As of 8:15AM February 7, 2011

Morning Metals
Price LME
1,2
Price Change Change % Inventory Change Change % Lucas Litwiniuk, CFA
Aluminum $1.15 ($2,540) 0.01 0.6% 4,562,625 31,650 0.7% Global Commodity Strategy
Copper $4.60 ($10,145) 0.07 1.6% 393,525 -625 -0.2% Equity Research
Nickel $13.02 ($28,705) 0.29 2.2% 132,828 30 0.0% Tel: (416) 359-7680
Lead $1.20 ($2,645) 0.00 0.3% 289,400 125 0.0% lucas.litwiniuk@bmo.com
Zinc $1.14 ($2,508) 0.02 1.6% 710,075 0 0.0%
Gold ($/oz) $1,347 -0.50 0.0% na
Silver ($/oz) $29.21 0.30 1.0% na
Platinum ($/oz) $1,842 9.00 0.5% na
Palladium ($/oz) $818 6.00 0.7% na
Moly. (US$/lb.) $17.67 na na na
Cobalt (US$/lb) $19.75 $14 na na na
Uranium ($/lb)3 $73.00 na na na

Price (US$/lb) (US$/oz)

Aluminum Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Uranium
01/28/2011 1.11 4.35 12.17 1.15 1.04 1316 26.68 1790 803
01/31/2011 1.13 4.41 12.28 1.17 1.06 1334 27.75 1789 803
02/01/2011 1.15 4.46 12.54 1.19 1.09 1338 28.32 1808 820
02/02/2011 1.14 4.51 12.57 1.19 1.11 1337 28.27 1830 823
02/03/2011 1.14 4.51 12.60 1.20 1.11 1333 28.30 1826 809
02/04/2011 1.14 4.53 12.73 1.20 1.12 1348 28.91 1833 812 3.00
02/07/2011 1.15 4.60 13.02 1.20 1.14 1347 29.21 1842 818 73.00

LME Inventory (tonnes) Shanghai Inventory (tonnes, reported weekly)

Aluminum Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Aluminum Copper Zinc
01/28/2011 4,524,675 398,075 134,298 279,025 710,925 426,381 129,250 326,210
01/31/2011 4,521,225 394,025 134,040 279,925 710,675 " " "
02/01/2011 4,525,850 393,925 134,442 282,700 710,275 " " "
02/02/2011 4,525,550 393,775 134,172 284,850 710,075 " " "
02/03/2011 4,533,875 394,475 133,500 288,925 710,075 429,884 134,298 "
02/04/2011 4,530,975 394,150 132,798 289,275 710,075 " " "
02/07/2011 4,562,625 393,525 132,828 289,400 710,075 429,884 134,298 326,210

NOTES: 3,503 5,048 0

1
LME Spot Prices Quoted At End Of Morning Session, Silver Fix at 12:00PM
2
Base Metals Quoted in US$/lb, Bracketed Figure is US$/tonne
3
Ux Weekly

LME Inventories
Aluminum Copper

5,000,000 1.2 550,000 4.8

Price (rhs)
1.1 500,000 4.3
4,500,000
1.0 450,000 3.8

4,000,000 400,000 3.3

0.9 Price (rhs)

0.8 350,000 2.8

3,500,000

0.7 300,000 LME Inventory 2.3

(lhs)
3,000,000
LME Inventory 0.6 250,000 1.8
(lhs)
2,500,000 0.5 200,000 1.3
02/09 05/09 09/09 12/09 03/10 07/10 10/10 02/11 02/09 05/09 09/09 12/09 03/10 07/10 10/10 02/11

Nickel Zinc

180,000 14 750,000 1.3

160,000 Price (rhs) 12 650,000 1.1

140,000 10 550,000 0.9

Price (rhs)

120,000 8 450,000 0.7

LME Inventory
100,000 6 350,000 0.5
(lhs)
LME Inventory
(lhs)
80,000 4 250,000 0.3
01/09 05/09 08/09 12/09 03/10 06/10 10/10 01/11 01/09 05/09 08/09 12/09 03/10 06/10 10/10 01/11

Source: Bloomberg
 Metals Mining Research
Commodity Price Assumptions

Quarterly Forecast Annual Forecast Long

Q1/11E Q2/11E Q3/11E Q4/11E 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Term

Base Metals
Aluminum Price (US$/lb) $1.10 $1.10 $1.00 $1.00 $0.76 $0.99 $1.05 $1.05 $1.10 $1.10 $1.15 $1.15
Copper Price (US$/lb) $4.70 $4.70 $4.30 $4.30 $2.34 $3.42 $4.50 $4.20 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.50
Nickel Price (US$/lb) $11.00 $11.00 $10.00 $10.00 $6.65 $9.91 $10.50 $10.00 $9.50 $8.50 $8.50 $8.50
Zinc Price (US$/lb) $1.15 $1.15 $1.05 $1.05 $0.75 $0.98 $1.10 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00
Lead Price (US$/lb) $1.20 $1.20 $1.10 $1.10 $0.78 $0.97 $1.15 $1.00 $0.90 $0.90 $0.90 $0.90
Molybdenum Price (US$/lb) $17.00 $17.00 $16.00 $16.00 $11.53 $15.94 $16.50 $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 $14.00 $14.00
Cobalt Price (US$/lb) $20.00 $20.00 $18.00 $18.00 $17.35 $20.58 $19.00 $15.00 $15.00 $15.00 $15.00 $15.00

Bulk Commodities
Hamersley Fines (US¢/dmtu) (1) $254 $254 $210 $210 97 223 210 176 160 145 129 139
(2)
Vale S. System Fines (US¢/dmtu) $239 $239 $195 $195 85 202 195 155 139 123 107 115
IOC Pellets (US$/t) $213 $213 $185 $185 $73 $168 $185 $150 $135 $119 $105 $113
BMA Hard Coking Coal (US$/t) $225 $300 $300 $255 $129 $191 $270 $225 $190 $175 $152 $150
Newcastle Thermal Coal (US$/t) $107 $107 $115 $115 $72 $98 $115 $100 $90 $85 $85 $92

Precious Metals
Gold Price (US$/oz) $1,450 $1,450 $1,450 $1,450 $972 $1,224 $1,450 $1,400 $1,250 $1,100 $1,000 $1,000
Silver Price (US$/oz) $32.00 $32.00 $28.00 $28.00 $14.63 $20.16 $30.00 $27.00 $23.00 $19.00 $17.50 $17.50
Platinum Price (US$/oz) $1,850 $1,850 $1,850 $1,850 $1,204 $1,611 $1,850 $1,850 $1,850 $1,650 $1,550 $1,550
Palladium Price (US$/oz) $800 $800 $800 $800 $263 $527 $800 $740 $691 $628 $450 $450

Energy
West Texas (US$/B) $88.00 $86.00 $88.00 $90.00 $61.96 $79.59 $88.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00
Edmonton Light (C$/B) $85.28 $84.26 $86.29 $89.30 $66.39 $77.52 $86.29 $89.34 $89.85 $89.85 $89.85 $89.85
WTI - Bow River Heavy Diff. (US$/bbl) $16.72 $15.48 $15.84 $17.10 $8.78 $13.46 $16.28 $18.00 $18.00 $19.80 $19.80 $19.80
AECO Natural Gas (C$/mcf) $3.96 $3.45 $3.96 $4.06 $3.98 $3.98 $3.86 $3.96 $4.47 $4.47 $4.47 $4.47
Henry Hub Nat Gas (US$/mcf) $4.50 $4.00 $4.50 $4.60 $4.17 $4.39 $4.40 $4.50 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00
Uranium (US$/lb) $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $46.66 $46.76 $60.00 $60.00 $70.00 $70.00 $60.00 $60.00

Chemicals
NH3 (NOLA, US$/st ) $453 $383 $339 $412 $252 $416 $397 $390
Urea (NOLA, US$/st) $389 $336 $317 $362 $271 $311 $351 $345
DAP (NOLA, US$/st) $546 $527 $518 $519 $286 $457 $528 $505
Potash (Vancouver US$/t) $350 $365 $375 $385 $596 $318 $370 $420 $450 $450
Methanol (US$/gal.) N/A N/A N/A N/A $0.74 $0.96 $1.00 $1.02

Forest Products
Lumber (Western S.P.F. , MFBM) N/A N/A N/A N/A $182 $253 $241 $240 $260 $260
Pulp (US$/t) N/A N/A N/A N/A $653 $914 $825 $820 $800 $750
Newsprint (US$/t) N/A N/A N/A N/A $553 $581 $630 $639 $640 $650
Linerboard N/A N/A N/A N/A $515 $560 $625 $640 $650 $640
Coated Paper (No. 5, 40 lb.) N/A N/A N/A N/A $821 $803 $870 $880 $850 $820
Uncoated Free Sheet (Forms Bond) N/A N/A N/A N/A $911 $931 $900 $895 $900 $900

(1) 62.5% Fe
(2) 64% Fe
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg