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What is a Fragile State

What is a Fragile State

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Published by Andy Sumner
Definitions and lists of fragile states
Definitions and lists of fragile states

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Published by: Andy Sumner on Feb 22, 2011
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What is a FCAS (Fragile and Conflict-affected State? Table 1.

Key differences between FCAS lists
FCAS Index/List Carleton University World Bank’s Country Country Indicators for Policy and Institutional Foreign Policy project Assessments List (CPIA) Definition Assessment of basic CPIA divide low-income used for security within borders, countries into five fragile and basic social needs and/or categories, the lowest two conflictthe political legitimacy to of which are fragile states affected effectively represent their who have a CPIA rating of citizens at home or abroad. 3.2 or less. There is a Fragile states lack the separate group of unranked functional authority to countries, also deemed provide basic security fragile. List excludes within their borders, the MICs. Defined as fragile institutional capacity to state if it is LIC, IDAprovide basic social needs eligible, with CPIA score for populations and/or of 3.2 or below. Core political legitimacy to fragile is CPIA below 3.0, effectively represent marginal if between 3.2 citizens at home and and 3.0. abroad. Broad areas Economic: recent Governance: freedom of Economic management: covered in economic growth; quality press; government macroeconomic indicators of existing policies; effectiveness;perception of management; fiscal policy; used in conducive to private sector level of corruption; level debt policy. constructing development; degree of of democracy; refugees Structural policies: trade; index equitable income hosted; restrictions on civil financial sector; business distribution. liberty; rule of law. regulatory environment. Political: quality of Economic: GDP growth; Policies for social institutions; extent to percentage GDP per inclusion/equity: gender which citizens accept capita; total GDP; FDI; equality; equity of public legitimacy of government; foreign aid, inequality; gini resource use; building government accountability coefficient; inflation; human resources; social to citizens; rule of law; informal economy; protection & labour; extent of corruption; unemployment; women in policies & institutions for democratisation; freedom labour force. environmental of expression/association; Security & Crime: conflict sustainability. ability of state intensity; human rights; Public sector management bureaucracy. Security: military expenditure; & institutions: property ability of state to provide political stability; refugees rights & rule-based physical security for produced; terrorism. government; quality of citizens. Measures: Human development: budgetary/financial occurrence & intensity of access to water/sanitation; management; efficiency of violent conflict or residual education; food security; revenue mobilisation; effects (e.g. population health infrastructure; quality of public admin; displacements); illegal prevalence of HIV/AIDS; transparency/accountability seizure of political power; HDI; literacy. and corruption in public perceptions of political Demography: life sector. instability; territory expectancy; migration; affected by political population instability & statedensity/diversity; sponsored violence & population growth; slum human rights abuses. population. Social welfare: how well Environment: arable/fertile state meets basic needs land; consumption of including nutrition, health, energy; disaster risk index; education & access to pollution; change in annual clean water/sanitation. percentage of forest cover. Sources: Brookings Index: www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/02_weak_states_index.aspx; World Bank CPIA: The Brookings Index of State Weakness in the Developing World Fragile states are those countries where there is ‘occurrence & intensity of violent conflict or its residual effects (e.g. population displacement), illegal seizure of political power, perceptions of political instability, territory affected by conflict & state-sponsored political violence & gross human rights abuses.’ Bottom two quintiles of rankings are FCAS

www.worldbank.org; Carleton CFIP: www.carleton.ca/cifp Note: There is also the Foreign Policy/Fund for Peace ‘Failed States Index’. This assesses extremities – e.g. loss of physical control of territory. It is composed of 12 indicators. See www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings

Table 2. Comparison of FCAS lists (bold indicates countries common to all 3 lists)
The Brookings Index of State Weakness in the Developing World 2008 28 countries Afghanistan Angola Burma Burundi Central Afr. Rep. Chad Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Iraq Liberia Nepal Niger Nigeria North Korea Rwanda Sierra Leone Somalia Sudan Togo Uganda Zimbabwe Carleton University Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project (CIFP) 2008 30 countries Afghanistan Angola Burundi Central Afr. Rep. Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Iraq Kenya Liberia Myanmar (Burma) Nepal Nigeria Pakistan Sierra Leone Somalia Sudan Togo Uganda West Bank and Gaza Yemen, Rep. Zimbabwe World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessments List (CPIA) 2008 32 countries Afghanistan Angola Burundi Cameroon Central Afr. Rep. Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Eritrea Gambia, The Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Kiribati Pakistan Papua New Guinea Sao Tome And Principe Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Sudan Tajikistan Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Yemen, Rep. Zimbabwe Plus Unrated: Liberia Myanmar Somalia Aggregated list (all 3 lists) used in OECD (2010) 43 countries

Afghanistan Angola Burundi Cameroon Central Afr. Rep. Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia, The Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Iraq Kenya Kiribati Liberia Myanmar Nepal Niger Nigeria North Korea Pakistan Papua New Guinea Rwanda Sao Tome And Principe Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia Sudan Tajikistan Timor-Leste Togo Tonga Uganda West Bank and Gaza Yemen, Rep. Zimbabwe Sources: Brookings Index: www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/02_weak_states_index.aspx; World Bank CPIA: www.worldbank.org; Carleton CIFP: www.carleton.ca/cifp/ Note: Thanks to Dan Coppard, Development Initiatives.

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