Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nasa Risk Management
Nasa Risk Management
Michael A. Greenfield
Deputy Associate Administrator
Office of Safety and Mission Assurance
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
Outline
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
CONTROL
Note: Communication and Replan mitigations, close risks, invoke Risk decisions
documentation extend contingency plans, or track risks
throughout all of the functions. 7
Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
• Background
• FTA is a deductive analytical technique of reliability and
safety analyses and generally is used for complex dynamic
systems
• FTA provides an objective basis for analysis and justification
for changes and additions
• First developed by Bell Telephone in 1961 then modified by
Boeing for wide uses
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
OR
AND
Tire lacks
Spare tire
adequate
unavailable
inflation
OR OR
Blow- Cannot
Blow- Spare Spare
out - install spare
out due tire is tire is
road tire
to wear flat missing
damage
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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FMECA- A Bottoms-Up View to Design, Manufacture, Operations
Tire FMECA w ith Reeva luat ion of Ris ks
Part Name/ Potential Causes Risk Priority Rating Recommended Imp roved Rating
Part Failure (failure Effects
Corrective Action
Num ber Modes mechanism) Sev* Freq Det RPN Sev* Freq Det RPN
Cord Fiber 1. Weak Ply failure 4 3 8 96 Incom ing inspection 4 1 8 3
separation precursor
material
Carcass Disinte- 1. Poor tire Veh icle loss 9 2 9 162 Planned p eriodic 9 1 1 9
gration alig nment maintenance
*Severity ratin gs 8 to 10 request special effort in design improvement reg ardless of RPN ratin g 18
Mission Success Starts With Safety
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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PRA Supports Design Decisions
Ordinary Changing Spare tire is END STATES
tire stays tools are OK OK
(S=success; F=failure)
inflated
Tire S=0.05
rolls 0.05 S=52%
over 0.95 S=0.40
road 0.8 0.6
hazard 0.4 F=0.30
0.2 F=48%
F=0.19
Battery Dead
(1 X 10-3)
Lights OR
Batt.
Elec.
End of
Left Short
Life
On
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PRA Can Provide Quantitative Values for Failure and
Facilitate Ranking of Risk Drivers
Batt.
Dead Can recover
(1 X 10-3)* 0.1 0.5 0.8 (4 X 10-5)
Stuck (1 X 10-5)
0.2
Stuck (5 X 10-5)
0.5
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Space Shuttle Program Development Office
Reliability Sensitivities Analysis - Space Shuttle Ascent
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Mission Success Starts With Safety
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