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Add Math Project Work - Probability
Add Math Project Work - Probability
ADDITIONAL MATHEMATHICS
-2010-
Name
Class
5 Jaya
I/C
Teacher
Miss Suriani
School
Alam Shah
CONTENT
Objective
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part4
Part5
Further Exploration
Reflection
2
Objective
INTRODUCTION
What is Probability
PART 1
Theory of Probability
History of Probability
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of
hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the other hand the behavior
of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is
historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical treatment
of dice began with the work of Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s.
Probability is distinguished from statistics. While statistics deals with data and
inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic (random) processes
which lie behind data or outcomes.
19th century: The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was shown
by Gauss's determination of the orbit ofCeres from a few observations. The theory of
errors used the method of least squares to correct error-prone observations, especially
20th century: Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work
on hypothesis testing of R. A. Fisher andJerzy Neyman, which is now widely applied in
biological and psychological experiments and in clinical trials of drugs. A hypothesis, for
example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability distribution that would
be observed if the hypothesis is true. If observations approximately agree with the
hypothesis, it is confirmed, if not, the hypothesis is rejected. [5]
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas as Markov
processes and Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles suspended in a
fluid. That provided a model for the study of random fluctuations in stock markets,
finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on
peace and conflict.
It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine
probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it
may be of some importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probability
assessments are made, and how they contribute to reputations and to decisions,
especially in a democracy.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many
consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, utilize reliability
theory in the design of the product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The
probability of failure may be closely associated with the product's warranty.
Empirical Probabilities
Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency, or experimental
probability, is the ratio of the number favorable outcomes to the total number of trials, [1]
9
[2]
10
Empirical probability is the probability a person calculates from many different trials. For
example someone can flip a coin 100 times and then record how many times it came up heads
and how many times it came up tails. The number of recorded heads divided by 100 is the
empirical probability that one gets heads.
The theoretical probability is the result that one should get if an infinite number of trials were
done. One would expect the probability of heads to be 0.5 and the probability of tails to be 0.5
for a fair coin.
11
PART 2
12
Part 2
13
Question:
a)Suppose you are playing monopoly game with two of your friends. To
start the game, each player will have to toss the dice once. The player who
14
obtain number will start the game. List all the possible outcomes when the
dice is tossed once.
Solution
There are three player, considered as P1,P2, and P3. The total side of the
die which is cube is six, and the number of dots on the dice is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6 respectively.
Thus, the possible outcomes are:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Question:
b) Instead of one die, two dice can also be tossed simultaneously by each
player. The player will move the token according to the sum of all dots on
both turned-up faces. For example, if two dice are tossed simultaneously
and 2 appears on one dice and 3 on the other, the outcome of the toss
is (2,3). Hence, the player shall move the token 5 spaces. Notes: The
events (2,3) and (3,2) should be treated as two different events.
List all the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed simultaneously.
Organize and present your list clearly. Consider the use of table, chart or
even diagram.
Solution
By tossing two dice, the total possible outcomes are:
{(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
OR
By using table, the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed can be
listed.
1
4
15
1
2
(1,1)
(2,1)
(1,2)
(2,2)
(1,3)
(2,3)
(1,4)
(2,4)
(1,5)
(2,5)
(1,6)
(2,6)
3
4
5
(3,1)
(4,1)
(5,1)
(3,2)
(4,2)
(5,2)
(3,3)
(4,3)
(5,3)
(3,4)
(4,4)
(5,4)
(3,5)
(4,5)
(5,5)
(3,6)
(4,6)
(5,6)
(6,1)
(6,2)
(6,3)
(6,4)
(6,5)
(6,6)
The total possible outcomes from the tossing of the two dice is 36, or
n(S)=6X6=36, which are applied from the multiplication rule.
OR
OR
16
17
PART 3
18
Part 3
Question:
The Table 1 shows the sum of all dots on both turned up faces when two
dice are tossed simultaneously.
(a) Complete Table 1 by listing all possible outcomes and their
corresponding probabilities.
Sum of the dots on
Possible outcomes
Probability,p(x)
both turned up faces(x)
1
0
2
(1,1)
1/36
3
(1,2), (2,1)
1/18
4
(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)
1/12
5
(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)
1/9
6
(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), 5,1)
5/36
7
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) 1/6
8
(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)
5/36
9
(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)
1/9
10
(4,6), (5,5), (6,4)
1/12
11
(5,6), (6,5)
1/18
12
(6,6)
1/36
Total
36
1
(b)
Based on Table 1 that you have competed, list all the possible
outcomes of the following events and hence find their corresponding
probabilities:
A= {The two numbers are not the same}
B= {The product of the two numbers is greater than 36}
C= {Both numbers are prime or the difference between two
numbers
is odd}
D={The sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers are
prime}
19
Solution
1
2
1
(1,1)
(2,1)
2
(1,2)
(2,2)
3
(1,3)
(2,3)
4
(1,4)
(2,4)
5
(1,5)
(2,5)
6
(1,6)
(2,6)
3
4
5
(3,1)
(4,1)
(5,1)
(3,2)
(4,2)
(5,2)
(3,3)
(4,3)
(5,3)
(3,4)
(4,4)
(5,4)
(3,5)
(4,5)
(5,5)
(3,6)
(4,6)
(5,6)
(6,1)
(6,2)
(6,3)
(6,4)
(6,5)
(6,6)
A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2),
(3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)=??
A={(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}
P(A)=1/6
As P(A)=P(A)=1/6, thus P(A)=1-1/6
=5/6
B={},as the maximum product is 6X6=36. This event is impossible to occur.
Thus,P(B)=0
Prime number(below six):2,3,5
Odd number(below six):1,3,5
C=PUQ
C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
=23/36
D=PR
D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}
P(D) =5/36
20
Answers:
A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2),
(3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)= 5/6
B={}
P(B)=0
C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
P(C)= 23/36
D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}
P(D) =5/36
21
PART 4
22
Part 4
(a) Conduct an activity by tossing two dice simultaneously 50
times. Observe the sum of all dots on both turned up faces.
Complete the frequency table below.
Sum of the two
numbers(x)
Frequency( )
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
1
2
5
3
6
10
8
6
6
2
1
50
2
6
20
15
36
70
64
54
60
22
12
361
4
18
80
75
216
490
512
486
600
242
144
2867
23
Solution,
From the table,
i)
mean,
ii)
variance,
24
=5.2116
iii)
Standard deviation,
=
= 2.2829
b)
New mean,
c)
Solution:
Sum of the two
numbers(x)
Frequency( )
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
5
5
10
9
15
16
14
13
6
5
2
100
10
15
40
45
90
112
112
117
60
55
24
680
Solution,
From the table,
i)
mean,
=
26
20
45
160
225
540
784
896
1053
600
605
288
5216
ii)
variance,
=
=5.92
=
= 2.4331
The prediction is wrong. The new mean is 6.8, which 0.42
lesser than the original mean.
27
PART 5
28
Part 5
Variance=
29
Solution:
Sum of the dots on
both turned up faces(x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Possible outcomes
Probability,p(x)
(1,1)
(1,2), (2,1)
(1,3), (2,2), (3,1)
(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1)
(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), 5,1)
(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)
(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)
0
1/36
1/18
1/12
1/9
5/36
1/6
5/36
1/9
30
10
11
12
Total
(a) i) Mean=
+12
=7
ii) Variance=
+144
]-
=54.8333-49
=5.8333
31
1/12
1/18
1/36
1
=
=2.4152
32
(c)
Conjecture: As the number of n increases, the mean
will become closer to the theoretical mean, which are
7.00.
Support and proof
33
FURTHER
EXPLORATION
Further Exploration
Answer:
In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is atheorem that describes the
result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law,
theaverage of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to
the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
35
For example, a single roll of a six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die roll is
According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of dice are rolled, the
average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be close to
3.5, with the accuracy increasing as more dice are rolled.
Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of the number of
heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the
proportion of heads in a large number of coin flips should be roughly one half. In
particular, the proportion of heads after n flips will almost surely converge to one
half as n approaches infinity.
Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches half, almost surely the
absolute (nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as
the number of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute
difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips becomes large.
Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to number of flips will
approach zero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate
than the number of flips, as the number of flips grows.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for random
events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of
the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a
large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome
by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only
applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are
considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will converge
to the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced"
by the others.
36
An illustration of the Law of Large Numbers using die rolls. As the number of
die rolls increases, the average of the values of all the rolls approaches 3.5.
Same goes to the project, as the tosses increases to 100 times, the
mean become nearer to 7, which the actual value of mean. If the experiment
is continue until 200 times of tossing, the mean will become closer to 7.
37
REFLECTION
Reflection
38
39