Dilma Rises

The most recent two opinion polls concerning the intentions of voters in October’s
Brazilian Presidential election have noted a pronounced increase in the level of voting
intentions for the candidate of the Workers Party (“PT”), Dilma Rousseff. The results
reflect that Brazilian voters are beginning to feel more comfortable with her as a
candidate. In contrast, Jose Serra, the former Governor of the State of Sao Paulo, and the
pre-candidate of the PSDB has fallen only slightly in intentions, but now is no longer a
front runner with an advantage.

The Vox Populi poll shows Dilma with an increase of five percent since the last VP poll
in March, and Jose Serra down three percent. Marina Silva of the Green party is up 1% to
8% (The poll was taken before Marina Silva announced her Vice Presidential candidate,
Guilherme Leal, one of the owners of Natura.) The line, Not Vote line indicates voters, in
the Brazilian system where everyone is obliged by law to vote, that will not vote for any
of these candidates, and Don’t Know refers to voters that have the intention of voting, but
have not yet made up their mind.

Figure 1
Center North South
Brasil West East North East South
Dilma
Rousseff 38% 34% 45% 41% 36% 30%
Jose Serra 35% 33% 30% 32% 35% 45%
Marina Silva 8% 13% 4% 6% 9% 8%
Not vote 8% 4% 4% 4% 11% 6%
Don`t Know 11% 16% 17% 16% 9% 10%
Total 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99%

Figure 1, representing the VP first round numbers, also demonstrates the regional
differences between the candidates, with Dilma being strong in the North East and the
North, and Serra being strong in the South. A point of concern for Serra is perhaps his
apparent change of fortunes in the South East where he was leading in March by 43% to
27%, but now is in a tie with Dilma at the 35%/ 36% level. In an eventual second round,
Dilma would win 40% to 38% for Serra.

In the slightly more recent CNT/ Sensus poll, Dilma has 36% of voting intentions as
compared with Jose Serra’s 33%. This poll includes 8 other candidates that have declared
their intention to run, of which only two achieve 1%. However, excluding these
candidates, Serra maintains a lead of 38% to 37%. In the second round, assuming that
Marina Silva drops out, Dilma would obtain 42% of the vote as compared with 41% for
Serra.

The conclusion to draw from these polls, which provide a basis of comparison with other
polls to be issued later this month, is that the two candidates are essentially tied, but with
Dilma having more momentum, currently, than Jose Serra. The formal campaign will
only start in early July, but already it appears that this will be a long and hard campaign.