Comparison of Economic

Development in India, China and

ASEAN.

By
Mohan Guruswamy
Centre for Policy Alternatives
New Delhi
www.cpasind.com
 India, China, ASEAN and the World

  World India China ASEAN

Population (mn) 6237 1055 1288 542
GNP ($bn) 34,577 601 1417 686
Growth (%) 2.8 8.6 9.3 4.64

% of Global Pop. -- 17.0 21.0 9.0

% of Global GNP -- 1.73 4.09 1.98

Source: World Development Indicators 2005

India, China, ASEAN and “White World”

  Developed India China ASEAN

World*
Age Group % of 49.6 54.05 56.75 60.97
Pop. (15-49)
GNP ($bn) 25,272 601 1417 686
Per cap ($) 28,363 530 1100 1264

* USA, Europe & Russian Federation

Source: World Development Indicators 2005 & US Census
Bureau
 Basic Indicators of China, India &
ASEAN Countries
Country Population (mn) GNP (bn $) Per Capita GNP ($)
India 1055 601 530
China 1288 1417 1100
ASEAN 542 686 1264
Brunei 3.63 4.71 13,545
Cambodia 14.13 4.21 293
Indonesia 213.5 209.0 947
Laos 5.61 2.04 340
Malaysia 25.05 104.0 4,248
Myanmar 53.51 9.6 863
Philippines 81.1 79.27 992
Singapore 4.2 91.35 21,492
Thailand 63.95 143.3 2,275
Vietnam 81.2 39.02 486.01
Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic Surveillance Unit & International
Financial Statistics Yearbook 2004, IMF
 Economic Indicators 2003
Indicator India China ASEAN

GDP ($ bn) 601 1417 686

GNP per capita ($) 530 1100 1264

GNP in PPP 2880 4990 2014*

* Except Brunei & Myanmar
Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Statistical Outline of India
2004 – 05, TATA Economic Services & ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic
Surveillance Unit
 GDP Structure – Percent Share

Country Agriculture Industry Services Agriculture Industry Services

(1990) (1990) (1990) (2003) (2003) (2003)
India 31 28 41 23 26 52

China 27 42 31 15 53 32

ASEAN 22 32 46 21 31 48

Source: Statistical outline of India 2004-05, TATA Economic Services

& CIA Country Fact sheet
 Employment Break-up
Percent Share India China ASEAN

Agriculture 60.5 50 46.5

Industry 16.8 22 12

Services 22.7 28 41.5

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2000, NSS 55 th Round

Employment & Un-employment Survey 1999-00 &
ASEAN-Japan Centre Website
 GDP Growth Rates
Period India China ASEAN
1980s 5.7 10.3 6.0

1990s 5.9 10 7.3

2000 6.2 9.1 6.2
Onwards

Source: World Development Indicators 2005 &

US-ASEAN Business Council
 Energy Indicators – 2003
Indicators India China ASEAN

Electricity Production (bn Kwh) 577 1472 560

Electricity Consumption Per 365 893 712
capita (Kwh)
Oil Production (mn bbl/day) 0.78 3.4 2.6
Oil Consumption (mn bbl/day) 2.13 4.95 3.75

Source: Statistical Outline of India, 2004-05, CIA Factbook &

ASEAN Energy Centre
 Demographic Indicators 2003
Indicators India China ASEAN

Birth Rate (per 1000) 25 15 20

Death Rate (per 1000) 8 8 7

IMR (per 1000) 65 30 38

Life expectancy (Years) 65 71 67

Surface Area (‘000 sq. km.) 3278 9598 3635

Population Density (per sq km) 347 136 121

Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2004 & Statistical Outline of

India, 2004-05, TATA Economic Services
 Development Indicators 2002
Indicators India China ASEAN

Poverty ($1 a day) 35 17 11

Gini Index 37.8 40.3 35.04
Public exp. on health (% 5 6 11
of GDP)
Public exp. on education 4.1 2.9 17.4
(% of GDP)
Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Key
Indicators of Developing Asian & Pacific Countries, ADB,
2004
 Social Indicators
  India China ASEAN
Gross enrolment ratio in 99 114 87
primary schools (%)

Adult Literacy (%) 69 91 89

Labour cost per worker in 1192 729 152*-
Manufacturing ($ per year) 1638**

* Cambodia ** Indonesia
Source: Key Statistical indicators, Asian Development Bank 2004
 Prosperity Indicators -2002
Per 1000 pop. India China ASEAN

Tel. Landlines 40 167 45.5**

Cellular Lines 12 161 15.5*
PC’s 7 28 25**
TV Sets 83 350 166*

* Data Pertains to 2003, **Data Pertains to 2000

Source: Statistical Outline of India 2004-05, TATA

Economic Services & Asian Development Bank, 2001
 External Sectors of China, India
& ASEAN
Country Exports Imports Current Account Foreign
Balance reserves
ASEAN 466 383 57.2* 236

China 438 413 68.7 711**

India 55 70 -6.4 127

*Data of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore & Philippines

** not including Hong Kong ($122 bn.)

Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical

Outline of India 2004 -05 & The Economist August 27, 2005
 FDI Inflows (USD bn.)
Year India China ASEAN
1990 0.2 3.8 10.2
1991 0.1 4.4 12.8
1992 0.3 11.2 10.5
1993 0.6 27.5 12.1
1994 1.0 33.8 13.3
1995 2.1 35.8 17.9
1996 2.4 40.2 18.2
1997 3.6 44.2 18.3
1998 2.6 43.8 23.1
1999 2.2 38.8 28.7
2000 2.3 38.4 23.4
2001 3.4 46.9 19.6
2002 3.4 52.7 14.5
2003 4.3 53.5 19.1

Source: World Bank 2002 & Stat. Outline of

India, 2004-05, TATA Eco. Services
 Intra-flow of FDI between India,
China & ASEAN

Country Total FDI India > China India > ASEAN China > ASEAN
($bn) ($mn) ($mn) ($mn)

India 4.3 28.8 61.08 495

China 53.5 China > India ASEAN > India ASEAN > China

ASEAN 19.1 7.39 85 5885

*Data Pertains to 2002-03

Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI & ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta
 External Trade Value ($mn)
Description India China ASEAN
Global Trade 115 851 847
Global Export 53 438 456

Global Import 61 412 391

Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF

 India’s Trade with China &
ASEAN ($mn)

Description Total Trade Export Import

China 13,604 5927 7678

ASEAN 9769* 4619 5150

*Data Pertains to 2003

Source: Indo-china & Indo-ASEAN trade links,

www.economywatch.com
China’s Trade with ASEAN ($mn)

Total Trade 78,255

Export 30,928

Import 47,327

Source: Direction of Trade

Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF
Profile of India’s Trade with
China ($mn)
Trade Items Imports to Exports to
India China
Primary Products 452 1,799
Manufactured Goods 2,862 2,453
Pharma Products 253 71
Office Machineries 118 2
Telecom & Sound 430 2
Recording
Scientific Apparatus 34 2
Photographic, 55 4
Optical, Watches
Total 3,343 4,252
Source: India-China Trade, Win-win situation or zero
sum game, Ranade Sudhanshu, 16 th April 2005,
Business line
 Profile of India’s Trade with
ASEAN ($ mn)
Products Exports Products Imports
from India from ASEAN
Cereals 161.06 Animal & Vegetable Fats 1903.91 
Food Residues & 331.00 Mineral Fuels & Oils 226.46 
Animal Fodder
Mineral Fuel & Oils 1,185.22 Organic Chemicals 441.99 
Organic Chemicals 348.49 Wood Articles 505.07 
Cotton 123.17 Books & Scripts 134.55 
Manmade Filaments 136.00 Machinery & Appliances 1,127.80 
Precious Stones 415.74 Electrical Machinery 779.86 
Iron & Steel 390.44 Aircraft Parts 119.55 
Machinery & 298.52 Ships, Boats 279.68 
Appliances
Electrical Machinery 182.69 Ores, Slag & Ash 124.30 
Total Trade 5,821.74  Total Trade 7,433.16 
Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI, 2003-04
 Profile of China’s Trade with
ASEAN ($ mn)
Products Imports from Products Exports to
China China
Electrical Equipment 3240 Computer/Machinery 1940
Computer/Machinery 2440 Electrical Equipment 1710
Cereal 520 Lubricants/Fuels/Oil 1009
Lubricants/Fuels/Oil 430 Fats & Oil 520

Ships/Boats 300 Wood 510

Total 6900 Total 5770

Source: ASEAN Secretariat, www.aseansec.org

What the stars foretell?
India and China will grow faster than ASEAN
India-China economic engagement will grow much
more than India_ASEAN
ASEAN is more linked with China than India and will
continue to be so
Indian FDI mostly from developed country MNC’s
using it as a manufacturing hub. Eg. Ford, Suzuki,
Honda
India cannot compete for developed country
markets for manufactured goods till SEZ’s take-off
India and China will seek new trade links.