1.

From the case, we know about the GDP of Singapore is increasing in 2015. But

for the increasing speed is slowest in the recent year, according to the economist, they
said the GDP will increasing in 3% to 5% in 2015, in fact the increasing is 2% only.
So the Singapore economy has been a tumultuous in the 2015. Government said in
2016 will increasing in 1% to 3%. And Singapore is a small country that meas the
country economy will influence by the other countries, such as America and China.
So the economy of Singapore will still in a tumultuous in 2016.
2.

GDP is the Gross Domestic Product, is the best way to measure a countrys

economy, it includes everything produced by all the people and companies that are in
the country.
The components of GDP are:
Personal Consumption Expenditures plus Business Investment plusGovernment
Spending plus (Exports minus Imports).
Types
There are many different ways that a country's Gross Domestic Product is measured.
It's important to know all the different types, and how they are used.
Nominal: In 2015, U.S. GDP was $17.947 trillion. This is known as nominal GDP,
which is the raw measurement that leaves price increases in the estimate. The U.S.
economic output is measured quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
However, the BEA revises that quarterly estimate each month as it receives updated
data.
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Real: To compare Gross Domestic Product from one year to another, it's important to
take out the effects of inflation. To do this, the BEA calculates real GDP. It does this
by using a price deflator, which tells you how much prices have changed since a base
year. The BEA multiplies the deflator by the nominal GDP. The BEA makes these
three important distinctions:
Income from U.S. companies and people from outside the country are not included, so
the impact of exchange rates and trade policies don't muddy up the number.
The effects of inflation are taken out.
Only the final product is counted, so that if someone in the U.S. makes shoelaces, and
it is used to make shoes in the U.S., only the value of the shoe gets counted.
Real GDP is, therefore, lower than nominal. In 2015, it was $16.349 trillion. The BEA

provides it using 2009 as the base year in Table 1.1.6.

Growth Rate: The GDP growth rate is the percent increase in the economy's
output from quarter to quarter. It tells you exactly how fast a country's economy is
growing. Most countries use real GDP to remove the effect of inflation.
In the U.S., the BEA calculates the growth rate. For the most recent quarterly report,
see Current GDP Statistics. Read U.S. GDP Growth to see the forecast of this
important economic indicator, and to compare it each year since 1929 with
the business cycle phase.
GDP per Capita: This is the best way to compare Gross Domestic Productbetween
countries. That's because some countries have a large economic output because they
have so many people. To get a more accurate picture, it's helpful to use GDP per
capita. This divides Gross Domestic Product by the number of people, and measures
the country'sstandard of living.
You've probably already guessed that the best way to compare Gross Domestic
Product by year and to other countries is with real GDP per capita. This takes out the
effect of inflation, exchange rates and differences in population.
3. For the US interest Rate, We have already seen one of the main impacts: a
stronger US dollar. Backed by higher US interest rates, the dollar tends to
depress the values of emerging market currencies at a time when many EM
economies are already weakening and their currencies have already slumped
against the greenback. The Feds rate rise could exacerbate the EM currency
turmoil, and even help precipitate a full-blown crisis.

4.

To the cyclical downtown to the globe commodity. I think should definition of the

cyclical and commodity.

Cyclical Companies
We usually define cyclical firms in relation to the overall economy. Firms that
move up and down with the economy are considered cyclical companies. There are
two
ways of identifying these firms:

The first is to categorize industry sectors into cyclical and non-cyclical, based on

historical performance, and to assume that all firms in the sector share the same
characteristics. For instance, the housing and automobile sectors have historically
been considered to be cyclical, and all firms in these sectors will share that label.
While the approach is low-cost and simple, we run the risk of tarring all firms in a
sector with the same brush; thus Walmart and Abercombie & Fitch would both be
categorized as cyclical firms because they are in the retailing business. In addition,
categorizing some sectors, such as technology, into cyclical or non-cyclical has
become much more difficult to do.

The second is to look at a companys own history, in conjunction with overall

economic performance, to make a categorization. Thus, a company that has

historically reported lower earnings/revenues during economic downturns and higher
earnings/revenues during economic boom times would be viewed as cyclical. This
approach allows for more nuance than the first one bit it works only when the
companies being analyzed have long operating histories. Furthermore, factors specific
to the firm can cause volatility in earnings that can make this analysis misleading.
In general, the shift from manufacturing-based economies to service-based
economies has made it more difficult to categorize firms. At the same time, though,
every economic recession reminds us that some firms are affected more negatively
than other when the economy slows down. In other words, it is not that there are
fewer cyclical firms today than there used to be two or three decades ago, but it is that
we have a more difficult time pinpointing these firms ahead of the fact.
Commodity Companies
We can categorize commodity companies into three groups. The first group has
products that are inputs to other businesses, but are not consumed by the general
public; included in this group would be mining companies like Vale, Rio Tinto and
BHP Billiton. The second group generates output that is marketed to consumers,
though there may other intermediaries involved in the process; in this group would be
most of the food and grains companies. The third group includes firms whose output
serves both other businesses and consumers; the oil and natural gas businesses come
to mind but gold mining companies can also be considered part of this group.
The key characteristic that commodity companies share is that they are producers
of the commodity and are thus dependent upon the price of the commodity for their

earnings and value. In some emerging market economies, with rich natural resources,
commodity companies can represent a significant portion of overall value. In the
Middle East, for instance, oil companies and their satellites account for the bulk of the
overall value of traded companies. In Australia and Latin America, agricultural,
forestry and mining companies have accounted for a disproportionate share of both
the overall economy and market value.
5. In the future, the economy for Singapore will still increasing that the speed of
it will not increase that fast like before, because the globe economy start to
become steady.
Reference
Aswath Damodaran, 2009, Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity
Companies.
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/commodity.pdf