w w w.abudhabichamber.

ae

Tourism and the Private

Sector in Abu Dhabi
April 2016
Issue 02-31032016

In association with

www.ihs.com

Sectoral Report
Tourism and the Private Sector in Abu Dhabi

Dear reader
The tourism sector has the highest share of private-sector
activity in the entire Abu Dhabi economyclose to 90%.
Still, it plays a comparatively small role, generating around
2% of GDP, depending how it is measured.
There is significant potential for growth in tourism.
Synergies with neighboring Dubai are important, but first and
foremost, the development of world-class tourist and leisure
attractions such as the Louvre Abu Dhabi, the Guggenheim,
and Ferrari World, is critical for robust growth in the sector
and resulting further diversification of the economy.
Top-notch tourist attractions will also help protect the
sector from weaker patches in global growth or other
adverse effects, such as a strong US dollar and dirham.
Still, tourism in Abu Dhabi is not unaffected by the
weakness of emerging markets and, of course, the decline
of the oil price.
There is some concern regarding the demand side of the
tourism sector, since the bulk of tourists in Abu Dhabi still
come from the United Arab Emirates themselves and its
neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council. A recent growth
slowdown in the tourism sector is therefore hardly surprising.
Still, unless oil prices remain very low for an extended
period, the recent growth slowdown will remain a weaker
patch followed by reaccelerating growth, given the new
events and attractions that are currently in Abu Dhabis
tourist pipeline.

Contents
Tourism in focus

Growing fast from a narrow base

Weak patch

Who is coming

Lodging supply and demand

Lodging preferences

Travel infrastructure

Tourist attractions

Facilitating travel, reducing barriers

Investment flows

Market outlook

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April 2016

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Cover image: Shutterstock/IHS

Tourism in focus

2.0m

Tourist arrivals in Abu Dhabi

The development of the tourism sector

has figured high on Abu Dhabis strategic
agenda for many years, but the sectors
development has not been able to emulate
Dubais success on the same scale.
Operating on a comparatively narrow base,
tourism in Abu Dhabi has recently been the
subject of closer focus from private-sector
developers and the government.
Several high-profile events and
development projects signal that Abu
Dhabi authorities are serious about
developing the country into a world-class
tourist destinationone of the key flagship
projects, the Louvre Abu Dhabi, will open in
the second half of 2016.
In Abu Dhabi Vision 2030, Abu Dhabis
Supreme Council declared that tourism was
among a number of sectors that will steer
the economy away from its dependence on
oil. The sector has also been shortlisted with
four other sectorstransport and logistics,
manufacturing, media, and financial services
and insuranceas strategic in the current
five-year plan.
Thus, the tourism business plays a critical
role in the economys diversification as well
as in private-sector development. Already,
the private sector accounts for nearly 90%
of tourism activities in Abu Dhabi, putting
the private sector in the lead position in
developing tourism in the country.
In the global list of tourist hot spots, Abu
Dhabi still occupies a relatively low rank.
The list of international tourist arrivalsled
by France, with more than 80.0 million
arrivals (up from 78.0 million in 2013), and
the United States, with 75.0 million in 2014
(up from 70.0 million in 2013)has Dubai
in 12th place, with 10.5 million arrivals
(for 2013), ahead of Mecca (7.5 million),

according to the World Trade Organizations

Tourism Barometer. Abu Dhabi is in 88th
place, with nearly 2.0 million arrivals in 2013.
The target for 2030 is eight million
visitors per year. This is ambitious but not
unreasonable for Abu Dhabis tourism
industry, given Dubais success and current
plans for a number of high-profile projects.

Growing fast from a narrow base

An analysis from the World Travel and

Tourism Council estimated tourisms direct
contribution to headline GDP in the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) at close to 5.5% of
GDP in 2014. Factoring in supplying sectors,
the total contribution ends up at more than
8.0% of GDP. However, this includes Dubais
thriving tourism sector (see charts 1 and 2).
For Abu Dhabi alone, the tourism sectors
size compared with the rest of the Abu
Dhabi economy is somewhat smaller. The
sectors direct contribution accounts for
about 1% of GDP, or around 2% of the
nonoil economy, if accommodation and food
services combined with arts and recreation
services are taken as a proxy for tourism.
If tourism-related transport services are
included, the share of total GDP might
increase to around 2% (see chart 3).
That being said, tourisms GDP
contribution for the UAE as a whole is
already close to the world average of nearly
10% and among the highest in the countries
of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),
thanks largely to Dubais tourism activities.
Tourist arrivals have been nearly as high
as in Saudi Arabia, with about a fifth of the
total 12.4 million arrivals registered for the
UAE coming to Abu Dhabi. In terms of visitor
spending, Dubai accounted for about five
times as much revenue as Abu Dhabi in
2015 (see chart 4).

Chart 1: Total tourism contribution to GDP in 2014

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

World

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Jordan

UK

Germany

Australia

USA

Canada

Source: World Travel and Tourism Council, World Bank 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber

Sectoral Report
Tourism and the Private Sector in Abu Dhabi

Leisure travel spending within a country, billions of 2014 US dollars (real prices)

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

World total

$3,850.2 bn
$1,123.2 m

UAE*

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Jordan

UK

*Tourist arrivals only in Dubai and Abu Dhabi

Germany

2005-2007

Canada

Weak patch

1.28%

Note: Tourism-related activities from the GDP-classification are accommodation and food, arts, recreation, and other service activities
Source: SCAD 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart 4: International visitor spending in 2015

(billions of US dollars)

$11.7 bn
$2.2 bn
Abu Dhabi

Source: Tourism and Cultural Authority Abu Dhabi, Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing
2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Despite the relatively small size

compared with Dubai, tourism business
activities in Abu Dhabi grew fast in the last
decade. The sectors gross value added
leaped by 10.4% on average each year in
April 2016

USA

201014 (see chart 5).

2012-2014

1.27%

Dubai

Australia

Source: World Travel and Tourism Council, World Bank 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart 3: Percentage share of tourism-related

activities in Abu Dhabi's GDP

Tourist arrivals in 2013 (millions)

USD millions

USD billions

Chart 2: Key tourism indicators by country

More recently, though, the boom in tourism

activities in Abu Dhabi has slackened as
gross value added dropped 5.6% in 2014;
data for 2015 have not yet been published.
However, while food and accommodation
was essentially unchanged from 2013, the
decline was driven by services related to
arts and recreation. Stagnation and even a
further modest decline in 2015 have been in
the cards, although, in the absence of hard
data for 2015 at this point, estimates are
difficult to confirm.
The recent weakness is hardly a major
surprise, given the oil-price slide and the
related effects on Abu Dhabis neighbors,
who still provide the largest share of visitors.
Global and regional economic trends have
also disadvantaged Abu Dhabis tourism
industry. Since fourth-quarter 2014, the
US dollars strength against the euro and
most major emerging-market currencies,
including the Chinese yuan and in particular
the Russian rouble, made vacationing in
Abu Dhabi more expensive for tourists from
Europe and most Asian countries.

Who is coming

The largest source country for tourists in

Abu Dhabi is the UAE, with nearly 1.4 million
visitors in 2015. That is more than one-third
of all tourist visitors who were registered by
the Tourism and Cultural Authority of Abu
Dhabi in 2015.
India leads the other countries, with
280,000 visitors or a share of 7%, while
the United Kingdom and China follow.
Most remarkably perhaps, tourist flows
from virtually all major countries, with the
exception of Germany, posted double-

digit growth rates from 2014, despite weak

growth in emerging markets, the decline in
oil prices, and the strength of the US dollar
and the dirham, respectively. One may
safely conclude that, given more benign
global circumstances, tourist flows would
have grown even faster (see chart 6).
However, tourist flows from Russia were
cut in half in 2015 compared with 2014,
signaling that the roubles weakness and the
Russian recession have had major effects.
Still, Russian tourists have not played a key
role for Abu Dhabi in the past, with Russia
ranking 20th among top source countries
for Abu Dhabi tourists in 2014a significant
contrast with Dubai, where the share of
Russian tourists was more significant.
Arrivals at Abu Dhabi International Airport,
which marked a new record in passenger
traffic at 23 million combined arrivals and
departures in 2015, also provide clues
about the geographical origin of Abu Dhabi
visitors. Travelers from GCC countries are
much less strongly represented for obvious
reasons, but arrivals from outside the GCC
signal that non-Arab Asia is playing a critical
role, with more than 4 million passengers in
2014, almost exactly double the 2010 figure.
Traveler numbers from Europe have grown
as fast, accounting for more than 2.3 million
arrivals in 2014 (see chart 7).

Lodging supply and demand

Hotels have mushroomed in the UAEand

certainly in Abu Dhabiin recent years to
accommodate the swelling flow of business
and leisure travelers. In 2010, 116 hotel
establishments were registered in Abu
Dhabithat count jumped to 168 in 2015.
The number of hotel guests, meanwhile,
more than doubled to 4.1 million. The guest
count grew nearly 20% on average during
the last five years, with the surge continuing
unabated in 2015 (see chart 8).
Abu Dhabi attracted a diverse range
of international recognized hoteliers. For
example, a local private developer, Bin
Otaiba investment Group, is in partnership
with the Hilton group to operate a
resort. This partnership appears to be a
common business model for Abu Dhabi,
where investments are funded by both
government-related entities and/or local
private investors, and the hotels are
operated by high-profile brands. Other
key brand names operating in Abu Dhabi
include Grand Hyatt, Four Seasons, Edition,
Fairmont, Biltmore, and Hard Rock Hotel.
Hotels across all major classification
categories have been developed, although
the luxury segment predominates. However,

Chart 5: Tourism-related activities in Abu Dhabi, real

gross value added percent change
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Note: Tourism-related activities from the GDP-classification are accommodation and food, arts, recreation, and other service activities
Source: SCAD 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart 6: Top source of tourists

in Abu Dhabi in 2015
1: UAE
2: India
3: UK

4: China
5: United States
6: Philippines

7: Germany
8: Saudi Arabia
9: Egypt

10: Jordan

1500,000
Guests

1200,000

23m

900,000
600,000

Passengers at Abu Dhabi

airport in 2015

300,000
0

10

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Share Percent change from previous year

10

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority

2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

more related projects are in the pipeline or

under constructionthe oil-price decline
and the weaker outlook notwithstanding.
Current projects include Grand Hyatt and
Hard Rock Hotel, which will be critical for
the luxury segments performance.
Clearly, expectations are still geared
toward continued tourism growth in Abu
Dhabi, but business travel is increasingly a
focus. Fierce price competition, however,
has already dragged down average room
2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber

Sectoral Report
Tourism and the Private Sector in Abu Dhabi

Chart 7: Arrivals at Abu Dhabi International Airport

5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0

GCC countries

Other Arab countries

Non-Arab Asia

Europe

2011 2012 2013 2014

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of hotels
200
150
100
50
0

2010

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart 9: Average hotel occupancy rate in Abu Dhabi

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

2010

April 2016

2011

Others

revenue, although the luxury segment

has seen strong incremental capacity
growth and the revenue per available room
(RevPAR) was relatively stable between
2011 and 2015, and the average occupancy
rate increased almost steadily and hit 75%
in 2015 (see chart 9).
Average room revenue declined steadily
from AED490 in 2011 to AED438 in 2015.
Adding more capacity to the market
will certainly exacerbate price pressure
unless the guest counts recent growth is
maintained (see chart 10).

Guests (millions)

2010

Africa

Source: SCAD 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Chart 8: Key indicators of hotel establishments

North America

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Lodging preferences

The focus on the luxury category reflects

demand; close to half of the travelers from
the UAE, Europe, and North America stay
at a luxury five-star hotel. Indeed, demand
for five-star rooms grew across the board in
2014. In the recent past, one-third of visitors
from non-Arab Asia and Africa lodged
in that category, while the bulk share of
travelers from those regions preferred threeor four-star hotels or hotel apartments (see
charts 11 and 12).
Visitors from Asia and the UAE are
shifting more toward the luxury segment,
posting growth rates for five-star rooms of
10% and 7%, respectively. Price effects
might play a role here as lower costs induce
travelers to upgrade to the luxury segment.

Travel infrastructure

High-quality infrastructure is critical to ensure

sufficient capacity to cater the surging
number of travelers. Etihad Airways has
strongly contributed to drive tourism growth
from that perspective. The UAE flag carrier,
which started operations only a little more
than a decade ago, has a goal of expanding
its network to 160 worldwide destinations by

Chart 10: Average room revenues and revenues

per available room in Abu Dhabi
600
500
UAE dirham

2025. Abu Dhabi tourism will certainly benefit

from a broadened source of travelers.
As business has grown at Etihad Airways,
the Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH)
has morphed into one of the worlds leading
airports in terms of passenger traffic
expansion, ranking fourth after Bangkoks
Don Mueang, Istanbuls Sabiha Gokcen,
and Zhengzhou airport in China. The
Midfield Terminal at Abu Dhabi International
Airport, which is currently targeted for
opening on National Day 2017, will be able
to receive 30 million passengers per year.
In addition to air transportation, a new
cruise ship terminal at Mina Zayed was
opened in January 2016 and is expected to
welcome 220,000 passengers during the
year, underscoring the ambition to develop
Abu Dhabi as a landmark for cruise ship
tourism in the Arabian Gulf. Aligning with
this vision, the regions first cruise beach
stopover at Sir Bani Yas Island, which is now
being developed, will help diversify shore
excursion opportunities.
Beneath leisure tourism, Abu Dhabi is
also actively promoting the emirates lodging
facilities for business travel. The Abu
Dhabi Convention Bureau, a subsidiary of
the Tourism and Cultural Authority, takes
an active role in shaping the emirate as a
business travel destination. Those initiatives
have produced tangible results, bringing
Abu Dhabi into the top-100 busiest cities for
global meeting destinations, according to
the International Congress and Convention
Associations rankings. According to the
Tourism and Cultural Authority and Abu
Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC),
the economic impact of business events is
estimated to be AED5.1 billion by 2020, with
an average 7% increase annually.

400
300
200

2010

2011

2012

2013

Average room revenues RevPAR*

2014

2015

*Average revenue per available room

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

Tourist attractions

A number of high-profile tourist and leisure

attraction have opened their gates or are
currently being developed and built in Abu
Dhabi. Ferrari World on Yas Island opened
in 2010. At that time, actual demand did not
quite match the relatively high expectations
and capacity. The theme park has been
consolidated since and established itself as a
key item and a world-class tourist attraction.
The most important projects currently are
the three main districts being developed on
Saadiyat Island. Conceived more than a
decade ago, with the project kicking off in
2007, Saadiyat Island will be host to a beach
district, a cultural district, and a marina.
The 27-square-kilometer area is being
developed based on a master plan, with key
elements including a combination of living
(residential villas and apartments), worldclass cultural events (Guggenheim, Louvre,
Zayed National Museum), and world-class
tourism (two five-star beach hotels already

5.1bn
AED: Economic impact of
business events by 2020

Chart 11: Type of hotel class booked by nationality, 2014

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

UAE

GCC

Other Arab
countries

Asia

Five-star Four-star Three-star or less Hotel apartments

Australia and
Asia Pacific

Africa

Europe

North and
South America

Not mentioned

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority, SCAD 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber

Sectoral Report
Tourism and the Private Sector in Abu Dhabi

Chart 12: Change of number of stays by hotel class 2014 from 2013
Country

Five-star

Four-star

Three-star or less Hotel apartments

UAE
GCC
Other Arab countries
Asia
Australia and Asia Pacific
Africa
Europe
North and South America
Not mentioned
Total

10%
4%
3%
7%
0%
1%
3%
1%
4%
6%

-2%
-3%
0%
-2%
-6%
-2%
-5%
-6%
5%
-3%

-5%
2%
1%
-1%
8%
1%
3%
3%
-7%
-1%

142

Number of countries for

which UAE eased visa
procedures during 2010-14

-3%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-1%
0%
0%
2%
-2%
-2%

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority, SCAD

in place, a golf club, shopping).

A whole range of other tourist attractions
is now in place (see table 1), which are
scattered across the country. The Abu
Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority has
developed a zoning strategy to facilitate
a better overview and access to all the
different facilities and to encourage tourists
to visit more facilities and eventually
lengthen their overall stay in the country.
This zoning strategy divides Abu Dhabi into
several distinctive tourism areas, with each
catering to different needs of visitors.

Facilitating travel, reducing barriers

The UAE improved visa procedures
for 142 countries during 201014. For
example, further to the memorandum of
understanding signed between China and
the UAE in 2012, holders of diplomatic,
service, and special passports benefit from
the mutual exemption of visas to enter both
countries.
Development with regard to Chinese
tourist travel into Abu Dhabi is particular

2016 IHS

encouraging. Although China accounted for

just 4% of travelers to Abu Dhabi in 2015,
the guest count leaped 166% and 47% in
2014 and 2015, respectively.
Apparently, the potential for luring Chinese
tourists to Abu Dhabi has hardly been
exhausted. Chinese travelers, meanwhile,
spent on average one-and-a-half days in
Abu Dhabi, the shortest stay among all major
visitor nations. Travelers from the United
States, the United Kingdom, and Germany,
by contrast, usually stayed an average of
more than four days (see chart 13).
The Welcome Chinese program, in
partnership with the China Tourism
Academy, was rolled out in February 2015.
Key elements of the program included the
availability of Mandarin-speaking staff and
acceptance of Chinas UnionPay bank cards
at hotels, malls, and tourist attractions.
Chinese tourists have been targeted
specifically because they seem to be the
largest potential source of tourists from
around the world. More than 13% of all
tourism expenditures in 2014 came from

Chart 13: Average length of stay in Abu Dhabi by country of origin, 2015

Number of days

5
4
3
2
1
0

UAE

India

UK

China

USA

Philippines

Germany

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Jordan

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

April 2016

Market outlook

Tourism in Abu Dhabi, like any other global

tourist destination, will above all depend on
what visitors are able and prepared to spend.
With global growth stagnating and growth in
emerging markets, especially China, slowing,
the outlook could be brighter.
Moreover, since the UAE and other GCC
countries are still the largest source of
tourist origins by far, oil-price trends will play
a critical role for the outlook of Abu Dhabis
tourism industry and whether the recent
weak patch will continue and morph into

15%
12%

150

9%

100

6%

50

3%

az
il
Br

str
ali
a

Ita
ly

Au

Ca

na
da

an
ce
Fr

Ru
ss
ia

ng
do
m

Un

ite

Ki

Ge
r

at
es
St
d

ite

m
an
y

0%

Ch
ina

Un

Abu Dhabis foreign direct investment

(FDI) inflows equaled AED81 billion in
2014, following three years of double-digit
growth, with real estate and business
services claiming the biggest share (34%),
followed by manufacturing (16%). However,
genuine FDI in the hotels and restaurants
sector is tinyless than 0.1% of all direct
investment inflows. Government-related
entities and local investors predominate,
with most transactions being carried out
off-market.
The UAE is highly rated in terms of
economic freedom and ease of doing
business, ranking second and first in the
Middle East region, respectively, according
to the World Bank. In matters such as
safety and security, hygiene, international
openness, transportation infrastructure,
and culture resources, which are particular
relevant for the tourism industry, the UAE
leads the Middle East region and ranks
24th on the global Travel and Tourism
Competitiveness Index in 2015, according
to the World Economic Forum.

200

Market share

Investment flows

Chart 14: International tourism expenditure in 2014

USD billions

travelers from China, a share that grew

quickly in the last several years, overtaking
the United States and Germany as the
leading tourist nation (see chart 14).

Source: UNWTO 2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry

long-term stagnation and decline.

That looks unlikely at this point, unless
the oil price stays very low for an extended
time. On the demand side of the tourism
market, visitors from GCC countries will
trim and manage expenses more closely
as those economies are adjusting to the
new environment of low oil prices. Other
countries, including emerging markets such
as China and India, might pick up some of
the slack.
With more tourism attractions in the
pipeline, Abu Dhabi will climb steadily to a
more attractive international tourism spot.
This holds particularly for travelers from
non-Arab Asia, where substantial growth
can be seen in the near term. A strong US
dollar and dirham (or, conversely, a weak
Chinese yuan and Indian rupee) might
dampen that trend, but are unlikely to bring
it to a halt.
Apart from that, high-profile events,
including the Formula One Abu Dhabi
Grand Prix and 2019 Asian Football Cup,
will also draw more visitors from around
the globe and also entice private investors
to engage more in the tourism business in
Abu Dhabi.

24th

UAEs rank in the Global

Travel and Tourism
Competitiveness Index

Table 1: Key tourism development projects in Abu Dhabi by region

Saadiyat

Al Maryah Island

Yas Island

Distinctiveness

A master development with global

offerings

A 24-hour business, leisure, and

entertainment hub

Major tourist attractions

Beach club, golf course

The Galleria, Global Market Square

Major tourist attractions under

development

Louvre Abu Dhabi, Zayed National

Museum, Guggenheim Abu Dhabi

Four Seasons Hotel, Al-Maryah Central

Retail

Examples of private-sector engagement

The Collection, St. Regis, Park Hyatt,

Rotana, Hilton, LVMH, St. Regis, leading
world cosmetic and wellness healthcare
provider (TBA)

Rosewood, Four Seasons

Named the worlds leading tourism

development project
Ferrari World, Yas Mall, beach, golf
course, F1 circuit, Yas Waterworld
Warner Brothers theme park, integrated
destination resort, expansion of Ferrari
World
Ferrari, Warner Brothers, Viceroy,
Rotana, Radisson Blu, IHG, Cipriani S.A.,
Aldar Properties, Sky Management,
Camper & Nicholsons, IKEA, ACE, Geant

Source: Abu Dhabi Tourism and Cultural Authority

2016 IHS

2016 Abu Dhabi Chamber

Contacts
IHS Global GmbH,
Bleichstrasse 1, 60313 Frankfurt, Germany

Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry,

P.O. Box 662, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.

Ralf Wiegert
Director Consulting IHS Economics & Country Risk
Ralf.Wiegert@ihs.com
+49 (0)69 20973 320
+49 (0)151 42628 143

Ohan S Balian, Ph.D.

Chief Economist Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce &
Industry
o.balian@adcci.gov.ae
www.abudhabichamber.ae
+971 2 617 7470

Matthias Herles
Director Consulting IHS Economics & Country Risk
Matthias.Herles@ihs.com
+49 (0)69 20973 218
+49 (0)174 1946560

About IHS:

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Address:Main Building of Abu Dhabi Chamber, Corniche Road, P.O.Box:662

Phone:00971-2-6214000, Email:contact.us@adcci.gov.ae

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