demonstration effect, which raises the aggregate demand causing
inflation.
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4. Development and Non-Development Expenditure
The expenditure for the development of huge plants and projects will
increase the demand for factors of production resulting in inflation. On the other
way, the expenditure for the non-development like defence expenditure will create
shortages of consumption goods resulting inflation.
5. Indirect Taxes
Due to high indirect taxes, sellers increase the price of their products to
recover the tax from the consumers, which indirectly leads to inflation.
6. Demand for Foreign Commodities
When the demand for the foreign commodities increases, the supply for the
home commodities decreases which leads to increasing the price.
NON-MONETARY FACTORS
1. Rising Population
As population of the economy increases, demand for better goods increases,
this causes inflation. So, rising population is the foremost non-monetary factor
resulting inflation.
2. Natural Calamities
Due to the occurrence of natural calamities like floods, famines, bad
weather, etc results in crop failure, which leads to rising price.
3. Speculation and Black Money
Speculation, hoarding and black money also causes inflation, as such
unearned money is spend lavishly by people, creating unnecessary demand for
goods and services.
4. Unfair Practices by Monopoly Houses
6. Effects on manufacturers
Inflation is harmful to trade. Manufacturers generally sell goods on credit.
When they seek repayment they find that the money they receive is less than they
expected. They therefore become reluctant to trade.
1) MONETARY MEASURES
a) Quantitative Methods
i. Raising the Bank Rate
To control inflation the central bank increases the bank rate. With this the cost
of borrowing of commercial banks from central bank will increase so the
commercial banks will charge higher rate of interest on loans. This discourages
borrowings and thereby helps to reduce the money in circulation.
ii. Open Market Operations
During inflation, the central bank sells the bills and securities. These cash
reserves of commercial banks will decrease as they pay central bank for purchasing
these securities. Thus the loan able funds with commercial banks decrease which
leads to credit contraction.
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iii. Variable Reserve Ratio
The commercial banks have to keep certain percentage of their deposits with the
central bank in the form of cash reserve. During inflation, the central bank
increases this cash reserve ratio this will reduce the lending capacity of the banks.
MEASURES OF INFLATION
Inflation is measured by calculating the percentage rate of change of a price
index, which is called the inflation rate. This rate can be calculated for many
different price indices, including:
Consumer price indices (CPIs) which measure the price of a selection of goods
purchased by a "typical consumer." In the UK, an alternative index called the
Retail Price Index (RPI) uses a slightly different market basket.
Cost-of-living indices (COLI) are indices similar to the CPI which are often used
to adjust fixed incomes and contractual incomes to maintain the real value of those
incomes.
Availability
1. The WPI is available weekly [for a lag of 2 weeks]
2. The CPI is available monthly [for a log of 1 month]
3. The GDP deflator is available annually
In many countries, the main focus is placed on CPI for assessing inflationary
trends, because
1. It is the index most statistical resources are placed
2. It is most closely related to the cost of living
In India however the main focus is placed on WPI because it has a broader
coverage and is published on a more frequent and timely basis than the CPI.
However, the CPI remains important because it is used for indexation purposes for
many wage and salary earners.
INDIAN SCENARIO
Inflation is no stranger to the Indian economy. In fact, till the early nineties
Indians were used to double-digit inflation and its attendant consequences. But,
since the mid-nineties controlling inflation has become a priority for policy
framers. The natural fallout of this has been that we, as a nation, have become
virtually intolerant to inflation. While inflation till the early nineties was primarily
caused by domestic factors (supply usually was unable to meet demand, resulting
in the classical definition of inflation of too much money chasing too few goods),
today the situation has changed significantly. Inflation today is caused more by
global rather than by domestic factors. Naturally, as the Indian economy undergoes
structural changes, the causes of domestic inflation too have undergone tectonic
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS INFLATION
Page 33
changes. Needless to emphasize, causes of today's inflation are complicated.
However, it is indeed intriguing that the policy response even to this day
unfortunately has been fixated on the traditional anti-inflation instruments of the
pre-liberalization era.
4-Apr-08 7.14
11-Apr-08 7.33
18-Apr-08 7.41
25-Apr-08 7.33
2-May-08 7.57
9-May-08 7.82
16-May-08 8.1
24-May-08 8.24
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
1-Jun-08 BUSINESS 9.75
INFLATION
Page 34
19-Jun-08 10.01
8-Jul-08 11.25
20-Jul-08 11.75
INFLATION IN INDIA AND OTHER DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES
2] Banker to Government
The second important function of the Reserve Bank of India is to act as
Government banker, agent and adviser. The Reserve Bank is agent of Central
Government and of all State Governments in India excepting that of Jammu and
Kashmir. The Reserve Bank has the obligation to transact Government business,
via. to keep the cash balances as deposits free of interest, to receive and to make
payments on behalf of the Government and to carry out their exchange remittances
and other banking operations. The Reserve Bank of India helps the Government -
both the Union and the States to float new loans and to manage public debt. The
Bank makes ways and means advances to the Governments for 90 days. It makes
loans and advances to the States and local authorities. It acts as adviser to the
Government on all monetary and banking matters.
4] Controller of Credit
The Reserve Bank of India is the controller of credit i.e. it has the power to
influence the volume of credit created by banks in India. It can do so through
changing the Bank rate or through open market operations. According to the
Banking Regulation Act of 1949, the Reserve Bank of India can ask any particular
bank or the whole banking system not to lend to particular groups or persons on the
basis of certain types of securities. Since 1956, selective controls of credit are
increasingly being used by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank of India is armed with many more powers to control the
Indian money market. Every bank has to get a licence from the Reserve Bank of
India to do banking business within India, the licence can be cancelled by the
Reserve Bank of certain stipulated conditions are not fulfilled. Every bank will
have to get the permission of the Reserve Bank before it can open a new branch.
Each scheduled bank must send a weekly return to the Reserve Bank showing, in
detail, its assets and liabilities. This power of the Bank to call for information is
2. Reserve Requirements
This mainly constitute of Cash to Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory
Liquidity ratio (SLR). CRR is the portion of deposits (as cash) which banks have to
keep/maintain with the RBI. This serves two purposes firstly, it ensures that a
portion of bank deposits is totally risk-free and secondly it enables that RBI control
liquidity in the system, and thereby, inflation. Whereas SLR is the portion of their
deposits banks are required to invest in government securities. So due to CRR and
SLR obligation towards RBI financial institutions will be able to lend only the part
of money available with them although this effect is small when transaction is
4. Repo rate
It is the rate at which the RBI borrows short term money from the market.
After economic reforms RBI started borrowing at market prevailing rates. So it
makes more sense to banks to lend money to RBI at competitive rate with no risk
at all. Although the repo rate transactions are for very short duration the everyday
quantum of operations is approximately Rs 40,000 crore everyday. Thus, large
amount of capital is not available for circulation. With increase in repo rate banks
tend to invest more in repo transactions.
Inflation is not simply a matter of rising prices. There are endemic and
perhaps diverse reasons at the root of inflation. Cost-push inflation is a result of
decreased aggregate supply as well as increased costs of production, itself a result
of different factors. The increase in aggregate supply causing demand-pull inflation
can be the result of many factors, including increases in government spending and
depreciation of the local exchange rate. If an economy identifies what type of
inflation is occurring (cost-push or demand-pull), then the economy may be better
able to rectify (if necessary) rising prices and the loss of purchasing power.
Inflation is just like a man whose behaviour cannot be predicted and one can say
that as man has two faces, similarly Inflation can also be said to have Positive and
Negative faces on Indian Economy.