Likely Impact on the SELIC Rate (pp) from per Capita Incom Debt Rating Avg.

SELIC
Year Short Term Long Term Total 2008 10-yr. Avg. Estimate of Neutral rate
2010 1.80 3.42 5.22 2.00 3.61 13.00 9.4%
2011 0.62 4.82 5.44 2.00 3.72 12.50 8.8%
2012 0.47 6.75 7.22 2.50 4.86 12.00 7.1%
2013 0.51 4.40 4.91 2.50 3.71 11.45 7.7%
2014 0.55 4.02 4.57 2.75 3.66 10.90 7.2%
2015 0.65 3.24 3.89 2.95 3.42 10.35 6.9%
2016 0.03 4.06 4.09 3.15 3.62 9.80 6.2%
2017 0.37 3.69 4.06 3.35 3.71 9.25 5.5%
2018 0.10 3.01 3.11 3.55 3.33 8.70 5.4%
2019 0.30 2.38 2.68 3.75 3.22 8.15 4.9%
2020 -0.02 1.81 1.79 3.95 2.87 7.60 4.7%

FOCUS Survey Regla de Taylor para Brazil

GBM Model
 SELIC
Inflation Target Expected Inflation Diff. SELIC Rate
4.5% 4.5% ### 10.74%
4.0% 5.0% ### 11.67%
4.0% 4.5% ### 11.96%
4.0% 4.5% ### 11.09%
4.0% 4.5% ### 9.51%
4.0% 4.5% ### 9.23%
4.0% 4.0% ### 9.03%
3.5% 3.9% ### 8.93%
3.5% 3.8% ### 8.02%
3.5% 3.6% ### 7.35%
3.0% 3.4% ### 7.26%