Canadian Economic Review

2 Capital Markets: Interest Rates

3 Capital Markets: Equities
4 Capital Markets: Currency, Commodities
5 Gross Domestic Product: Real, Nominal, Per Capita
6 GDP: Income-Based Composition of GDP
7 GDP: Expenditure Based Composition of GDP
8 Annual Changes in Income-Based Composition of GDP
9 Annual Changes in Expenditure-Based Composition of GDP
10 Merchandise Trade Exports and Imports
11 Wholesale Trade and Auto Sales
12 Retail Sales
13 Retail Sales Components
14 Labour Force Survey and Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours
15 Employment Data
16 Housing
17 Consumer Price Inflation
18 Annual Changes in Consumer Price Inflation
19 Monthly Changes in Consumer Price Inflation
20 Industrial Product Prices and Bank of Canada Commodity Prices
21 Money Supply and Velocity
` 22 Household Credit and Debt
23 Government Finances
24 Leading Economic Indicators
25 Senior Loan Officer Survey and Business Outlook Survey

with data available as of Friday, May 21, 2010

Canadian Economic Data 2

Interest Rates
14
Bank of Canada (from IMF pre‐'92) BoC 1yr exp
12
GoC10s Apr-10 0.25 1.72
10 Mar-10 0.25 1.55
10yr BEIR
Feb-10 0.25 0.66
8 Nov-09 0.25 0.51
Aug-09 0.25 0.75
6

4 GoC10 BEIR
Apr-10 3.69 2.40
2 Mar-10 3.57 2.26
0 Feb-10 3.39 2.02
Nov-09 3.22 1.75
Jun‐89 Jun‐92 Jun‐95 Jun‐98 Jun‐01 Jun‐04 Jun‐07
Aug-09 3.38 1.70
20
Taylor Rule 1 (assuming targets of 2% core CPI & 
9.5% unemployment til 1999, then 8% thru 2001,  Taylor Rule 1 Taylor Rule 2
then 6% after 2001) Apr-10 0.70 0.55
15
Mar-10 0.25 (0.20)
Taylor Rule 2 (assuming targets of 2% CPI & 9.5% 
Feb-10 0.85 0.10
unemployment til 1999, then 8% thru 2001, then 
10 Jan-10 0.55 0.40
6% after 2001)
Dec-09 (0.35) (0.65)
5 Nov-09 (0.35) (1.10)
Oct-09 0.10 (2.45)
Sep-09 (0.20) (3.80)
0
Aug-09 (0.65) (4.25)
Jul-09 (0.20) (4.25)
‐5 Jun-09 (0.05) (3.35)
Jan‐76 Jan‐79 Jan‐82 Jan‐85 Jan‐88 Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

1.50
1yr exp actual
1.00 Apr-10 1.72
0.50 Mar-10 1.55
0.00 Feb-10 0.66
Nov-09 0.51
‐0.50
Aug-09 0.75
‐1.00
BoC Chance of Moves Next 12  May-09 0.37
‐1.50 Mths (OIS) Feb-09 0.57 (0.75)
‐2.00 BoC actual change after 12  Nov-08 (1.50) (2.00)
mths Aug-08 (0.47) (2.75)
‐2.50
expectations "Miss"
‐3.00 May-08 (0.12) (2.75)
Feb-08 (0.78) (3.00)
Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10

Bloomberg Canada Government Bond IndexYoY Bloomberg Canada Government Bond Index 400

20%
350
Bloomberg Govt Bond
15% Apr-10 361.0
300
Mar-10 360.9
10% Feb-10 363.4
250
Nov-09 363.9
5%
200 Aug-09 358.5

0% 150 3mth YoY

Apr-10 -0.7% 0.3%
‐5% 100 Mar-10 0.9% -1.2%
Dec‐91 Nov‐94 Nov‐97 Nov‐00 Nov‐03 Nov‐06 Nov‐09 Feb-10 -0.1% 1.2%
Nov-09 1.5% 4.5%
Aug-09 1.1% 5.3%
Canadian Economic Data 3

Equities
80% 15,000
S&P/TSX Total Return YoY S&P/TSX Price
S&P/TSX
60% 12,500
Apr-10 12,211
Mar-10 12,038
40% 10,000
Dec-09 11,746
Sep-09 11,395
20% 7,500
Jun-09 10,375
0% 5,000
YoY Price Total Rtn
‐20% 2,500 Apr-10 31% 35%
Mar-10 38% 42%
‐40% 0 Dec-09 31% 35%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Sep-09 -3% 1%
Jun-09 -28% -26%
18 40,000 
S&P/TSX / GDP Canada S&P/TSX (Total Return)
16 35,000 
14 30,000 
12
25,000 
10
20,000 
8
15,000 
6
4 10,000 

2 5,000 

0 ‐
Jun‐61 Jun‐64 Jun‐67 Jun‐70 Jun‐73 Jun‐76 Jun‐79 Jun‐82 Jun‐85 Jun‐88 Jun‐91 Jun‐94 Jun‐97 Jun‐00 Jun‐03 Jun‐06 Jun‐09

2,500,000 15 

2,000,000 13 

1,500,000 11 

1,000,000 9 

500,000 7 
Bloomberg Canadian Stock Market Capitalization CAD Canadian Stock Market Capitalization / GDP
0 5 
Sep‐03 Sep‐04 Sep‐05 Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09

S&P/TSX Financials YoY S&P/TSX Energy YoY S&P/TSX Materials YoY

75%

50%

25%

0%

‐25%

‐50%
Dec‐88 Nov‐91 Nov‐94 Nov‐97 Nov‐00 Nov‐03 Nov‐06 Nov‐09
Canadian Economic Data 4

Currency
1.60
C$/US$
1.50 Apr-10 1.02
1.40 Mar-10 1.02
Feb-10 1.05
1.30
Jan-10 1.07
1.20 Dec-09 1.05
Nov-09 1.06
1.10
Oct-09 1.08
1.00 Sep-09 1.07
Aug-09 1.09
0.90
C$/US$ Jul-09 1.08
0.80 Jun-09 1.16
Jun‐89 Jun‐92 Jun‐95 Jun‐98 Jun‐01 Jun‐04 Jun‐07

125
C$ Effective Exchange Rate Index
CEER
Apr-10 119.4
Mar-10 118.7
Feb-10 114.3
Jan-10 112.8
100
Dec-09 114.6
Nov-09 112.4
Oct-09 110.8
Sep-09 111.6
Aug-09 109.4
Jul-09 111.2
75 Jun-09 103.6
Jan‐00 Jan‐02 Jan‐04 Jan‐06 Jan‐08 Jan‐10
Commodities
160 1 400
1,400  Gold Oil
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (C$) Gold (C$) Apr-10 1200 87.68
140 1,200  Mar-10 1130 85.04
120 Feb-10 1175 83.78
1,000 
Jan-10 1157 78.04
100
800  Dec-09 1155 83.59
80 Nov-09 1246 81.62
600  Oct-09 1134 83.53
60
Sep-09 1078 75.52
400 
40 Aug-09 1040 76.52
200  Jul-09 1028 74.84
20
Jun-09 1077 81.24
0 ‐
Jun‐89 Jun‐92 Jun‐95 Jun‐98 Jun‐01 Jun‐04 Jun‐07
40% 500 CRB YoY
CRB C$ YoY CRB US Spot Raw Industrials (C$)
30% Apr-10 283 7%
450 Mar-10 278 0%
20% Feb-10 289 7%
400 Jan-10 284 5%
10%
Dec-09 298 7%
0% 350 Nov-09 293 -2%
Oct-09 293 -10%
‐10%
300 Sep-09 277 -25%
‐20% Aug-09 277 -33%
250 Jul-09 277 -35%
‐30%
Jun-09 291 -39%
‐40% 200
Dec‐91 Nov‐94 Nov‐97 Nov‐00 Nov‐03 Nov‐06 Nov‐09
Canadian Economic Data 5

Real GDP
4 10 Qrtrly QoQ YoY
Real GDP QoQ Real GDP YoY Real GDP YoY (mthly) Q4/09 1.2 (1.2)
8
3 Q3/09 0.2 (3.3)
6 Q2/09 (0.9) (3.5)
2 Q1/09 (1.6) (2.3)
4
Q4/08 (1.0) (1.0)
1 2
Q3/08 0.1 0.3
0
0
Mthly MoM YoY
‐2
Feb-10 0.3 1.8
‐1
‐4 Jan-10 0.6 1.3
‐2 ‐6 Dec-09 0.4 -
Nov-09 0.5 (1.5)
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06
Oct-09 0.3 (2.7)
Nominal GDP Sep-09 0.5 (3.1)
6 20
Nominal GDP QoQ Nominal GDP YoY QoQ YoY
4 15 Q4/09 2.4 (0.7)
Q3/09 1.1 (6.7)
2 10 Q2/09 (0.7) (6.8)
Q1/09 (3.1) (3.6)
0 5
Q4/08 (3.8) 0.7
Q3/08 0.9 6.1
‐2 0

‐4 ‐5

‐6 ‐10
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

Nominal and Real GDP

1,700 1,300 Real GDP Change
Nominal GDP Real GDP Q4/09 1,209.3 1.4%
1,600
Q3/09 1,193.1 0.6%
1,500 1,200
Q2/09 1,186.4 -0.6%
1,400 Q1/09 1,193.1 -1.4%
1,100
1,300 Q4/08 1,209.5 -1.8%
1,200
1,000 Nominal Change
1,100
Q4/09 1,560.0 2.4%
1,000 900 Q3/09 1,524.0 1.1%
900 Q2/09 1,507.9 -0.9%
800 800 Q1/09 1,521.6 -3.1%
Jan‐97 Jan‐98 Jan‐99 Jan‐00 Jan‐01 Jan‐02 Jan‐03 Jan‐04 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Q4/08 1,570.6 -3.8%

GDP Per Capita off peak Real Nominal

38,000 trough -4.6% -7.6%

World Bank GDP Per Capita Intl Dollars Canada current -2.5% -4.4%
36,000
US Census Population Estimate Canada
34,000 GDP per cap Population
Dec-08 36,444 33,213
32,000
Dec-07 35,812 32,936
30,000 Dec-06 36,761 32,657
28,000 Dec-05 35,065 32,386
Dec-04 32,810 32,135
26,000

24,000

22,000
Jan‐97 Jan‐98 Jan‐99 Jan‐00 Jan‐01 Jan‐02 Jan‐03 Jan‐04 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10
Canadian Economic Data 6

Income-Based Composition of GDP

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

Wages & Salaries & Supplemental Income Corporate Profit Before Taxes Govt Profit

Interest & Investment Income NI of Farm & UnIncorporated NonFarm Inventory Valuation Adjustment
Tax Less Subsidies on Factors of Production Tax Less Subsidies on Products Capital Consumption Allowance
Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Mar-09 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-08 YoY QoQ
Wages & Salaries & Supplemental Income 832 820 819 824 832 53% 53% 0% 1%
Corporate Profit Before Taxes 156 143 131 148 183 10% 12% -15% 9%
Govt Profit 14 11 12 13 14 1% 1% 2% 30%
Interest & Investment Income 70 66 62 66 78 4% 5% -10% 5%
NI of Farm & UnIncorporated NonFarm 103 101 100 96 98 7% 6% 5% 2%
Inventory Valuation Adjustment (1) 3 8 2 (10) 0% -1% -88% -139%
Tax Less Subsidies on Factors of Production 72 70 70 69 70 5% 4% 3% 2%
Tax Less Subsidies on Products 94 93 92 91 93 6% 6% 1% 2%
Capital Consumption Allowance 221 218 216 214 212 14% 14% 4% 1%
Total 1,560 1,524 1,508 1,522 1,571 100% 100% -1% 2%

57% 15%
Wages & Salaries & Supplemental Income / GDP
56%

55%

54%
10%
53%

52%
Corporate Profit Before 
51% Taxes / GDP
50% 5%
Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01 Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01

2% 12%
Interest & Investment Income / GDP
NI of Farm & UnIncorporated NonFarm / GDP

1% 9%

0% 6%

Govt Profit / GDP

‐1% 3%
Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01 Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01
Canadian Economic Data 7

Expenditure-Based Composition of GDP

1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
‐250
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06
Personal Expenditures Govt Expenditures Govt Gross Fixed Investment & Inventories
Residential Investment Non‐Residential Investment Machinery & Equipment
NonFarm & Farm Business Investment Net Exports

Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Mar-09 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-08 YoY QoQ

Personal Expenditures 912 900 890 887 889 58% 57% 3% 1%
Govt Expenditures 341 334 329 324 320 22% 20% 7% 2%
Govt Gross Fixed Investment & Inventories 64 62 59 58 57 4% 4% 13% 4%
Residential Investment 108 100 97 95 102 7% 7% 5% 8%
Non-Residential Investment 80 82 84 94 101 5% 6% -20% -2%
Machinery & Equipment 84 88 86 94 104 5% 7% -19% -4%
NonFarm & Farm Business Investment (10) (6) (11) (12) 8 -1% 0% -232% 82%
Exports 451 427 419 457 538 29% 34% -16% 6%
Imports (471) (465) (447) (477) (548) -30% -35% -14% 1%
Total 1,560 1,524 1,508 1,522 1,571 100% 100% -1% 2%

65% 25%
Personal Expenditures / GDP

60%

20%

55%

Govt Expenditures & Investment / GDP
50% 15%
Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01 Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01

50%
10%

25%

5% 0%

Other Investment / GDP ‐25%
Non‐Residential Investment / GDP
Exports / GDP Imports / GDP Net Exports / GDP
Residential Investment / GDP ‐50%
0%
Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01 Jun‐61 Jun‐71 Jun‐81 Jun‐91 Jun‐01
Canadian Economic Data 8

Annual Changes in Income-Based Composition of GDP

Personal Income
25%
YoY QoQ
Dec-09 0% 1%
20%
Sep-09 -1% 0%
Jun-09 0% -1%
15%
Mar-09 1% -1%
Dec-08 4% 1%
10%
Sep-08 5% 1%

5%

0%

Wages & Salaries & Supplemental Income
‐5%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

50% Corporate Profit

YoY QoQ
Dec-09 -15% 9%
25%
Sep-09 -40% 9%
Jun-09 -43% -11%
0% Mar-09 -31% -19%
Dec-08 -12% -23%
Sep-08 16% 4%
‐25%

Corporate Profit Before Taxes
‐50%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

50%
Investment Income
YoY QoQ
Dec-09 -10% 5%
25% Sep-09 -23% 7%
Jun-09 -27% -5%
Mar-09 -14% -15%
Dec-08 5% -10%
0% Sep-08 18% 1%

Interest & Investment Income
‐25%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

30% Farm & Unincorp

25% YoY QoQ
Dec-09 5% 2%
20%
Sep-09 4% 1%
15% Jun-09 5% 4%
10% Mar-09 3% -2%
5% Dec-08 8% 0%
Sep-08 8% 2%
0%
‐5%
NI of Farm & UnIncorporated NonFarm
‐10%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06
Canadian Economic Data 9

Annual Changes in Expenditure-Based Composition of GDP

YoY PCE Govt
25%
Dec-09 3% 8%
Sep-09 0% 7%
20%
Jun-09 0% 6%
Mar-09 1% 7%
15%
Dec-08 2% 9%

10%

QoQ PCE Govt

5%
Dec-09 1% 2%
Sep-09 1% 2%
0%
Jun-09 0% 2%
Personal Expenditures Govt Expenditures & Investment
Mar-09 0% 1%
‐5%
Dec-08 -1% 2%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

YoY Res Non Res

50% Dec-09 5% -20%
Sep-09 -9% -18%
Jun-09 -13% -13%
25%
Mar-09 -14% 0%
Dec-08 -8% 8%
0%

QoQ Res Non Res

‐25%
Dec-09 8% -2%
Sep-09 3% -3%
Residential Investment Non‐Residential Investment
‐50% Jun-09 2% -11%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Mar-09 -7% -6%
Dec-08 -6% 0%

40%
YoY Mach/Eqp Farm/Non
30% Dec-09 -19% -232%
Sep-09 -15% -141%
20%
Jun-09 -15% -201%
10% Mar-09 -8% -508%
Dec-08 3% -59%
0%

‐10%
QoQ Mach/Eqp Farm/Non
‐20% Dec-09 -4% 82%
Machinery & Equipment Sep-09 2% -50%
‐30% Jun-09 -8% -9%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Mar-09 -10% -258%
Dec-08 1% -43%
40%
YoY Exports Imports
30% Dec-09 -16% -14%
Sep-09 -28% -16%
20%
Jun-09 -27% -16%
10% Mar-09 -16% -7%
Dec-08 4% 10%
0%

‐10%
QoQ Exports Imports
‐20% Dec-09 6% 1%
Exports Imports Sep-09 2% 4%
‐30%
Jun-09 -8% -6%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Mar-09 -15% -13%
Dec-08 -9% -1%
Canadian Economic Data 10

Merchandise Trade: Total Exports

50% 45
12mth change in Exports Merchandise Trade Total Exports
40% 40 Exports 12mth chng
Mar-10 33.5 3.1%
30% 35
Feb-10 33.8 1.7%
20% 30 Jan-10 33.1 5.7%
10% 25 Dec-09 32.9 -6.0%
0% 20 Sep-09 30.1 -28.4%
Jun-09 29.3 -32.6%
‐10% 15
Mar-09 32.5 -18.9%
‐20% 10
‐30% 5
‐40% 0 Imports 12mth chng
Mar-10 33.3 6.0%
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Feb-10 32.6 0.2%
Merchandise Trade: Total Imports Jan-10 32.3 0.3%
40% 40 Dec-09 32.8 -8.1%
12mth change in Imports Merchandise Trade Total Imports Sep-09 31.0 -18.7%
30% 35
Jun-09 29.3 -22.7%
30 Mar-09 31.4 -8.8%
20%
25
10% Net Exports
20
Mar-10 0.3
0%
15 Feb-10 1.2
‐10% Jan-10 0.8
10
Dec-09 0.1
‐20% 5 Sep-09 (0.8)
‐30% 0 Jun-09 0.0
Mar-09 1.1
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Merchandise Trade: Exports to U.S.

40% 40
X to US 12mth chng
30% 35
Mar-10 24.5 4.6%
20% 30 Feb-10 25.1 2.3%
10% 25 Jan-10 24.8 7.1%
Dec-09 24.8 -3.3%
0% 20
Sep-09 21.9 -30.5%
‐10% 15 Jun-09 21.6 -35.1%
Mar-09 23.4 -24.0%
‐20% 10

‐30% 5 M from US 12mth chng

12mth change in Exports to US Merchandise Trade Exports to US SA
‐40% 0 Mar-10 20.6 4.0%
Feb-10 20.8 0.6%
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Jan-10 20.6 3.8%
Merchandise Trade: Imports from U.S. Dec-09 20.6 -8.0%
40% 25 Sep-09 19.9 -16.2%
Jun-09 18.4 -21.9%
30%
20 Mar-09 19.8 -10.3%
20%
Net Exports to US YoY
10% 15
Mar-10 3.8 8.0%
Feb-10 4.3 11.7%
0% 10 Jan-10 4.2 26.7%
‐10% Dec-09 4.2 29.6%
5 Sep-09 2.0 -74.2%
‐20% Jun-09 3.2 -67.0%
12mth change in Imports from US Merchandise Trade Imports to US SA
‐30% 0 Mar-09 3.5 -59.0%

Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Canadian Economic Data 11

Wholesale Trade
20% 50
12mth change in Wholesale Trade Wholesale Trade Wholesale 12mth chng
15% 45
Feb-10 43.8 7.8%
40 Jan-10 44.4 7.9%
10% Dec-09 43.4 1.0%
35 Sep-09 41.6 -9.5%
5%
Jun-09 40.8 -9.5%
30
Mar-09 40.5 -5.9%
0%
25 Dec-08 42.9 0.8%

‐5% 20

‐10% 15
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Wholesale Trade: Inventory to Sales Ratio and Manufacturing Capacity Utilizatioin

1.5 100
I-S Ratio Cap Util
Mar-10 - -
1.4 90 Feb-10 1.17 70.9
Jan-10 1.15 70.9
Oct-09 1.25 68.7
1.3 80 Jul-09 1.29 68.5
Apr-09 1.43 70.2
Jan-09 1.43 74.9
1.2 Wholesale Trade Inventory/Sales Ratio 70
I/S Trendline
Capacity Utilization
1.1 60
Mar‐87 Mar‐90 Mar‐93 Mar‐96 Mar‐99 Mar‐02 Mar‐05 Mar‐08
New Motor Vehicle Sales

T lN M
Total New Motor Vehicle Sales SA YoY
V hi l S l SA Y Y T lN M
Total New Motor Vehicle Sales SA
V hi l S l SA
25% 150,000 Vehicle Sales 12mth chng
Mar-10 132,867 10%
Feb-10 138,666 23%
Jan-10 127,813 8%
125,000
Oct-09 134,079 -2%
0% Jul-09 127,374 -8%
Apr-09 120,024 -17%
100,000 Jan-09 118,738 -26%

‐25% 75,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Domestic Auto Sales

40% 200
Domestic Sales 12mth chng
30% 175
Mar-10 145.4 14%
20% 150 Feb-10 100.2 25%
Jan-10 81.6 6%
10% 125 Oct-09 121.5 -1%
Jul-09 139.9 -6%
0% 100
Apr-09 143.9 -18%
‐10% 75 Jan-09 76.9 -25%

‐20% 50
Monthly Domestic Auto Sales YoY Monthly Domestic Auto Sales 12 mth smoothed
‐30% 25
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 12

Retail Sales
35,000 Autos (New, Used & Parts) Autos 3mth chng 12mth chng
Gas Mar-10 4.4% 16.0%
30,000 Furniture, Furnishings, Electronics Dec-09 0.7% 17.6%
Building & Outdoor Supplies
Mar-09 5.8% -14.6%
25,000 Food & Beverage
Pharmacies
20,000 Clothing & Accessories Gas 3mth chng 12mth chng
General Merchandise & Misc Mar-10 6.0% 23.3%
15,000
Dec-09 5.6% 17.3%
10,000 Mar-09 0.8% -23.9%

5,000 EX- 3mth chng 12mth chng

0 Mar-10 3.8% 5.5%
Dec-09 0.1% 2.3%
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Mar-09 0.7% 1.0%
Retail Sales: Total
6% 40,000
3mth chng 12mth chng
3% 35,000 Mar-10 4.1% 9.1%
Feb-10 2.2% 7.0%
Jan-10 1.0% 6.6%
0% 30,000
Oct-09 2.2% -1.6%
Jul-09 2.4% -4.0%
‐3% 25,000 Apr-09 0.9% -5.3%
Jan-09 -6.7% -6.4%
‐6% 20,000

3mth % Change in Retail Sales Retail Sales
‐9% 15,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Retail Sales: ex-Autos & Gas

7% 30,000
3mth % Change in ex‐Autos and Gas ex‐Autos and Gas 3mth chng 12mth chng
6%
5% Mar-10 3.8% 5.5%
25,000 Feb-10 2.1% 3.4%
4%
Jan-10 1.8% 4.2%
3%
Oct-09 0.7% 0.5%
2% 20,000
Jul-09 1.0% 0.1%
1% Apr-09 0.7% 0.7%
0% Jan-09 -1.9% 0.0%
15,000
‐1%
‐2%
‐3% 10,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Retail Sales: Autos & Gas

15% 14,000
3mth % Change in Autos & Gas Autos & Gas 3mth chng 12mth chng
10%
12,000 Mar-10 5.0% 18.6%
5% Feb-10 2.4% 16.5%
Jan-10 -0.7% 13.0%
0% 10,000
Oct-09 6.0% -6.1%
Jul-09 6.0% -12.8%
‐5% 8,000 Apr-09 1.3% -18.2%
‐10% Jan-09 -17.4% -19.9%
6,000
‐15%

‐20% 4,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 13

Retail Sales: Food and Beverage

6% 9,000
3mth % Change in Food & Beverage Food & Beverage

4% 8,000 3mth chng 12mth chng

Mar-10 2.8% 1.4%
2% 7,000 Feb-10 1.7% 2.2%
Jan-10 1.3% 1.6%
Oct-09 0.1% 0.4%
0% 6,000
Jul-09 -0.8% 3.0%
Apr-09 1.0% 5.8%
‐2% 5,000 Jan-09 0.1% 6.2%

‐4% 4,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Retail Sales: Pharmacies & Personal Services

9% 3,000
3mth % Change in Pharmacies Pharmacies 3mth chng 12mth chng
6% Mar-10 4.7% 6.7%
2,500 Feb-10 0.2% 4.5%
Jan-10 -0.3% 3.0%
3%
Oct-09 -0.7% 4.2%
2,000
Jul-09 3.6% 5.5%
0% Apr-09 0.4% 1.8%
Jan-09 0.8% 2.2%
1,500
‐3%

‐6% 1,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Retail Sales: Building & Outdoor Supplies

20% 3,000
3mth % Change in Building & Outdoor Supplies
3mth chng 12mth chng
15% Building & Outdoor Supplies 2,500 Mar-10 8.2% 14.6%
10% Feb-10 0.5% 7.1%
2,000 Jan-10 10.5% 23.2%
5%
Oct-09 1.3% 1.8%
0% 1,500
Jul-09 3.0% -2.0%
‐5% Apr-09 6.9% 0.0%
1,000
Jan-09 -8.8% -9.3%
‐10%
500
‐15%

‐20% 0
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Retail Sales: Clothing, Accessories; General Merchandise & Miscellaneous

10% 7,000
3mth % Change in Clothing, Accessories; General Merch&Misc 3mth chng 12mth chng
6,500
8% Clothing, Accessories; General Merch&Misc 6,000 Mar-10 4.7% 7.6%
6% Feb-10 5.5% 5.1%
5,500
Jan-10 0.3% 2.9%
4% 5,000
Oct-09 1.9% 1.9%
4,500
Jul-09 0.7% -0.6%
2% 4,000 Apr-09 0.0% 0.0%
0% 3,500 Jan-09 -0.7% 0.7%
3,000
‐2%
2,500
‐4% 2,000
Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 14

Employment - Labour Force Survey

300 18,000 Jobs (LFS) 3m Change
Apr-10 17,072 148
200 16,500 Mar-10 16,963 82
Feb-10 16,945 36
100 15,000 Jan-10 16,924 87
Dec-09 16,881 21
0 13,500
Nov-09 16,910 90
Oct-09 16,838 51
‐100 12,000
Sep-09 16,861 43
Aug-09 16,820 7
‐200 10,500
3mth Net Change Jobs Employment (Household LFS) Jul-09 16,787 (68)
‐300 9,000 Jun-09 16,818 (1)

Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06

Employment - Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours Payrolls (SEPH) 3m Change

200 16,000 Feb-10 14,541 44
150 Jan-10 14,532 38
100 Dec-09 14,532 34
50 14,000 Nov-09 14,497 21
0
Oct-09 14,495 (40)
‐50
Sep-09 14,499 (17)
‐100 12,000
Aug-09 14,475 (68)
‐150
‐200 Jul-09 14,535 (40)
3mth Net Change Payrolls Total Non‐Farm Payroll Employment (SEPH) Jun-09 14,516 (87)
‐250 10,000
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06 May-09 14,544 (106)
Apr-09 14,575 (111)

15,500 17,500
Total Non‐Farm Payroll Employment (SEPH) Employment (Household LFS)

17,250
15,000

17,000

14,500
16,750

14,000 16,500
Dec‐07 Jun‐08 Dec‐08 Jun‐09 Dec‐09
Canadian Economic Data 15

Labour Force FullTime 3m Change

4,000 15,000 Apr-10 13,768 90
Part‐Time Full‐Time (r.h.s.) Mar-10 13,725 47
Dec-09 13,677 18
Sep-09 13,659 120
3,000 12,500 Jun-09 13,540 (78)
Mar-09 13,617 (304)

PartTime 3m Change
2,000 10,000 Apr-10 3,304 65
Mar-10 3,239 32
Feb-10 3,207 (39)
Jan-10 3,246 99
1,000 7,500 Oct-09 3,146 (111)
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06 Jul-09 3,258 41

Unemployed 3m Change
1,500
Apr-10 1,498 (17)
Mar-10 1,515 (4)
Feb-10 1,519 (12)
Jan-10 1,532 (10)
Oct-09 1,542 (36)
1,000
Jul-09 1,578 113

Unemployed

500
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06
U
Unemployment
l t Rate
R t
13
Unemployment
12
Apr-10 8.1
11 Mar-10 8.2
10 Feb-10 8.2
9 Jan-10 8.3
Oct-09 8.4
8
Jul-09 8.6
7
6
5 Unemployment Rate
4
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06
Labour Force Participation Rate
70 Participtn
Apr-10 67.2
68 Mar-10 67.0
Dec-09 67.1
66 Sep-09 67.1
Jun-09 67.4
Mar-09 67.3
64
Dec-08 67.6

62
Labour Force Participation Rate Labour Force Participation Rate (12mth smoothed)
60
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06
Canadian Economic Data 16

Employment Insurance
200,000 1,500,000
EI (000s) 3mth chng
150,000 1,250,000
Mar-10 - -
Feb-10 692.2 (86)
100,000 1,000,000
Jan-10 698.1 (103)
Oct-09 801.2 7
50,000 750,000
Jul-09 794.1 81
0 500,000 Apr-09 713.1 147
Jan-09 565.8 65
‐50,000 250,000 Oct-08 500.3 (3)

3 mth Change in EI Recipients EI Recipients
‐100,000 0
Jan‐76 Jan‐81 Jan‐86 Jan‐91 Jan‐96 Jan‐01 Jan‐06

Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings

25 900
Hourly Earnings Weekly Earnings Hrly Earnings Wkly Earn
800
Mar-10 22.5 813
20 700
Dec-09 22.4 811
600 Sep-09 22.2 813
15 Jun-09 21.9 801
500
Mar-09 22.0 796
400
10 Dec-08 21.8 796
300

5 200
100
0 0
Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Labour Productivity
2 4
Labour Productivity ‐ Qtrly Labour Productivity YoY Productivity YoY
Dec-09 1.4 1.1
Sep-09 (0.1) (0.4)
1 2
Jun-09 (0.2) (0.2)
Mar-09 - -
Dec-08 (0.1) (1.0)
0 0 Sep-08 0.1 (1.1)

‐1 ‐2
Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 17

Housing Starts
100% 300
12mth Change in Starts Housing Starts Starts 12mth chng
75% 250 Apr-10 201 69%
Mar-10 199 36%
50% 200 Feb-10 204 59%
Jan-10 193 34%
25% 150
Dec-09 176 2%
Nov-09 176 2%
0% 100
Oct-09 188 -10%
Sep-09 166 -22%
‐25% 50
Aug-09 162 -25%
‐50% 0 Jul-09 139 -28%
Jun-09 143 -33%
Jan‐77 Jan‐82 Jan‐87 Jan‐92 Jan‐97 Jan‐02 Jan‐07

Building Permits

12mth Change in Permits Building Permits Permits 12mth chng

50% 8
Mar-10 6.3 38%
Feb-10 5.6 55%
25% 6 Jan-10 5.7 30%
Dec-09 6.0 28%
0% 4 Nov-09 6.1 27%
Oct-09 6.2 15%
Sep-09 5.3 -17%
‐25% 2 Aug-09 5.2 -9%
Jul-09 4.8 -25%
‐50% 0 Jun-09 5.3 -16%
May-09 5.1 -23%
Jan‐77 Jan‐82 Jan‐87 Jan‐92 Jan‐97 Jan‐02 Jan‐07

New House Price Index

20% 160
New House Price Index YoY New House Price Index
House Price YoY
15%
140 Mar-10 157.1 2%
Dec-09 156.0 -1%
10%
120 Sep-09 154.4 -3%
Jun-09 153.2 -3%
5%
Mar-09 154.6 -2%
100
0% Dec-08 157.4 0%
Sep-08 158.7 2%
80 Jun-08 158.5 4%
‐5%
Mar-08 158.4 6%
‐10% 60 Dec-07 156.7 6%
Jan‐77 Jan‐82 Jan‐87 Jan‐92 Jan‐97 Jan‐02 Jan‐07 Sep-07 155.5 6%

Overall Average Mortgage Rates

8 Rate
Apr-10 4.65
7 Mar-10 4.13
Feb-10 4.18
6 Jan-10 4.25
Dec-09 4.25
Nov-09 4.45
5
Oct-09 4.63
Sep-09 4.51
4
Aug-09 4.70
Average Mortgage Rates
Jul-09 4.72
3 Jun-09 4.72
Dec‐97 Nov‐98 Nov‐99 Nov‐00 Nov‐01 Nov‐02 Nov‐03 Nov‐04 Nov‐05 Nov‐06 Nov‐07 Nov‐08 Nov‐09
Canadian Economic Data 18

Consumer Price Inflation

120
CPI BoC Core CPI CPI BoC Core
115 Apr-10 116.0 115.3
Mar-10 115.6 115.0
110
Feb-10 115.6 115.2
105 Jan-10 115.1 114.4
Dec-09 114.8 114.3
100 Sep-09 114.7 114.1
Jun-09 115.1 113.7
95

90

85
Jan‐95 Jan‐97 Jan‐99 Jan‐01 Jan‐03 Jan‐05 Jan‐07 Jan‐09
Components of Consumer Prices
125
CPI Goods CPI Services
120 Goods Services
115 Apr-10 109.4 122.6
Mar-10 109.0 122.2
110
Feb-10 108.5 122.6
105 Jan-10 108.4 121.8
Dec-09 107.6 121.8
100
Sep-09 107.4 121.9
95 Jun-09 108.6 121.5
90

85
Jan‐95 Jan‐97 Jan‐99 Jan‐01 Jan‐03 Jan‐05 Jan‐07 Jan‐09
125
CPI Food CPI Shelter
120

115 Food Shelter

110 Apr-10 122.8 122.4
Mar-10 123.1 121.7
105 Feb-10 122.7 121.8
100 Jan-10 122.3 121.8
Dec-09 121.8 121.3
95
Sep-09 120.4 120.9
90 Jun-09 122.2 121.3
85
Jan‐95 Jan‐97 Jan‐99 Jan‐01 Jan‐03 Jan‐05 Jan‐07 Jan‐09

175
CPI Transportation CPI Health and Personal Care CPI Energy

Transport Energy
150
Apr-10 117.4 136.0
Mar-10 117.1 134.5
Feb-10 116.7 132.3
125
Jan-10 117.2 133.9
Dec-09 115.5 130.3
Sep-09 113.6 131.3
100
Jun-09 116.1 133.9

75
Jan‐95 Jan‐97 Jan‐99 Jan‐01 Jan‐03 Jan‐05 Jan‐07 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 19

Annual Changes in Consumer Price Inflation

5
CPI YoY BoC Core CPI YoY YoY CPI BoC Core
4 Apr-10 1.8% 1.9%
Mar-10 1.4% 1.7%
3 Feb-10 1.6% 2.1%
Jan-10 1.9% 2.0%
2
Dec-09 1.3% 1.5%
Sep-09 -0.9% 1.5%
1
Jun-09 -0.3% 1.9%

‐1
Jan‐95 Jan‐97 Jan‐99 Jan‐01 Jan‐03 Jan‐05 Jan‐07 Jan‐09

Annual Changes in Components of Consumer Prices

15%

Goods Services
10% Apr-10 2.2% 1.6%
Mar-10 1.3% 1.5%
Feb-10 1.1% 2.0%
5% Jan-10 2.1% 1.8%
Dec-09 1.0% 1.4%
Sep-09 -3.7% 1.8%
0% Jun-09 -2.7% 2.0%
Mar-09 -0.5% 2.8%
CPI Goods YoY CPI Services YoY
‐5%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06
Food Shelter
15% Apr-10 1.0% 0.8%
Mar-10 1.3% -0.7%
Feb-10 1.2% -1.1%
10% Jan-10 1.4% -1.1%
Dec-09 1.7% -1.7%
Sep-09 2.8% -1.8%
5%
Jun-09 5.5% -0.8%
Mar-09 7.9% 2.1%
0%
Energy Transport
Apr-10 9.8% 6.2%
CPI Food YoY CPI Shelter YoY
‐5% Mar-10 5.8% 6.0%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Feb-10 4.0% 5.9%
Jan-10 8.2% 7.7%
20% Dec-09 5.9% 4.7%
Sep-09 -18.7% -7.2%
15%
Jun-09 -19.0% -7.7%
10% Mar-09 -11.2% -6.2%

5%
Health/Pers Clothing
0% Apr-10 3.3% -1.1%
‐5% Mar-10 2.7% -2.2%
Feb-10 3.0% -2.6%
‐10%
Jan-10 3.1% -1.9%
CPI Transportation YoY CPI Health and Personal Care YoY
‐15% Dec-09 3.0% -0.8%
CPI Energy YoY CPI Clothing and Footwear YoY Sep-09 3.9% -1.2%
‐20%
Jun-09 3.8% -1.3%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06
Mar-09 2.4% -0.3%
Canadian Economic Data 20

Monthly Changes in Consumer Price Inflation

1.0% 0.75% MoM CPI BoC Core
Apr-10 0.3% 0.3%
0.50% Mar-10 0.0% -0.2%
0.5% Feb-10 0.4% 0.7%
0.25% Jan-10 0.3% 0.1%
Dec-09 -0.3% -0.3%
0.0%
0.00% Nov-09 0.5% 0.4%
Oct-09 -0.1% 0.1%
‐0.25% Sep-09 0.0% 0.3%
‐0.5%
Aug-09 0.0% 0.1%
CPI MoM ‐0.50% Jul-09 -0.3% 0.0%
BoC Core CPI MoM
‐1.0% Jun-09 0.3% 0.0%
May-09 0.7% 0.4%
Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐1

1.5% 0.50% MoM Goods Services

1.0% Apr-10 0.4% 0.3%
Mar-10 0.5% -0.3%
0.5% 0.25%
Feb-10 0.1% 0.7%
0.0% Jan-10 0.7% 0.0%
0.00% Dec-09 -0.9% 0.0%
‐0.5%
Nov-09 1.5% -0.2%
‐1.0% Oct-09 -0.4% 0.2%
‐0.25%
Sep-09 -0.4% 0.2%
‐1.5%
Aug-09 0.1% 0.0%
‐2.0% CPI Goods MoM ‐0.50% Jul-09 -0.8% 0.1%
CPI Services MoM
‐2.5% Jun-09 0.5% 0.2%
May-09 1.0% 0.5%
Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐1

2.0% 0.50% MoM Food Shelter

CPI Shelter MoM Apr-10 -0.2% 0.6%
1.5% Mar-10 0.3% -0.1%
0.25%
Feb-10 0.3% 0.0%
1.0% Jan-10 0.4% 0.4%
0.00% Dec-09 0.2% 0.0%
0.5%
Nov-09 1.2% 0.1%
Oct-09 -0.2% 0.2%
0.0% ‐0.25%
Sep-09 -0.9% -0.2%
Aug-09 -0.7% 0.2%
‐0.5%
CPI Food MoM ‐0.50% Jul-09 0.1% -0.4%
‐1.0% Jun-09 0.2% -0.1%
May-09 0.2% 0.0%
Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐1

6% 1.25% MoM Energy Health

4% 1.00% Apr-10 1.1% 1.1%
0.75% Mar-10 1.7% -0.2%
2%
0.50% Feb-10 -1.2% -0.1%
0% Jan-10 2.8% 0.5%
0.25%
‐2% Dec-09 -1.6% -0.4%
0.00%
‐4% Nov-09 2.8% 0.6%
‐0.25% Oct-09 -1.9% -0.7%
‐6%
‐0.50% Sep-09 -1.0% 1.1%
‐8% ‐0.75% Aug-09 2.3% 0.0%
‐10% CPI Energy MoM ‐1.00% Jul-09 -3.2% -0.3%
CPI Health and Personal Care MoM
‐12% Jun-09 3.5% 0.6%
May-09 4.4% 0.9%
Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐1
Canadian Economic Data 21

Industrial Product Prices

25% 140
Industrial Product Price YoY Industrial Product Price YoY IPP Finished
20% 120
Apr-10 0% 0%
15% 100 Jan-10 0% -2%
Oct-09 -6% -4%
10% 80 Jul-09 -7% -1%
Apr-09 -2% 3%
5% 60
Jan-09 1% 5%
0% 40 Oct-08 10% 9%

‐5% 20

‐10% 0
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

40%
Industrial Product Price Intermediate Goods YoY
YoY Intermedt Raw
30% Industrial Product Price Finished Goods YoY
Raw Materials Price Index YoY Apr-10 0% 0%
20% Jan-10 1% 29%
10% Oct-09 -8% -7%
Jul-09 -11% -35%
0%
Apr-09 -6% -31%
‐10% Jan-09 -1% -32%
Oct-08 10% -1%
‐20%

‐30%

‐40%
Jan‐82 Jan‐85 Jan‐88 Jan‐91 Jan‐94 Jan‐97 Jan‐00 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Jan‐09

Bank of Canada Commodity Prices

100%
BoC Commodity Average Ex‐Energy Price YoY BoC Commodity Average Energy Price YoY YoY ex-Energy Energy
80%
Apr-10 31% 50%
60% Jan-10 17% 43%
Oct-09 2% -2%
40%
Jul-09 -22% -49%
20% Apr-09 -23% -60%
Jan-09 -20% -43%
0%
Oct-08 -12% -18%
‐20%

‐40%

‐60%
Jan‐73 Jan‐78 Jan‐83 Jan‐88 Jan‐93 Jan‐98 Jan‐03 Jan‐08

80%
BoC Commodity Average Food Price YoY
YoY Food Ind. Mat.
60% BoC Commodity Average Industrial Material Price YoY Apr-10 10% 40%
Jan-10 4% 23%
40% Oct-09 -5% 5%
Jul-09 -25% -20%
20% Apr-09 -21% -23%
Jan-09 -28% -17%
0% Oct-08 -15% -11%

‐20%

‐40%
Jan‐73 Jan‐78 Jan‐83 Jan‐88 Jan‐93 Jan‐98 Jan‐03 Jan‐08
Canadian Economic Data 22

Money Supply and Velocity

1,600,000
M3 M2 M1 Monetary Reserves
1,400,000
Reserves M1
1,200,000 Mar-10 57 490
1,000,000 Dec-09 54 475
Sep-09 58 462
800,000 Jun-09 45 442
600,000
M2 M3
400,000
Mar-10 974 1,333
200,000 Dec-09 963 1,313
0 Sep-09 957 1,307
Jun-09 933 1,296
Jan‐95 Jan‐98 Jan‐01 Jan‐04 Jan‐07 Jan‐10

40
35
30 YoY Reserves M1
25 Mar-10 30.2% 13.5%
20 Feb-10 32.8% 14.2%
15 Jan-10 33.3% 12.9%
10 Dec-09 23.9% 12.6%
5 Nov-09 35.7% 13.4%
0 Oct-09 35.8% 13.6%
‐5 Jul-09 6.5% 13.4%
‐10 Apr-09 -2.2% 13.4%
Monetary Reserves YoY M1 YoY
‐15
Jan‐95 Jan‐98 Jan‐01 Jan‐04 Jan‐07 Jan‐10

16

YoY M2 M3
12
Mar-10 6.7% 2.9%
Feb-10 7.8% 3.1%
8
Jan-10 8.0% 1.5%
Dec-09 9.3% 0.9%
4 Nov-09 11.0% 0.7%
Oct-09 12.6% 1.2%
0 Jul-09 14.7% 2.8%
Apr-09 14.6% 5.5%
M2 YoY M3 YoY
‐4
Jan‐95 Jan‐98 Jan‐01 Jan‐04 Jan‐07 Jan‐10

7 2.25

M3/M1 GDP/M3
6 2.00 Mar-10 2.72
Feb-10 2.74 -
5 1.75 Jan-10 2.75 1.18
Jan-09 3.04 1.21
Jan-08 3.15 1.30
4 1.50
Jan-07 3.02 1.37
Jan-06 3.03 1.47
3 1.25 Jan-05 3.02 1.46

Money Multiplier (M3/M1) Monetary Velocity (GDP/M3)
2 1.00
Jan‐70 Jan‐75 Jan‐80 Jan‐85 Jan‐90 Jan‐95 Jan‐00 Jan‐05 Jan‐10
Canadian Economic Data 23

Credit and Debt

3,000,000 18% Total YoY
Total Business and Household Credit NSA YoY Feb-10 2,623 4%
2,500,000 15% Nov-09 2,605 4%
Aug-09 2,567 4%
2,000,000 12% May-09 2,545 5%
Feb-09 2,533 6%
1,500,000 9% Nov-08 2,510 7%
Aug-08 2,474 7%
1,000,000 6% May-08 2,430 9%

500,000 3%

Household YoY
0 0%
Feb-10 1,420 8%
Jan‐69 Jan‐74 Jan‐79 Jan‐84 Jan‐89 Jan‐94 Jan‐99 Jan‐04 Jan‐09
Nov-09 1,401 8%
Aug-09 1,370 7%
1,500,000 25% May-09 1,335 7%
Mortgage Credit (NSA) Household Credit (NSA) Feb-09 1,316 9%
Household Credit (NSA) YoY Mortgage Credit (NSA) YoY Nov-08 1,299 10%
1,250,000 20%
Aug-08 1,281 12%
1,000,000 15% May-08 1,251 13%

750,000 10%
Mortgage YoY
500,000 5% Feb-10 970 7%
Nov-09 956 7%
250,000 0%
Aug-09 938 7%
May-09 916 7%
0 ‐5%
Feb-09 905 9%
Jan‐69 Jan‐74 Jan‐79 Jan‐84 Jan‐89 Jan‐94 Jan‐99 Jan‐04 Jan‐09
Nov-08 892 10%
Aug-08
g 878 11%
175% May-08 855 13%
Total Business and Household Credit NSA / GDP
Total
150% Jan-10 168%
Jan-09 161%
Jan-08 153%
125% Jan-07 148%
Jan-06 141%
Jan-05 140%
100%
Jan-04 139%

75%
Jan‐69 Jan‐74 Jan‐79 Jan‐84 Jan‐89 Jan‐94 Jan‐99 Jan‐04 Jan‐09

175%
Mortgage Credit (NSA) / Personal Income Household Credit (NSA) / Personal Income
150% Mortgage/PI Hhold/PI
Dec-09 116% 170%
125% Dec-08 108% 158%
Dec-07 103% 149%
100%
Dec-06 96% 140%
75% Dec-05 92% 136%
Dec-04 90% 131%
50% Dec-03 86% 125%

25%
Jan‐69 Jan‐74 Jan‐79 Jan‐84 Jan‐89 Jan‐94 Jan‐99 Jan‐04 Jan‐09
Canadian Economic Data 24

Government Finances
4 70
Budget Surplus (Deficit) / GDP Net Public Debt / GDP
2 60
Surplus/Def Debt
0 50 Dec-08 1.0% 32.3%
Dec-07 1.0% 32.3%
‐2 40
Dec-06 1.0% 35.0%
‐4 30 Dec-05 0.1% 38.3%
Dec-04 0.8% 40.9%
‐6 20 Dec-03 0.6% 43.8%
Dec-02 0.7% 46.2%
‐8 10

‐10 0
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

250,000
Budget Revenue Program Spending Operating Surplus
200,000
Revenue Spending
150,000
Dec-08 242 (199)
100,000
Dec-07 236 (188)
50,000 Dec-06 222 (175)
0 Dec-05 212 (176)
‐50,000 Dec-04 199 (154)
‐100,000 Dec-03 191 (147)
‐150,000 Dec-02 184 (136)
‐200,000
‐250,000
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

20,000
20 000
Fiscal Transactions Financial Requirements
10,000 Requirements
Dec-08 14,528
0 Dec-07 8,504
Dec-06 6,809
‐10,000 Dec-05 6,603
Dec-04 7,603
‐20,000 Dec-03 9,398
Dec-02 (72)
‐30,000

‐40,000
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09

2
1 Fiscal Transactions Financial Requirements / GDP
Requirements / GDP
0
Dec-08 0.6
‐1 Dec-07 0.6
‐2 Dec-06 0.5
‐3 Dec-05 0.5
‐4 Dec-04 0.6
Dec-03 0.8
‐5
Dec-02 -
‐6
‐7
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Canadian Economic Data 25

Leading Economic Indicators

5% 250
4% 3mth 12mth
3% 200 Apr-10 3.1% 10.9%
2% Mar-10 2.9% 8.9%
1% 150 Feb-10 3.0% 6.2%
Jan-10 3.3% 3.6%
0%
Oct-09 3.4% -2.4%
‐1% 100
Jul-09 0.8% -6.1%
‐2% Apr-09 -3.7% -6.3%
‐3% 50 Jan-09 -2.7% -2.8%
‐4% Oct-08 -0.6% -0.4%
3Mth Change in LEI STCA LEI
‐5% 0 Jul-08 0.6% 0.7%
Jun‐61 Jun‐66 Jun‐71 Jun‐76 Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06

Leading Economic Indicator Components

2.0 160
29,000 Durable New Orders Manufacturing Shipments Housing
150
27,000 1.9
140
25,000
1.8 130
23,000
120
21,000 1.7 110
19,000 100
1.6
17,000 90

15,000 1.5 80
Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07

3,500 10,500 250,000

Retail Trade: Other  M1 Money Supply
Retail Trade: Furniture & 
Retail Trade: Furniture & 10 000
10,000 Durables
3,000 Appliances 200,000
9,500
9,000
2,500 150,000
8,500
8,000
2,000 100,000
7,500

1,500 7,000 50,000

6,500
1,000 6,000 0
Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07

135 250 3,000

US Composite LEI Retail Trade Business & Personal Services
130
225
125
2,750
200
120

115
175
2,500
110
150
105

100 125 2,250

Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07 Dec‐98 Nov‐01 Nov‐04 Nov‐07
Canadian Economic Data 26

Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

80
BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey Overall Snr Loan Officer Survey
60 Mar-10 (19)
Tightening Dec-09 (9)
40 Sep-09 7
Jun-09 33
20
Mar-09 60
Dec-08 76
0
Sep-08 50

‐20

‐40
Easing
Jun‐99 Jun‐00 Jun‐01 Jun‐02 Jun‐03 Jun‐04 Jun‐05 Jun‐06 Jun‐07 Jun‐08 Jun‐09

Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

60 Future Expectations
Sales Employmt
40 Mar-10 44 38
Dec-09 49 40
Sep-09 53 27
20
Jun-09 39 22
Mar-09 (22) (1)
0 Dec-08 (34) (8)
Sep-08 3 28
‐20
Business Outlook Survey Future Sales Growth Balance
B.O.S. Future Employment Level Balance
‐40
Sep‐98 Sep‐99 Sep‐00 Sep‐01 Sep‐02 Sep‐03 Sep‐04 Sep‐05 Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09

60 B.O.S. Ability to Meet Demand Some Difficulty Difficutly Meeting Demand

B.O.S. Ability to Meet Demand Significant Difficulty Some Significant
50
Mar-10 26 4
Dec-09 26 3
40
Sep-09 17 5
Jun-09 25 3
30
Mar-09 29 1
Dec-08 29 7
20 Sep-08 36 11

10

0 Inflation Expectations
Sep‐98 Sep‐99 Sep‐00 Sep‐01 Sep‐02 Sep‐03 Sep‐04 Sep‐05 Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 2-3% 3%+
Mar-10 40 6
B.O.S. Inflation Expectations <1% B.O.S. Inflation Expectations 1‐2%
Dec-09 20 7
B.O.S. Inflation Expectations 2‐3% B.O.S. Inflation Expectations 3%+
100 Sep-09 34 11
Jun-09 35 4
80 Mar-09 15 4
Dec-08 22 3
60

40 1-2% <1%
Mar-10 54 -
20 Dec-09 61 12
Sep-09 49 6
0 Jun-09 49 12
Mar-09 37 44
Jun‐01 Jun‐02 Jun‐03 Jun‐04 Jun‐05 Jun‐06 Jun‐07 Jun‐08 Jun‐09
Dec-08 43 32