b)

alternati w l expected
hold cam 3 -2 1
dont hol 0 0 0
prior pro 0.6 0.4
choose to hold campaign
c)
alternativas
hold cam 3 -2
dont hol 0 0
prior pro 0.6 0.4
max. Pay 3 0

expected payof with perfect info 1.3

EVPI=EP(con inf.perfecta)-EP(sin mas inf.)=1,8-1=800000

d)
Prior conditional joint Posterior
Probabiliprobabilities ProbabilitieProbabilities
P(state) P(finding|sta P(sate and P(state|finding)

0.75 0.45 0.818

win,given wi win and wi win given win
0.6 0.25 0.15 0.333
win lose,given wi win and loswin, given lose

0.25 0.1 0.182

win,given wi win and wi win given win
0.4 0.75 0.3 0.667
lose lose,given wi win and loswin, given lose

e)
data P(state|finding) State of nature
state of prior prob win lose
win 0.6 0.75 0.25
lose 0.4 0.25 0.75

0.55 hold campaign O win 2.9

predict win [] 0 0.818
1.99
hire william 0 dont hold campaign lose -2.1
1.0495 0 0.182

[] 0.45 hold campaign O win 2.9

1.0495 predict win [] 0 -0.435 0.182
-0.1 dont hold campaign lose -2.1
0 0

dont hire wil []

0 1